GOP Vote Watch

ThinkProgress has a head count: click.

As of 6:22pm central time, it appears that 25 Reps have publicly stated their opposition to the Boehner plan. Due to absences and vacancies, Boehner needs 1 of those Reps to defect to get to 216.

Hence the delay.

FILED UNDER: Deficit and Debt, Quick Takes, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. legion says:

    Heh. If the House had at least passed something on to the Senate for summary derision, they’d at least have someplace to stand & criticize the other guys, but man! However this fiasco gets sorted out, I fully expect a complete leadership shakeup on the GOP side… the only question is – has Cantor made a big enough ass of himself that he’s no longer a viable replacement for Boehner?

  2. Ron Beasley says:

    “has Cantor made a big enough ass of himself that he’s no longer a viable replacement for Boehner? “
    In today’s Republican Party the answer is NO. The bigger the ass the better. Cantor is a Newt but not as smart.

  3. john personna says:

    Boehner needs 1 of those Reps to defect

    That seems pretty doable.

    At which point the Senate and President should just concede and sign. Keep powder dry for the next iteration of the same debate.

  4. jukeboxgrad says:

    Due to absences and vacancies, Boehner needs 1 of those Reps to defect to get to 216.

    I think the situation is much worse (for Boehner) than you think. You seem to be assuming that everyone who is not a declared ‘no’ is a ‘yes.’ Isn’t that a weak assumption?

    ThinkProgress has that list, and there’s also a list at The Hill, and there’s also a list at HotlineOnCall.

    NR also has a list, but I won’t bother with the link, because it hasn’t been updated since a couple of days ago.

    Anyway, I’ve compiled those 4 lists into one. They can be summarized as follows:

    firm no: 17
    leaning no: 10
    undecided: 28
    yes: 73
    not mentioned: 112

    I think the most important thing to notice is that last number. I think no one has mentioned that number, and I was only able to come up with it by compiling the four lists and comparing that compiled list to a full list of all 240 Rs in the house.

    This means that 112 haven’t said anything to the press. They haven’t even been willing to tell the press they’re undecided. They’ve just kept their mouth shut.

    Assuming no Ds vote yes before 216 Rs vote yes (and I think that’s a good assumption), that means Boehner can afford exactly 24 Rs voting no. There are already 17 firm nos. Boehner can afford only 7 more nos. The total of ‘not mentioned’ and ‘undecided’ is 140. 7/140=5%.

    Even if the 10 ‘leaning no’ all miraculously switch to yes, Boehner still needs at least 95% of the ‘undecided’ and ‘not mentioned’ to go his way. Why would anyone think that’s likely? Maybe it’s reasonable to predict that he would get 2/3, or 3/4, but 95%?

    By the way, 19 of the 112 ‘not mentioned’ are freshmen. Don’t we think they are likely to say no?

    The vote was supposed to be around 6 pm. It is now 8:40 pm. Boehner (or someone) said the vote would be tonight. When, at 11:59 pm? If he had the votes, the vote would not have been delayed at all, let alone this long.

  5. EddieInCA says:

    Which Congressman will be the one with a broken shoulder tomorrow from getting his arm twisted so much to get them to 216?

  6. jukeboxgrad says:

    I see that TP has posted an update. The effect of this is that someone has moved from ‘not mentioned’ to ‘firm no.’ So this is my updated tally.

    firm no: 18
    leaning no: 10
    undecided: 28
    yes: 73
    not mentioned: 111

  7. For any Republican in the House, the optimal situation is the following:

    a) Bill passes with 216 votes (preferably with half a dozen Blue Dogs)

    b) They loudly, proudly and boisterously vote NO

    Doing B allows for them to dodge a Tea Party primary as there will always be someone “purer” than them who can raise the crazy’s money.

  8. @jukeboxgrad: A fair point.

  9. jukeboxgrad says:

    I should mention that The Hill says this:

    EDITOR’S NOTE: Most, if not all, Republicans not mentioned on this list are expected to vote yes.

    Hmm, really? They don’t bother to mention that the ‘not mentioned on this list’ category is over 100 people. So how could they possibly know what all those people are thinking?

    dave:

    the optimal situation

    I think you’re exactly right, and this is a key point. Lots of Rs probably want the bill to pass, but they also want to vote no. This way they can’t be blamed for causing a default, but they can also claim ideological purity. And if a deal is reached despite them, they can always claim that it would have been better to stand firm, and nothing bad would have happened.

    I think this is why so many Rs are hiding their cards. They all want to be the one who votes last.

    But the bottom line is that Boehner is running around twisting arms and counting votes, and he simply can’t find enough people willing to say yes. If he did, the vote would have already happened. And if he couldn’t find those votes by now, there’s no reason to think that he’s ever going to find them. No one thinks that Limbaugh is going to rescue him. Tonight, tomorrow, or ever.

  10. EddieInCA says:

    What does the Market do tomorrow, a Friday, if the GOP doesen’t can’t pass a bill tonight?

    I’m thinking of setting some stop losses for the morning.

  11. john personna says:

    The more up-to-the-wire Boehner makes a passing vote, the less time the Senate has to demand changes and reconciliation. They are basically where they have to vote yes-no, but tomorrow more so.

  12. PJ says:

    No vote tonight.

  13. andrew says:

    “Assuming no Ds vote yes”

    There’s not a single person in the country who expects the Democrats to act responsibly, so no, none will vote for it. It would be funny if it wasn’t so sad.

  14. PJ says:

    Andrew, sad is the fact that instead of seeking a bipartisan bill by compromising, the House Republicans are instead going to go further right to hopefully, for them, be able to pass the bill.
    Which then would make the chance that the bill passes in the Senate even more slim.

    With a divided government, to act responsible is to compromise.

  15. jukeboxgrad says:

    john:

    The more up-to-the-wire Boehner makes a passing vote, the less time the Senate has to demand changes and reconciliation. They are basically where they have to vote yes-no, but tomorrow more so.

    No, I think that’s not how it’s going to be. Boehner is not going to get the votes he needs unless he turns his current bill into something that resembles Cut, Cap and Balance. As PJ said, Boehner now needs to move further right if he hopes to win over his tea party faction.

    Keep in mind that certain Rs in the house (e.g., Bachmann, Ron Paul, Connie Mack, Paul Broun) are against any increase in the debt ceiling. Period. Even CCB was unacceptable to them, because it opened the door to lifting the debt ceiling. They voted no on CCB, and they have come out against Boehner’s new bill, too.

    Boehner has greatly weakened himself by acting like he had the votes even though he didn’t have the votes. Whatever new song he starts singing tomorrow, it’s going to be hard for him to get people to take him seriously. Keep in mind that the 73 Rs that came out to support today’s bill have now been burned. They could ultimately pay a price for this ideological apostasy. So tomorrow everyone is going to be more cautious about saying yes to him. The hill he is trying to climb just got steeper.

    Tomorrow and Saturday will consist of Boehner continuing to spin his wheels and humiliate himself. He will succeed either in passing nothing, or in passing what amounts to a second iteration of CCB. And everyone will see that as pointless and a waste of time.

    Meanwhile, Reid is eating lots of popcorn and enjoying the show. He will have the senate pass his bill on Sunday. He’ll say ‘I have to finally act because Boehner is getting nowhere.’ Then Monday will consist of the house saying no to Reid’s bill. Or maybe enough Rs will defect, and Reid’s bill will pass the house.

    They’re passing a hot potato back and forth, and Reid has been pretty clever about making sure that Boehner is the one left holding the potato when the clock runs out. And what’s going on inside the GOP is looking more and more like a civil war. That will probably escalate on Monday.

  16. An Interested Party says:

    Ahh, those brave conservative warriors in the House of Representatives, standing up for the country by opposiong that dirty welfare program known as Pell Grants…I’m sure this will really help their position…

  17. An Interested Party says:

    Apparently my comment was caught in the antispam filter…if someone could release it, please…

  18. Hey Norm says:

    Clever slogans…OK
    Actually governing…not so much