George Allen Post-Mortem
J. Thomas cites the following data as evidence (as if any were needed) that George Allen ran one awful campaign:
|
Republican incumbant – District
|
2004 %
|
2006 %
|
Allen 2006 %
|
| Davis – VA01 |
78%
|
63%
|
54%
|
| Drake – VA02 |
55%
|
51%
|
51%
|
| Forbes – VA04 |
64%
|
76% (no dem)
|
54%
|
| Good – VA05 |
63%
|
59%
|
53%
|
| Goodlatte – VA06 |
96% (uo)
|
75% (no dem)
|
58%
|
| Cantor – VA07 |
75%
|
63%
|
56%
|
| Wolf – VA10 |
63%
|
57%
|
48%
|
Via email, his colleague Justin Hart notes that, “With the exception of Thelma Drake (R – VA02) who eked out a win, every single Republican incumbent in Virginia won handily.” That’s true. Even throwing out the unopposed candidates in CDs 4 and 7, Allen got fewer votes than the Republican incumbents.
Of course, they also all got a smaller percentage of the vote–in some cases, decidedly so–than in the last go-round. That’s the real story, at least for the long haul.
In addition to running a woeful campaign, facing a Reagan SECNAV war hero, and an anti-Republican backlash nationwide, Allen had another obstacle that may have trumped all of them: Virginia is becoming Bluer by the day. The DC suburbs and exurbs of Northern Virginia are growing by leaps and bounds, now comprising more than a third of the Commonwealth’s residents and much more than that of the tax revenue. This is a trend likely to continue.
Tom Davis is the 11th District. I should know as I’m in it.
True that. Quite odd.
Allen throws a pass, thanks god, kisses wife, kisses John Warner, concedes! (His wife is hot, by the way.)
Tom Davis may be in VA11 but JoAnn Davis, no relation as far as I know, represents VA01. I believe that’s who James was referring to
Also, I believe that Allen actually lost in Tom Davis’s district despite the fact that the Republican Congressman won.
I actually think the person who should look closely at those results is Webb. He won the election because he ran as a Clinton style moderate/center left type candidate. Virginia certainly did reject Allen (and I think Allen’s campaign is a great example of how to not run one, the only guy who could run a campaign as bad as Allen and still win would be Kerry or Kennedy in Massachussette’s where they are perpetucally appointed by the voters of Massachussettes)-but they weren’t jumping on board the “reject the GOP” train to the extent that others were.
This seems to indicate that VA isn’t on board with a left leaning liberal agenda. Webb needs to actually deliver as the candidate he purported to be, or his term may be limited to six years.