Tuesday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. OzarkHillbilly says:

    They couldn’t even scream any more. They were just sobbing’: the amateur investors ruined by the crypto crash

    Last year, Taleb revised his position in a paper that described bitcoin’s value as “zero”. “This is the first time we’ve seen a financial bubble coupled with religious, cult‑like behaviour and an investment strategy not seen before in history,” he says. Many demur – and Taleb could yet be proved wrong. A common defence of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is that the underlying technology, blockchain, has functions not yet discovered.

    Taleb says: “I would tell people who are still holding bitcoin: ask your grandmother if the idea makes sense. And if it doesn’t make sense to her, it doesn’t make sense … get out. Do something productive with your life.”

    But few in the cryptocurrency world are heeding the esteemed professor’s advice. Driksne plans to invest in cryptocurrency in the future, despite her six-figure loss, although she would steer clear of platforms such as Celsius. “I firmly believe crypto is the future,” agrees Vahid. “It’s not a Ponzi scheme or a scam.”

    He compares cryptocurrency to the early days of Amazon and Google. When I point out that they were growing businesses, unlike bitcoin, Vahid says: “But bitcoin replaces gold. Bitcoin is digital gold.” Taleb is exasperated by this line of reasoning. “If you buy gold and store it in your basement or wear it on your neck, there is no chance of that gold turning to lead over any foreseeable horizon,” says Taleb. “Metals don’t need maintenance. Bitcoin requires continuous maintenance.”

    It may be that future economists view the cryptocurrency boom of the early 2020s as a mass Dunning-Kruger event, fuelled by social media and facilitated by technology; an era in which amateurs took financial advice from fellow amateurs and bet the house on speculative investments. “Admitting that you know nothing just tells you that you’re lucky,” says Roy. “And my ego couldn’t handle that. I didn’t want to be lucky. I wanted to be someone who knew what they were doing. I’m smart, right? Tell me I’m smart, please? That’s how it goes. The whole community reinforced themselves, and each other.”

    When Taleb published his 2021 paper, he received so much abuse that he had to lock his Twitter account. “I could not believe how psychopathic bitcoin people were,” says Taleb. Watching his tormentors have their portfolios wiped out has provoked a degree of schadenfreude, he admits. But he has compassion for the inexperienced investors who got swept up in the hype. “Lots of these kids lost everything they have,” he says. “You feel empathy for them.” The scammers, who urged others to invest in doomed projects while they were secretly cashing out? “They must be punished,” Taleb says.

    But it seems likely that, just as in the 2008 financial crash, the bad-faith actors who exacerbated this meltdown will walk away unscathed.

    I have lived my life by the maxim that if it sounds too good to be true, it is. Because of that, I have passed up a number of opportunities to “get rich quick” that all turned to ash when the good times ended. And the good times always end.

    It’s hard to resist the urge to point and laugh, but real people lost a whole lot of money in this BS. Some lost their minds.

    15
  2. MarkedMan says:

    A couple of things I ran across yesterday, for anyone who is interested:

    A CDC ranking of firearm mortality state by state. It comes out as you would expect, with the gun nut states clustered on the wrong end, with the worst of them having rates above 20/100K (and yes, Mississippi and Alabama are in the bottom handful!), and the sane states clustered near the top, with NJ, CT, RI, NY, MA and HI all having rates a quarter or less of the worst states. (I picked 2017 numbers to match the next chart.)

    And here’s a different perspective, a 2017 analysis of the homicide rate by state, all methods. This one mixes it up a bit, with a few sane states mixed in with the gun nuts at the top of the chart, but the trend is pretty clear nonetheless. Crazy gun nut states = significantly higher homicide rate. Worth noting that New York has half the homicide rate that Texas does.

    5
  3. Sleeping Dog says:

    Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds

    By focusing on political payback inside his party instead of tending to wounds opened by his alarming attempts to cling to power after his 2020 defeat, Mr. Trump appears to have only deepened fault lines among Republicans during his yearlong revenge tour. A clear majority of primary voters under 35 years old, 64 percent, as well as 65 percent of those with at least a college degree — a leading indicator of political preferences inside the donor class — told pollsters they would vote against Mr. Trump in a presidential primary.

    Mr. Trump’s conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, appears to have contributed to the decline in his standing, including among a small but important segment of Republicans who could form the base of his opposition in a potential primary contest. While 75 percent of primary voters said Mr. Trump was “just exercising his right to contest the election,” nearly one in five said he “went so far that he threatened American democracy.”

    Overall, Mr. Trump maintains his primacy in the party: In a hypothetical matchup against five other potential Republican presidential rivals, 49 percent of primary voters said they would support him for a third nomination.

    Probably more significant is that a not an unimportant percentage of R voters would pull the lever for Joe in a rematch.

    The Times/Siena poll suggested that the fears of many Republican elites about a Trump candidacy may be well-founded: He trailed President Biden, 44 percent to 41 percent, in a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 contest, despite plummeting support for Mr. Biden, with voters nationwide giving him a perilously low 33 percent job-approval rating.

    A growing anyone-but-Trump vote inside the party contributed to Mr. Trump’s deficit, with 16 percent of Republicans saying that if he were the nominee they would support Mr. Biden, would back a third-party candidate, wouldn’t vote at all or remained unsure what they would do. That compared to 8 percent of Democrats who said they would similarly abandon Mr. Biden in a matchup with Mr. Trump.

    The conventional wisdom is that TFG’s musing to make an early announcement on running in 24 is an attempt to stymie any JoD actions against him, is likely mostly wrong. His real reason is to freeze the R primary field and rally as much MAGAt base support that he can.

    2
  4. CSK says:

    @Sleeping Dog:
    I agree with you that Trump’s real reason is to freeze the primary field.

    He probably believes he’ll be able to wriggle out of any problems created for him by the DOJ. After all, he’s gotten out of facing the consequences for any of his previous crimes. Why should this be different?

  5. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @MarkedMan: We’re #4! We’re #4! We’re #4!

    We’re #2 in the in the Murder Rate by State map. one.

    2
  6. Scott says:

    Fine with me. Do it.

    It’s time to start showing the videos of police shooting white people

    The fatal police shooting of Jayland Walker is the latest black man’s death that the Left hopes to exploit for political gain. Walker’s death has started the typical routine that the country goes through after a black man is killed by police: outrage, condemnation, and accusations of systemic racism.

    Despite the shootings that receive widespread media coverage, white people make up the demographic with the highest fatalities from police shootings — nearly twice as many white people are killed by police each year. It’s long past due for videos of fatal police shootings of white people to be shown with the same frequency and vigor as fatal police shootings of black people.

    6
  7. MarkedMan says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: (It felt very strange giving a thumbs up to your comment….)

    1
  8. MarkedMan says:

    @Scott:

    nearly twice as many white people are killed by police each year.

    I find statements like this a fascinating window onto the person making it. In the US there are either 4 times the number of white people vs black people or 6 times, depending on whether you count Hispanics as white. In either case the speaker is actually demonstrating the opposite of what he is trying to say, as blacks are either 2 or 3 times more likely to be killed by the police than whites. It makes you wonder if he is just ignorant and sloppy, or is he deliberately trying to mislead?

    8
  9. Mu Yixiao says:

    @MarkedMan:

    In either case the speaker is actually demonstrating the opposite of what he is trying to say, as blacks are either 2 or 3 times more likely to be killed by the police than whites. It makes you wonder if he is just ignorant and sloppy, or is he deliberately trying to mislead?

    It gets more complicated than that–as with the article from a while ago where NYC is “safer” because of fewer car deaths, while completely ignoring miles driven as a factor. In this case you have to look at number (and probably type) of interactions with police for whites and blacks.

    IIRC, blacks are more likely to “have interactions with” (i.e., get stopped by) police than whites. The real question is what is the rate/1k of a person being shot by police during an “interaction” based on race.

    I’m pretty sure it’s going to be much higher for blacks than for whites, but it’s not as simple as population size.

    3
  10. Scott says:

    @MarkedMan: Poor math skills aside, I would think the release of police shootings of lots of white people would not have the impact this author believes. Just the opposite.

    2
  11. DK says:

    @Scott:

    It’s long past due for videos of fatal police shootings of white people to be shown with the same frequency and vigor as fatal police shootings of black people.

    It has been mostly forgotten given all the bonkers stuff that’s happened since, but the video recorded Jan 2016 slaying of (white) Daniel Shaver did dominate one brief news cycle. BLM protested on his family’s behalf.

    I regularly think about poor Mr. Shaver. The video is absolutely sickening. He was crawling, crying, basically having a panic attack, begging for police not to shoot him. Obviously a threat to no one. Officers were giving him conflicted demands. He tried to pull up his pants, while crawling, and they murdered the guy.

    I still cannot believe no one was held accountable for this, it rivals the Elijah McClain and Ahmaud Arbery cases in pure fuckery (pardon, but there’s no other word).

    11
  12. MarkedMan says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    It gets more complicated than that–as with the article from a while ago where NYC is “safer” because of fewer car deaths, while completely ignoring miles driven as a factor.

    For the record, and not to restart the argument, I never got your logic here. In rural areas you have to drive more and so are more exposed to getting killed or injured in a car accident. NYC, where you need to drive or ride in a vehicle so much less, is absolutely safer, because of that.

    If you had a 1 in million chance of getting hit by a bus when you cross a given street, and one person had a job where they only crossed that street twice a day and another had a job that required them to cross that street 100 times a day, isn’t the second job objectively more dangerous? You are essentially saying they are equally dangerous because you have to factor out how many times they cross the street. Makes no sense.

    4
  13. MarkedMan says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    IIRC, blacks are more likely to “have interactions with” (i.e., get stopped by) police than whites. The real question is what is the rate/1k of a person being shot by police during an “interaction” based on race.

    And yet even more complicated, as there have been a number of studies showing that police in many areas pull over black motorists at a much higher rate than white ones, even when driving at the same speed. So simply dividing by interactions doesn’t really tell you anything about the racism of the local police force.

    2
  14. Jon says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    it’s not as simple as population size.

    Maybe, maybe not, but definitely not in the way you’re implying. Part of the reason why black people in America are more likely to be shot by police is precisely because they are more likely to “have interactions with” police. In the same way that it is wrong to say you have to look at miles driven in the NYC example. Part of why there is less vehicular-related death in NYC is because people in NYC on average drive much shorter distances than people in rural areas.

    ETA: Also too what MM said above.

  15. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @Mu Yixiao: Actually that’s not quite correct. Whites have exponentially more interactions with police. The fact that interactions with people of color yield more shootings and engagement with the legal system is the strongest evidence of systemic bias.

    9
  16. Sleeping Dog says:
  17. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @MarkedMan: Sure, that’s the academic case—which will fall flat in terms of driving anyone (but Academics) to desire change.

    What is the Political argument? How would Fox news cover this? You sic the Academics and Institutionalists on a problem AFTER winning the political argument. And yes, the winning Political argument will generate some level of White Anger across a broad swath.

    1
  18. Mu Yixiao says:

    @Jon:
    @MarkedMan:

    Maybe, maybe not, but definitely not in the way you’re implying. Part of the reason why black people in America are more likely to be shot by police is precisely because they are more likely to “have interactions with” police.

    As I stated in my previous comment,

    IIRC, blacks are more likely to “have interactions with” (i.e., get stopped by) police than whites.

    That is absolutely part of the formula. So to get a clearer picture you need to look at shots/interaction as a percentage of population. I was not implying anything different, though perhaps I didn’t word it clearly enough.

    Either way, it’s not as simple as “number shot/population” (as the linked post seems to be suggesting).

  19. Mu Yixiao says:

    @MarkedMan:

    In rural areas you have to drive more and so are more exposed to getting killed or injured in a car accident. NYC, where you need to drive or ride in a vehicle so much less, is absolutely safer, because of that.

    It’s twisting the data to suggest that “it’s safer to drive in NYC than Topeka because fewer people die”. That’s like suggesting that Syria is safer than New Zealand because fewer people get bitten by sharks and bird-eating spiders in Syria. 🙂

    When talking about risks, you have to look at more than simply raw numbers. According to deaths per million miles driven (which the metric that’s actually used to determine risk by the NHTSA) time spent in a car in NY is more dangerous than time spent in a car in Topeka.

    In this case, it’s not about how many blacks or whites are shot. It’s about likelihood of interaction (as a percentage of population) and likelihood of being shot as a percentage of interaction.

  20. charon says:

    @Scott:

    The videos of blacks getting shot that go viral are the ones where the shooting is egregiously inappropriate. So- how many whites that get shot are egregiously inappropriate should be the real comparison.

    2
  21. MarkedMan says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    It’s twisting the data to suggest that “it’s safer to drive in NYC than Topeka because fewer people die”.

    I concede that you are completely wedded to your logic despite the fact that it makes no sense to me whatsoever. So I give up.

    3
  22. Jon says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    It’s twisting the data to suggest that “it’s safer to drive in NYC than Topeka because fewer people die”

    The claim is not “it is safer to drive in NYC than Topeka”, rather the claim is that you are less likely to be the victim of a vehicular-related death in NYC, and that is at least partially because people in NYC drive less. The report was not about how safe or unsafe it is to drive in a given region in general.

    I was not implying anything different, though perhaps I didn’t word it clearly enough.

    My apologies for misunderstanding your point.

  23. Sleeping Dog says:

    Interesting piece by David French at the Atlantic.

    The Constitution Isn’t Working

    And this brings us back to the Supreme Court. An emerging Court majority is now highly skeptical of presidential power. Through a series of technical rulings grounded in both the Administrative Procedure Act and in the Constitution itself, the Court is imposing intense scrutiny on executive actions—such as the Trump administration’s attempt to repeal DACA and add a citizenship question to the 2020 census, the Biden administration’s OSHA vaccine mandate, and the Obama-era clean-power rule.

    On a pragmatic basis, a dangerous game is afoot. The Supreme Court is telling Congress, “If you want something done, you’ll have to do it yourself.” But what if Congress simply doesn’t do anything? What if it continues to place partisan imperatives over its institutional responsibilities? The Supreme Court can deny the president additional power, but it cannot force Congress to do its work.

    Indeed, if Congress continues to abdicate its fundamental constitutional obligations, it will cause even more degradation in the American body politic. Troubling gaps in law and policy will be left entirely unaddressed, and a less and less powerful president will be unable to alter the national course.

    Despite all this, however, the Court is constitutionally correct. It is not the role of the judicial branch to enlarge the power of the presidency merely because Congress has lapsed into partisan impotence. Ratifying the continued expansion of the administrative state would only enable Congress’s worst instincts and further damage American democracy.

    In retrospect, one wonders how the Founders could be so naive to not anticipate the development of partisanship?

    1
  24. Sleeping Dog says:

    A bit earlier we were going about our business at the house, when the Seabrook nuke evacuation warning system went off. Everyone continued to go about their business and a short time late word came that an emergency was declared inadvertently.

    3
  25. Mu Yixiao says:

    @Sleeping Dog:

    In small-town Wisconsin, we have tornado sirens that are tested on a regular basis*. When I was in China I heard a siren go off, and casually commented about testing the tornado siren.

    “No. That’s for air raids”. O_O

    =========
    In my town, it used to be used to call up the volunteer fire department (3 cycles) as well as warn of tornadoes (7 cycles), but they stopped the fire part.

    1
  26. Stormy Dragon says:

    If you buy gold and store it in your basement or wear it on your neck, there is no chance of that gold turning to lead over any foreseeable horizon

    So you say, and yet here I am with my entire Au-198 investment reduced to a worthless pool of Hg-198!

  27. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @MarkedMan: Heh. As I always say, “Tf the truth hurts, wear it.”

  28. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    They test the system here as well on a monthly basis. This isn’t the first time that the nuke plant has accidently set off their system. As the crow flies, I’m about 4 miles from the plant, so being able to glow in the dark is a real possibility.

  29. gVOR08 says:

    I’ve commented before that the heart of American Pragmatism is – don’t confuse the word with the thing. A corollary is – understand what the question is. This thread is like arguments about religion. “Religion is false.” “Religion is good.” Repeat ad infinitum, talking right past each other answering different questions. “Fewer people die in traffic accidents in NYC.” “Driving in NYC is more dangerous.” Different questions. I am NOT going to dig back and find the start of this, but my recollection is it was an article saying NYC is safer than Arkansas or wherever. Which it is.

    What’s the question? The writer of the Washington Examiner piece @Scott: linked thinks the question is, “Are cops racist assholes?” He believes showing video of police shootings would show that cops are not racist. Commenters above believe, IMHO correctly, that it would show cops are assholes. “Defund the Police” might gain more traction.

    As long as there have been cops, the cops have understood their job was to keep the lower orders in line. Being Black is an easy marker for a cop that you’re likely “bound by the law, but not protected”. But they’re just as happy to beat up on White Trash when they find them.

    2
  30. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Sleeping Dog:

    Despite all this, however, the Court is constitutionally correct. It is not the role of the judicial branch to enlarge the power of the presidency merely because Congress has lapsed into partisan impotence. Ratifying the continued expansion of the administrative state would only enable Congress’s worst instincts and further damage American democracy.

    And French is totally ignoring the fact that it was not the judiciary that enlarged the powers of the presidency, it was Congress itself. Time and again Congress has said, “We want this thing done. Here’s some money. Go figure out how to it Mr. President.”

    2
  31. gVOR08 says:

    @Stormy Dragon:

    and yet here I am with my entire Au-198 investment reduced to a worthless pool of Hg-198!

    And @Sleeping Dog: thinks he might glow in the dark.

  32. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @MarkedMan: Deliberately trying to mislead is where I go on the question. Either way, I’m happy with anything that will promote efforts to reduce police shootings of people of any racial extraction. And I’m still in the don’t point a gun at anyone you don’t intend to kill school.

  33. Sleeping Dog says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    I believe that French’s position is, Congress has intentionally delegated certain powers to the bureaucracy, which is OK, but the administration can’t claim additional power when Congress fails to act. While at the same time, the courts have no power to expand the powers of the bureaucracy as that is a function of Congress.

    The purpose of French’s article is to serve as a warning that if Congress continues to be derelict in its responsibilities and the court sets clear lines of demarcation as to what the administration can and can’t do, then the American system of government will collapse on itself.

    I believe that French is as pessimistic as I am that the petty partisanship that goes on in DC and in many state houses won’t be ending soon and the result will be we will lose our democracy.

    2
  34. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Sleeping Dog: “The Constitution Isn’t Working”

    Right wingers have been saying this for decades. It’s part of the draw for attracting a bunch of “impartial” RWNJs to form a convention to draw up a new constitution. Also going on for decades.

    1
  35. Kathy says:

    @Sleeping Dog:
    @Mu Yixiao:

    Mexico City and most of the metro area have a seismic alert system. It’s pretty good, and goes off between a couple of minutes and a few seconds before a quake hits (depending on the epicenter). It’s made up of speakers mounted on utility poles. A siren sounds followed by the words “seismic alert.”

    They do test it from time to time. When they do, they use a different sound, and it’s followed by the words “Test. This is a test.” This way people don’t panic, nor try to evacuate houses and buildings.

  36. MarkedMan says:

    @Jim Brown 32:

    Sure, that’s the academic case—which will fall flat in terms of driving anyone

    Oh, I wouldn’t recommend it for the battle to win hearts and minds, but I make my living trying to understand the complex ways real life systems can malfunction and I’m viewing the question, “Do the police kill more black people than white people” thought that lens. It’s a complex question. In absolute numbers? Definitely not. But if you look at per capita, then yes. But if you look at, per criminal, then…

    1
  37. CSK says:
  38. Kathy says:

    Accident and/or death rates by passenger mile can be a bit misleading.

    Commercial aviation is recognized as the safest means of travel per passenger mile. But the vast majority of accidents take place on landing, take off, climb-out, or approach. Accidents while at cruising altitude are very rare, yet most miles are accrued during this safest phase.

    Or take the Space Shuttle. It had two fatal accidents in 135 flights. Yet every mission traveled millions of miles in orbit. The death rate per passenger mile is absurdly low. And the accidents occurred during launch and re-entry, not coincidentally the most dangerous parts of each mission. That’s when lots of energy is applied to the vehicle.

    Car and bus travel is different. There’s no cruise, take off, landing, launch or reentry. There are portions at lower speeds and higher speeds. A fender-bender is at lower speeds, and typically causes little damage or injuries. Accidents are likely at both portions, but more dangerous at higher speeds.

  39. MarkedMan says:

    @Kathy: And don’t forget Russian roulette. It’s important to remember that whether you have 1 try or 50 tries, the odds of death are the same, because you have to divide by the number of tries.

    Just trying to be helpful…

  40. Kathy says:

    @MarkedMan:

    Suppose pilot A makes 3 60 minute round trip flights in one day between tow nearby cities. They will make six take offs and six landings, and fly for six hours.. Do they face the same risk as pilot B who makes one flight between two far away cities lasting six hours?

    Pilot B makes one take off and one landing. Both fly the same amount of time and roughly the same total distance.

    1
  41. Mu Yixiao says:

    From the BBC:

    The US-based Anti-Defamation League (ADL) has characterised the [Oath Keepers] as “a large but loosely organised collection of right-wing anti-government extremists” united in the belief that the US government has been “co-opted by a shadowy conspiracy that is trying to strip American citizens of their rights”.

    Yeah…. It’s called the GOP.

    6
  42. MarkedMan says:

    @Kathy: But Kathy, you have to account for whether it is a rural area or not. If it’s a rural area, then there will be a lot of short flights so there will be a lot more takeoffs and landings in a day, and so a pilot might have a whole bunch of them. Six, in the case you point out. Big cities have trains and busses and highways for the shorter flights, so the pilots flying out of there will tend to do one long flight instead of several smaller ones. Therefore it is obvious that if you go with something ridiculous, like likelihood of death, then the rural pilot is more likely to die. But we can’t have that. So we divide by the number of takeoffs and landings, which means that the rural pilot is less likely to die, the way god intended it. In fact, the safest pilot is the one who is involved in a fiery crash, because they have on less landing than all the others, while still having the same amount of flights.

    See? It just makes sense!

  43. Mu Yixiao says:

    @Kathy:

    Except airline accidents aren’t based on miles flown. They’re based on number of flights–for exactly that reason: getting an accurate risk assessment. The rate is “accidents per million flights” (the current 5-year floating rate–as of 2020–is 1.38, with a 95.7% survivability; pretty damn safe).

  44. JohnSF says:

    Meanwhile in Britain:
    the Conservative leadership contenders are down to eight after the MPs nominations are finished (20 nominations from 358 Con MPs total)
    Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Tom Tugendhat and Nadhim Zahawi.
    First round MP ballots tomorrow mid-day, when any any contender attracting fewer than 30 votes will be eliminated.
    Then further rounds with the lowest polling out each time.
    Once down to two, it goes to the party membership; scheduled for decision 5 September.

    My money would be on a Sunak vs Truss last two, with Truss winning because she has the combination of shamelessness, vanity, and stupidity required to sell “dream the impossible dream” to the wealthy and insular pensioners who are the backbone of the membership.

    Sunak is a Thatcherite Leaver, but at least he’s within telescope range of Planet Fiscal Reality, whereas the rest of the pack are peddling fantasies of small-state, tax cuts, and smiting the woke, while gambolling with the unicorns across the hills of fairyland.

    The UK faces an energy crisis, an urgent need for co-ordination with the EU states, major decisions re. defence spending, inflation at 10%, the pound is sliding, UK growth is poor, ordinary young people can barely afford housing, and Europe is experiencing its largest war since 1945.
    And the Conservative Party is fixated on woke ice cream, statues, and fantasy tax cuts for pensioners. Gahh!

    Meanwhile, the toad Johnson continues to squat in No.10.

    2
  45. Mu Yixiao says:

    Spooling down for the day. See you tomorrow (God willing and the creek don’t rise).

  46. Sleeping Dog says:

    @JohnSF:

    The Liz Truss that Anne Applebaum said this about?

    Oh, how I envy Liz Truss her opportunity! Oh, how I regret her utter failure to make use of it! For those who have never heard of her, Truss is the lightweight British foreign secretary who went to Moscow this week to tell her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, that his country should not invade Ukraine. This trip was not a success. At a glacial press conference he likened their conversation to “the mute” speaking with “the deaf”; later, he leaked the fact that she had confused some Russian regions with Ukrainian regions, to add a little insult to the general injury.

    Where’s Doonesbury’s feather when we need it.

    1
  47. Jay L Gischer says:

    I would like to simply note that as a guy who has lived in a major metropolitan area for the last 30 years, but who has also lived in rural America, I find the whole “Cities are DANGEROUS!!1!1” thing very tiresome. In the last 30 years, the most serious criminal act that has touched me is the theft of some video game cartridges by kids who were visiting my home, and some painted miniatures out of my car, which I suspect a different neighbor kid of.

    Yeah, that’s super dangerous.

    And yet, you can’t get some people to shut up about, “There’s so much crime in cities!!!”. I knew some of these people growing up, too, and I was skeptical about it then. Nothing has changed my mind.

    1
  48. CSK says:

    @JohnSF:
    You know, I’ve always found toads rather cute.

  49. Stormy Dragon says:

    @Jay L Gischer:

    From “The Adventure of the Copper Beeches” by Arthur Conan Doyle:

    By eleven o’clock the next day we were well upon our way to the old English capital. Holmes had been buried in the morning papers all the way down, but after we had passed the Hampshire border he threw them down and began to admire the scenery. It was an ideal spring day, a light blue sky, flecked with little fleecy white clouds drifting across from west to east. The sun was shining very brightly, and yet there was an exhilarating nip in the air, which set an edge to a man’s energy. All over the countryside, away to the rolling hills around Aldershot, the little red and grey roofs of the farm-steadings peeped out from amid the light green of the new foliage.

    “Are they not fresh and beautiful?” I cried with all the enthusiasm of a man fresh from the fogs of Baker Street.

    But Holmes shook his head gravely.

    “Do you know, Watson,” said he, “that it is one of the curses of a mind with a turn like mine that I must look at everything with reference to my own special subject. You look at these scattered houses, and you are impressed by their beauty. I look at them, and the only thought which comes to me is a feeling of their isolation and of the impunity with which crime may be committed there.”

    “Good heavens!” I cried. “Who would associate crime with these dear old homesteads?”

    “They always fill me with a certain horror. It is my belief, Watson, founded upon my experience, that the lowest and vilest alleys in London do not present a more dreadful record of sin than does the smiling and beautiful countryside.”

    “You horrify me!”

    “But the reason is very obvious. The pressure of public opinion can do in the town what the law cannot accomplish. There is no lane so vile that the scream of a tortured child, or the thud of a drunkard’s blow, does not beget sympathy and indignation among the neighbours, and then the whole machinery of justice is ever so close that a word of complaint can set it going, and there is but a step between the crime and the dock. But look at these lonely houses, each in its own fields, filled for the most part with poor ignorant folk who know little of the law. Think of the deeds of hellish cruelty, the hidden wickedness which may go on, year in, year out, in such places, and none the wiser.

    2
  50. JohnSF says:

    @CSK:

    I’ve always found toads rather cute.

    Fair enough.
    *edit*
    “…Johnson squats in No.10 like an un-cute squatting thing…”
    🙂

    1
  51. CSK says:

    @JohnSF:
    Better.

  52. CSK says:

    @DK:
    I agree, and add Tamir Rice to the list.

    1
  53. JohnSF says:

    @Sleeping Dog:
    Yep, that Liz Truss.

    And please believe me when I say that compared to eg Braverman, Badenoch, and Shapps she’s an intellectual heavyweight. 🙁

    Thing is, she’s spent the past couple of years assiduously cultivating the ERG, and the residual Johnson loyalists by promising them that she really, truly, believes in Tinkerbell.
    And is willing to bin the Northern Ireland Protocol to make her bones.

    Ironically, Sunak was actually a Leaver, albeit a relatively sane one, and Truss a Remainer, albeit largely out of ambition inspired loyalty to Cameron, IMO.
    Truss is a bit like Johnson: her policy courses tend to derive from the compass of her ambition.

    Dynamics of the race look like one it will boil down to one vaguely “realist” candidate, probably with majority of MP votes (most likely Sunak, perhaps Hunt or Javid, unlikely Tugendhat) and one with the votes of the ERG and the fantasy Thatcherites (most likely Truss, maybe Mordaunt or Zahawi, and please, oh lord, not Braverman or Badenoch).

    Then the fantasy-friendly candidate liable to scoop up the votes of the membership majority, I fear.
    Due to the demographics and opinions of the majority of that group, especially given likely influx of ex-UKIP types since 2016.

  54. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @MarkedMan: I am a technocrat myself. I solve no-shit problems where the right answer is often a sweet spot in multiple trade offs. People like us have a hard time understanding how most other people can’t evaluate the challenges of our day like an engineering problem. But yet they do.

    My broader point, not directed to you specifically, is that Democrats have, in addition to abandoning State Governance in many areas, have abandoned politics.

    If an emotional appeal can’t be made to a plumber in Kansas that unaccountable Cops are dangerous, we can never overcome these type issues. The data is enough for me…it’s not enough for the average voters. The age of Institutionalism is over…we will still have them of course..,but they will follow wherever the politics leads instead of vice versa.

    3
  55. Beth says:

    @JohnSF:

    Is Truss going to run her campaign on burying the Trans alive and tattooing a “28” on every queer’s forehead? Everything I’ve read about her, she strikes me as an abomination.

    @Jay L Gischer:

    I live on the Southside of Chicago and am white. When I tell people I live on the Southside their heads spin around and their eyes bug out. They act like I live in the middle of an active war zone. Where I live is actually 50% yuppies and queers and 50% second generation Chinese.

    I also like telling people I’d have no problem sending my kids to CPS. Half the time people just faint.

  56. wr says:

    @Mu Yixiao: “According to deaths per million miles driven (which the metric that’s actually used to determine risk by the NHTSA) time spent in a car in NY is more dangerous than time spent in a car in Topeka.”

    I don’t know how great the added risk is, but whatever the number it’s worth it.

    The only good reason to be in a car in a Topeka is to be driving the hell out of Kansas as fast as possible.

    5
  57. EddieInCA says:

    @Jay L Gischer:

    This!

    I’ve lived my entire life between NYC and Los Angeles. The places I’ve had to work for extended periods of time include Miami, Atlanta, Austin, Las Vegas, London, Vancouver, Paris, Chicago, Prague, and Mexico City. All major metropolitan areas. I’ve also worked in rural Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas. I’ve ALWAYS felt safer in cities. Why? Because racists with guns scare me much more than gangbangers with guns. I can walk down the street on the South Side of Chicago and not worry about anything, despite how “dangerous” that neighborhood might be, because the gangbangers aren’t really paying attention to a 60 year old guy walking down the street with groceries.

    I didn’t feel safe at all in Cedartown, GA or Hattiesburg, MS, both places where i spent months without ever going out at night. As of 2018, there were still “sundown towns” in Georgia and Mississippi, where locals warned me that my earrings and “liberal mannerisms” made me “stand out.”

    3
  58. EddieInCA says:

    @Beth: I should have read your post first Your life mirrors my experience.

    1
  59. EddieInCA says:

    @DK:

    The one that still angers me, and makes me tear up, is the death of John Crawford; minding his own business, talking on a cell phone, with a toy rifle in his hand picked up from a Walmart aisle, and shot to death by the police after that piece of shit Ronald Ritchie called 911 and flat out lied to the police about Crawford. Sickens me that Ritiche was never charged with anything, nor the police. It was a flat out execution.

    5
  60. wr says:

    @JohnSF: “Truss is a bit like Johnson: her policy courses tend to derive from the compass of her ambition.”

    Thank God we don’t have any people like that here!

    1
  61. Mister Bluster says:

    @CSK:..You know, I’ve always found toads rather cute.

    I found a small toad in the drivers seat of my car last week. I had just got off that drivers seat myself a few minutes earlier. I arrived at work, got out of the car went into the building and went right back out to the car opened the door and there was toad. Don’t know when toad jumped in the car. Toad jumped out of the car onto the parking lot. Bad move as cars were arriving to work. Had to chase and catch toad and deposit the amphibian into the bushes.
    Not familiar with toad pronouns so I call the creature toad.

    2
  62. JohnSF says:

    @Beth:
    What her personal views actually are, I have no idea.
    The thing is, she’ll say anything that gains favour with the membership.
    And if trans people must be sacrificed for her ambition, well that’s a such trivial detail is it not? (/snark)
    The same goes for most of them: see Mordaunt, Braverman, Sunak…
    It’s a Dutch auction of Tory member “common sense” talking points and prejudices.
    See also “woke” businesses, taxes, housing policy (or lack of),
    Mark my words, they’ll be getting on board scrapping net-zero CO2 by Friday, and press-ganging benefit claimants before September rolls around!

    OTHO some good news:
    Latest Savanta ComRes poll shows Labour Party now 15 points ahead:
    Lab 43%; Con 28%
    Poll of polls averages show Lab 40%
    That’s the sort of deficit any party struggles to come back from, especially as the economy is not looking up in the near future; upturn would need to be in place 12 months before latest viable poll date, Autumn 2024, for benefit to feed feed through to voting intention, IMO.

    Polling also indicates hardly anyone outside some Con membership and the fringe Right give a flying damn about “war on woke” when gas bills are looking to rise by thousands of pounds, incomes are stagnant, and other economic signals are flashing red.

    Also, Tory candidate promises, to membership and ERG, are going to be drag-anchors on what they need to do both in national interest and in Conservative Party interest to retain last election switch votes and Centrist/Remainer “incline conservative” types.

    In short: Tories 2024 = toast.

  63. JohnSF says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    I found a small toad in the drivers seat of my car last week

    Lucky he didn’t drive off in the car; sounds like the pronoun was Mr Toad!

  64. Gustopher says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    Except airline accidents aren’t based on miles flown. They’re based on number of flights–for exactly that reason: getting an accurate risk assessment. The rate is “accidents per million flights”

    I wouldn’t even want to measure risk based on car trips taken in NYC — the radically different infrastructure for moving people changes the entire equation too much.

    Deaths per Transit Trips, lumping bus, subway, taxi etc might be better, but even that undercounts because so many tings that are a vehicle trip elsewhere are just a walk (and the availability of things in walking distance increases those foot trips).

    (And then we need an estimate for deaths from communicable diseases that were contracted on mass transit.)

  65. Kathy says:

    Bad news, the cleaning lady assigned to our department came down with COVID. She got a booster of AZ the same day I got my fourth dose. Alas, we’ve not gotten word on the severity of her symptoms.

    By my count, out of 26 people in our shared office space, only 3 have not gotten COVID, myself included.

    Only four people wear masks regularly, but only one all day long: namely me.

    4
  66. JohnSF says:

    A possibly interesting item from news about Ukraine.
    (Or possibly not: it just tickled my erratic spidey sense.)
    Happened to come across this via a UK news comment:
    Analysis of a Ukrainian long range artillery strike on a Russian depot near Kherson.
    What struck me was not the attack itself; Ukraine forces are hitting a lot or rear supply/support targets.
    But the map.
    The black dot is the depot area hit.

    And this satellite image of the same general area.

    On the image, you can see the red markers of the fire detection, a canal heading south of them, and a barrage just north.

    Well, that is the canal that carries irrigation water to Crimea, and the barrage that creates the river reservoir that feeds said canal.
    Some may recall this irrigation water being mentioned as a potential motivator for the Russian securing the lower Dnipr River line.

    Well, looks like it might not be all that secure after all, should the Ukrainians choose to smack it.
    Oops.

  67. Mister Bluster says:

    @JohnSF:..Lucky he didn’t drive off in the car…
    Good thing I had the key to my Ford in my pocket.

  68. Mister Bluster says:

    Tapper and Bolton debate Trump’s ability to plan a coup
    Tapper: (referring to Trump) One doesn’t have to be brilliant to attempt a coup.
    Bolton: I disagree with that as somebody who has helped plan coup d’etat…it takes a lot of work…

  69. Beth says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    John Bolton is a wretched, disgusting human being, but his only redeeming quality is that he has negative chill. Does he even know the concepts of “tact” and “guile” exist?

    He’s like if you made a clone of Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld but removed all the genes for strategy, lying, and personality and replaced them with more evil.

    1
  70. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Stormy Dragon:

    There is no lane so vile that the scream of a tortured child, or the thud of a drunkard’s blow, does not beget sympathy and indignation among the neighbours, and then the whole machinery of justice is ever so close that a word of complaint can set it going…

    I’m torn between “that was then and this is now” and “Holmes clearly never lived in NYC.”

  71. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Mister Bluster: Every toad I’ve ever conversed with was comfortable with “it.”