Conservative Bloggers Polled on 2006 Election

John Hawkins polled a large number of conservative bloggers on the 2006 election (I was asked but didn’t participate) and got some interesting results.

1) Do you think the GOP is going to retain control of the House?

Yes (38) — 61.3%
No (24) — 38.7%

According to all the reputable polling I’ve seen over the past couple of weeks, the Republicans are going to lose at least 20 seats. Yet, for some reason, there is still a sense among a large number of conservatives that the polling is simply wrong. I’m afraid they’ll be sadly disappointed come election night.

2) Do you think the GOP is going to retain control of the Senate?

Yes (56) — 90.3%
No (6) — 9.7%

Here, they’re in synch with the polls. Of course, given their answers to the first question, it’s coincidental.

On the following question, bloggers were allowed to make anywhere from 1-6 unranked selections from 25 different options that were presented. Their answers come after the question with the number of bloggers selecting each choice in parentheses and the percentage of bloggers picking each answer following that.

3) The Republican Party has been having a lot of difficulty during this election cycle. If you had to pick 1-6 reasons for that, what would they be?

Top Tier Issues

W) The way the war in Iraq has gone. (48) — 77.4%
P) The GOP isn’t doing enough to control spending. (46) — 74.2%
K) Republicans don’t fight back hard enough against Democratic attacks. (37) — 59.7%
D) Because the GOP is perceived as being too soft on illegal immigration. (32) — 51.6%
S) The perception that the GOP is corrupt. (32) — 51.6%
J) President Bush’s approval rating. (21) — 33.9%
O) The GOP isn’t being aggressive enough in the war on terror. (19) — 30.6%
R) The perception that the Federal Government did a poor job of handling Hurricane Katrina. (19) — 30.6%
V) The Mark Foley scandal. (17) — 27.4%

Aside from choice J) being rather odd–Bush’s approval ratings are a symptom, not a cause, of Republican “difficulty”–nothing too surprising here about the choices. The rankings are somewhat more controversial.

The Iraq War is, without question, far and away the biggest issue this cycle. Indeed, that spending is rated almost as high is bizarre. Among fiscal conservatives, though, it’s a major reason why enthusiasm is so low.

FILED UNDER: Blogosphere, Campaign 2006, Public Opinion Polls, , , , , ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is a Security Studies professor at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Triumph says:

    John Hawkins polled a large number of conservative bloggers on the 2006 election (I was asked but didn’t participate) and got some interesting results.

    These results are meaningless. This isn’t a “poll.” There is no random sampling.




    0



    0
  2. Cernig says:

    Hi James,

    1) Do you think the GOP is going to retain control of the House?

    Yes (38) — 61.3%
    No (24) — 38.7%

    It’s interesting, in the light of this, to read John Cole’s post today (said post is attracting a LOT of attention today):

    What makes this even more frustrating is that not only do I feel like I have been duped, but I established a lot of friends in the right wing of the blogging community- and now I read their pages and I can’t believe what I am reading, even though I know that five years ago I probably would have been saying the same or similar things. I know many of them as people- and not just GOP parrots- having spent time working on collaborative projects with them, serving on the editorial board at Red State, appearing on radio shows with them- you name it. I have, at one point in time, defended many of them from what I perceived to be unfair attacks. So I know that by and large they are not bad people (Dan Riehl is an unmitigated asshole, however). Yet I read their pages now, and through my eyes, it looks like they are so divorced from reality it makes me question what, if anything, I ever believed in.

    In short, it really sucks looking around at the wreckage that is my party and realizing that the only decent thing to do is to pull the plug on them (or help). I am not really having any fun attacking my old friends- but I don’t know how else to respond when people call decent men like Jim Webb a pervert for no other reason than to win an election. I don’t know how to deal with people who think savaging a man with Parkinson’s for electoral gain is appropriate election-year discourse. I don’t know how to react to people who think that calling anyone who disagrees with them on Iraq a “terrorist-enabler” than to swing back. I don’t know how to react to people who think that media reports of party hacks in the administration overruling scientists on issues like global warming, endangered species, intelligent design, prescription drugs, etc., are signs of… liberal media bias.

    And it makes me mad. I still think of myself as a Republican- but I think the whole party has been hijacked by frauds and religionists and crooks and liars and corporate shills, and it frustrates me to no end to see my former friends enabling them, and I wonder ‘Why can’t they see what I see?” I don’t think I am crazy, I don’t think my beliefs have changed radically, and I don’t think I have been (as suggested by others) brainwashed by my commentariat.

    …And I don’t know why my friends on the right still keep fighting for these guys to stay in power. Why do they keep attacking decent people like Jim Webb- to keep this corrupt lot of fools in office? Why can’t they just admit they were sold a bill of goods and start over? Why do they want to remain in power, but without any principles? Are tax cuts that important? What is gained by keeping troops in harms way with no clear plan for victory? With no desire to change course? With our guys dying every day in what looks to be for no real good reason? Why?

    Loyalty over substance, John.

    Regards, C




    0



    0
  3. James Joyner says:

    Triumph: I find the results interesting, not because they constitute a scientific poll–they don’t–but for reasons Cernig points to in his Cole quote. People are clearly drinking the Kool Aid here despite all evidence to the contrary.




    0



    0
  4. McGehee says:

    I don’t know how else to respond when people call decent men like Jim Webb a pervert for no other reason than to win an election.

    Wait a minute. Let me get this straight.

    John Cole somehow had this crazy idea, once upon a time, that politics brings out the better angels of people’s nature?

    And it’s everybody else who’s drinking the Kool-Aid?




    0



    0
  5. cian says:

    K) Republicans don’t fight back hard enough against Democratic attacks. (37) — 59.7%

    Tells you everything you need to know about conservative bloggers.




    0



    0
  6. James Joyner says:

    cian: I ignored that one because that’s what partisans ALWAYS say. See almost any of the popular Democrat blogs, like kos or myDD, for example, for the exact same argument in the other direction.




    0



    0
  7. Dave Schuler says:

    Republicans will hold the Senate. I think the House is too close to call.

    Take the Illinois 6th and 8th Congressional Districts. Both are in areas that are traditionally Republican strongholds but one seat is currently held by a Democrat (it’s complicated) and the other is Henry Hyde’s old seat i.e. it’s been in the Republican column. Polls in both districts are within the margin of error.

    The net result of these races could be: Democrats net 1 (pick up one, retain one), status quo (Dems win one, lose one—the most likely outcome IMO), or Republicans net 1 (retain Hyde’s seat, pick up one). I suspect that’s the case in a lot of places.




    0



    0