Romney Fades in Florida

Mitt Romney's poll numbers in Florida have shrunk. Perhaps he needs to be on cable TV a bit more often.

The newest PPP poll of GOP voters in Florida shows Mitt Romney in a seeming free fall. In March he was at 52% but down to 28% (although still in first place, if barely) in October. Now he is slightly behind Huckabee at 21%:

The poll we did last week found him at only 21%, behind Huckabee’s 23%, with Gingrich at 18%, Palin at 13%, and others combining for a total of 15%.

Now, it is early (over a year early, in fact) and is in the absence of any actual campaigning, save for reality shows on TLC and chatting about the news on FNC. As such, we cannot take too much away from the numbers at this time, especially in terms of what it means for Romney’s chances. Indeed, of the potential candidates named, he is the only one not making regular TV appearances at the moment.

Having said that, it will be interesting to see if the TV-based strategy of Palin, Huckabee, and Gingrich end up being the smart one when we hit the real primary season late next year/early 2012.

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Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. More and more Romney looks like Rudy Giuliani version 2.0. Right now the 2012 field is looking really weak and the GOP has a penchant for choosing “heir apparents”, but I am not so sure that’s Romney right now. I would say that he definitely loses Iowa right now, does fine in New Hampshire and them heads South and loses South Carolina and probably loses Florida leaving him wounded going in to Super Tuesday. All-in-all Romney has an outside shot, but no one should take him seriously. Don’t forget the amount of coverage cable news gives to anyone with money. I think Romney struggles to be legitimate.

  2. michael reynolds says:

    Floridians are surrounded by various reptiles and may be acting out of a general prejudice against lizards.

  3. JKB says:

    As people start paying attention for the next Presidential, Romney will fade everywhere. He’s Obama light and then there is this:

    MIT economist Jonathan Gruber, who helped design the Massachusetts law, told The Wall Street Journal in April that “if any one person in the world deserves credit for where we are now [with passage of the new federal law], it’s Mitt Romney. He designed the structure of the federal bill.’’

  4. steve says:

    It will be Palin.