Monday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Monday, May 17, 2021
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63 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Space Force CO Who Got Holiday Call from Trump Fired Over Comments Decrying Marxism in the Military
This may be too inside baseball but my experience is the Air Force Academy is a hotbed of right wing and Christian extremism and, coincidentally, fighter pilots are a generally insular clueless fraternity.
Since we often discuss what is and is not a cult…
http://www.reason.com/2021/05/16/cult-country/
Trump says the entire database of Maricopa County has been deleted. Stephen Richer, the Maricopa County recorder, characterizes this statement as “unhinged,” adding that he was looking right at the database on his computer at that moment.
Really good piece on the implications of viral aerosols vs. droplets. TLDR: If a virus is spread through droplets they fall out if the air very quickly, and distance is all you need. If they are spread as aerosols they will stay in the air until the virus breaks down. Concentration will continue to build up as long as infected people remain in a closed space.
And New Hampster wonders why its young adults keep leaving the state and why the state fails to attract similar.
Taken from a WSJ article on Biden’s free community college proposal.
Emphasis added.
By comparison, tuition at Northern Essex Community College, located in Massachusetts only a few miles south of the NH border
Mass in-state. for 12 credit/hours – General Credits $3010, Healthcare Credits $3970
New England Region for 12 credit/hours – General Credits $3166, Healthcare Credits $4126
Comparisons for 4 year schools is similar.
Given that college is where young adults begin building their professional networks, encouraging them to create those networks in a different state guarantees a certain percentage of them will never return except to visit.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-plan-for-free-community-college-faces-resistance-11621170004?mod=djemalertNEWS
@Scott:
Having spent the first half of my Air Force career working directly with and for fighter pilots, all I can say is: Yep.
@Sleeping Dog:
Actually, the yearly tuition at NECCO is $5280. Still cheaper, though. I’m glad something is cheaper in Mass. than in NH.
@CSK:
I pulled those costs off the NECCO website, though there were fees etc. they applied to both in state and NE Reg students so I didn’t add those in.
My NH resident nephew went to Salem State and his cost there was less, by a small amount, than his brother’s at Keene.
There isn’t much in Mass that is cheaper than NH, but if I were old and trying to survive on SSI or had a disability, I’d much rather live in Mass. NH is great place when your healthy and (reasonably) wealthy.
Again today a little interesting nugget from my BING opening page (besides a picture of a lovely Norwegian waterfront): This is the anniversary of the Brown v Board decision.
(Not a series! I promise.)
@CSK: Thanks for pointing that piece out.
I would like to think that anyone reading it might understand why I don’t think it is a useful analytical category the way it is often deployed in conversations here.
I just discovered my favorite FB group – “Oh sh*t, here comes an S, better put a goddamned apostrophe”
@Steven L. Taylor:
You’re welcome. I thought the distinctions the author drew were quite interesting.
@Teve:
Is there a support group for people who insist on referring to “German Shepards” instead of “German Shepherds”?
How about a support group for the Good German Shepherds?
@Mikey: Ouch! I hope you’re only referring only to AF fighter pilots and not Marines. I thought we were friends.
@Mister Bluster:
No, but there is one for Good German Shepherd‘s.
@MarkedMan: I was going to post the same article. Fascinating that the people making the case for Covid being spread by aerosols weren’t epidemiologists, but air chemists, physicists, and public health historians.
@Teve: Clearly, you are not a member of the “The importance of ending sentences with punctuation” FB group.
@Mimai: I don’t always. It’s a carryover from texting 😛
@Scott:
@Mikey:
@a country lawyer:
I had a late comment yesterday, to the effect that I’d known several (recovering) LtCol’s in the Portland area who were practicing attorneys when I knew them. IIRC, the ones who were short the full Happy Meal experience were USAF (Ret.). The one USMC (Ret.) I knew was a cool, rational dude, aside from his warped sense of humor (which absolutely matched mine).
@Steven L. Taylor: “America is a cult, not a democracy!”
(Just trying to tie together your pet peeves)
Looks like we may never know how many COVID deaths are occurring in India. And unfortunately, it looks like these people are just being left to die.
@Teve: America: its a cult, not a democracy.
(Don’t want Teve’s to feel left out.)
(Dame Autocorrect made you possess “to feel left out”, not gonna argue with her if she also wants to poke)
@CSK: That piece from Reason had this paragraph:
Well, this is a great example of why I resist “it’s a cult” as an explanation. It is the perfect way to avoid examining any of your own beliefs. It’s a fine way to avoid engaging with a belief that is different from your own.
I do want to respond. It can be a bit unnerving when a parent discovers they are not in control of their (adult) child. That what the parent wants is at odds with what the child wants, and by gosh, the child goes out and gets that thing that is terrifying to the parent.
However, that’s not quite how it worked for me. The way I’d write that paragraph is this:
“I barely knew my own child who was a cipher until she came out as trans. I discovered a person I didn’t know about for 19 years previously. That child was a delight to me. She was super unhappy that I hadn’t noticed her before, although I’m not sure how I could have known unless she told me. I set out to learn everything I could about people like her, and how best to help her, and I found that there’s a group of people with similar experiences who are willing to support and advise her, and I made an effort to make contacting them easier for her. It was hard on me, I had to change a bunch of habits, and I experienced a loss. I lost one child and gained another. It was also hard to wrap my mind around what was happening, but it was happening and has been happening for centuries, if not millenia, with or without my mind wrapped around it”
@Monala: The sad fact is that “Medical Science” is often just an exercise in statistics rather than a rigorous science. My experience with medical researchers is that they are maybe one notch above psychoanalysts when it comes to the scientific method, and at least psychoanalysts know they have a problem. What is a risk factor for high blood pressure? The color of your skin. Does anyone really believe that melatonin influences blood pressure? But if you go to Pub Med and look for “causes of hypertension” and you’ll find paper after paper that explores “risk factors”, most of which have little more than a “statistically significant” correlation (i.e. just enough to justify publication) with high blood pressure, and darn few papers that look at the actual mechanism that might explain this correlation.
So clinicians aren’t deeply rooted in the scientific method to begin with and you can add that they cling to whatever they were taught in Med School. 75 years ago someone declared 5um is an aerosol and 6um is a droplet? End of story and no further investigation needed.
@Jay L Gischer: Sure. But will you make a single Benjamin from that message? No, you won’t. In fact, it will probably attract mail from people asking YOU to give Benjamins to them. And it won’t turn your book into an online sensation or bring clicks to your website or get you an interview with Pat Robertson or Focus on the Family, either.
Priorities, man. Priorities.
@Jay L Gischer:
Yes. That paragraph struck me as well. Your version, I thought, was quite compelling, and very sensitively written.
@just nutha:
No. It won’t.
@MarkedMan:
The psychology replication problem is far worse than anything that the rest of medicine comes up with. And it mostly shows how hard it is to develop a good test protocol with psychology.
As a rule of thumb, even psychology attempts scientific method, but outcomes are so randomized among people that statistics really is all that they have. And statistics is a good tool.
Will a specific depressed or anxious individual benefit from drugs, talk therapy (“tell me about your mother”), or cbt/mindfulness? No idea, but about 1/3-1/2 will benefit from each (alas, overlapping 1/3rds, so some people just aren’t helped by any).
But, we have strong evidence that each approach will help many.
And physical medicine is not that far ahead, it’s just easier to structure an experimental study.
They are basically using big data as a replacement for a complete understanding of the underlying processes — which is good for getting treatments ahead of a complete understanding. Totally scientific method, just lacking mechanisms.
It’s been 12 days since I got the first Pfizer does. I should be a little over a week away from the second, but I’ve no idea whether that’s the case or not. I have to wait until the state government announces it, and that can take longer.
See, the federal government has documents summarizing the vaccines available, as well as giving general instructions on use. One oddity is that the second dose of Pfizer is recommended between 21 and 42 days after the first.
This could be how the government covers its collective rear end, or the reality of how many doses are coming into the country (given that most go to rich countries), or a means to hand out first doses to more people sooner (which seems to have had good results in the UK).
There’s no way to tell. Mismanaged at trumpian levels as the pandemic has been, vaccines are rolling out about as quickly as they come in.
Efficacy figures after a single dose vary wildly. I’ve heard from as little as 50% to as much as 90%, apparently increasing with time. I’m still being careful, and have seen no barbs, spikes, poisoned darts, bee stringers, wasp stingers, or thorns that apparently come standard with masks in the ones I wear. They must all be defective in that sense.
@just nutha: Defending the child against a cult of right-wing fanatics might sell pretty well on the coasts.
@Jay L Gischer: This is why I think gender reveal parties should be postponed until the kid is able to help plan it.
Ideally the parents won’t even know until then — the kid is ordering the balloons, fireworks, or massive explosive devices, and the parents are as surprised as everyone else when the mountaintop explodes with a pink, blue, lavender or other hue.
(“Kiddo, did something malfunction as we blew up that mountain range, or do you just have a gender that isn’t on this color chart?”
“Oh, god, you people are so old. Here’s the updated chart.”
“Huh, well even if we have to look this word up later to understand it, I just want you to know that we love you.”)
AT&T just announced they’re selling Warner Brothers, CNN, HBO, TBS, TNT, etc. to…
The Discovery Channel…
AT&T announces $43 billion deal to merge WarnerMedia with Discovery
If you thought CNN’s journalism was crap now, wait until it’s being produced by the same company that thinks the Ancient Aliens guy qualifies as a history documentary.
@a country lawyer:
Marine pilots are cool, they are devoted to the close air support mission and the guys on the ground. CAS was my job back then. If we ever got Marine Harriers in for training, we loved it, they knew exactly what they were doing and gave great rivet checks.
The craziest USAF pilot I ever worked with was a guy who came over from the Marine Corps and into the A-10. He was a hoot but tended to be a bit “too much” every now and again…haha…
I did work for one Air Force pilot, who was even an Academy grad (although you’d never know it, he wasn’t a “ring knocker”). During Desert Storm he earned a Bronze Star with Valor, which not a lot of Air Force guys had at the time. One of the finest officers I’ve ever known and a clear exception to the “Yep.”
For five years now I’ve been saying Trump was more than just a stooge, worse than just indebted. He is a traitor.
A total American withdrawal, ordered by the Commander in Chief.
@CSK:
I couldn’t help myself. I looked it up. It came from this screenshot tweeted out by the Maricopa Arizona Audit account.
I don’t know enough about database management/SQL to make a determination here. But two things:
-tweeting out a screenshot without context on a technical subject screams incompetence/obvious manipulation*
-some have suggested that they could have been duplicated files from the previous audits given the last accessed dates. Seems reasonable.
*And the obvious extension here: the Dems are so good at rigging elections that they can do it in a ton of precincts, in a bunch of districts, across states with different electoral procedures and different voting systems, over the course of decades and evade detection despite a bunch of investigations by Republicans, yet it all comes crashing down because they failed to adequately cover their tracks on a hard drive.
@Kurtz:
All that is is a list of files that were marked as deleted on that drive. It doesn’t mean anything more than that. We can’t tell where it came from, who gave it to whom, whether current versions of those files exist elsewhere, who deleted them, why they were deleted…hell, we can’t tell if current versions exist on that same drive.
What we can determine with total certainty is whoever tweeted that image thinks a lot of people are stupid enough and ignorant enough to believe it supports the Big Lie.
@Kurtz: @Mikey:
This won’t make a bit if difference to the Trumpkins. All they know is that Trump said the voter database was deleted. And Trump never says anything that isn’t 100% true.
The past couple days I’ve been going down the YouTube rabbit hole watching “foreign people react to American stuff” videos*.
Down in the rabbit hole, I stumbled across this video: North Koreans Try American Thanksgiving. There are two Americans (the host and the chef) and four North Koreans who escaped and are living in South Korea.
It’s worth watching–not just for the reactions to the food (other reaction videos are much more fun), but for the part where they say what they’re thankful for. We spend a lot of time here bitching about the US, but every once in a while we need to take a step back and understand that people are literally risking their lives to get into our country.
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In case you’re wondering: Korean women prefer Chicago pizza over New York or Detroit.
OMG.
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/military-retired-generals-admiral-jack-meehoff/
@Jax:
Jack. Me. Off.
Of course it was fake.
None of the sailors or military men I ever knew would’ve let THAT slide without recognizing they were being had. 😛
@Mu Yixiao:
Chicago pizza isn’t even pizza. It’s a casserole.
@Mu Yixiao: I love watching those videos. Irish people trying XXX were my favorite.
@Mikey: @Mikey:
Worst pizza I ever had in my life was at the Uno Pizzeria (Chicago pizza!) in Harvard Square. I was returning from a trip, exhausted, so I had what passed for dinner there. If you like an underbaked pie crust with some tomatoes and cheese atop it, cooked and served in a six-inch wide casserole dish, that’s your place.
@Stormy Dragon: I didn’t read the article, so I wasn’t aware of the direction of the transaction, but I had absolutely no idea at all that Discovery Channel had that kind of money laying around. None whatsoever!
@Mikey:
Sure. But understand that’s all covered in the context part of my comment.
My point in wording it the way I did was to avoid the obvious claims. Rather than state what should be obvious, argue against the assumptions.
By making the obvious objection, you get the reflexive response–don’t be a sheeple. By acting like a know-it-all liberal, you engage the emotional, grievance mindset. (Hence, “I’m not SQL expert, but…”)
Instead, the asterisk portion is meant to plant the seed that engages the WHAT aRE ThEY HIDING???!!!?? After that opening, something like, “Even Tom Brady knew to destroy his phone.” To the extent that anything would have an effect, something to grab onto in the back of the mind at a later date is more likely to make an impact.
And if they try to use the “I’m no expert line” against you, there’s plenty of ammo to shoot it down.
Going through the front door is a guaranteed failure.
@Jen:
Oh.
@Mu Yixiao: WA! That made me a little homesick to visit my Korean friends. But mostly I’m reminded of something that I read one time about Kim Jong-il’s goals for Korea that year: he pledged that he would try to make the economy good enough so that everyone would be able to purchase meat, live in a house with a tile roof, and eat rice once every day. Thanks for the link.
Opinion: Vaccines didn’t stop the Yankees’ covid-19 outbreak. But the case proves how well they work.
@Mikey: m
Heathen.
I’ve been thinking a lot about a patient I saw many moons ago. Really smart woman, accomplished, etc. Keen self insight. She had a remarkably acute onset/progression of psychosis. Mostly positive symptoms (auditory hallucinations), few negative symptoms.
Struggled for a year or so to find the right treatment. But the right treatment was indeed found. And it worked well. Remarkably so. Crushed the positive symptoms with only the mildest of side effects. For those who aren’t familiar, this outcome is sadly uncommon.
She was all good for about 6 weeks. Back to normal functioning, which for her was very much above “normal.” Then we hit a brick wall. Symptoms came back, she was inconsistent with the meds, etc. This is not uncommon per se, but her reasoning was noteworthy.
She felt lost without her interlocutors to do battle with. Despite a seemingly full and satisfying pre-psychosis, her post-psychosis life was unfulfilling, lacking a north star, etc. Her psychosis had become the focal point around which to orient life and perspective. She was unable (unwilling) to give it up, and she spoke eloquently about how this confused and frustrated her.
She didn’t want or like the hallucinations – they were terrible. But they provided a single focal point, a clear enemy that brought meaning, clarity, etc. She recognized the destruction to self and others, but just couldn’t easily give the hallucinations up. She said that she actually enjoyed having an enemy, several of them, and that this was a revelation to her and very much against type.
It was a deep, befuddling, inspiring, demoralizing, amusing thing to be present with. It invoked all kinds of thoughts/emotions from me. She eventually dropped out of treatment, with no follow-up or update whatsoever from her or her family. I think about her a lot.
@Kurtz: I get it. But I’m an IT guy by degree and profession. I can’t help it, I will point out the obvious. I suppose it’s naïve to expect my professional experience to carry credibility with those targeted.
@Mikey:
True in general, but there are important exceptions here and there. I had the privilege of working in an organization led by General Larry D. Welch, former Chief of Staff of the Air Force, who started his military career in the Kansas National Guard, in Artillery, before enlisting in the Air Force and becoming a fighter pilot. It would be hard to find a smarter, shrewder, or more generally clueful leader.
@Mu Yixiao: LOL, I’m about 2 months ahead of you. Yeah, that was a pretty awesome series.
Have you seen Xiaomanyc (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLNoXf8gq6vhwsrYp-l0J-Q)? An obvious anglo who unexpectedly speaks whatever the locals don’t expect anglos to speak (Fujianese, Wolof, etc.) Ignore the recent ones; go back toward the beginning of the channel.
@Mikey:
New York pizza isn’t even food; it’s toppings on cardboard.
@Mimai:
I remember reading (Oliver Sachs?) about Tourette’s patients who eventually gave up on their medicine, or took it only for very specific occasions, because subjectively it made them feel slow and stupid and boring. They hated the twitches and spontaneous verbalizations, but hated losing that mental edge even more.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
They don’t. It’s one of those debt financed deals I don’t get how banks keep signing up to be on the hook for.
@Jen: Shows how little I know. I didn’t know that brand of root beer even existed anymore.
@Mikey: All due respect, but Chicago pizza is diverse. Only tourists think it is limited to deep dish. And UNO’s is an abomination. My brother and I got food poisoning in the Baltimore one twenty five years ago and I’ve never gone back. But I did have a great thin crust with fennel sausage on the South Side last week. Would have liked to try the extra thin crust but my friend wasn’t up to it. And this was in a local joint that has been there at least 50 years and to this day only serves four beers on draft, all lagers. (Bud Light, Miller, Old Style and Modelo, the first three unchanged in that half century and the last one added as a reflection of changing demographics.)
@DrDaveT: Yes, it’s those types of symptoms – the “excessives” – that can be so very difficult and confusing…..to patients, families, and providers. You see this a lot with bipolar disorder.
The interesting thing wrt the patient I wrote about was that her symptoms resided both within and outside of her (note, this is her perspective on them). And it was these outside symptoms that provided a newfound clarity of purpose……all the while being destructive, frightening, etc. Humans.
@DrDaveT: I have never understood why New Yorkers even think their pizza qualifies as food. The only good “New York pizza” I ever had was from a pizzeria by that name in New Orleans. I am willing to lay odds the owner was from Chicago.
@Mimai: My youngest daughter’s Dad is an untreated paranoid delusional schizophrenic. He cannot survive without someone to call out, to “fight”, even if the people who are after him are just in his own mind. He is unable to recognize or understand peace or people who love him and have his best interests in mind. It’s a really crazy situation to be in, that nobody can make him get help, hear him begging for help, but when he lands in jail, they say “it’s his own choice”.
@Mimai:
Hmmm… This seems like a subtle something…