Friday’s Forum
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I didn’t have a lot of time yesterday to follow the reaction to the Kevin Drum piece I linked to where he discussed a study from the Netherlands on gender dysphoria. There was a strong contingent that slammed it and as near as I can tell, here are the objections:
– The study found that rougly 12% of 11 year olds answer “Sometimes” or “Always” to the prompt, “I wish to be of the opposite sex”. This was challenged as obviously wrong because it can’t be that 12% of all children in the Netherlands receive puberty blockers. I’m not sure what to even make of that.
– Drum’s piece was called bullshit because the paper didn’t actually mention gender dysphoria but rather gender non-contendedness. From the opening paragraph of the paper,
It refers to gender dysphoria 32 times in the paper.
– Drum is ignorant or a lying or a lying liar who lies because he put the data in the paper in graph form and the original authors did not
Well, I think I will stop here. There was a lot of reaction but none of it seems to actually address the study. What does it mean for parents if their 11 year old expresses a desire to be a different sex? What is the right thing to do? As the paper (and our commenters here) point out, there is no easy answer. In this study, three quarters or more of those 11 year olds stopped manifesting that desire by the time they were 19. So ignore those 11 year old complaints? Well, there is a smaller group of children whose desire only strengthens as they grow older and who would be harmed by trying to maintain a gender identity that was false to their nature. They would benefit by intervening as early as possible.
The best, but unfortunately not good, immediate answer seems to me to be “pay attention to what that 11 year old is saying, but look to whatever additional screening tools are out there.” The longer term answer is, “More research like this is needed to develop better screening tools, so that we can intervene as early as possible with those children whose gender dysphoria is going to cause them lasting harm if not addressed, and the earlier the better.
Well, that storm left a mess.
Thank goodness we have a generator. Internet is out too, hopefully that’s fixed soon!
The headline of the day- Airplane passenger fined in Sydney for urinating in a cup
@MarkedMan: After reading Drum’s article and the comments, I agree with the comments that his graph is mislabeled. The statistics he uses in the graph are for gender-noncontentedness, yet le labels the graph as showing data for gender dysphoria. That is a big mistake.
It is almost inconceivable to me that Drum (or his editor) didn’t catch this mistake, and it does cross my mind that it was not a mistake, it was done to support his conclusions. This mistake, assuming it was an honest mistake, shows the danger of a layperson interpreting and re-stating data that they don’t fully understand. Before I retired I was a financial analyst. I would feel comfortable interpreting and commenting extensively on certain types of financial data. Certainly not a medical paper (unless having a couple doctors in the family counts).
The Sports headline of the day- Tiger Woods abstaining from sex to remain laser focused for Masters: report
@SenyorDave: Drum no longer has an editor. He is an independent blogger, whose main focus is the popular interpretation of research and data. Take a look at his blog and you will find a wide range of topics.
I agree that his article would have been better served and more accurate if he said something like, “What percentage of expressions of gender discontent are the result of actual gender dysphoria?” But this whole debate is just a way of sidestepping what the paper says, which I contend is important information for parents of pre-teens and adolescents who express discontent with their gender identification. Focusing on Drum’s sloppy use of a term in describing the paper seems to be an excuse for dismissing the research itself.
As for “bloggers should only examine an issue if they are an expert in the field”, and should not attempt to interpret or popularize research papers, well, I have to disagree. And I suspect that James, Steven and the other bloggers here would disagree too, as the majority of their posts do not concern the narrow area of their expertise.
@Jen:
NH had quite a lot of snow yesterday, didn’t it? We had snow and rain.
@CSK: We got about 14″ of heavy, wet snow. It took down a LOT of trees and power lines.
It’s all going to melt, temps are well above freezing, but it will be a mess for days.
ETA, but hey, at least we didn’t feel the NY earthquake!
@Bill Jempty:
That’s, um, that’s also why I’m abstaining from sex. For my golf game. Totally voluntary, doing it for the sport and all that.
@Jen:
What a mess you have to contend with up there. I didn’t feel the quake, either; I think it was mostly west and south of me.
@MarkedMan:
For those who didn’t see it, Beth posted a mini-manifesto on the Drum article last night that’s very much worth reading:
https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/thursdays-forum-188/#comment-2899214
@MarkedMan: I am not among those calling Drum a liar. I’ve read him daily for 20 years. I don’t think this was bad faith, I think it was him not knowing there’s a difference between. “Girls get to do X, wanna be a girl so I can do X” and “I am a girl”.
If a girl says, “I want to be a boy” they probably aren’t trans, because a trans boy is much more likely to say “I am a boy”. However, either of these statements is unusual, and should be taken seriously at some level.
I am ok with going as slow as is appropriate. The kid might be mistaken, or they might not. Blockers generally don’t cause permanent issues. I’ve run across one father on the internet who claims otherwise, but he was never specific, and I suspect bad faith. I’ve talked to families who tried an experiment on a family vacation, or a weekend with just doing a presentation swap. “Ok, Jimmy, you’re a girl this weekend”. And see how it goes.
Someone who isn’t trans is going to find this wears on them, and they will want to go back. Because that’s the exact thing that happens to trans people who haven’t or can’t transition.
Overall, there’s quite a few people out there who understand the issues and want to help trans people from transitioning, but understand and deal with these issues.
But yeah, there’s no blood test for being trans, so diagnosis isn’t going to be perfect. There’s a lot of medical situations like that, though.
@MarkedMan:
What does the paper say? What does Drum’s summary of the paper say?
I would contend that these are two very different things.
And then we have to get to the question of the paper’s reproducibility (often a problem with psychology papers, to the point where I would ignore an outlier until it is reproduced), and methodology (the use of “sometimes” and “often”)
If I’m reading the paper correctly, it is effectively saying that the “sometimes” camp at age 11 is not deterministic of anything in later years, while the “often” contingent is.
@MarkedMan: When you post on a subject and create a graph from data that you reference, it is not an opinion. Drum bases much of the column on his understanding of the data, and based on the graph he created, he doesn’t understand the data. Kind of a big miss. And if you are using a scientific paper as the entire basis for a column, maybe you should get an editor.
I have seen a lot of concerns about the upcoming eclipse in various media. Texas is thinking about activating the National Guard. We had an eclipse in 2017, and nothing bad happened to my recollection. These worries seem disproportionate. I guess that the Trump presidency eroded confidence in public institutions to a larger degree than I realized. Or maybe there is just a unthinking panic reaction to everything these days. Musk tweeted his concern about 138,000 immigrants entering the US each month. 138k would be 1.656 million a year. There are 330,000,000 Americans. The annual influx of immigrants is one half of one percent which does not seem like a big deal.
The activation of the Texas National Guard reminds me that I read that the Chinese emperors would set off fireworks and sky rockets during an eclipse to get the sun back. Perhaps they’ll do the same thing in Texas.
@Gustopher@SenyorDave: I just reread Drum’s post for the third or fourth time and I just don’t see where he offers much in the way of opinion. Yes, he does make the mistake of equating gender dysphoria with gender discontent, and that is definitely worth pointing out. But the post is just a brief description of the results of the study and there is nothing else I can see that he gets wrong. And Gustopher, I took your comment
as implying that Drum missed this. In fact, the only section he directly wuoted was the following:
@MarkedMan:
It just so happens that Drum’s “analysis” mirrors that of notable right-wing bigots:
https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/fact-check-no-a-new-study-does-not
I’ll except in a second. Please please please, I beg you, read this article.
Ok, so first thing this morning when I read @MarkedMan: I was seriously crushed. I highly value their opinions here and honestly, I think our politics align 90% or more of the time. It was hard to read that.
I am glad that Erin Reed responded to that study, which appears to be even worse that 1. I thought, 2. Drum presented. Last night I came across this
https://nypost.com/2024/04/04/opinion/believe-data-not-activists-transgenderism-among-kids-is-mostly-a-fad/
Drum, wittingly, or unwittingly fell for a right wing hit piece meant to harm trans people.
Excerpts from Erin:
I KNEW I should have looked into who was actually behind the study. I knew it was going to be a Scooby Doo villain.
@Beth: Well I read the headline and it said “Fact Check: No, A New Study Does Not Show “Being Trans Is Just A Phase”, which is absolutely correct and neither I nor Drum said otherwise. And the fact that bad people will twist research to suit their own agenda is not a reason to not do research.
Can someone please go ask Drum to get ahold of Erin Reed and retract his post.
@MarkedMan:
Please, read the whole piece. Drum and his graph highly implied that being trans is just a phase. Much worse people are using that study as proof that trans healthcare should be restricted. Good people like you are being fed the impression that 1. there are millions more trans people than there actual are, and 2. that the solution to the problem of trans people is to prohibit them receiving care. I gave details of why this is wrong. My story is not unique at all.
I am actually crying right now.
ETA: No trans people are calling for research to be stopped. We welcome good research. This is bad research presented in such a way as to make people’s lives worse.
@Beth:
The problem is too many “we need more research” people want to use it as an excuse to withhold access to the best currently available care for 20 years.
It’s the trans equivalent of the “instead of legalizing gay marriage we should get the government out of marriage entirely” people in the 90s. It was just an excuse for allowing the status quo to continue unchanged.
Finished The CEO of Hell, emailed it to my agent.
I am not wildly optimistic about its prospects, it’s one of those ideas I’ve had floating around in the back of my head. It is both obscene and blasphemous, but also disturbing. Hopefully funny.
Now I must go into my post-book funk of self-doubt.
@Michael Reynolds:
When you finish a book, do you feel a bit aimless?
@Beth:
As an aside regarding this particular garbage human, yesterday on Twitter (I’ll never call it X, fuck you Elon), Cheong had a mini-rant at Apple, believing his computer’s calculator was wrong because when he put in 50 + 50 and gets 100 then multiplies 100 * 2 it gets 200, but when he puts in 50 * 50 * 2 it gets 150 which is wrong, so what gives?
When told order of operations is a thing, he replied “PEMDAS is American and therefore retarded” and that it was his “opinion order of operations should be simplified like it is in Casio calculators” but of course those use PEMDAS too.
TL; DR: Cheong isn’t just a garbage bigot, he’s also a moron.
Some good news: According to Barron’s and Marketwatch, the price of stock in DJT has fallen another 26%.
@CSK: During covid, the price of a barrel of oil was negative at one point. That was obviously a short term, totally covid-related thing. My understanding of Truth Social is has no real value, even the infrastructure itself is pretty much worthless. I would love to see it go down to almost zero.
I just finished reading the Rawee et al study, and Mr Drum is most certainly spreading misinformation. I didn’t find the study worthless, but its not great (read the limitations sections if you are curious). What I’m curious about is the finding of both increasing and decreasing gender non-contentedness is associated with lower self worth and increased mental health issues. Why would a decrease still show this? We certainly can’t tell from this study (see limitations) because one three-choice question doesn’t provide any kind of granularity. Yet the anti-trans bigots will have a field day with this, with a nice assist from Drum’s little chart.
The first thing I always ask when seeing a graph or a supposed correlation is “what are the error bars?”
Given the sloppiness in Drum’s reporting and where this original “ research” came from, am suspecting the error bars run the length of the page…
@CSK:
My first thought is always, “OK, keep up the momentum, on to the next project!” To which my right brain says, “Fuck you, Michael, gimme a few days.”
You?
@CSK:
I want every MAGA to buy DJT stock. There are still many sheep to be sheared by the golden calf.
@Mikey:
As one who fatfingers his own email address, may I suggest you meant “50 + 50 * 2”. And I believe it’s properly called Xitter, with an “sh” pronunciation.
@Michael Reynolds:
I so appreciate both this feeling and seeing you write that… um… out loud?
Like I know post submission self-doubt isn’t just me… and yet I can’t bring myself to really believe that.
@gVOR10:
I am glad that I’m not the only person who realized this.
(Or more probably read someone write that some where, promptly forgot about reading it, and then gave myself credit for being witty!)
@Michael Reynolds:
At first, I’m pleased and happy, but kind of aimless. That lasts maybe 5 days, tops. Then I want to start something else.
@Michael Reynolds:
Yep.
@Matt Bernius:
Dude, I’ve FedEx’d (in ancient times) or emailed (in modern times) north of 150 manuscripts. Every single one I’m confident until one second after I hit, ‘send.’ Even mid-series I’ll think, ‘sure that other one was good, but this one sucks.’ Katherine’s just as bad. You need faith to get the work done, but once it’s done the ‘faith’ is no longer necessary and is dissolved by all that unleashed doubt. I think it just goes with the territory.
@Dutchgirl:
My guess, and I saw that yesterday and thought about it a bit, is that a lot of people experiencing “decreasing” gender non-contentedness are either working overtime to fit into gender norms and expectations that they can’t meet or lying to themselves. There are soooo many eggs out there. I saw one in the comments to Drum’s post.
For example, I have a friend who is a cis lesbian. She’s very butch and masculine. But critically, very much a woman, if closer to the non-binary side of things. She does not meet what is expected of a cis woman and has been taking shit about it her whole life. She also has been experiencing gender non-contentedness and a lil bit of dysphoria. Dysmorphia might be a bit closer to reality, but it’s a close mix of the two. She know knows a ton of trans people and realized that she can get gender affirming care and is working on getting her breasts removed. When she told me about this she was ECSTATIC.
Her experience with gender non-contentedness is leading her to get gender affirming care so that she can bring her body into alignment with what her conception of womanhood is. I cannot tell you how happy I am for her. Lol, one level horrified and jealous, but I get it and I’m stoked for her.
@Beth: I suspect the same. I also think that there are young people in the Netherlands that very much clue into the sexism and patriarchal gender parameters and reject that. I certainly did. I would 1000% have answered yes to “sometimes” wanting to be the other gender because I wanted to do activities reserved for boys. I do not identify as trans. Living in a world you perceive as unfair without the power to do anything about it may result in mental health issues, maybe.
I’m thrilled for your friend.
@Michael Reynolds:
There is a saying that goes something like this. “An author doesn’t finish. He or she just abandons it.”
As for whether what I just wrote will be a success or not, I don’t dwell on it. I just expect the worst.
@CSK:
I always feel burned out afterwards. My muse needs at least a few weeks vacation before going to work on the next book. Sometimes my muse is out of town for months.
I have finished two books since January 1*. Right now I’m working on a third and have two more lined up after that. They are my Hong Kong story, a short story collection*, One that begins with crashing in Kansas, one about somebody goes undercover in a Yakuza, and lastly a book partly set in the world of horse racing.
*- Both were mostly written when the year started. My three other upcoming books are also in various states of completion.
**- A zombie apocalypse/patient zero story (Admittedly PZ stories on screen or in the form of books have done many times, but not with the ending I came up with), a gorgon like creature on Corsica is the second part of my collection, two brothers who after doing a good deed face deportation is the third part, a day at a OB/GYN office after a world changing event is part four, and finally part five explains why no guy should try using the ladies room if the men’s room has an out of order sign on it.
@Bill Jempty:
I like that. I stopped doing public readings when I realized I couldn’t get through it without revising on the fly. I don’t understand writers who fall in love with their own words. It’s never completely right.
@Michael Reynolds:
No,it never is completely right. You may write a near-perfect sentence, but the whole thing…no.
@Michael Reynolds:
My muse has so many story ideas it is funny thinking of it. Some have been bouncing around in my head for 20 years or more.
First let me explain, there is a story universe I helped create where these alien machines are discovered by ordinary people who then use them for all forms of mischief. The trouble is- They are demonstration models and stop working after a few days time. So if you turn a cat into a dog and dog into a cat and the machine stops working, those changes are permanent.
Like
Is there a over 100 year old cow in the Mid west and was she responsible for the Great Chicago Fire?
A cold war story set in the 70’s and 80’s where Markus Wolf gets hold of one of those boxes and a CIA agent is given the job of stopping whatever Wolf plans to do with them.
A story where its discovered hundreds of those boxes are going to fall into the Pacific ocean. Who will get to them first, The Soviets, The Red Chinese, The United States, or a mysterious fourth party?
Set in WW2 remains of an army company fights a guerilla like war with Japanese troops in the area they are hiding from. A patrol comes very close to the camp one day and the men use one of those machines to disguise themselves.
A polygamist who just got a 3rd or 4th wife, finds one of those machines too.
Its not a machine story, but I have a partially written tale about a family that are in Witness Protection and need new identities after their first ones were discovered.
All of those stories but the War and Witness Protection ones have been hinted at in other books of mine.
@Mikey: Wait, I thought 50 times50 * 2 was 5000. Am I more innumerate than I thought?
I still use my old HP-41C programmable calculator, purchased early 1980’s.
It calculates using Reverse Polish Notation totally avoiding the sort of issues discussed above.
(RPN only seems weird if you are not used to it, once you are it’s totally the way to go).
@gVOR10: Ugh and far too late to edit…
Short update:
I took the day off to recover, it did not count against vacation time (the boss is actually pretty good about these things). The fever’s gone, and I’m feeling better. But it’s nice to stay home sick when one’s actually sick.
https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1776282144416972941
My emphasis, in case anyone is wondering how gigantically ignorant this critter is.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claims that the Jan 6 insurrectionists “carried no weapons” and were urged by Trump himself to protest peacefully.
This is such bullshit I don’t know where to start.
@Bill Jempty: that sounds like a very interesting continuation of some of the ideas in Roadside Picnic. If you ever write it, please let us know!
(I’ve got a book that’s been kicking around in my head for a while. Basically a parody of The DaVinci Code, but with financial shenanigans and faked art attached. And “impossible murders” and swapped identities as well. Basically the kitchen sink of conspiracies.)
@CSK: Black people are armed simply by being somewhere with their physical bodies. White people are unarmed even when carrying baseball bats, stun guns, bear spray, fire extinguishers, and flagpoles.
/s
@Grumpy realist:
I thought that was Foucault’s Pendulum.
@Monala:
Oh, indeed. Every time I see a Black person I scream in terror and flee in the opposite direction. /s
@Beth: Beth, you are imputing viewpoints and motives to me that I don’t have. My understanding, subject to better research, is that the number of trans or gender dysphoric adults is small, but it’s important we (ie those of us who don’t fall into that category) pay attention to their special circumstances. Their number certainly seems much smaller than the percentage of gay people, who, despite being a bit larger in number, are still oppressed as a minority. But that’s totally based on personal experience. I know exactly one trans person well (aside from yourself and a handful of others here that I’ve never met in person), but I have three gay people in my close family and know a half dozen more that I consider good friends. But, to me, that scarcity of trans people means they must especially be defended, and non-transitioned but gender dysphoric people? Defended even more! Even if, or especially because, they don’t know their own selves yet. Bigots go after small but noticeable groups. Jim Crow governance depends on identifying minority groups to oppress. The smaller but more visible, the “better”. I’m completely against that.
I don’t see research into this area as solely agenda driven. You lean in that direction. That doesn’t make us opposed, just tangential.
Ripley on Netflix may be the most visually beautiful TV show, ever.
@MarkedMan:
Even when published in a journal with an obvious agenda? You seem to be ignoring that part. Or are you simply discounting what Beth’s source said in: