Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, November 9, 2023
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30 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Did the Red Wave pass over yet? Just seeing if it’s safe to come out now. Bueller?
For the record…the failing US Punditry class obviously conflates “not popular” with “un-popular”.
Biden is the former because he’s old, boring, and not entertaining. Three things that have eff-all to do with being an effective Chief Executive and CINC.
The latter means you piss people off. It’s fair to say the only people Biden pisses off are people with a steady diet of RW Media. IOWs Republicans. Tuesday changes nothing. The Biden team still need to campaign for votes and translate their messages into Rural America speak to shave off a few percent points in R+30 country. If their do that they will win.
The SAG-AFTRA strike is over.
I like this take from Josh Marshall:
“This gets at an element of the politics of the Dobbs decision that is both obvious and curiously absent from most of the mainstream conversation about it. The politics of the post-Dobbs backlash is not simply about abortion and the repeatedly stated belief of a clear electoral majority that access to abortion should be available as a matter of right. It’s also a bristling anger that an existing right, a longstanding status quo, was snatched away without legitimacy and against the wishes of a clear majority of voters. In that context Youngkin-esque 15 week bans just amount to the bank robber offering to hand back half of the cash stolen in the heist. The bank doesn’t just want its money back. They’re also upset about getting robbed. And the police are on the robbers’ tail anyway so they don’t need to negotiate. The cops, in this admittedly far flung analogy, are voters who’ve now shown consistently that they’ll shoot down anything short of a return to the Roe status quo ante.”
Republicans take away a long-standing right and expect the people to be thankful with they offer up a sliver of the freedoms that existed previously. People aren’t having it.
This says what we all know, but it does so very well:
http://www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/trump-liar/
ETA: It may be paywalled now; it wasn’t last night. If it is, I’m sorry.
I mean, I guess there has to be some way to break a tie but oof:
Bingo balls to determine winner of Rochester City Council seat if recount ends in tie again
Didn’t watch the debate last night but based on what I read this morning the Biden campaign should put out a Xitter or something that says: “I’m glad the Republican candidates have endorsed the Biden foreign policy.” Not 100% true but close enough. I would do it just for reaction.
TMI but need to vent
Today was medical good news and bad news day. Good news! Most likely not cancer but they still want to run some tests to verify. Bad news! Definitely surgery to remove a 15cm+ hemorrhagic mass from my side and they’re surprised I’m not in a lot of pain (which kinda freaked me out that they kept asking. Should I be??). Sitting here trying not to freak out or cry because I’ll likely be fine but….. the cost is going to be a problem as I’m still trying to settle my mom’s estate and I’ve got a ton of my finances tied up because of it. Seriously considering a GoFundMe which I never thought I’d have to do. The surgery is also very likely going to fall very close to the first anniversary of me finding her dead. Add in in the holidays and I’m more worried about how I’m going to deal with things then my actual health.
I know I’ve got it better then most people and this could be so, soooo much worse. But….. fuck the healthcare system where price is even a thing to worry about. Fuck that I don’t have my mom because of her stupid choices when I need support and comfort. Fuck the legal system for keeping me on hold for almost a year and making me feel like I can’t afford to live till it gives me back what’s mine
Thanks though for you guys for being here and providing a space I enjoy. Y’all are the best internet pals a girl can have
@KM: Vent away, any time you need to. And I’m so sorry you’re going through all of this.
If you do start a GoFundMe make sure to post the link here.
@KM: Stay strong. If you do a Go Fund me be sure to let us know, I don’t have much but I will give what I can.
@CSK: Pay walled now. Who are these people, thinking they should get paid for their work? The nerve of them!
@Jen:
Better way: each candidate gets 5 Plinko discs. Best score wins the seat.
@KM:
Everyone here is with you.
Sounds like you’ve got too much to process at the moment, maybe overwhelmed because multiple events are overlapping. That’s hard for anybody to deal with, but I’m glad you are grateful for the blessings you do have. And considering asking for help when/if you need it. Definitely post here if you do!
@KM:
Best wishes to you.
Reminds me to be thankful for our National Health Service.
Alex Shephard of The New Republic while saying the Democrats had a great day at the polls Tuesday, also writes-
And I agree. Biden will most likely lose next year even if Trump is convicted in one of the court cases he is involved in.
Sen. Manchin has just announced that he’s not running for reelection in WV, so that seat is an almost certain flip from D to R.
@Bill Jempty: See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Biden’s favorability is essentially the same as Trump’s. Both reflect little more than the nearly 100% hostility of the opposite party. Barring unforeseen events, the election will hinge on turnout. When am I going to see WAPO and FTFNYT analyses of how concerns about Trump’s age, legal problems, and obvious mental lapses are dragging down Republicans across the board?
@Jen:
Beat me to it. Do you think he struck some sort of deal?
Some nice commentary to lighten up the day, with apologies to toast.
The money quote is at the end.
Spoiler alert.
@gVOR10:
When most of the people at WAPO and FTFNYT stop being wealthy white men, with all the attendant biases and blind spots. So, never.
The press was wrong about Biden in the 2020 primaries, wrong about Biden in the 2022 midterms, and they’re still wrong. And populated with people too arrogant, self-important, and egotistical to wonder why they were wrong — which might prompt them to interview black people in churches and barber shops as much as they love to query white Trump voters in diners.
@Bill Jempty:
Just wait till Alex Shephard hears about what younger voters think of Trump and Republican foreign and domestic policy. He’s gonna be shocked.
Here’s how Benito can win, assuming his legal troubles don’t turn off too many voters (not talking of habitual GQP voters).
All he has to do* is promise to pass a law that allows abortion in all states and territories for 24 weeks, and past that only exceptions for rape, incest, and the health of the mother. This would defuse the Democrats’ most powerful issue.
He won’t do it (fingers crossed), because the first time he says it aloud, he will get booed at a rally. He stopped trying to talk up the COVID vaccines for that reason.
And also because there’s nothing mean or punitive in such a proposal. that’s not the Cheeto we know and loath.
*One should be highly skeptical of simple solutions to complex problems.
Well, Trump says Manchin isn’t running for re-election because Trump’s pick in the contest, Big Jim Justice, has such a “commanding lead” over Manchin.
@DK:
I don’t think the risk is that they vote Republican, but that they don’t vote at all or vote third party.
That said, I suspect this is less than meets the eye. My sense since 2016 (really, since 2000) is that the “Dems aren’t good enough for us” crowd is (a) heavily white (b) in any case, comprised mostly of people who have less skin in the game. It’s almost intrinsically a viewpoint taken from a position of privilege. Are people with relatives dying in Gaza really about to express their anger at Biden by backing Cornel West (or whomever), or choosing not to vote?
@KM: Wishing you more good news and less bad as you continue to juggle all the plates circumstance is throwing at you.
Warner has cancelled another movie for a tax write-off. This one was even closer to completion than Batgirl.
First, as John Oliver might say, who wouldn’t want to see a movie where Wile E Coyote pursues legal action against Acme?
Second, how long until some studio, not necessarily Warner, cancels some movie they claim is near completion, but hasn’t even shot a frame or even written a script? It sounds like something Bialystock & Bloom would try.
@Kathy: Having seen the list of live-action “stars,” count me as a “pass on this one,” though I do like the concept.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
One of the best movies ever, IMO, is Who Framed Roger Rabbit, largely for how it mixed animation and live action (and wasn’t about basketball).
Of course, I haven’t seen it in years. Maybe if I watched it now it would look fake and dated. This tends to happen with older FX heavy movies like SciFi movies.
It doesn’t matter, because no one will ever know whether Mr. Coyote prevailed in his lawsuit.
@Kathy:
When I saw it in the theater at age 11, it instantly became my favorite movie up to that point.
It isn’t. It’s held up remarkably well. Apart from a few moments (like when the gorilla carries Eddie Valiant and it looks like he’s suspended by wires), most of it’s still incredibly convincing. The way the cartoons interact with the live-action environment is basically seamless. And despite coming out at the brink of the CGI revolution, it doesn’t include any: every single frame is hand-drawn.
It also is a very rare instant where the various animation studios agreed to loan their characters to appear together with those from rival studios. It features a fight between Donald and Daffy, and a scene where Bugs and Mickey play a prank on Eddie Valiant. It’s probably the only thing along those lines we’ll see in our lifetime.
Of course the film isn’t just a technical marvel, it’s also extremely entertaining, especially for those (like me) who have an appreciation for the old Disney and Warner Bros. shorts, as well as being a decent throwback to ’40s private-eye thrillers. And it’s another example of Zemeckis’s attention to detail in recreating the past.
And apparently it was one of those films where an actor gets so into a role he experiences a literal mental breakdown. Bob Hoskins later said he was hallucinating cartoons for months after filming.
Okay, I’ll stop.
Green Party POTUS Candidate Jill Stein Flies To Wrong City
Oh, wait. That was 2016. Where is she today?
Jill Stein launches third-party 2024 presidential campaign, calling politics ‘broken’
“broken”
This is so original I think I’m going to barf.
@DK:
Wouldn’t that be reflected in polling now?