Katrina: Hurricane Forecasters Expect More Storms

According to hurricane trackers at Colorado State, there is a 43 percent chance of another major hurricane hitting the United States this month and 15 percent in October.

Hurricane Forecasters Expect More Storms (AP)

Amid the unfolding disaster left by Hurricane Katrina, Colorado State University researchers said Friday they expect more storms over the next two months. “The very active season we have seen to this point is far from over,” researcher Philip Klotzbach said. “We expect that by the time the 2005 hurricane season is over, we will witness seasonal tropical cyclone activity at near-record levels.”

The school’s hurricane forecast team of William Gray and Klotzbach said there is a 43 percent chance an intense hurricane will hit the U.S. coast in September and a 15 percent chance in October. The long-term average is 27 percent in September and 6 percent in October. The forecasters predicted five named storms — four of them hurricanes and two of those major — for September, traditionally the most active month for hurricanes. The team predicted three named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane in October.

The Atlantic hurricane season already has seen 13 named storms, including Maria, which formed Friday. Four storms became hurricanes. The 50-year average per season from 1950 to 2000 is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes.

Presumably, any storms that follow will pale in comparison to Katrina. Still, the Gulf Coast doesn’t need any more bad storms.

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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. Alan Kellogg says:

    On the other hand, the next storm could be worse.