George Allen Post-Mortem

J. Thomas cites the following data as evidence (as if any were needed) that George Allen ran one awful campaign:

Republican incumbant – District
2004 %
2006 %
Allen 2006 %
Davis – VA01
78%
63%
54%
Drake – VA02
55%
51%
51%
Forbes – VA04
64%
76% (no dem)
54%
Good – VA05
63%
59%
53%
Goodlatte – VA06
96% (uo)
75% (no dem)
58%
Cantor – VA07
75%
63%
56%
Wolf – VA10
63%
57%
48%

Via email, his colleague Justin Hart notes that, “With the exception of Thelma Drake (R – VA02) who eked out a win, every single Republican incumbent in Virginia won handily.” That’s true. Even throwing out the unopposed candidates in CDs 4 and 7, Allen got fewer votes than the Republican incumbents.

Of course, they also all got a smaller percentage of the vote–in some cases, decidedly so–than in the last go-round. That’s the real story, at least for the long haul.

In addition to running a woeful campaign, facing a Reagan SECNAV war hero, and an anti-Republican backlash nationwide, Allen had another obstacle that may have trumped all of them: Virginia is becoming Bluer by the day. The DC suburbs and exurbs of Northern Virginia are growing by leaps and bounds, now comprising more than a third of the Commonwealth’s residents and much more than that of the tax revenue. This is a trend likely to continue.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2006, ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. DC Loser says:

    Tom Davis is the 11th District. I should know as I’m in it.

  2. James Joyner says:

    True that. Quite odd.

  3. Roundup…

    Allen conceeds…OTB has a postmortem Right Wing says the Gang of 14 came back to bite us… Blogs for Bush discusses the coming battle over minimum wage Polipundit notes that, due to the election results, amnesty for illegals is on……

  4. Triumph says:

    Allen throws a pass, thanks god, kisses wife, kisses John Warner, concedes! (His wife is hot, by the way.)

  5. Tom Davis may be in VA11 but JoAnn Davis, no relation as far as I know, represents VA01. I believe that’s who James was referring to

  6. Also, I believe that Allen actually lost in Tom Davis’s district despite the fact that the Republican Congressman won.

  7. just me says:

    I actually think the person who should look closely at those results is Webb. He won the election because he ran as a Clinton style moderate/center left type candidate. Virginia certainly did reject Allen (and I think Allen’s campaign is a great example of how to not run one, the only guy who could run a campaign as bad as Allen and still win would be Kerry or Kennedy in Massachussette’s where they are perpetucally appointed by the voters of Massachussettes)-but they weren’t jumping on board the “reject the GOP” train to the extent that others were.

    This seems to indicate that VA isn’t on board with a left leaning liberal agenda. Webb needs to actually deliver as the candidate he purported to be, or his term may be limited to six years.