Hillary in Trouble?
Ace vehemently disagrees with the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton’s record-setting fundraising is good news, noting that, despite her incredible advantages, she barely outraised relative unknowns Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
Without that done-deal Resistance is Futile mojo going, Hillary! has to fall back on the popular appeal of her cynical vote for the Iraq War as well as her highly-praised natural charisma.
She’s golden, baby.
Indeed. I don’t know if “InEVITAble” is an Ace coinage, but I like it.
UPDATE: Brian DeBose has an interesting piece in today’s WaTi noting that, not only has Obama run circles around Clinton in building a base among young Democrats, he’s making major inroads among the Democratic Establishment as well.
“He is building a strong organization in Iowa and New Hampshire, and as his momentum builds in those states, you will see more elected officials come along,” said Rep. Artur Davis, Alabama Democrat and one of the young politicians who has endorsed Mr. Obama, as have freshman Rep. Keith Ellison, Minnesota Democrat, and Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, a Democrat.
Mr. Davis predicted that by summer’s end Mr. Obama, will be tied in national polls with Mrs. Clinton — the New York Democrat and former first lady who is currently leading polls among Democratic presidential contenders — and tied or ahead of her in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Mr. Davis said that will begin to eat away at Mrs. Clinton’s biggest advantage — the elected lawmakers and union officials who make up the so-called “super delegates” who wield important clout in the Democrats’ nomination process. “A lot of super delegates want to be with the winner,” said Mr. Davis, predicting that Mr. Obama’s poll numbers would improve “in direct proportion as people get to know who he is. I mean his numbers move as soon as people get up to hear him speak and speak to him.”
Mr. Obama has already won the support of some establishment Democrats, including former Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota, and garnered the backing of two key figures in the key early caucus state of Iowa, Attorney General Tom Miller and State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald.
It’s quite possible that neither Hillary Clinton nor John McCain, the odds-on frontrunners a few months ago, will win their party’s nomination.
By my count, Hillary, Obama, Edwards, McCain, Rudy and Romney all broke the record for 1Q of year before the election fund raising. Some broke it by more than others.
Obama is benefiting from a short resume (which also means he has less baggage) and not being Hillary. Edwards tried to fill the role of not being Hillary, but hasn’t done it well. If he is pushed out, Obama is likely to benefit.
For Hillary, what she wants now is to keep as many people in the game as possible. To the extent that she can get the ‘not Hillary’ vote split, she does better.
McCain can still pull it out, but I suspect that he will withdraw before Iowa.
Kurtz’s piece on this in today’s WaPo suggests that Hillary’s money came primarily from a set of large donors, while Obama’s is from a larger number of donors, which supports the contention that the dollar figures aren’t telling the whole story.
I am confident Hillary Rodham Clinton will fall. But in case I’m wrong, get ready for a minimum four more years of Bill Clinton.