Battleground State Polls

Ron Gunzburger (Politics1):

In Nevada, the KVBC-TV/SurveyUSA poll shows President Bush leading Senator Kerry by a 49% to 46% vote. In Colorado, the latest KUSA-TV/SurveyUSA poll has Bush and Kerry now tied at 47% apiece. In Washington State, the new KING-TV/SurveyUSA poll placed Kerry at 53%, Bush at 41%, and Nader at 2%. The contest in Missouri is close according to the new KSDK-TV/SurveyUSA poll. The numbers: Bush-48%, Kerry-47%. In Pennsylvania, a new Quinnipiac College poll give he lead to Kerry with 48% versus Bush at 43%. In Ohio, a new Gallup poll shows some very interesting results. Among registered voters, Kerry leads Bush by a 50% to 41% vote. However, among likely voters, the same poll shows Kerry leading by a closer amount of 48% to 46%.

I’m not surprised that Kerry is running away with Washington State and am encouraged that the rest are within the margin of error one way or the other. The “likely voter” numbers on Ohio seem about right; it would be stunning if that state was a blowout either direction.

These numbers comport with RealClear Politics numbers as well:

CT: Kerry 45, Bush 38, Nader 6
OH: Kerry 47, Bush 45, Nader 4
MO: Bush 48, Kerry 47
WA: Kerry 51, Bush 43
PA: Kerry Up 5 & 6 Pts in Two New Polls
MI: Kerry 46, Bush 42, Nader 2
WI: Bush 46, Kerry 46, Nader 2
NV: Bush 49, Kerry 46
CO: Bush 47, Kerry 47

Overall, Electoral has it at Kerry 301, Bush 213 at the moment while Scott Elliot at Election Projection has an even more sizeable lead based on his predictive formula: Kerry 327, Bush 211.

Clearly, this is Kerry’s race to lose at the moment. That’s not overly surprising given the fact that we’re in the middle of a controversial war. Plus, of the four biggest states, the Democrats have a virtual lock on two (California and New York), while the Republicans have only one gimme (Texas) with Florida as a perennial swing state (although trending Democrat owing to migration trends).

The Republicans need to have a very good convention.

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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. Joseph Marshall says:

    Yes, indeed, they do James. Save for an occasional flash of Terrorsploitation and a good old fashioned Texas mud-slinging campaign, with Mekong Delta mud, there hasn’t been much to suggest yet what a Republican Convention might even be about. And with that great oratorical ball of fire, Zell Miller, as the keynote speaker, we’ll all be on the edge of our seats waiting for it, I’m sure.