Friday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Friday, October 21, 2022
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70 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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I just saw a headline that Musk says he will cut 75% of the staff when he buys Twitter. My immediate reaction is that this is some attempt to drive the banks away. There must be some clause that his offer to buy is contingent on his ability to get financing or something similar.
Pertinent to yesterday’s discussion on the geographic diversity of voting rules, possibly some of OTB’s Florida resident commentariat would answer a question about voting in Florida.
When a body appears at a polling place, do the election workers consult a registration book (either printed or digital) to establish that you are eligible to vote at that polling place (or anywhere else)?
Simple possession of a voter registration card, being easy to counterfeit, seems like a very sloppy way to ensure that voting is restricted to eligible voters only.
More than a dozen schools in Wisconsin were victims of attempted “swatting”.
@Bob@Youngstown: uhFlorida voter here. When I get to head of the line, vote registration card not looked at by poll workers. (“It’s for your information.”) There is a printed master list (the ‘voter roll’) that has all the voters in that precinct.
If yr name doesn’t appear I suppose you get to cast provisional ballot.
No explanation how those folks who are charged w illegal voting got onto their county’s rolls.
@JohnMc: If I recall the news items correctly, at least SOME Floridians charged with illegal voting were former felons “mistakenly” told that they were eligible to vote by their counties, but I’m blurry on the details now and too lazy to look them up.
@JohnMc: @Just nutha ignint cracker:
That’s my recollection as well.
‘The army has nothing’: new Russian conscripts bemoan lack of supplies
Paper tiger.
None of this should be a surprise.
Comedy Wildlife Photo finalists – in pictures
My favorite: Talk to the Fin.
Louisiana trio imprisoned for 28 years freed after judge tosses murder convictions
Long overdue:
It may be innate media sensationalism/scare story, but it’s beginning to look a lot like Boris.
Though consider this line: “..supporters are calling on Johnson to return from holiday in the Dominican Republic and run again ..”
Seriously?
Back in 69 CE, Vespasian fairly rushed from Judea to Rome in the Year of Four Emperors. Yes, he took months to get home, but information and travel were both slower back then. And he had been besieging Jerusalem when Nero improved the world by leaving it.
Boris has no such excuse.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Reason #2,435 why you don’t want me as a politician. I’d be inclined to look at the reporter and ask, “I don’t know, what do you think?”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/20/texas-twins-escape-arrest-mother-boyfriend?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
While my blood is up at these sad excuses for people, I’m disgusted by the neighbors who turned these two away, not knowing what to do. Really? FFFS, dudes, what part of let them in and call for help was a foreign language to you?
@Kathy: “Though consider this line: “..supporters are calling on Johnson to return from holiday in the Dominican Republic and run again ..””
I hope JohnSF will weigh in on this, but it seems to me that if the party sacks their PM because he was a lying scumbag — and announces to the country they’re doing it because he was a lying scumbag — then brings in someone so completely incompetent she loses to the lettuce and then brings back the guy they say is a lying scumbag because well why not… doesn’t that kind of send a message to everyone who is not a Tory insider that these are people who should not be trusted running a chips shop, let alone the government? Can’t even these horrible people see how bad this would look?
@Flat Earth Luddite:
But that’s socialism!
@wr:
I don’t think they care so much how it looks, as what they get out of supporting Boris.
BTW, I wouldn’t trust them to scrape dog do off the sidewalk.
@wr: @Kathy:
A sidelight here: Johnson is apparently trying to write a bio of Shakespeare, for which he’s missed three publishing deadlines since 2015.
@Kathy:
Reposting from yesterday:
Incidentally, if anyone is wondering where Johnson is to plot his possible comeback, turn out the lazy fat **** is on holiday, again.
He was last seen in Westminster in July; has since been on holiday in Slovenia in late July, Greece in August (while he was still PM) Spain in September, a quick jaunt to Colorado, and then the Dominican Republic.
Good to know his constituents are being well served with any problems an MP usually helps with.
As said, he’s been looking like losing the next election in Uxbridge, so he really doesn’t give a ****.
Reliably transactional, is Boris.
Means if he does get back as leader, there’s going to be a kerfuffle arranging to parachute him into a safer seat.
If such a thing as a safe Conservative seat exists any more.
@Flat Earth Luddite:
There were reports that Treasury, Fed and IMF were seriously worried that the UK gilts spike could knock over some pension funds in the long for short swaps market (don’t ask me…), which would hit the banks financing said deals, and bank contagion could do the ole bank contagion tango again.
Fortunately, current market state seems to be outside the danger zone, and Bank of England has supervised unwinding of positions.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Reports are that about a dozen will definitely resign the whip if Johnson wins.
BUT: Must note only Mordaunt has officially declared so far.
MPs public statements of support so far are :
Sunak 84
Johnson 48
Mordaunt 21
Question; how many of the Johnson declarations are just public, to get the local party loonies off their backs?
@Kathy:
What they get out of Johnson:
– some hope for office
– some still see him as a “proven election winner”
– a few are personally loyal
– some ERG types consider him a “least worst” for some reason
– a lot think supporting him in public will get the crazy ladies in the local party off their backs; would not surprise me if quite a few endorse in public, vote against in private.
From Henry Zeffman: a Labour source on Johnson.
Former Conservative leadership candidate Rory Stewart:
And I suspect Ian Dunt is a teensy bit peeved.
Almost as much as I am, in fact.
Deserves quoting at length.
Stand back, it’s hot:
@JohnSF:
Could someone call the burn unit and tell them to expect a visitor?
Ouch!
@JohnSF:
He’s not wrong.
Trump Subpoenaed
CNBC
@Mister Bluster:
He’s been ordered to do so on November 14.
@CSK:..November 14.
I believe the date is mentioned in the CNBC item at the link.
@Mister Bluster:
Yes, I see. I missed that when I first read it. Do you think he’ll do it?
@Flat Earth Luddite: Well sure, but coming up to a neighbor’s door shackled and asking for help doesn’t mean the same thing in notmyproblemese. Or whogivesa[slide whistle toot]ese, either.
This cracks me up. Even if you decide to just look at the photo, it’s worth a click.
robert-bork-corgi-man-photo
@wr: You’re asking him that when people on this forum can’t agree that the people at the capital on January 6th weren’t insurrectionists? And that even people in the general population who will agree that they were are saying that they’ll vote for the insurrectionist in chief given the choice to in 2024? Party loyalty isn’t just a US thing.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: typo/no edit: Line two in my comment should read “were” not “weren’t.”
@CSK: “He was last seen in Westminster in July; has since been on holiday in Slovenia in late July, Greece in August (while he was still PM) Spain in September, a quick jaunt to Colorado, and then the Dominican Republic.
Good to know his constituents are being well served with any problems an MP usually helps with.”
Doesn’t sound much like he’s working on a book to me. [eyeroll emoji]
@JohnSF: “in the long for short swaps market (don’t ask me…),”
These types of “investments” remind me of a story (perhaps apocryphal, but from a reliable source IIRC) where the economist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics for describing a derivatives market answered a question about how one would make money investing in them with “I have no idea.”
Don’t ask me, indeed! Don’t ask me, either. 😉
@CSK:..Do you think he’ll do it?
This is Trump. I can only guess that he will try every roadblock at his disposal to delay, delay, delay.
He gets the attention he craves if he shows up sooner or later or somehow dodges the invitation.
Is there legal jeopardy if he shows up and takes the 5th at every question?
Is there legal jeopardy if he refuses?
All of it plays to his monstrous ego.
I don’t know what he will do.
@JohnSF: As I was reading your Dunt quote, I was thinking that the words there could just as easily apply to the Republiqan party and to Trump, or Mitch McConnell for that matter. (Or most anybody else with (R) after their name.)
@CSK:
Me, I’d have issued the subpoena and the referral to the DOJ for contempt of Congress at the same time.
@Mister Bluster:
I agree. I also have the feeling he’s hoping for the Rs to take the House and Senate so he can run out the clock with appeals till the Jan 6 committee is disbanded.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Oh, I’m sure he takes the manuscript with him and works on it assiduously for 5-6 hours every day.
@CSK: Okay. As long as someone believes that…
Yesterday I finished reading Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That’ll Improve and/or Ruin Everything by Kelly and Zach Weinersmith.
It’s a mix of science/technology popularización and humor, rather similar to Randall Munroe’s style. This inevitably led me to begin reading Munroe’s latest “What If? 2”.
Both are rather short books. I estimate finishing Munroe’s by next Tuesday at the latest.
Along these lines, too, I very much recommend the Mr. Tompkins stories by George Gamow. These consist basically of low speed, macroscopic illustrations of relativity and quantum physics. Like, what if the speed of light were 15 mph.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Publisher’s probably getting annoyed.
@CSK: Especially since he supposedly already received a nice chunk of change as an advance for it.
@Kathy: Another good book is The Strange Story of the Quantum. Was a Dover book, but I think it’s now out of print. It was the standard publication I would hand over to people who asked me “so what is this quantum stuff, anyway?”
@grumpy realist:
“Lucrative” was the word used. I’m sure he’s aware he’ll have to give it back if he doesn’t produce a publishable manuscript.
@grumpy realist:
I think the first time I heard “quantum mechanics” was in chemistry class in junior high school. It was an adendum to atomic structure, and all I recall the textbook said was something like “energy only comes in discrete packets called quanta.”
Turned out there’s a little bit more to it.
@JohnSF:
Hmmm…well that seems familiar.
@Kathy:
I just listened to an NPR segment with him. It was entertaining.
Any Niners fans here?
Adding McCaffrey may put them at the top of the NFC. He’s one of the 3 or 4 unique backs in the league.
Of course, Santa Clara is where RBs go to get injured and endure playoff losses due to poor Shanahan play calls in high leverage late game situations.
re. Johnson’s long un-awaited Shakespeare book, I’m reminded of the Richard Evans New Statesman review of his biography of Winston Churchill, by Richard Evans, Regius Professor Emeritus of History, University of Cambridge:
As I walk away for the weekend, I would like to remind you all that people are good.
Dodo
@grumpy realist:
You know what I can’t understand? “Out of print” books in this era of e-books.
@Kathy: Prepping an e-book isn’t a zero cost process. Tracking down the original, if it is in an electronic form, and converting it, along with some proofreading. Are there images? Fancy formatting?
And then there is the case where your best alternative is to scan the pages of a physical copy and run OCR on them, restitch the text together, find chapter breaks, etc.
(I do think we need a copyright reform where things revert to public domain after 5 years of out-of-print status, allowing anyone to do that if they think they can make money on it. Information need not be free, exactly, but it shouldn’t be locked in cages either.)
(And then there are cases like Milan Kundera, who just doesn’t want eBooks of his work — although they will finally be released next year. The estate of Graham Greene was doing something similar, but they appear to have reversed course at some point. I get the whole “books should be paper” thing, but I’m old and need big, adjustable fonts and think accessibility should take priority to paper fetishes)
There are a bunch of books that I would like to revisit that aren’t available as ebooks.
I mean, I’m sure that there isn’t a huge market for Ivo Andric’s work in English, but he did win a Nobel prize for literature.
And one of my favorite books “Landscapes Painted With Tea,” by Milorad Pavic remains inaccessible.
It’s possible that I would hate them now, and that this lack of ebooks just makes my life a little nicer. I have a favorite book that will never disappoint me.
@Gustopher:
Granted. And some older science books may not be worth a penny to transfer to e-book (who’d want a popular biology book from the 50s? Other than for historical interest). But e-books require fewer resources than print. there’s no need for a press, ink, paper, etc. Therefore, a book that might sell a few copies a year forever, should be worth transferring.
I know, too, there’s the matter of rights. I don’t know how long a publisher can keep publishing a given book and what rights the author retains, etc.
My great hope for e-books (and for an earlier idea of books on demand), was that books wouldn’t go out of print any more, or rather out of publication these days.
@Gustopher: “There are a bunch of books that I would like to revisit that aren’t available as ebooks.”
For some reason, Robert Caro has refused an e-book release of The Power Broker, one of the great works of 20th century history, and one of the most unwieldy. His LBJ books are all available on Kindle, though.
@Kathy: “I know, too, there’s the matter of rights. I don’t know how long a publisher can keep publishing a given book and what rights the author retains, etc.”
There are a lot of collections of 40s and 50s science fiction stories and novels, most having dozens of stories for a buck — somehow I don’t think they’re worrying about cutting royalty checks to rights-holders…
@Gustopher:
Let me talk to you, sometime, about correcting OCR of academic papers for digitised searchable storage.
Footnotes, diagrams, formulae etc etc.
Yuck.
Also, how much I hate the copyright vultures.
But also, the pirates.
But, above all, the academic journal publishers.
Ah, my fervid dreams of the punishments I shall inflict, when I am God-Emperor of the Planet (wait yer damn turn, Elon)
@Kathy:
@Gustopher:
Ever read Rainbows End by Vernor Vinge?
If not, give it a go.
The “digitisation via shredding” plotline is a brilliant sorta-joke.
And, latest UK opinion poll:
LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
CON: 14% (-5)
LDM: 11% (+3)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 5% (-1)
@wr:
I’ve seen them, and I actually have a few.
In fact, I’m missing one story. I forget the author or title. It’s about a soldier in the present who gets taken to the future to kill an awful dictator. he does, but he also steals a bottle of soda he takes back to his time. I’m sure it was on one of these SF collections, but I cant find it in any of them.
It has the feel of an H. Beam Piper story, but it’s not in any of the Piper collections I have.
@JohnSF:
Didn’t he write The Peace War? I read that one and the sequel.
@Kurtz:
Haha! Methinks you stumbled into the wrong dive bar.
Nevertheless, I trust you are mustard adorned, so there’s that.
@JohnSF:
I’m an easygoing chap, but those bastards really are some bastardly bastards. May this one dream of yours come true.
@Kathy: What have you done to me?!?! I followed that link about Soonish and the page came up in Spanish. No big deal, I just closed my browser and opened Amazon…and it’s still in Spanish! Everything on the site.
I’m sure I’ll figure it out, but damn, if I can’t order from Amazon I might have to leave the house and deal with real people, and nobody wants that.
🙂
@Just Another Ex-Republican:
Better?
@Mimai:
I got kicked out quickly after trying and failing to use a barstool.
@Kathy:
That’s him.
Also worth reading, A Fire Upon the Deep and A Deepness in the Sky