Coming Civil Wars in Europe?

Will Collier and Stephen Green, reacting to reports of rising tides of Muslim immigrants in Western Europe, envision some worst-case scenarios.

Will doesn’t think the natives will defend themselves :

Lots will go to Canada, I would guess particularly the Scandinavians, and plenty more will go to Australia. But the majority will be drawn right here to the USA. After all, we’ve got more room, more money, more opportunities–and most importantly, we’re the most able to protect our own. Not unlike their ancestors’ cousins of past centuries, the majority of those who give up on Europe will come here.

And then what? What will we do with them? More interestingly, what will they do to us? Will the ‘blue states’ fill up with UNphilic Euro-refugees and get bluer? Or will the refugees, haven been driven from their homes by radical Islam, lean more towards the ‘red’ Scots-Irish motto of nemo me impune lacessit?

Stephen notes that the Europeans have a long history as warriors but that legacy may be lost:

Thanks to modern Europe finally putting “ain’t gonna study war no more” into nearly full effect, they hardly have any battle-hardened soldiers. They hardly have any soldiers left at all.

The city fighting we’d see in Europe would look like what we saw in Sarajevo ten years ago. You know, ragtag bands of men with no uniforms, stolen weapons, and a desire to kill anybody who looked Muslim (or on the Muslim side, European). Holland and Denmark would fare worst. They’re both tiny, both have very high (and increasing) Muslim populations, and neither country has much of a modern military tradition. In this worst-case scenario, the likelihood of ethnic mob rule ala Bosnia seems high.

Want to take the worst-case a little further? Both countries border Germany, which might feel the very legitimate need to march in to restore Ordnung. I think we all know what usually happens once the Germans start goose-stepping through their smaller neighbors.

No, the result wouldn’t be World War III (or V?). But Europe could very well become Bosnia on a continental scale, with all the devastation, mass graves, and ethnic cleansing that implies. You can bet, at best, there would be a whole lot of people put at gunpoint onto refugee boats bound for North Africa and the Levant. Assuming, of course, the Europeans win in such a scenario. If not, the poor refugees would speak languages much like our own, and be bound for our own shores — just like Will suggested.

Interesting scenarios. It’s not quite clear to me, though, why war would be necessary. Presuming that the new majority-minorities have the right to vote, they would simply meld into the system, changing the modus vivendi in Europe. Would the indigenous Europeans be willing to fight an ethnic war to preserve their culture? Americans, which have been far more warlike in recent decades, haven’t shown any great alarm over the waves of illegal immigration that are helping to make Anglo-Europeans a minority. I can’t imagine that the Europeans would be more aggressive.

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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. Zed says:

    they would simply meld into the system

    and Europe is taking measures to make sure that happens with relative ease, the notion of such conflicts is absurd, might be why I don’t read vodkapundit.

  2. Zed says:

    this is a classic example of western alarmism (aka western confusion). A fragment of American society which has, thankfully, withered long ago.

  3. IR says:

    Looking too far down the road. The major split in Europe will occur as 11 countries prepare for referendum votes on the newly sewn European Union Contitution. Granted, I’m not saying that there will be anything near a “civil war” on these votes. However, it will, profoundly, place a wedge between the appeasers and the “sovereignors.” Once those sides are defined with clarity (and the referendum vote will do just that) you will see an emboldened opposition of open borders and appeasement towards the Muslim influx.

    In short, they really haven’t picked the teams yet. Once they do, European politics will get interesting…as will coming elections in select European nations…

  4. JakeV says:

    To me this sounds like fuzzy-headed Europe-bashing. I guess it could conceivably happen, but so could a lot of horrible and unlikely things. I think these “pundits” are plugging these scenarios not because they are plausible, but rather because they fit neatly with their particular sets of prejudices.

  5. jeff says:

    If I’m not mistaken, the Muslims and Serbs in Bosnia are ethnically identical – only the religion is different.
    Makes you wonder how they could discern “anybody who looked Muslim…”

    Clothing perhaps?

  6. whatever says:

    The reason Americans don’t worry about the flood of immigrants here is that they hold pretty much the same values – the immigrants are overwhelmingly Christian, don’t insist on putting in a theocracy in their new adopted country, and don’t go around killing those that disagree with them.

    All these can’t be said about the Muslim immigrants into Europe. They won’t just change the “modus vivendi” once they become a majority, they will put in some form of Sharia. Then watch the fireworks.

  7. Cybrludite says:

    The difference between Europe & the US on immigration is that here in the States, the immigrants assimilate into our political & economic culture. The only effect is that I can choose between Pho, Vindiloo, Chili Rellnos, Falafel, Gyros, or Pasta Alfredo for supper. The problem in Europe is that even when given the opertunity, the Muslim immigrants aren’t assimilating. In fact, the more dangerous & organized of them intend on assimilating Europe into the Dar Al Islam. This is a very different situation, and a very dangerous one at that.

  8. anjin-san says:

    It is said nature abhors a vacuum. I guess this is true. Now that we don’t have the Russians as an all-purpose bogeyman, we are replacing them with the evil muslims.

    Goverments need enemies. Fear is a wonderful tool. Civil rights being trimmed? We have enemies. Questionable wars? We must fight the enemy.

    No doubt the muslim world produces some evil men, and some of them are our enemies. All other parts of the world produce evil as well, I doubt the muslims have any more then their share.

    Its nothing we have not seen before. Those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

  9. Carsten says:

    Hi, first of all im from Denmark. ( which you can se at my lack of english ) It´s true that we´re having problems with defending our selfes, no doubt about that. If you have just have a small problem with the muslims, you are marked as a racist. Thats why poeople dont gather up. You cant fight a war when you have every single person against you, (JUST because its “the right thing to do/say”) stats say it all. There have been about 50 stats about our crime in copenhagen. All say that 82% of the crime was made by muslims / foreing people. And I se it myself every day. Danes are fed up with muslims. They are taking more and more control every day. Denmark is not what it used to be anymore. DK is not a safe place anymore, as it always have been. BUT, I dont think we will imigrate to other countries, just like that. We will stay. We´re not just gonna flee. The danes will soon rise, and I dont think its too late.