Tuesday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. OzarkHillbilly says:
  2. Tony W says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: Roger Stone is a cheap, knock-off DC Comics villain.

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  3. OzarkHillbilly says:

    Mouse secretly filmed tidying man’s shed every night

    Watching the video, I couldn’t help laughing at the fastidious wee beast.

    @Tony W: Yep.

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  4. de stijl says:

    I woke up this morning and it was so beautiful outside. We’d gotten about 8 inches of snow so far (still coming down fairly hard), the wind had been fairly calm overnight, and all of the tree branches have a precarious four inch accumulation on top. It’s fractal. It’s really gorgeous!

    When it gets light enough I’m going to take a walk and take some pictures of it all before the wind picks up and knocks it all off.

    It’s officially a snow day. DMPS officially called it. Almost zero traffic. Snow days are awesome – no obligations, no I have to be at this place at that time, no nothing. Everything pauses. (Except for city snow plows.)

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  5. Kylopod says:

    @Tony W:

    Roger Stone is a cheap, knock-off DC Comics villain.

    The Penguin after losing weight.

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  6. MarkedMan says:

    Wife was at her book club last night so I did my usual and went all in on a red meat dinner. Got home too late to walk over to the butcher so decided to head over to one of our favorite neighborhood spots only to find it closed, and it’s not normally closed on Monday nights. Given the number of local spots that have given up I’m hoping it’s not closed closed. Continued my walk and ended up at another favorite neighborhood spot where I sat at the bar and had a great little steak topped with some kind of garlic herb butter. So good. And we are doing a dry January, which makes eating out a heckuva lot cheaper!

    G0tta love living in the city.

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  7. Joe says:

    @de stijl: It was snowing heavily here when I went to bed last night, but I woke up to cold rain and slush. The dogs were not particularly enamored of their walk.

    But the temperature is supposed to go in the tank over the weekend, so there’s that.

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  8. de stijl says:

    @MarkedMan:

    I really enjoy a neighborhood you can walk around in and get most if not all of your needs met without having to get in a car. That’s essential to me. It’s so soul satisfying. You feel connected to the world and your environs that differs greatly from the experience you get from just driving everywhere. It’s basic. A bit primal.

    As a general rule, if I can walk somewhere within 30 minutes (about a two mile radius), then I walk. I find it to be a much more satisfactory and fulfilling way to experience the world.

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  9. Scott says:

    @Joe: I’m impressed you got the dogs to even go. One of my precious little mutts absolutely balks at even the tiniest bit of moisture on his big paws. I have to pick up his tubby 50 lbs and toss him out and make sure he stays out until he goes. Otherwise, he would come back onto the covered porch and pee on the potted plants.

    As I’ve mentioned here before, I am astonished at the bladder capacity of dogs.

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  10. MarkedMan says:

    @de stijl: 100% in sync. Really hit home during the pandemic. Went for long, long walks with people all around (but not close!). Would take 3 or 4 hours and walk to Fort McHenry and wander around there, watching the ships go by or the park rangers hoisting the flags up and down.

    Did you know that if you buy a US flag in the gift shop at Fort McHenry, there are a couple of times a day when they will hoist it up for you? You can own a flag that has flown over Fort McHenry, on the same (restored) pole that flew the frickin’ Star Spangled Banner! How cool is that?!

    At the end of the day they re-hoist one of the huge flags and when they bring it back down they invite everyone around to help fold it, making sure it doesn’t touch the ground, and give some of the history while they do it. I always get a kick out of watching the people doing that, especially when they are foreigners. Unbelievable that the Banner survived that battle, heck that we won the Battle of Baltimore at all. Any of the battles, really, especially the naval ones. We never lost a naval battle to the most powerful navy in the world. How the heck did that happen!?

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  11. Michael Reynolds says:

    29 degrees here in Las Vegas. Incidentally, Las Vegas means the meadows, or the grassy plains. It was cold AF this morning as I walked the dogs through the stations of the cross – poop trash cans here in the community, and another one across the street at a casino. I stepped off a curb and hit ice. Ice! Here on the grassy plains of southern Nevada!

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  12. Michael Reynolds says:

    @MarkedMan:

    You can own a flag that has flown over Fort McHenry, on the same (restored) pole that flew the frickin’ Star Spangled Banner! How cool is that?!

    Oh yeah? Well, I happen to live within walking distance of Bonanza, the world’s largest souvenir shop. Can you buy a set of shot glasses with breasts on them in downtown Baltimore? Hah! I doubt it.

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  13. becca says:

    @de stijl: Kurt Vonnegut would walk to the newsstand near his home every morning to get the newspaper. His wife asked him why he didn’t just have it delivered. He explained that he enjoyed the interactions he had with random folks along the way. Why would he want to give that up just for convenience?

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  14. Mikey says:

    Have I mentioned yet today that the Michigan Wolverines defeated the Washington Huskies 34-13 last night to become the college football national champions? 🙂

    Who’s got it better than us? Nobody!

    GO BLUE!

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  15. Beth says:

    So, I went down a bit of a rabbit hole last night. I was on r/Abruptchaos last night and found what looked like a riot in a synagogue. All that I was able to find were basically these articles:

    https://collive.com/770-bochurim-breach-wall-to-prevent-tunnel-closure/
    https://collive.com/first-time-since-covid-nypd-shuts-down-main-shul-of-770/

    Best I could tell, one group of unmarried men belonging to one sect illegally dug a tunnel, to do something? and then they rioted when everyone tried to stop them. Seems they are lucky no one got killed.

    I was wondering if anyone here could give any context to this? It seems wild.

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  16. MarkedMan says:

    @Beth: Just a reminder that religious nutballs comes in all flavors…

    For those unfamiliar with the Lubavitch phenomenon, they are Orthodox Jews with a pretty vocal sub-cult who believe the Messiah came, but it wasn’t that carpenter boy 2000 years ago but rather this guy, who died in 1994 (OR DID HE???!!!)

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  17. Matt Bernius says:

    @Beth:
    I have been watching that too and it’s really wild. And I have yet to understand WHY the tunnel exists either–like what the goal was.

    https://x.com/FrumTikTok/status/1744495536462328078?s=20

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  18. Kylopod says:

    @MarkedMan: Contrary to popular belief, there have been a ton of figures throughout history whom a sect of Jews have come to believe is the Messiah. The only thing unique about Jesus is the size of the cult it inspired.

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  19. MarkedMan says:

    @Kylopod: Makes sense. On any given Tuesday you can find dozens of messianic cults operating, and I wouldn’t imagine any particular religious group would be immune.

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  20. Beth says:

    @MarkedMan:

    So many religious nutballs.

    Like, @Matt Bernius: , I couldn’t figure out what the tunnel was for. Like, was it because of what appears to be a property dispute between two competing (?) sub-sects? Some of the reading led me to think this was horny young men trying to get a secret passage to the women’s section. Maybe that’s uncharitable. I couldn’t tell, because on one hand this is a super local story about insular stuff, but on the other hand, NYC cops and firefighters were called to a riot. Like, swap in any other group and this story would be posted everywhere.

    I also didn’t understand filling in the tunnel with cement. Like, yeah, no tunnel, but if you ever need to fix a foundation or put up a new building, now you’re dealing with a giant underground cement blob. I had a friend working on a house. The prior house there had a deep foundation for whatever reason. The previous house was destroyed and they used the old house as backfill. Well, trying to remove a parking pad caused a chain reaction where pushing down on the parking pad caused a steel tub to push up the foundation of the new house. That was quite a disaster.

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  21. Kurtz says:

    @Mikey:

    Enjoy it for now, because it appears Harbaugh is going back to the NFL. Of course, the program he built can last past him. It’s not like it’s some out of nowhere success story. He just righted a very old ship.

    I know people are linking Harbaugh to the Chargers and Raiders. Former GM Randy Mueller thinks LAC would be an odd fit, but he also points out that he likely has some connections there from his time at USD. And he started his coaching career with the Raiders.

    I’m guessing that Atlanta makes a push for either Harbaugh or Belichick. Mostly because unlike the other teams who fired head coaches, no requests for interviews of assistant coaches have leaked. Maybe Blank truly didn’t decide to fire Smith until the disaster in New Orleans.

    But Blank indicated they would be taking their time to do it right. But that isn’t exactly a great idea if they are trying to hire someone like Ben Johnson from Detroit. The competition for that guy is going to be fierce.

    My guess is the Falcons already know who they want, but it’s one of those two guys because their present situations are more complicated.

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  22. de stijl says:

    @becca:

    The one carve-out I have to the two mile radius rule is for Target. It’s a mile and a half away, easily walkable. But Target has a magical ensorcelling field where if I walk through the doors I suddenly become extremely acquisitive – I go in wanting a three pack of boxer briefs and walk out with a cart full of stuff I did not plan on buying. One time I did walk there to test myself, my resolve, and about 20 minutes in I looked at the mass and weight of the stuff in my cart and decided screw it, I’ll call a taxi.

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  23. Gustopher says:

    @Matt Bernius: Twitter being a mess of QAnon, Nazis and QAnazis makes it very hard to be sure of anything. I’m really wary of trusting anything on a site that instantly brings up blood libel, etc.

    That said, here is a clip of a man purportedly escaping through one of the tunnels into the streets of New York. Navigating with the big hat is a learned skill, and I’m really impressed with this man’s ability.

    https://x.com/davincentjames/status/1744534452091650486?s=20

    Finding a copy that didn’t have someone suggesting that we bomb NYC because of Terror Tunnels, or shift to rats crawling out of storm drains was exactly as hard as expected.

    Top rate hat skills. Everything else about secret tunnels under a religious institution fills me with dread, but top rate hat skills.

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  24. MarkedMan says:

    So did Aaron Rodgers man up and apologize to Jimmy Kimmel for falsely accusing him of being a pedophile? No, no he did not. In fact, the way I read it, he simply said he never made the accusation because he was still waiting for concrete evidence.

    I’m not stupid enough to accuse of that with absolutely zero evidence, concrete evidence

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  25. Beth says:

    @Kurtz:

    My guess is the Falcons already know who they want, but it’s one of those two guys because their present situations are more complicated.

    I hope it’s a garage can with a face painted on and brooms for arms and legs. No reason why.

    #whodat!

    @Gustopher:

    I can’t tell you how bad I want this to be something objectively dumb and hilarious. Just a bunch of scamps, their tunnel and hilarity. Like, please please please don’t let this be actually dark and sinister. They are so lucky it didn’t collapse and kill anyone.

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  26. Michael Reynolds says:

    Not getting much attention, but there are some interesting nuggets in new polls.

    January 9:
    CNN/UNH: NH GOP Primary: Trump is up just 7 points over Haley. 39 to 32 and Christie has 12.
    US Today: NH GOP Primary: Trump 46, Haley 26, Christie 12.

    Morning Consult: Main event. Trump 42, Biden 43

    January 2:
    Economist/YouGov: Main event. Trump 44, Biden 44.

    January 2 and 9, both Morning Consult and Economist have Biden v. Trump as dead heats. A week before that, Yahoo also had it a tie. Other polls show Virginia safe for Biden and Nevada a dead heat.

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  27. Jen says:

    RE: the Lloyd Austin drama, he was apparently being treated for prostate cancer during his unexplained absence.

    […] The condition was disclosed by the Pentagon in a statement by John Maddox and Gregory Chesnut, doctors at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Md. They said that Austin, who is 70, was diagnosed with cancer in December after routine screening and underwent a “minimally invasive surgical procedure” known as a prostatectomy while under general anesthesia.

    While the cancer was detected early and his prognosis for it is excellent, the doctors said, Austin suffered complications that included nausea, and pain in the abdomen, hip and leg. He was diagnosed with a urinary tract infection, and additional evaluation determined abdominal fluids had impaired the function of his small intestines, prompting doctors to drain his stomach with a tube through his nose, the statement says. […]

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  28. Kylopod says:

    Donald Trump will win all 57 states in the primary. I’m sticking by that prediction.

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  29. just nutha says:

    @de stijl: That’s interesting; I almost never find anything at Target that I’m interested in buying. I usually only go there to buy gift cards for people I know who like to shop there or on occasions where I find that I want to get Klif bars. Sometimes I go there looking for booze because they have higher end products than the box store at which I buy groceries, but I haven’t bought liquor since last spring.

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  30. DK says:

    @MarkedMan: Breaking: Throw Rogan still a dumb twat.

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  31. Mikey says:

    @Kurtz: Yeah, it would be no surprise at all for Harbaugh to jump back to the NFL. Hopefully he won’t take Minter and Moore with him.

    As far as head coaching jobs, the Commanders are looking for someone too…and his brother is just up the road in Baltimore.

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  32. gVOR10 says:

    Via commenter Klasskalmen at WAPO, a video with more than you wanted to know about 737 door plugs: https://youtu.be/maLBGFYl9_o?si=lb7tsEwl8ijfUzI-

    The door is secured by four bolts. The video says the plugs, and securing bolts, would have been installed by Boeing. The video says the A/C in question was only delivered a couple months ago.

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  33. Kathy says:

    @gVOR10:

    United reported finding loose bolts on some door plugs…

    On other news, TL;DR Peregrine is toast.

    On other things, we’re getting some Extra Hell Week. I won’t go through the whole story, but the gist is the government agency did not publish what products it wants on its request for proposals. Then when they did we had a very short time to ask for numerous corrections on product sizes.

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  34. MarkedMan says:

    @Jen: I get that he is a private guy and I respect that. But keeping the procedure secret for so long was like throwing chum into shark infested waters.

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  35. MarkedMan says:

    @DK:

    Throw Rogan

    Took me a minute, but it was worth it 😉

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  36. Kurtz says:

    @Beth:

    I hope it’s a garage can with a face painted on and brooms for arms and legs. No reason why.

    #whodat!

    Ewwwwww. I like New Orleans, but loathe the Saints. Scoring TDs out of victory formation is classless.

    Though I will say, I felt bad for Dennis Allen. Not a fan of Arthur Smith at all and I understood why he was mad, but he didn’t even give Allen a chance to explain. Plus, I thought Allen handled all of the fallout well.

    Jimmy Graham may want to consider retirement. The Falcons defense might be happy to do it for him next year

    Notes on Smith: I did feel a bit bad for him during his last press conference. It seemed like he knew he was getting fired. And he seems to be good to the players even if he mishandled Ridder. But I’m glad he’s gone–he definitely justified my initial reservations when they hired him.

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  37. DK says:

    @Mikey:

    Who’s got it better than us? Nobody!

    GO BLUE!

    My college roommate went to Michigan law. Had to mute the group text this morning.

    Insufferable! Lol

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  38. de stijl says:

    Crap! I have an earworm. A pretty big/hard one. And it’s from a really annoying song, too. It just happens once or twice a year for me. I know earworms can be contagious to certain folks so don’t scroll down if you are susceptible…

    Amadeus by … whatshisface. Falco. (I had to look it up.) Specifically the repeated Amadeus bit ending with “come on and rock me Amadeus”. Also, it’s officially called Rock Me Amadeus. TIL

    Why? No freaking clue. It just popped into my head and got stuck on repeat. I haven’t heard it in decades. I listen to the local NPR Classical station almost daily. Maybe I heard some Mozart and my brain made a dumb, obvious connection when I wasn’t paying attention.

    Really freaking annoying, and intrusive.

    The best way I have found to combat an earworm is to overwhelm it by listening to the catchiest songs I can think of. That can be a double-edged sword, though, and you might end up with a double earworm. One instance a few years back I had the initial earworm plus REM’s Shiny Happy People as well on constant repeat. That was pretty brutal.

    Regardless of why, it is stuck in my head on a constant loop unless I concentrate it away, but that is only a temporary fix and it fades quickly. I need to peruse my song list.

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  39. Kylopod says:

    @de stijl: I think that’s the American version, distinct from the German version which features rap verses.

    There are several versions.

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  40. Grumpy realist says:

    @Beth: one of the funnier religious incidents I ran into during my research into excommunication was the report of a tiny Protestant sect in Canada which, after the original leader died, ended up splitting in half; each half which immediately tried to excommunicate the other…

    (I find this even more hilarious because excommunication is in fact an offshoot due to the Catholic Church’s adoption of Roman Law and, um, not Protestant at all.)

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  41. de stijl says:

    @de stijl:

    Everybody, I heartily apologize. I intentionally put in five lines of blank space between the earworm warning and the reveal, but the commenting software decided to ignore that. If you are susceptible, I am so sorry. It was not my intent. Had no idea that would happen.

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  42. DrDaveT says:

    @Mikey:

    As far as head coaching jobs, the Commanders are looking for someone too

    Good luck with that. Donning my Karnak the Magnificent robes, I predict that Washington will never win a playoff game under the current team name. The Curse of the Moniker is stronger than any managerial skills.

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  43. MarkedMan says:

    @de stijl: Try listening to music that is completely new to you

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  44. de stijl says:

    @MarkedMan:

    Great idea! Why have I never thought of that before?

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  45. dazedandconfused says:

    @Beth:

    @Beth:

    ‘Tis but a pebble to the sort of excavation involved in high-to-mid-rise foundation work. Anything else? The cray-crays would just dig it out again.

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  46. MarkedMan says:

    In a different thread, I made the mistake of reading a Lounsbury reply, something I try to avoid. The fault is my own, but it made me realize that before I gave him up completely, while I often complained about his writing, I never “showed my work”. For what it’s worth, I wasted twenty minutes of my life today and went through that reply line by line, if anyone is interested. Here’s a link.

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  47. dazedandconfused says:

    @gVOR10:
    Considering the lack of damage to the attachment points, it’s a fair bet it’s one of two things: Either the factory didn’t install the retaining bolts, as it might seemingly hold itself in place simply on rollers and retaining pins, or the rollers at the top failed. The top bolts retain the rollers but do not reenforce them. Those rollers, or the part that attaches them to the door, fail and the bolts at the top do nothing.

    They are going to have to find that door.

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  48. Kathy says:

    @dazedandconfused:

    The door plug was found yesterday, in the backyard of a house.

    There are reports of pressurization indications in previous flights, but without details. I don’t know if pressurization warnings are localized or even can be. The plane was barred from flying over water for that reason. then the door plug blew.

    As to why a door plug rather than a door, the answer is weight and space. To begin with there are always two doors in the cabin, one on each side. An actual door weighs more and takes up space. Ergo a plug. As to why even cut a door hole there, I assume that’s how all MAX 9 fuselages are cut. Some airlines do need the additional exit doors, which are determined by a plane’s passenger capacity (how many seats it has).

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  49. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @de stijl: Earworms are the soundtrack of your subconscious. Learn to embrace the background.

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  50. Beth says:

    @dazedandconfused:

    This is amazing and absolutely right. Still, I would hate to be on the crew that eventually has to break it up.

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  51. DK says:

    @Kurtz:

    I’m guessing that Atlanta makes a push for either Harbaugh or Belichick.

    Belichick is still employed by the Pats, no? Lots of people are certain Kraft will let him go. But.

    My Falcons are a lost cause at the moment. But so was New England before Brady-Belichick showed up.

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  52. Kurtz says:

    @DK:

    I’m not sure that Belichick gets fired, either. But I could see Atlanta trying to work out a deal for him. Also, the Vrabel firing may throw a wrench into whatever Kraft had planned, as well. And of course, Jerrod Mayo has been the assumed successor for a few years now. I guess we will see.

    Either way, I would be happy with either Harbaugh or Belichick. Other than those two, Weaver Asst. HC of the Ravens or Ben Johnson would be my preference.

    As you can probably guess, I don’t really see our beloved team as a lost cause. Quite a change from most of my life. League average QB play wins that division easily. Young skill position players–Pitts is the oldest of the trio and he doesn’t turn 24 until October. Solid O-line, even if they didn’t play quite as well this year.

    Need reliable pass rushers and corner depth, but Bates will keep the backfield in order in a way that can cover some of the flaws at CB.

    Good to know there is another Falcons fan around here.

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  53. DK says:

    @Kurtz:

    Good to know there is another Falcons fan around here.

    I was born in Savannah, raised in DeKalb County, and attended high school across from Piedmont Park.

    What’s your excuse? How did you get stuck in this masochist cycle?

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  54. Beth says:

    @Kurtz:
    @DK:

    Part of me is prepared to invest in paper bags to wear at Saints games. The only thing stopping me is the NFC South is the AL Central of football. Haute gorbage through and through.

    As long as Saints stay klassy, beat the frigging useless Bears and the Falcons, I’ll be happy. Would be nice if they could find some of Payton’s old Molly and give DA a little, eh, emotion.

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  55. MarkedMan says:

    @DK: Hah! Lived in Marietta for a year and then moved to just south of Piedmont Park for a couple of years. Not a fan of Atlanta in general, but loved that neighborhood.

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  56. Kurtz says:

    @DK:

    I was born north of San Francisco. But my dad has been a Falcons fan since before I was born. Never entirely sure why. I think because he rooted for underdogs. He was surrounded by Niners fans and they were division rivals until realignment. Well, I inherited that.

    Incidently, after a few other stops, I mostly grew up in Southwest Georgia. So it worked out.

    At halftime of the Super Bowl against New England, I called me dad. A friend of mine in the room leaned over my shoulder to yell into the phone, “Relax! You guys got this.”

    I shot him the dirtiest look.

    Because we know.

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  57. Kurtz says:

    @Beth:

    I didn’t know you live in New Orleans.

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  58. gVOR10 says:

    @dazedandconfused: They found the door. But the rollers are actually the other way around , on the door frame. They seem to be present and undamaged in the photos. Any one of the four bolts should have been able to keep the door from sliding up. Sure sounds like someone either didn’t install them, in which case the weight of the door would have held it closed, until it didn’t, or they were installed without the cotter pins in the castle nuts, which vibrated off. United and others have reported “loose” bolts. That could mean not torqued, or it could mean missing cotters.

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  59. de stijl says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    If my subconscious is a snippet of Rock Me Amadeus on a constant loop I am utterly doomed. I refuse to embrace that.

    Mostly, it’s a mechanical stuffed money toy clanging two cymbals together forever.

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  60. dazedandconfused says:

    @gVOR10:

    I’d go with missing cotters. The bolts are retention pins, essentially, which should only be barely snug if snug at all, meaning the cotters would be the only thing keeping the nuts from vibrating loose, which seems increasingly unlikely.

    There’s a world of difference to the airlines between a design flaw and a mis-installation…Many moons of type-grounding could result from the former, a type grounding which could extend to all models which have this hatch…as opposed to a week for the latter.

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