Midterm Polling Challenges
Steven L. Taylor
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Sam Wang: Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years.
Fundamentally, it is about the facts that a) turnout is harder to predict in midterms (and hence polling for likely voters is harder), and b) the general level of interest in midterms is simply lower (often radically lower) than in presidential years.
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective.
He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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