Congress Spills the Beans on Russian Capability
The White House is doing damage control.
![[Top Secret Clip Art]](https://otb.cachefly.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/top-secret-stamp-magnifying-glass-clearance-large-e1527939454809.jpg)
ABC News (“GOP warning of ‘national security threat’ is about Russia wanting nuclear weapon in space: Sources“):
The White House’s national security adviser and leading lawmakers on Capitol Hill sought to allay public concerns on Wednesday after the House Intelligence Committee chairman warned of a “national security threat” related to a “destabilizing foreign military capability” so serious that President Joe Biden should declassify “all information” about it.
Two sources familiar with deliberations on Capitol Hill said the intelligence has to do with Russia wanting to put a nuclear weapon into space.
This would not be to drop a nuclear weapon onto Earth but rather to possibly use against satellites.
Still, “it is very concerning and very sensitive,” said one source, calling it “a big deal.”
While not addressing the subject directly, multiple members of Congress quickly described the issue as serious without stoking public alarm.
“We are going to work together to address this matter, as we do all sensitive matters that are classified,” House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters at the Capitol on Wednesday afternoon.
“But we just want to assure everyone steady hands are at the wheel,” he said.
Rep. Jim Himes, a Connecticut Democrat and the ranking member on the House Intelligence Committee, echoed that in his own statement, calling the warning “significant” but “not a cause for panic.”
“As to whether more can be declassified about this issue, that is a worthwhile discussion but it is not a discussion to be had in public,” Himes said.
Earlier on Wednesday, Ohio Republican Rep. Mike Turner, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said in a statement that his panel had “made available to all Members of Congress information concerning a serious national security threat.”
“I am requesting that President Biden declassify all information relating to this threat so that Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat,” Turner said.
He said he was making information on the matter available in a secure location to all members of the House in accordance with chamber rules.
Lawmakers arrived to the committee space throughout the afternoon to view the raw intelligence for Turner’s warning, inside a secure facility in the basement at the Capitol.
“it’s concerning,” Rep. Bruce Westerman, R-Ark., said afterward, though he didn’t address any additional details.
A letter sent to members of Congress from Turner and Himes, obtained by ABC News, indicated the threat is linked to “a destabilizing foreign military capability that should be known by all Congressional Policy Makers.”
NYT (“Russia’s Advances on Space-Based Nuclear Weapon Draw U.S. Concerns“):
The United States has informed Congress and its allies in Europe about Russian advances on a new, space-based nuclear weapon designed to threaten America’s extensive satellite network, according to current and former officials briefed on the matter.
Such a satellite-killing weapon, if deployed, could destroy civilian communications, surveillance from space and military command-and control operations by the United States and its allies. At the moment, the United States does not have the ability to counter such a weapon and defend its satellites, a former official said.
Officials said that the new intelligence, which they did not describe in detail, raised serious questions about whether Russia was preparing to abandon the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which bans all orbital nuclear weapons. But since Russia does not appear close to deploying the weapon, they said, it is not considered an urgent threat.
The intelligence was made public, in part, in a cryptic announcement on Wednesday by Representative Michael R. Turner, Republican of Ohio and the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. He called on the Biden administration to declassify the information without saying specifically what it was.
ABC News reported earlier that the intelligence had to do with Russian space-based antisatellite nuclear weaponry. Current and former officials said that the launch of the antisatellite did not appear imminent, but that there was a limited window of time, which they did not define, to prevent its deployment.
Concerns about placing nuclear weapons in space go back 50 years; it was even a sub-theme of “Star Trek” episodes in the late 1960s, just as the treaty was coming into effect. The United States experimented with versions of the technology but never deployed them. Russia has been developing its space-based capabilities for decades.
U.S. military officials have warned that both Russia and China are moving toward greater militarization of space, as all three superpowers work on ways to blind the others.
While the Trump presidency demonstrated all too clearly the need to have Congress in the loop on national security matters, this brouhaha illustrates the risks. As a general matter, the so-called Gang of Eight leaders are sober actors who can be trusted with the nation’s highest-level secrets. But there are far too many Members who can’t be and will go public on matters they don’t understand to advance their personal agendas.
It’s not at all clear that this debate should be playing out in public.
Seems pretty obvious to me that it shouldn’t. It’s classified intel for a reason. Or did Chicken Little Turner declassify it in his mind?
From what I can make our about what’s been reported neither “Congress” or the “Gang of Eight” did anything. Republican Mike Warner either took it upon himself to act without consulting anyone else, or at most bought in the other Republican House member. Reports are a little sketchy but it certainly seems this is another Republican going rogue and showing distain for the agreements and commitments he made.
@MarkedMan: @OzarkHillbilly: Turner is chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and thus a member of the Gang of Eight required to be briefed on these sort of issues. Unfortunately, he has pretty broad power to make things public.
Is there any chance Turner is trying to generate some pressure on Johnson to bring Ukraine funding up for a vote? He has certainly made clear that Johnson does or should understand the threat posed by Putin.
Who was the idiot who put him there??? Never mind, must’ve been McCarthy and his acolytes. That explains everything.
@Pete S: This occurred to me too. With a never-ending stream of nonsense coming from House Republicans about Ukraine, it wouldn’t surprise me at all that someone who actually realizes the geopolitical ramifications of caving to Putin’s wishes might have decided to try a different tactic.
This is so irritating. It comes across like a political attempt to score points against Biden about not being hard enough on Russia, and meanwhile, Republican members of Congress, certain talking heads and blowhard billionaires are openly cozying up to (checks notes) Russia.
@James Joyner: Unless this is all getting caught up in the politics of the Ukraine aid package deal which Turner supports. Russia is a bad actor after all. And then there is this news item:
Pentagon launches six satellites to boost missile tracking capability
Add the fact that Russia may have used a hypersonic missile for the first time against Ukraine. May or may not be tied together.
@James Joyner:
Right, and other members of the gang of 8 have made it clear he did not consult with them ahead of time. You said “Congress” and then “Gang of 8”, but the reality appears to be that it was Warner acting alone. That’s just the facts and there is no reason to dilute his responsibility.
@MarkedMan: Turner, not Warner.
@Kevin: Thanks, my bad.
Proof times the infinity that Republicans can’t govern their way out of a paper sack with instructions.
Republicans are not “the daddy”, Republicans are your drunk FoxNews uncle who you don’t allow to be in the same room alone with children.
Long story short, a nuke in space produces a huge electromagnetic pulse and little else. This can fry the electronics in unshielded (ie the vast majority) of satellites in range, the range depending on the nuke’s yield.
I’m not sure how groundside electronics would fare.
Mad Vlad can have as many nukes in orbit as he wants. I still fail to see an upside using them except in case of nuclear war, and maybe not even then.
@Pete S: Yeah, that was my reaction, too.
So far, the story is 98% bullshit. Last night it came out that Turner’s purpose was to support continuing Section 702 surveillance, which is currently in question.
Nobody knows whether this weapon is purely in Turner’s head or in Putin’s. Speculation is all over the map. People are wasting time on what is probably a big nothingburger.
@Cheryl Rofer: Thank you. The story wasn’t making any sense. I’ve been reading for decades that the Russians are soon gonna have an oogity boogity EMP something or other. And if they are close to some effective anti-satellite weapon, I don’t see how declassifying it helps our response. I was wondering if he was trying to set up some pretend missile gap to use against Biden. Or, since Citizens for Responsibility in Washington list Turner as one of our most corrupt congress people, maybe he has a financial interest in a company proposing some anti-EMP thing. 702 surveillance may make some sense.
@gVOR10:
I read an article about this a couple of days ago on dreaded, antiquated, uncool Yahoo News. Missile gap was the speculation in that one.
@Kathy: Oh you might want to look at the high altitude nuclear detonation tests done in the 50s-60s then. “Hardtack Teak” “Starfish Prime” etc. Nukes can be adjusted to emphasize different radiation “profiles” so the result of a detonation in space can vary. Some of my short stories uses nukes designed to optimize organic destroying radiation to bypass conventional “shielding” and armor.
TLDR Nukes detonating in space make EMP go brrrr on ground..
I don’t get what the big deal is about. This something that we’ve known as a possibility since the 50s. To assume Russia didn’t have or at least wasn’t trying to develop the means would of been dumb of us.
@Matt:
Glad it’s not just me whose initial reaction was thinking this is old news.
Rep. Turner’s play here was pressuring Mike Johnson on Ukraine aid, and he may have overplayed his hand. At least one of his Republican colleagues is crying foul, calling for Turner to be investigated.
@DK: funny enough that’s been my hope too.
Frankly, Republicans are a wrecking crew.
There are no norms, they’re all on improv.
I’m hearing anti-satellite weapons now..
Not new. There are several known ones. A satellite loaded with explosives (and not very powerful explosives at that; the fuel to maneuver to the vicinity of the target would be far more important and massive). Air launched missiles that can intercept the target’s trajectory (the USAF experimented with one carried on an F15 really high up).
These have been tested. An EMP pulse with a nuke hasn’t been, but it would certainly work. There’s been talk of ground based lasers burning up satellites, but no one’s tried that as far as I know. One might also load small missiles on a satellite, to launch and intercept a target. If you could achieve the right relative velocities, you wouldn’t even need explosives.
At that, you could mount a machine gun on a satellite and have it shoot at targets. A bullet would fire in vacuum, but orbital mechanics is not, to borrow a phrase, like dusting crops. A target even a few kilometers away might require substantial Delta-V, depending on the respective trajectories, which are dependent on velocity relative to the Earth.
@Kathy: Starfish prime was a detonation at 250 miles above the surface of Earth (you know roughly where the ISS orbits?). IF you look any of this up you will see what EMP effects were discovered. The soviets were doing tests too.
We’ve known since the 60s what happens if you detonate a nuke in low earth orbit. There’s a reason the outer space treaty of 1967 was signed in the late 60s..
I’m more inclined to the view that it’s a Russian nuclear powered anti-satellite satellite, rather than an orbital nuclear weapon system.
And Turner is blurring the distinction either out of ignorance or opportunism; most likely the latter.