North Korea Will Not Be Ignored

North Korea is to countries what Alex Forrest was to one-night stands. It will not be ignored:

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea warned Sunday that South Korea’s confrontational policies may trigger a war on the divided peninsula, a message coming two days after the communist country vowed to abandon all peace agreements with its southern neighbor.

Relations between the two Koreas have been strained since conservative President Lee Myung-bak took office nearly a year ago in Seoul, pledging to take a harder line on the North. Tension heightened Friday when the North said it was ditching a nonaggression pact and all other peace accords with South Korea.

The tension may lead to “an unavoidable military conflict and a war,” North Korea’s main Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in a commentary carried Sunday by the country’s official Korean Central News Agency.

“The policy of confrontation” by the South Korean government is “the very source of military conflicts and war” between the Koreas, it said.

The North has accused Lee’s government of preparing to stage a war, which South Korea denies. Earlier this month, the North’s military declared it adopted an “all-out confrontational posture” to defeat any

I find this completely baffling. The situation on the Korean peninsula is completely different from what it was 50 years ago. I suspect that South Korea could take North Korea in about a week. Is it credible that China would intervene on North Korea’s behalf? I don’t think so.

Are they trying to get a rise out of President Obama? Do they think that if they hold their breath until they turn blue that they’ll get what they want? Come to think of it that’s worked pretty well so far.

Meanwhile, I don’t think that South Korea should be surprised if it wakes up some morning and very bad things have happened to its household pet.

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Dave Schuler
About Dave Schuler
Over the years Dave Schuler has worked as a martial arts instructor, a handyman, a musician, a cook, and a translator. He's owned his own company for the last thirty years and has a post-graduate degree in his field. He comes from a family of politicians, teachers, and vaudeville entertainers. All-in-all a pretty good preparation for blogging. He has contributed to OTB since November 2006 but mostly writes at his own blog, The Glittering Eye, which he started in March 2004.

Comments

  1. just me says:

    I think this is an attempt to test Obama. Sort of like a child tests the baby sitter when the parents leave, NK is trying to feel Obama out and to see what they can and can’t get away with.

    I am not convinced China will do anything to protect North Korea if they get too stupid, but there is a lot N. Korea can do between playing nice and war.

  2. steve s says:

    I find this completely baffling. The situation on the Korean peninsula is completely different from what it was 50 years ago. I suspect that South Korea could take North Korea in about a week.

    Are you aware that Seoul, SC, home to 25 million people, is about 75 miles from North Korea, which has nukes and rockets?

  3. Daniel says:

    yeah, I second what steve s just said….. I am not sure what you are thinking of when you make that statement.

    I am more afraid of their artillery than the nukes (they have to deploy them, and I suspect between the CAP and ADA their chance of delivering anything by air (and that is the only chance other than smuggling… their tech doesn’t support artillery delivered devices) next to nil). But good god, they have a very scary ADA system themselves and a truly frightening amount of artillery, most of it very well dug in. This doesn’t even factor in that they most definitely have scary amounts of infiltrators in ROK…. The damage that they can do is very hard to calculate, in particular in a pre-emptive strike situation.

    And that doesn’t count the very defenses of the country itself…. that country is a warren of dug in defenses. ROK may be able to blunt an offensive, but they lack an effective counterpunch against NK.

  4. steve s says:

    Daniel knows more about the issue than I do. But I think we agree on the main point: ROK could win, probably, but the cost could be hideous.

  5. Staring In Disbelief says:

    I think that the NoKos military capabilities are grossly overestimated. What is known in unclassified sources comes mainly from superficial evidence or the Norks themselves. Any country that has as much trouble feeding its own people and watching them so closely as does North Korea is a stupendously brittle entity. So why would they be saber rattling? I think it signals yet another serious internal crisis that requires them to try to squeeze more aid money from South Korea and the West. It’s worked every time in the past. They rattle sabers and make wild threats that almost no other country would get away with and then we pay them off to keep quiet and behave. I think if the South or the US ever really called their bluff they’d collapse rather than lash out. I think they are a hollow scarecrow. Hell, even that much-ballyhooed nuke test sounded a lot like a fizzle (under-yield explosion) due to poor quality warhead construction. Sooner or later the South & China will realize that putting off the day of reckoning only increases the final cost of the inevitable breakdown, and that if they got together and managed it now it would be a lot better for all concerned.