Conservative Bloggers Polled on 2006 Election
John Hawkins polled a large number of conservative bloggers on the 2006 election (I was asked but didn’t participate) and got some interesting results.
1) Do you think the GOP is going to retain control of the House?
Yes (38) — 61.3%
No (24) — 38.7%
According to all the reputable polling I’ve seen over the past couple of weeks, the Republicans are going to lose at least 20 seats. Yet, for some reason, there is still a sense among a large number of conservatives that the polling is simply wrong. I’m afraid they’ll be sadly disappointed come election night.
2) Do you think the GOP is going to retain control of the Senate?
Yes (56) — 90.3%
No (6) — 9.7%
Here, they’re in synch with the polls. Of course, given their answers to the first question, it’s coincidental.
On the following question, bloggers were allowed to make anywhere from 1-6 unranked selections from 25 different options that were presented. Their answers come after the question with the number of bloggers selecting each choice in parentheses and the percentage of bloggers picking each answer following that.
3) The Republican Party has been having a lot of difficulty during this election cycle. If you had to pick 1-6 reasons for that, what would they be?
Top Tier Issues
W) The way the war in Iraq has gone. (48) — 77.4%
P) The GOP isn’t doing enough to control spending. (46) — 74.2%
K) Republicans don’t fight back hard enough against Democratic attacks. (37) — 59.7%
D) Because the GOP is perceived as being too soft on illegal immigration. (32) — 51.6%
S) The perception that the GOP is corrupt. (32) — 51.6%
J) President Bush’s approval rating. (21) — 33.9%
O) The GOP isn’t being aggressive enough in the war on terror. (19) — 30.6%
R) The perception that the Federal Government did a poor job of handling Hurricane Katrina. (19) — 30.6%
V) The Mark Foley scandal. (17) — 27.4%
Aside from choice J) being rather odd–Bush’s approval ratings are a symptom, not a cause, of Republican “difficulty”–nothing too surprising here about the choices. The rankings are somewhat more controversial.
The Iraq War is, without question, far and away the biggest issue this cycle. Indeed, that spending is rated almost as high is bizarre. Among fiscal conservatives, though, it’s a major reason why enthusiasm is so low.
These results are meaningless. This isn’t a “poll.” There is no random sampling.
Hi James,
It’s interesting, in the light of this, to read John Cole’s post today (said post is attracting a LOT of attention today):
Loyalty over substance, John.
Regards, C
Triumph: I find the results interesting, not because they constitute a scientific poll–they don’t–but for reasons Cernig points to in his Cole quote. People are clearly drinking the Kool Aid here despite all evidence to the contrary.
Wait a minute. Let me get this straight.
John Cole somehow had this crazy idea, once upon a time, that politics brings out the better angels of people’s nature?
And it’s everybody else who’s drinking the Kool-Aid?
Tells you everything you need to know about conservative bloggers.
cian: I ignored that one because that’s what partisans ALWAYS say. See almost any of the popular Democrat blogs, like kos or myDD, for example, for the exact same argument in the other direction.
Republicans will hold the Senate. I think the House is too close to call.
Take the Illinois 6th and 8th Congressional Districts. Both are in areas that are traditionally Republican strongholds but one seat is currently held by a Democrat (it’s complicated) and the other is Henry Hyde’s old seat i.e. it’s been in the Republican column. Polls in both districts are within the margin of error.
The net result of these races could be: Democrats net 1 (pick up one, retain one), status quo (Dems win one, lose one—the most likely outcome IMO), or Republicans net 1 (retain Hyde’s seat, pick up one). I suspect that’s the case in a lot of places.