George Allen Post-Mortem

J. Thomas cites the following data as evidence (as if any were needed) that George Allen ran one awful campaign:

Republican incumbant – District
2004 %
2006 %
Allen 2006 %
Davis – VA01
Drake – VA02
Forbes – VA04
76% (no dem)
Good – VA05
Goodlatte – VA06
96% (uo)
75% (no dem)
Cantor – VA07
Wolf – VA10

Via email, his colleague Justin Hart notes that, “With the exception of Thelma Drake (R – VA02) who eked out a win, every single Republican incumbent in Virginia won handily.” That’s true. Even throwing out the unopposed candidates in CDs 4 and 7, Allen got fewer votes than the Republican incumbents.

Of course, they also all got a smaller percentage of the vote–in some cases, decidedly so–than in the last go-round. That’s the real story, at least for the long haul.

In addition to running a woeful campaign, facing a Reagan SECNAV war hero, and an anti-Republican backlash nationwide, Allen had another obstacle that may have trumped all of them: Virginia is becoming Bluer by the day. The DC suburbs and exurbs of Northern Virginia are growing by leaps and bounds, now comprising more than a third of the Commonwealth’s residents and much more than that of the tax revenue. This is a trend likely to continue.

FILED UNDER: 2006 Election, , , ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. DC Loser says:

    Tom Davis is the 11th District. I should know as I’m in it.

  2. James Joyner says:

    True that. Quite odd.

  3. Triumph says:

    Allen throws a pass, thanks god, kisses wife, kisses John Warner, concedes! (His wife is hot, by the way.)

  4. Tom Davis may be in VA11 but JoAnn Davis, no relation as far as I know, represents VA01. I believe that’s who James was referring to

  5. Also, I believe that Allen actually lost in Tom Davis’s district despite the fact that the Republican Congressman won.

  6. just me says:

    I actually think the person who should look closely at those results is Webb. He won the election because he ran as a Clinton style moderate/center left type candidate. Virginia certainly did reject Allen (and I think Allen’s campaign is a great example of how to not run one, the only guy who could run a campaign as bad as Allen and still win would be Kerry or Kennedy in Massachussette’s where they are perpetucally appointed by the voters of Massachussettes)-but they weren’t jumping on board the “reject the GOP” train to the extent that others were.

    This seems to indicate that VA isn’t on board with a left leaning liberal agenda. Webb needs to actually deliver as the candidate he purported to be, or his term may be limited to six years.