Bill Kristol, Oddsmaker
Bill Kristol concludes a longish op-ed explaining why the Bush presidency hasn’t been as bad as you think,
If Petraeus succeeds in Iraq, and a Republican wins in 2008, Bush will be viewed as a successful president.
I like the odds.
Now, I hope both those things happen. But how on earth could a serious observer “like the odds” of them both happening?
Any of the top three Democrats beat any of the top four Republicans in current head-to-head polls. The smart money is on 2008 being yet another close one and it’s quite conceivable that a Republican will in fact win. Only a sucker would take even money on that right now, though.
And the war? Even if we take the rosiest scenarios about how well the Surge is working, there’s a long row to hoe. Petreaeus himself thinks it’ll take years. Even Kristol has to know the public doesn’t have years worth of support left in them. So, at best, we’re likely to wind up with something that we’ll be able to call “success” that falls far short of the goals we set forth going in. That’s hardly likely to result in Huzzahs for Bush.
via Rob Bluey, who appreciates Kristol giving it the old college try.