Poll: Bush-Kerry Dead Heat in Michigan
Bush, Kerry In Dead Heat In Latest Michigan US Pres Poll (AP) [link not yet available]
The U.S. presidential race in Michigan has tightened again, with Democratic candidate Sen John Kerry, D-Mass, back in a near-tie with President Bush, according to a poll released Tuesday. In the poll, commissioned by the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics and conducted by Marketing Resource Group of Lansing, 45% of the 600 registered voters polled said they back Kerry, while 43% back Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader gets 1% and 11% are undecided. The poll was conducted Sept. 20-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
“It shows some movement by Bush in the last couple of weeks,” Inside Michigan Politics editor Bill Ballenger said. “I would have thought Bush would be getting killed right now … but he’s not.”
A poll conducted Sept. 15-19 by Lansing-based EPIC/MRA had Kerry at 48% and Bush at 44%, with Nader getting 2% and 6% undecided.
(via e-mail tip from Barry Ritholtz)
Update (1131): I’ve found a linked story via GoogleNews:
Heading into their first debate Thursday, neither President Bush nor U.S. Sen. John Kerry has made a convincing argument for Michigan voters despite dozens of appearances and millions in TV ad spending. A poll released Tuesday by Marketing Resource Group of Lansing finds Kerry and Bush essentially tied. The 45-43 percent Kerry lead is within the poll’s 4 percent margin of error. The survey mirrors a Sept. 15-19 poll by the Lansing firm EPIC-MRA that showed Kerry’s lead also within the margin of error.
Paul King, pollster for Marketing Resource Group, said the data show neither candidate has completed the sale yet with the election less than five weeks away. “You don’t see a groundswell of support for either,” he said. “That shows the support for either side may be a mile wide and an inch thick.”
Broken down by region, the MRG poll saw neither candidate breaking 50 percent in any part of the state. Bush is leading Kerry 47-40 percent in West Michigan despite repeated stops in the region from Traverse City to Niles since May. Likewise Kerry is leading Bush by 49-40 percent in metropolitan Detroit, a traditional Democratic stronghold.
Intriguing. Certainly, if Bush pulls out Michigan, he’ll win the election. Michigan was a Republican stronghold for years, going to the GOP in 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, and 1988. It has gone Democratic, though, in the last three elections.