Welcome to February Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Tuesday, February 1, 2022
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77 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Somewhere along the line in my smoking “career” I stopped throwing my butts on the ground. When the cig got down to the last bit, I’d roll it between my fingers until the cherry came off, step on the cherry and stuff the tobaccoless butt in a back pocket. Every now and again I’d forget to empty my pocket which made for a mess in the washing machine and my wife yelling at me.
Better there than out in the world.
Good for him.
Air Force general openly shares his mental health appointment: ‘Warrior heart. No stigma’
I talked to the NOLA son last night. Sounds like he has the long covid. Coughing and fatigued, probably more (asthmatic, so I expect shortness of breath, also a migraine sufferer so I expect an increase there too). I wasn’t able to talk too long last night so I gotta call him back today and see what other details I can pull out of him.
@OzarkHillbilly: years ago I was in Rome for the first time and was at some “National and historic treasure” that had a huge marble staircase that served as a public forum. Every square inch was littered with cigarette buts and the marble was black with ground in ash. I remember thinking, ‘if this two thousand year old structure isn’t important enough not to use it as an ash tray, they should just tear it down and sell the land to a developer.’
@OzarkHillbilly: I gotta ask, vaxxed? And if not, any regrets?
Whoever could they be talking about?
Yeah, a Nazi pedophile is now the guiding light of the Republican party. And what did Massie have to say about it all? Not a damn thing:
Also:
In today’s GOP, passing on outright falsehoods is the very definition of “intellectual honesty.”
@OzarkHillbilly: The irony is that Voltaire was a pretty hardcore racist and anti-Semite, meaning a neo-Nazi would hardly need to fabricate a quote from him to find something they agree with.
@MarkedMan: Yes, he is fully vaxxed and boosted. Was first in line as soon as he was eligible because of his asthma. All in his household were except for his less than a y.o. daughter who I am sure soon will be now that one has been approved for toddlers, but they all got it anyway.
It was probably inevitable that he’d get it sooner or later as he is a waiter at a popular NOLA establishment. I am hoping I am wrong but he didn’t sound good last night.
@Kylopod: Heh, I took a couple philosophy classes way back when, but I did not know that.
Preparing for the storm that starts tonight. Got 2 20#ers filled with propane yesterday. Gotta load up on gasoline for the generator, and water for the toilet. The wood box is loaded with 3 days worth and the shed still holds almost a cord. We have plenty of batteries but I’ll probably pick up a few more.
According to the NWS, we’re looking at 6-11 inches on top of freezing rain and at least an inch of sleet. I don’t expect to lose power but chance favors the prepared. My shoulder is gonna get quite the workout with the shovel.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Oh, that’s bad. We got about 13 inches of snow, but happily it was light and fluffy. The heavy wet stuff is the worst.
@OzarkHillbilly: I read something recently that made sense as to why I just had a mild case of COVID, despite being very high risk. I’ve long heard that the amount of the viral load you receive affects how bad your COVID becomes, but I recently read that the type of viral load also affects it. That is, a viral load from an infectious vaxxed person already has antibodies working on the exhaled virus, and this is less likely to make you very sick.
For me, I was around my vaxxed, infected daughter and no one else who had COVID. So I received a relatively small viral load, already being attacked by my kid’s antibodies. In contrast, your poor son probably was around many unvaxxed people on the job.
I’m feeling really depressed about Democratic prospects for the 2022 elections, perhaps because I’m reading too much Twitter. There seems to be an equal amount of people who are outraged that Democrats are doing too much or not enough about COVID—either complaining about too much masking, mandates and school closures, or complaining that there are not enough mandates, lockdowns and stimulus payments. Very few people seem to land where I do, thinking that the Biden administration, while having plenty of room for improvement, is doing a decent job addressing a difficult pandemic in a very divided country.
@Monala:
Until we know who the candidates are, polls really aren’t going to tell us much as to how well Dems will do in Nov. We do know that due to several R state legislatures choosing to solidify their hold on current seats and Dems pursuing gerrymanders, the house map has a smaller R bias than in the past. That’s good news. Then there is the reality that R primary voters, frequently choose the most unelectable candidate to represent the party. Don’t give up hope yet.
@OzarkHillbilly: Wishing him a very short Long COVID
Tom Brady makes it official.
YMMV, but I gotta love this kid’s entrepreneurial spirit:
C’mon Elon, I think you can afford it. And then some.
To those who would say he shouldn’t be doing this because the nutcase doesn’t “love the idea of being shot by another nutcase,” it’s publicly available data. Anybody can get it. Besides,
and they aren’t whining about it.
@OzarkHillbilly: Elon, the amount he’s asking for is loose change in the cushions for someone like you.
I suspect what Elon is worried about is giving a green light to other computer geeks repeating his feat. The data that is being used is public, right? So someone else with a brain could do the exact same thing, no?
$5000/computer geek is probably the level of financial continual drip that Elon is willing to deal with to get the risk off his radar. And he’s obviously low-balling it, because hey, that’s what you do in negotiations.
This tweet from David Frum hit my radar. Seems relevant to a lot of the discussions — and discussants 🙂 — around here.
My research group was discussing a similar thing — though very different context — the other day. Namely, what does it mean to ask people to reflect on “given the {insert bad outcomes here}, was it all worth it…if you could do it over again, would you?”
The common reflexive answer is “yes.” This can be puzzling to others, as the outcomes were (are) so very bad. But to answer “no” would negate one’s entire history. A total loss of coherence. The counterfactual is impossible. (putting aside the notion of metaverses)
Anyway, that’s my random contribution to the open forum this morning.
@Sleeping Dog: Not surprised. My son and I were discussing his future after last season and I said that “as long as the competitive fires burn bright, he will be on the field.” After the Bucs got bounced in the divisional round, and we all saw the show Mahomes and Allen put on, my son speculated that while Brady was still a top tier quarterback, he realized he was no longer THE top quarterback, one that is capable of putting a team on his back and carrying them over the line. What is more there is a whole crop of younger quarterbacks who are now better than he is, and a couple who may be better than he ever was (not with his longevity, yet).
Anyway, at 44 he’s had more than enough abuse inflicted on his body. Besides, a 7-3 record in Superbowls… I doubt anybody will ever get close to it.
@Mimai: As one who is approaching the end, I can say I’ve been thru a lot of shit and survived it all. I have also had some truly magical moments, things that very few people are privileged to have experienced.
I suspect most people can say the same to varying extents, and that we would all say, “It was worth it.”
@grumpy realist: You’re right of course. That’s why I thought it interesting that he did not respond to the request for an internship. The kid has chutzpah, something I would have thought Musk, as much as I dislike the guy, would admire.
@OzarkHillbilly:
When he left the Pats there was a lot of noise about bad blood between him and Hoodie and the Krafts. The bad blood may been true, but I’ve always believed that he took a look at that team and knew it couldn’t be a contender and then bolted for the Bucs who were a contender lacking a QB.
Being free of Brady’s salary, the otherwise capped out Pats had some money to burn that Hoodie used to make the team a competitive, though hardly a contender. He can look forward to a lucrative Sunday afternoon TV gig till the cumulative effects of all those hits to the head begin to show.
@Mimai:
Much of our psychology is built about writing a narrative to give meaning to a series of largely random events, usually with ourselves as the protagonist in that narrative. The idea of the narrative continuing without the main character threatens the veneer of meaning and thus we instinctively reject it.
@OzarkHillbilly:
That might be because they are aware of the Streisand Effect.
@Sleeping Dog: Total speculation on my part but I suspect the “retired/not retired” barn dance was Step 1) Brady wanting to give his own company the scoop on him retiring, Step 2) that company posting it in their feed and lighting the sports world up, Step 3) his agent calling him up and saying if you had only waited two more weeks it would be worth $15M in bonuses, Step 4) him trying to walk it back.
If I’m right, I’m wondering if he just gave up on the $15M or did he work something out?
@OzarkHillbilly: Cigars! The butt is biodegradable.
@OzarkHillbilly: I’m sorry to hear about your son. I hope we can begin to figure out how to treat long covid soon.
Both the Right and Left Have Illiberal Factions. Which Is More Dangerous?
A quantitative analysis.
The illiberal right is also a force in R politics, while for Dems, the illiberal left is a noisy, irritating distraction. Even if one were to concede that the Squad represent the illiberal left, you would be strained to honestly identify another sitting Dem senator or US rep who can be classified as illiberal. On the R side? Well we’ll start with TFG, then the majorities of both the R senate and house caucuses.
If the the US has an authoritarian future, it will be under the boot heel of the right.
Apparently the head grifter is volcanic that someone else would be grifting off his name: Trump campaign distances itself from David Bossie over alleged scam.
@MarkedMan:
I’m not following the ins and outs of Brady’s business, I don’t care. Feel pretty much the same about football. Haven’t watch a minute of an NFL game this season and the only football I’ve seen was about 10 minutes of the Alabama v. Georgia regular season game as I waited to pick up a pizza.
$15M? The allowance Giselle gives him is likely larger. 😉
@Sleeping Dog:
I don’t care wither, so long as he doesn’t continue to flip-flop and wind up unretiring and playing for the Vikings or the Dolphins next season. Then he gets to dominate the NFL news cycle for weeks. Like Favre did a few years back
@sam:
Apparently Trump doesn’t mind people making money off his name nearly as much as he minds it when they don’t giver him credit for the fact that his name enables them to rake in the chips.
@OzarkHillbilly: You know, it’s true that the data is available publicly, but the sort of nutcase that is inclined to shoot people down is typically not very good at putting together the tech to do it.
I find what Sweeny is doing to be irresponsible. To extort money from Musk would be to invite anyone else with his skills (Hint: I have the skills to do this, easily. Probably tens of thousands of people do, and if it took off you could probably find tutorials about it on the web) to do the same.
I don’t find “Elon is rich” to be a compelling argument here. I can imagine this sort of thing used to harass all kinds of people. Imagine if Trump had this capability via hiring someone to do it. Would you like that? You could go to his website and find all the flight information of everyone who has voted against him, or criticized him. And Trump would of course say, “It’s publicly available information”. Ugh.
I mentioned this on the thread about Trump seizing the voting machines, but I might as well bring it up here: Trump announced this morning that he wants Congress to investigate Mike Pence for refusing to overturn the election results.
I always thought that was the scenario right there. No bad blood, just business. They were both able to do the math and just came to an agreement to go their separate ways with best wishes for all.
Brady got one more Superbowl win, sealing his status as the GOAT, and the Patriots got to begin a long overdue rebuild. As much as I dislike Belichick, and wonder if he still has it in him, I hope he succeeds.
Someone remarked that because Twitter is an open playground, it’s easier to refute false information or negative ideas there than on Facebook or instagram. Two examples from today, on the right and left:
Bari Weiss had a guest writer on her Substack, a young woman who gave up a $75,000 scholarship to Bryn Mawr to attend the conservative Christian college Hillsdale. Despite (supposedly) being a liberal and coming from a liberal single mom-led family, she says she has found Hillsdale to be more open, tolerant and in line with her values.
Twitter went to work, discovering that her supposedly liberal mom has a long history of tweeting right wing talking points, has worked for right wing organizations, and is an avid anti-vaxxer, tweeting last year that she wouldn’t allow her daughter to get vaxxed the way Bryn Mawr was requiring.
A commenter also pointed out that the things the young woman said to show her liberal bonafides make no sense. She wrote that she’s an avid watcher of Jon Stewart on the Daily Show and worshipped Christopher Hitchens. She’s 20 years old, and since the former hasn’t been relevant or on the show for nearly a decade, and the latter has been deceased for more than a decade, how likely is it that she ever watched or listened to either? On the other hand, her mom might have, if indeed she was a liberal at some point.
On the left, John Aravosis of AmericaBlog tweeted today in response to an article about the bomb threats at HBCUs (historically black colleges and universities), that he only recently learned what HBCU stands for, and if progressives want people to care about the issue, they would stop using acronyms people don’t understand. He also complained about the use of AAPI (Asian American and Pacific Islanders).
Again, Twitter went to work, first pointing out that his Twitter bio includes eight acronyms, most far more obscure than HBCU and AAPI, and wondering how, as a journalist, he could be so unfamiliar with these terms. Second, pointing out that the linked article defined HBCU in the very first sentence. Third, pointing out that it is extremely selfish, in a situation where black colleges are getting bomb threats, to get mad because you might have to use Google.
@MarkedMan: Ah, true that. Not being famous and so not a problem for me, I never think of that.
@Jay L Gischer:
All civilian aircraft can be tracked when they’re flying. There are apps and websites where you can look up just about any airline flight in the world (yes, I do have one).
Military and private aircraft often don’t make their ID, origin, or destination known, but there’s a tracking code just the same. If you know Musk’s, you can track the Elon jet. Same for every other private plane with a transponder.
As to the story, the way I heard it Elon offered money first. He really blundered doing so.
He could always park or sell his jet, and hire a different executive jet operator for every trip. That wouldn’t be easy to track.
@Jay L Gischer: As I said at the very beginning, YMMV.
As far as nut cases taking potshots, if they are serious enough to put together a plan and fine tune all the logistics etc that might, just might, make for a serious attempt, they aren’t going to need any help. Than again, they are a nut case, and so will probably succeed in only removing themselves from the gene pool by doing something really stupid like blowing themselves up brewing nitro glycerin using the recipe from the Anarchist’s Cookbook.
Lastly, he wasn’t trying to extort any money out of Musk. He did it for the *fun of it.* Musk was the one to introduce money into the equation when he tried to lowball the kid with a $5K offer. The kid just thought, “Hmmmm, maybe $50K?”
Musk said “No.”
So the kid said, “How’s about an internship then?”
And Must did not reply.
** don’t ask me what was “fun” about doing this, different strokes for different folks. I used to crawl around in deep dark holes for a week or more at a time for “fun”.
@Jay L Gischer: Think of it this way: The kid put together this new vehicle that does one thing in particular that no other vehicle does.
Musk saw it and said, “I want to buy your new vehicle and am willing to pay you $5K for it.”
The kid said, “No, that’s too low. I’ll sell it to you for $50K.”
Musk replied, “Nope, way too high.”
The kid said, “OK, how’s about an internship then?”
And Musk said,
………………..
……………………
……………..
…………………
………………..
Yeah, we’re still waiting.
@Jay L Gischer:
Couldn’t disagree more.
Elon Musk is worth 200Billion. If some rando kid can get under his skin this way. he can go suck eggs.
Maybe he should stop being a douche first. Nobody tracks Warren Buffet’s jet. Nobody tracks Stephen Spielberg’s jet. No one tracks Larry Ellison’s jet.
Elon makes himself a target by his outspoken celebrity. You can’t have it both ways. You either want and welcome publicity, or you stay private. You can’t want to be a celebrity and then complain that people want to pay attention to you.
@OzarkHillbilly:
It’s a bit like plane spotting at a remove. At least for me, when I play with the Flightradar 24 app. Sometimes you find things out, like an Emirates flight coming into Mexico City from Spain, long before Emirates flew here (it was a cargo flight).
@EddieInCA:
Ellison may not be a douche, but he is a miserable SOB.
Dog photos as vax ID? It seems that bizarre covidiot behavior and rationalizations are not limited to the US. Good to know, I guess… 🙁
@Sleeping Dog: As a person, Ellison sounds pretty awful. In all fairnes, thereis this:
In 2010, he signed the Giving Pledge, promising to donate 95% of his fortune before he dies. And in May 2016, Ellison donated $200 million to a cancer treatment center at the University of Southern California.
@Jay L Gischer: I’m sure Elon Musk has lawyers who have the ability to figure out how to swear out a stalking complaint/restraining order if he wants one. Instead, he elected to enter into a negotiation with his stalker aimed at setting a price for his continued privacy. In my take, that action moved this issue from extortion to first world rich guy problem about which I have low concern. YMMV. In fact, it probably does.
To me, it’s clear that this is a game–all the way around.
@CSK: That’s actually a pretty good idea. The two Micks (or is that Mcs) in the GQP Congressional caucus should keep this in mind for when they take control of Congress. They’re going to need a distraction to disguise the fact that government has officially stopped.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
I think Trump said it to tarnish Pence’s chances in 2024. Not that Trump has to worry about that. MAGA World loathes Pence. Trump’s going to have to figure out a way to trash DeSantis.
@senyordave:
Hey, you need to have an argument when you’re standing in front of Peter at the Pearly Gates…
@CSK: I’m not concerned about motives (and I think melting snowball in hell is more likely to get the GQP nomination than Pence anyway). I’m only thinking that it will be easier for the GQP to not govern if they have something else to do.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
They’re not going to turn on one of their own.
Lame physics joke of the day:
Bartender: Sorry, our insurance does not cover faster than light particles.
A tachyon walks into a bar.
February is Black History Month
@Kathy:
I suspect Elon’s blunder was he acted at the behest of his bodyguards, and neither he nor they thought of asking their pilot to look into the matter before they contacted the kid (who, if he had taken the $5k, could’ve henceforth brag that he scammed Elon effin’ Musk) first. LADD and PIA has been around some time now.
Elon Musk, so eloquent:
‘A damp sock puppet in human form’: Elon Musk insults Biden after White House snub
Is Elon Musk a 12 year old boy somehow occupying the body of an adult? Sounds like Tesla and SpaceX are being run by teenage boys, with amount of alleged sexual harassment going on in both companies. If it can be proven I hope the jury awards are through the stratosphere. For a guy like Musk, damage to his pocketbook is the only thing that will bother him.
@senyordave:
Sounds like Donald Trump. Only smarter.
@senyordave:
Speaking of Tesla.
Tesla recalls nearly 54,000 vehicles that may disobey stop signs
There goes that oppressive government again.
@OzarkHillbilly:
That is a common take. It might be the correct one. I certainly believe you when you talk about your own magic. But there are indeed a lot of folks who have not had such moments. Or very few of them. And whose current situation is dreadful by their own account. And yet it is striking how such folks contend “it” was worth it. Or are at least unwilling to say “it” was not.
Frum’s tweet about the future is an interesting one in light of the doomsday forecasting that’s all the rage amongst the (not)kids these days.
@Stormy Dragon:
Agree. Though I suspect most people’s narratives are rather circumscribed. Unlikely that they’re the protagonist of democracy writ large. Though (x2) we are all the center of our own universe. So perhaps it holds. At least at the margin.
Another glowing review of Ketanji Brown Jackson. 🙂
@Kathy: Yeah, different strokes for different folks. I would never, but how many folks here would live in the dark, getting covered in gorilla shit for 9 days? And yet, I did it.
I take solace in the fact that Elon has now proven he is not as smart as trump. You say what????
When trump needed an extra marital dalliance buried, he got the National Enquirerer to do it and then he got elected. What did Elon do? Yeah: The stupid, it hurts. He tried to do it himself. Now it’s a national story.
@OzarkHillbilly: In this case Musk might be crazy like a fox. If this is the national story he should be quite pleased. It could be the sexual harassment cases at both Tesla and SpaceX that are working their way through the courts.
Not to brag, but I have seen things no other human being had ever seen before. A few things no other human being will in all likelihood ever see again (why would they?). It is hard to explain, but there is a reason people go underground.
I have also climbed high above timberline and seen a dawn like none I ever will again, felt like the first person in the world. Survived flash floods and searched for survivors of flash floods. Stood in the gut pile of a jaguar kill and stared deep into the jungle for the jealous eyes of an angry predator. Climbed out of the Sotano de las Golandrinas with the swallows.
It ain’t much but like I said, I’ve been blessed.
I’ve been pondering the term “conflict entrepreneur” the last few days. I don’t know if I’ve heard a better political term that’s acceptable in polite company once we got past “professional shit-stirrer” and “right wing media personality”.
It’s the perfect description for all the grifters trying to tear this country apart for the almighty dollar. 😐
@senyordave: It’s a point, but I have to think he just got lucky. Seriously, if he had gotten the NE to bid up the website with a condition of never recreating it, it would now be buried in an NE safe. But nooooo-ooooooo, he got personally involved.
If he had wanted he could even have implicated the kid in a murder for hire plot. Say a few innocent enough things, get the kid to reply in an incriminating way, and voila! Elon’s the victim!
@Mimai:
How do you differentiate the avoidance of self-negation from other reasoning?
I mean, for me, I would answer in the affirmative because to do it over again may in most instances lead to a much better life in some respects, the downstream effect would be to preclude relationships and experiences that value more than anything else.
Of course, perhaps hypothetical relationships and experiences would ultimately be an adequate substitute. And one cannot miss what one does not know (except for Carly Rae Jepsen.)
But accepting those caveats doesn’t mean that the counterfactyal can’t be read as an affirmation of the cherished aspects of one’s lived life.
@CSK:
Bwa ha hahahahahahahahahaha.
Oh, man, that’s hysterically funny.
@OzarkHillbilly:
I suspect the only chutzpah he admires is his own.
@Flat Earth Luddite:
I’m thrilled to provide you with such merriment.
@Kurtz:
This deserves WAY more attention than I can give it here. A long conversation. So forgive me for simply noting that some scholars contend that there is no difference. That is, approach and avoidance (in reasoning and behavior) are the same — it just depends on where you focus the lens. Stated differently, we approach to avoid…and vice versa. My opinion: true to some degree and yet so very wrong.
Ah, here’s a key thing that I didn’t explicitly state earlier. In my framing, there is no opportunity to do it better. That is, the respondent is accepting the current situation as is. Unchanged. And that situation is dreadful. And the “valuable” relationships/experiences (current and past) are limited — in frequency and intensity. To be sure, there are some highlights, and it’s striking that these win the day wrt “would you do it all over again?”
Fernweh 🙂
I agree. I think this highlights the dimensionality of the topic. On one level, it’s the affirmation that is being expressed. On another level, it’s the need for coherence. On another level, and another level, …
[ps, glad to see you back around these parts again]
@OzarkHillbilly:
Not a brag at all. And if it was, definitely stuff to brag about. And since when has bragging been unusual around here?
Anyway, I love hearing about such things. The stuff that elicits awe. My UP is your DOWN, but I think the fundamental experience is similar.
Opinion: we should spend more time conversing about such things.
@CSK:
No, thank you! I needed that today.
@Mimai:
I feel like I just bought all the Chiclets at a Mexican restaurant and simultaneously consumed them all.
I’ve just been lurking. I read almost every proper post and many of the comments. I just haven’t had much to say. Mostly just thinking about the perspectives of others.
I like the people here too much to stay away for long.
@Kurtz: Google tells me there’s a Chuy’s in Pembroke Pines.
@Mimai:
Gotta be a local joint. The type of place that you’re not sure which part of the hog you’re getting when you order a pork dish.