Election 2010: Harry Reid Loses Senate Seat

Sherman Frederick, publisher of the Las Vegas Review Journal, is going out on a limb to predict that Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid will lose his re-election bid. In 2010.

In 50-plus months, Nevada voters will march to the polls and replace Sen. Harry Reid, thus ending one of the longer, more powerful political runs in state history. When it happens, political wiseguys will remember that Sen. Reid’s undoing came early in his last term when he became a big shot in the Democratic Party and quickly morphed into someone Nevada voters did not recognize — his political girlfriend in the House, uber-liberal Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California.

A good line. But predicting an election more than 50 months down the road? Rather silly, no?

. . . I find Harry, as an individual, magnetic — by that I mean I am very attracted to one side of him and very repulsed by the other. For example, I have hiked the desert with “blue jeans” Harry and listened to him passionately expound the virtues of mining, advocate appropriate wilderness areas and unashamedly defend the absolute need for putting federally held land in and around Las Vegas into private hands. I like that politically incorrect guy.

Then, I see some other fella on C-SPAN and “Meet the Press.” This other guy walks and talks like a lily-livered coward on terrorism, a crass political player on Social Security, a mute on abortion and family issues and Ted Kennedy on taxation. I don’t like that guy. And, I believe, most Nevadans are with me on that.

Nevadans who see Sen. Reid exercise his position as the Democratic leader of the Senate don’t see the hardscrabble conservative Mormon from Searchlight. They see a political transvestite who forsakes his home state to kowtow to the wildly liberal wing of the Democratic Party. When Harry meets Nancy on the national stage, they seem indistinguishable. Not because she’s him, but because him’s she. I know that’s not proper grammar, but it is a correct assessment from a Nevada perspective.

I’ve made similar observations about Reid here on numerous occaisons, minus the gender angle. Still, 2010 is a ridiculously long time away in political terms.

Related: Reid’s Support at Home Drops as D.C. Power Grows

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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. Patrick McGuire says:

    And even if this prediction is correct, so what? Much the same was said of Tom Dash-hole, he lost his re-election bid, and we end up with Dusty Harry. If Dusty Harry leaves, there is probably some other wing-nut out there to continue the tradition.

  2. Mark says:

    As long as we are in the prediction mode, I am going to predict that Senator Byrd will NOT be on the ballot in the 2018 West Virginia Senate election.

    Yes, I am putting my reputation on the line with this one, but boy am I bold!

  3. Steven Plunk says:

    Is this really a prediction or just a way to tell Sen. Reid that he is not representing Nevada the way the voters thought he would? I would guess it’s a message to the senator not a prediction.

  4. Its a prediction. The publisher has placed his bet. In 50 months, we will know if he is right. I suspect what will happen if his prediction stands up is the democrats will find a minority leader from a very blue state (and if they were real smart, one from a state they could afford to lose in a presidential election, i.e. not NY or California).

  5. Herb says:

    If the Nevada Voters like dirty politics, lies, misrepresentations and obstructionism, then dirty Harry will be reelected, prediction or not.

    If the Nevada Voters want someone who will represent Nevada and the USA, then the prediction will not come true.

  6. Zelsdorf Ragshaft III says:

    Herb, I guess you did not pay any attention to the last election. Most of the people in this country do not think like you. Even with the lies pouring out of the left run MSM, Most disagree with you.

  7. Herb says:


    I really don’t give a damn about what you or anyone else thinks of me. I guess you are one who subscribes and upholds the lies the left wing MSM print and say. So raggy, you can take your opinion and “STUFF IT”

  8. erg says:

    As Nevada’s Hispanic population grows,its becoming more centrist (from conservative). Kerry came within a few points of Bush here, compare that to the 25-40 point wins for Bush Sr. and Reagan here. Clinton did take it twice, but in both instances Perot took a very healthy chunk of the vote (27% in 1992, and 10% in 1996).

    My conclusion is that Reid will find his populace more in line with him than now by 2010.