Saturday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
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49 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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The next step in Musk’s wrecking of Twitter.
Twitter to limit use of text messages for two-factor authentication to paid subscribers
Sure, one can still use an authenticator app or hardware security key, but the former is a pain to set up and the latter is challenging on mobile devices. So plenty of people who don’t want to shell out $8/month for access to a site that’s increasingly terrible will just do neither and thereby open themselves up to hacking.
Here’s the stated rationale, basically the company is losing money on bot scam SMS.
Whether “telcos” are guilty of this is debatable but removing the feature for non-paying subscribers doesn’t solve the bot problem, it just makes it worse while letting Musk make a big show of washing his hands.
The other day we had an argument about a racial epithet that almost became a conversation. By my reasoning a conversation among people who disagree occurs when the participants accept the good intentions of others and spend as much time trying to suss out their perspective and thinking as they do in stating their own views, and rate that understanding as important as trying to sway others to their own opinion. An argument, of course, is a dialog in which we hastily skim what our opponents have to say before we once again begin lecturing them on how wrong they are.
I was more in the argument camp than the conversational one, but I definitely saw hints of something better and it’s caused me to contemplate how I engage.
The first two seasons of Picard were available in Mexico only on Amazon, despite Paramount+ being around locally by the time season 2 premiered. The third is on Amazon, but also on Paramount+.
This keeps me from cancelling the latter but also of re-subscribing to the former.
@MarkedMan: I try to be better too. I still fail too often.
‘Not much time left’: Salt Lake City’s mayor on the Great Lake drying up
I suspect every one here knows of this unfolding disaster so I am just going to cut to the chase:
I just added this to yesterday’s big brouhaha, putting here also:
I posted this link way upthread before getting around to reading it myself.
It’s very long but well worth a read, lots of perspective on this stuff. (And I now better understand why I got so viciously attacked as some sort of supposed bigoted anti-trans activist – lot of examples in the link of similar behavior).
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-transyouth-outcomes/
Tiny excerpts, there is way more.
snip
@charon:
The rest of it:
snip
@OzarkHillbilly:
If the R super majority in the Utah legislature understood the problem (and cared), they’d do something.
Tucker Carlson described Trump as a “demonic force.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/ews/world/americas/us-politics/trump-fox-news-tucker-carlson-latest-news-b2284973.html
@Sleeping Dog: I think the only thing they care about is how their voters will feel about being told they are gonna have to do things differently.
“This is Amurika, Goldurnit! FREEDUMB!!!”
Considering their response to covid and the #s of dead red staters far outweighing the #s of dead blue staters, they really don’t care how many people die as long as they can remain in office.
@CSK: I guess there are limits to Fcker’s lying after all.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Fox wouldn’t let Trump on the air on Jan. 6:
http://www.businessinsider.com/fox-news-trump-on-air-on-jan-6-filing-claims-2023-2
@CSK: Yeah, Lou Dobbs’ show. That Independent article you linked said as much too. I am more that a little surprised that they acted responsibly that day. I’m pretty sure all those people have been fired by now.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Well they didn’t want to wear masks for Covid, it will be interesting to see whether they’ll shrug at toxic dust that will be visible in the air.
SLC has been a popular spot for businesses to set up back offices. Employees are happy to transfer there as the cost are moderate, the city is clean and well run, good education system etc, how willing will companies be to locating or expanding there with a continual health threat?
We see it all the time, Americans are great at sleepwalking into disaster.
@CSK:
@OzarkHillbilly:
He might have meant to insult demonic forces.
@OzarkHillbilly:
I recall reading somewhere that on January 6 Hannity and Ingraham were exhanging text messages about how Trump should call off the rioters on the Capitol. I think they tried to get through to Trump, but I’m not sure.
@charon:
You know, for someone who supposedly doesn’t know anything about this issue, you’re just a never-ending fountain of TERF talking points.
I’m sure there are people who are harassing all people who detransitioned and the people doing that harassment ought to be deplatformed just like any other group targeting minorities. That said, most of the trans people I know are very sympathetic to people who detransitioned. But a distinction needs to be made between people who detransitioned in general and the small sub-group who are using that status to get into the right-wing grifting circuit in the “token who attacks other members of their own minority” role.
That is, a lot of the “harassment” toward people who detransitioned is not harrassment, but criticism that they’re going around giving speeches about the “transgender cult” or how transition needs to be replaced with what amounts to conversion therapy. The mainstream media further exacerbates this problem by bringing in people who work for right-wing activist groups but failing to disclose that relationship and instead portraying them as random members of the public (e.g. quoting Sinead Watson without mentioning she works for Genspect).
If you follow the reference link, you find a meta-analysis of 27 studies, where all showed a regret rate of <1% except for one study that's at 25%. But in the world of mainstream journalism, that one study is just as valid as all the others!
I do not see the relevance of what I think, maybe focusing on me a diversion?
Think what you like, whatever.
@Stormy Dragon:
I could not find/did not see your reference linky, but at the end of my Reuters link there is this:
The numbers in the sequence of studies cited:
2.2%
<1%
2%
25.6%
8.3%
13.1%
Not quite a match for your meta study. Maybe you have some skin in the game. What I see is (possible) confirmation bias and (possible) motivated reasoning.
@charon:
Of course you do, which is why you’re pretending to be a disinterested third party when you’re clearly not.
@charon:
https://journals.lww.com/prsgo/fulltext/2021/03000/regret_after_gender_affirmation_surgery__a.22.aspx#:~:text=The%20prevalence%20of%20regret%20among,patients%20regretted%20having%20had%20GAS.
Yes, I have a lot of skin in protecting members of my community from those wishing to do them harm.
Transitioning and de-transitioning are big decisions. Of course there will be some regret. All big decisions come with doubt and regret. As the treatments and surgeries improve, this may come to be a bit like a face-lift, or stomach stapling – not common but not worth rending garments and sacrificing a goat. Something which was fixed is now fluid thanks to science, and it is, in the end just another extension of homo sapiens’ constant encroachment on the laws of nature.
I take a bunch of meds which fuck with nature to my advantage. I have the cholesterol of a young athlete. (Thank you, Zocor.) I keep muscle mass and fight weariness with testosterone. I use drugs to keep my blood pressure down. And that’s just some of the pharmaceuticals. Not even getting into the mood-altering drugs (marijuana, alcohol, Wellbutrin, tobacco).
The very word, ‘de-transitioning,’ suggests that we are dealing with a choice which may turn out to be wrong, but which it seems can be reversed. Unlike say a teenager’s decision to drink and drive and run over a child. Teenagers are crazy, dangerous people high on hormones and resentment – at some level they’ve just found a new way to freak their parents out – that was my honest reaction: Oh, FFS, more shit to deal with when I just want to watch Househunters International. Maybe this is not the earth-shattering change we’re treating it as. Maybe it’s just a nose job.
Here’s some research someone can do: compare the rates of regret for transitioning, and compare them to the rates of regret from butt lifts or eye tucks. Betcha more people regret plastic surgery than regret transitioning.
@Stormy Dragon:
From your link:
My emphasis: Apples/oranges, the Reuters piece is about minors transitioning, as are the studies Reuters cites.
Ad hominem.
Here’s this:
Also this:
Measuring regret is a tough thing to do because there are so many kinds. There have been studies that show a high incidence of “regrets” among people who have had bariatric (weight loss) surgery but, from what I’ve been told from researchers connected with this community, the primary dissatisfaction is that after a lifetime of “othering” due to their weight, they had super high expectations about the changes that would come about when they lost that weight. But their family and friends were still the same, and lots of thin people have all kinds of trouble in their lives. My point is that sometimes something that has great medical benefits, something that is the right thing to do, doesn’t lead to last-15-minutes-of-the-RomCom happiness and it might take a longer look before the overall result is clear.
Based on the one male to female trans person I know well (a complex and somewhat difficult person with a fundamentally good heart and whose transition is, to me, not the most important thing I need to think about in my relationship with her), as well as the commenters here, the studies Charon and others have referenced, and more, I would be surprised if the percentage of adults who had transitioned and regretted it was more than a few percent, and those few might well be dealing with other very significant issues. Based on my knowledge of children in general I’m more skeptical of permanent life changing decisions made at early ages, but even then I would be very surprised if the long term regrets percentage was higher than five percent and, of course, that has to be balanced against the very real damage delays can do. As in so many things, if we could do a blood test at three and definitively show that a particular treatment would definitively result in the best outcome we could start at an age before the child was even aware of the issue and save years (formative years) of trauma.
I don’t think attacking every single researcher who looks at this and comes up with discomforting data is useful. There are many areas of science that are walled off and make no progress because any researcher that looks into it will find their career destroyed. It’s sad if that causes us to lose decades in the quest for cold fusion, but it is tragic if that causes children to undergo unnecessary trauma.
@MarkedMan:
Data is just data, information is just information. The fact that bad actors can use information maliciously does not discredit the information.
No need to belabor the obvious about who the bad actors are, or their likely motivations and goals.
Somewhat funny, but also sad and pathetic story: in the UK, where transphobia is going strong, there’s an organization called the LGB Alliance, which seems to exist to fight against trans people.
Recently, a member of this alliance had a civil union ceremony with his partner. He has been posting about it on Twitter. Among the bizarre elements of his ceremony are these:
– He and his partner vowed to “always be honest with one another” about the fact that “a man is an adult human male, and a woman is an adult human female.” As many on Twitter have pointed out, how sad that they made anti-trans statements as part of their vows, instead of professions of love for one another.
– They chose a civil ceremony rather than a church wedding, because they believe that marriage is between a man and a woman. Yet they refer to one another as husbands.
– I learned from many of the responses that civil ceremonies in the UK are not allowed to have any religious content whatsoever. This has apparently been the law since the 19th century, and that law has was first promoted by the church, and continues to be sustained by church advocacy.
– Despite this, and knowing this, the couple in question try to read a Bible passage during their ceremony. They were told to stop and did not, so they ended up getting kicked out of the ceremony by the registrar. The main guy on Twitter is now complaining about how they didn’t even have a chance to kiss, and how they were discriminated against.
— And of course he had to go there, tweeting the following: “The day that was supposed to be the happiest of my life but we were not allowed to kiss or exchange rings because my vows were not woke. Cancel culture is everywhere now.”
— link for the last tweet, but there are many others.
Word on the street is that Jimmy Carter is entering Hospice care at the age of 98.
Carter remains one of the finest human beings ever to hold the office of President of the United States, and this country will be worse when he is no longer with us.
@Michael Reynolds:
Detransitioning also generally includes the folks who start down the path of transitioning from A to B, and then realize that they are non-binary and that the right spot is not all the way to B.
So a lot of those numbers are inflated.
(Which, if you look at the commonly cited 94% figure of people continuing to identify as their transitioned gender (with an implied 6% detransition rate), and the 1-2% medical regret rate, makes a lot of sense)
@charon:
Is it you? Are you the bad actor?
President Jimmy Carter, 98, has entered home hospice care.
@Tony W: Jimmy Carter truly is a great man. By far our best former president.
I hope he passes peacefully, in comfort, and surrounded by loved ones.
@Kathy: I doubt it. He is a demonic force.
@CSK: I read something along those lines as well. As to trying to get thru to trump, I seem to recall a conversation with Meadows. Who knows what was said.
Heh. That perfectly captures the look on my old man’s face every time I walked thru the door. I honestly think there came a point where he just quit trying and just hoped I might survive to adulthood.
@Tony W: Shit. Inevitable, but still sorry to hear it.
@MarkedMan:
Attempting suicide is also a permanent, life-changing decision made at early ages, which may or may not be included in “the very real damage delays can do”.
The TERF crowd does real harm not just by being awful hateful people spreading hate, but by making research into medical decisions where sometimes you are balancing least worst options against each other nearly impossible to be done objectively.
No one wants to be cutting people up, or stuffing anyone chock full of hormones. It’s icky. It’s unpleasant to think about*. But, right now, it’s the best alternative that allows people to live happier lives.
With the regret rate as low as it is, we should be doing more, earlier transitions and interventions, and doing longitudinal studies to find out what should happen when. But there’s going to be a chilling effect on that research knowing that results are going to be pulled out of context and used as political points by TERFs and those “just asking questions” who “have no viewpoint of their own” (just a shitload of TERF talking points).
We’re experimenting on kids. That should make people uncomfortable and cautious. But that’s what medicine is — a series of experiments on the patients, tracking success rates, developing new techniques and treatments. The TERF crowd is weaponizing that inherent discomfort, and using it to promote bigotry.
——
*: cancer in kids is also icky to think about, just to put a little context on that.
@Gustopher:
New information. Thanks. (I’m hoping that the source is credible but am sure that someone will attack you about it, allowing me to clarify the origin. 😉 )
@Michael Reynolds: “Betcha more people regret plastic surgery than regret transitioning.”
I’d think so, if only because there’s such a low bar to getting plastic surgery, while it seems like a huge amount of effort to go through surgical transitioning. It’s five pm right now, and if I suddenly decided I wanted a new nose, I bet I could find a reputable place to do it before 6. That easy makes snap decisions possible… and that’s where you get regrets…
@wr:
First, gender presentation, bone density, orgasm attainability etc. are a lot more consequential than whether someone is satisfied with their tummy tuck or butt lift.
Second no one has much reason to care much about someone else’s level of satisfaction with their botox injection or Jolie lips or whatever. Regrets over transitioning maybe a bit more concerning.
Third we have a fascism-adjacent major party here working the standard fascist tactic of riling up the rubes against a vulnerable minority, complete with inappropriate government meddling to exploit the situation.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
For real? I do not know where the smart fellow gets it from, but that point is made over and over and over in the Reuters link I put up, take a look.
I am not loving the administration’s response to the train derailment and chemical spill in Ohio.
I’m a medium-lazy guy. The only information getting through to me is Pete Buttigieg tweeting out generic platitudes, and the headlines and ledes of articles I don’t click on. I could dig in more, but I don’t wanna. I’m trying to be a low information voter here. Let’s pretend that I am doing it as an experiment to try to understand how normal people interact with the news, rather than a sudden profound disinterest that strikes me at the mere mention of Ohio.
There might be a quiet, competent clean up going on, but there is it isn’t being effectively publicized. If a massive chemical spill is cleaned up and no one is touting their accomplishments, did it really happen?
Pete Buttigieg is a really good communicator. It’s one of his strengths. When he’s not giving people information, mildly against their will, that is definitely a choice.
We presumably have an EPA. Probably. And it’s very quiet.
At the very least, the White House communications team needs to be stepping up. Fill the void of information that leads to speculation and misinformation. Are pets really dying? Are there children playing in fields right next to people in HazMat suits? Are there three headed salamanders rising from the ground and marching on Cleveland? I’ve heard of two of those happening, and only think one of them is particularly plausible.
@Gustopher: hospice is a wonderful program and it is very likely that he will do just as you say.
@Gustopher:
The last thing first responders need is a gaggle of press, and about the last thing the gaggle likes to do is go to Ohio in winter and stand in a pool of toxic chemicals.
Let the NTSB do their thing. They’re pretty damn good at it….in no small part because they take their time.
@charon: your first and third paragraphs contain valid points, but not this one:
Why? Why should anyone unconnected with the individuals involved have any more reason to be concerned about someone transitioning than they do about someone getting plastic surgery?
@Monala:
There is a phenomenon called empathy, are you aware of it?
In any case, this is a very politicized subject, a lot of people do care, it’s not up to me to explain why people care about stuff – but I do take an interest in the effects of that.
Quoting Stonekettle…..All the self awareness of a dog licking his ass on the street.
@One American:..OMG
Conflicted? Insecure?
We all know that your presence here is a pitiful cry for help.
Texas considering new law to ban all transgender health care, regardless of age:
https://legiscan.com/TX/text/SB1029/id/2707852
@Stormy Dragon: It’s almost like they’re TRYING to turn Texas a much bluer shade of purple. And they really took that “the cruelty is the point” to heart.
@Jax:
TX is light red and expectations of it getting even a bit purplish never pan out.
The big cities keep getting bluer without any effect at all on the red statewide control.