Your task, should you wish to accept it, is to explain which of the GOP primary candidates you would pick to win the 2024 presidential election campaign against Joe Biden.
Which of the declared (or, undeclared, if you like) do you think would be the Republican’s best chance to retake the White House? Please indicate why you pick the candidate you picked.
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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I don’t think there are any good options. Donald Trump, the worst possible option, is going to get the R. nomination and then, presumably, lose the general to Biden.
I say “presumably” only because I’m no longer 100% positive that Trump will lose in November 2024.
Trump. His supporters are voting affirmatively and turnout will be high. The rest fo the GOP will be voting against Biden. Too many Democrats still cant believe that people will vote for Trump, especially with 4 indictments, so they will take a win for granted. Unless Dobbs is actively on a state’s voting slate turnout wont be that high.
Republican unelectability is bimodal. There are maybe 3 people who can beat Biden in the general.
Candidates who are too “centrist” are right out, because the hardcore MAGA are never showing up for that. Biden will mop up among the anti-Republicans, anti-MAGAs will vote but don’t make up enough of that party to swing it, and MAGAs will be 50/50 because at heart they’re not about policy, they’re about their guy.
Candidates who are MAGA but show any anti-Trump tendencies are also right out. Anti-MAGA will not vote for this person. Just not happening.
So if it’s not Trump, they need to find the sweet spot – Trump-MAGA enough to get out that vote, but looking all respectable-like to those people who just can’t bring themselves to lever for a Dem.
Ranked and justified:
Donald Trump – Rerunning 2020 is the most frightening prospect. He can drag out all his voters, and the Republican Party can’t get rid of him, so they’ll just hitch on and ride the bronco. He didn’t lose by nearly enough last time that anybody should feel comfortable.
Tim Scott – He’s still MAGA, but his race would convince a lot of the “reasonable Republicans” that they can vote for him because it would assuage their guilt about that whole White Supremacy thing. The White Supremacists are stupid, but they know a political win when they see one. Scott would never replace Trump as cult leader, he would be a placeholder until the Return of the King.
Glenn Youngkin – Of the “undeclareds” I think he’s the only one with any sort of shot. Media doesn’t seem to want to touch him for some reason. He’s their Safe Space, I think because he wasn’t “politically ambitious” (I mean, until he was, but again, media didn’t seem to want to touch that). He comes across as reasonable but is extremely right-wing – socially and economically. And he’s so rich that he actually dgaf. He could run a vacuous campaign, unsullied by media scrutiny, and get by.
The only way any of the non-Trumps is even vaguely plausible is a Trump health emergency. Any other reason for Trump not to be the nominee would anger the base too much, damage turnout too much..
Trump is the strongest even with his baggage. Plus, all of the non-Trumps are persona non grata with at least some part of the GOP spectrum.
Hyper-religious, possibly a turnoff to a bunch of people.
This whole post discussion is pretty academic anyway as without a Trump health emergency the GOP delegate allocation process in place has already awarded the nomination to Trump.
Trump, but if he dies you will see whoever follows sound just as crazy and not about wokeness. DeSantis has crashed and burned with his factory of grift down in Florida. They’re going to go all in on crime, the Biden crime family, attacking Mexico, the right of an angry commuter to strangle a homeless person, sending shoplifters to Gitmo. And this strategy has a decent chance of succeeding and flipping the states Trump barely lost in 2020.
If Trump is still in the race (i.e., not dead and not sufficiently disabled not to run), then Trump will be the nominee. His floor for support (the percentage of the Republican primary electorate which are zealous supporters of him) is just too high for anyone else to win the primary. So unless Trump dies or becomes disabled (being convicted would not be sufficient to turn his zealous supporters away from him), this is a moot question.
If Trump is not running, then I agree with @ptfe: that the critical qualification is: “they need to find the sweet spot – Trump-MAGA enough to get out that vote, but looking all respectable-like to those people who just can’t bring themselves to lever for a Dem.” I also agree with him that Tim Scott and Glenn Youngkin fit that mold, as would Nikki Haley.
I would say Tim Scott. He would receive substantial Black votes, he’d be an acceptable candidate for moderates and Dems that are dissatisfied with Biden may stay home.
That said, the benefits of incumbency, Biden’s successful presidency, the fact that he is a guy that is hard to hate and the country’s history of re-electing presidents would result in Biden prevailing.
Thanks for the answers thus far. I will note, however, that some of you are not answering the question as asked. I am not asking who you think will win the nomination. I am asking who you think has the best chance to beat Biden in 2024.
I agree. As far as the MAGAs are concerned, it’s not just that they’re not bothered by Trump’s baggage; it’s that every time he’s indicted they become that much more determined to vote for him.
It’s ironic that the absolute worst possible option has the nomination locked up.
Trump voters’ affinity for him seems to insulate the former president from attacks whether or not he debates this week, because voters basically say they aren’t receptive to such criticism.
Instead, a whopping nine in 10 GOP primary voters want the other candidates to focus on making the case for themselves, but not against Trump.
The entire party needs Trump to be immune from any sort of standard. It’s personal for 90% of GOP voters now. They can’t bear the truth. Barring death, there’s really no chance he won’t get nominated, simply because the bitterness against whomever somehow clawed their way around him would reverberate into the general election.
@CSK: There are multiple ways to approach this hypothetical, but they all lead to some version of “If my grandma had wheels, she’d be a wagon.”
If some non-Trump candidate were somehow to beat Trump in the primaries, Trump will almost certainly accuse that person of cheating. While I’ve long been doubtful Trump would launch a third-party run in that scenario, it’s hard to imagine him endorsing the nominee.
If Trump were actually to drop out of the race, then it would become a contest to see who would get the vaunted Trump endorsement, which he would drag out for as long as possible.
If Trump dies before the primaries are finished—well, that’s when things could get interesting. I suspect a nontrivial number of Republicans would vote for the orange corpse anyway. If he’s no longer on the ballot, they’ll write in his name, whether they can spell it or not. Some would refuse even to believe he died.
A divided Trump-less field could potentially lead to surprising outcomes. Certainly more Republicans will enter the race if Trump ceases to be a candidate, whether voluntarily or through death. But I still find it hard to believe an anti-MAGA like Christie or Hurd, or a milquetoast like Haley, could win the nomination, even in a divided field.
As to the original question, the tl;dr is that the strength of a candidate against Biden in the general election is hard to separate from the circumstances in which that candidate got to that place.
Except that it isn’t as an intellectual exercise because I am not asking who would win the primary. I am asking for views on who the strongest candidate in the field would be in the general, and arguments to support that position.
If Trump dies, the rage of the MAGAs will be white-hot. It matters not that he’s obese, eats an unhealthy diet, doesn’t exercise, and, frankly, is no spring chicken. The MAGAs will, invariably, claim that their pin-up boy was assassinated by the globalist Deep State communists.
I’m inclined to think that the most peaceful expression of their wrath will be if they refuse to vote in 2024, even if Jesus Christ Himself ran as Trump’s replacement.
I know. And it’s an interesting question. But–and this is a failing on my part–I can’t speculate hypothetically when the hypothetical at issue seems like a non-existent possibility.
@ptfe: Despite the “I have Black friend” effect, I can’t see Scott getting past the GOP base. I agree Youngkin would have a shot. He’d have a ton of money behind him and the supposedly liberal MSM seem to have settled on him as their “reasonable Republican” du jour. That said, he got rich as a head of the Carlyle Group. Carlyle was, and I assume still is, Bush/Saudi money. So, for better or worse, Youngkin is Jeb Bush 2024. But with a demonstrated ability to demagogue education.
Except that it isn’t as an intellectual exercise because I am not asking who would win the primary. I am asking for views on who the strongest candidate in the field would be in the general, and arguments to support that position.
Except the question is pointless without setting the circumstances that could create a non-Trump candidate.
I am asking for views on who the strongest candidate in the field would be in the general,
Does it matter which non-Trump would lose least badly? Loss is loss, I can’t answer that because I really have no idea.
I mean gee whiz, the question is basically: rank order the GOP field in terms of winning potential if you could skip straight to the general. If in doing your rank-ordering you don’t put Trump at the top of your list, who would you put there?
A fair number of the Repubs running have a chance to win the general… if Trump whole heartedly endorses them and encourages his voters to turn out. And I see only one possible way that will happen: if Trump is convinced he can’t win against Biden and one of them publicly declares they will pardon him if elected. Any non-Trump will get some number of independents and formers who would otherwise vote Biden and sit out, and the Trump supporters will turn out because their boy is asking them too. If that happens and the candidate is Tim Scott he will win for sure.
Off topic, but it speaks to the nature of politics that this is a “team” related discussion. “Who has the best chance of putting the Repub team on top?” I know it wasn’t the question, but I almost never hear a discussion of how they and their policies would affect the country, only about how they should position themselves, or how they are faring in the horserace. And that’s true for national governance in general. When even the most vital issues are discussed it’s all about whether it benefits the Republicans or the Democrats and very rarely about the effect on people in general.
@Steven L. Taylor:
I gave it a try but I don’t think any of the also-rans, with the possible exception of Youngkin, would have much of a chance. Trump is still more likely than any of the others who are, with a few insignificant exceptions, Trump-lite. On the GOP side the voters will split into two camps: those willing to accept Trump-lite, and those too far in the cult to imagine ever voting for anyone else.
Trump is their best shot as he unites the MAGA culties and most of the gutless remnants of the GOP. Trump got 47% of the vote in 2020, in 2016 he got 46%. Incumbency gained him less than 1%. Since then a whole lot of Gen Z voters have come on-line and a bunch of Silents and Boomers have shuffled off. Are there a bunch of Independent voters who’ll be thinking, I like Trump more, now that he’s been indicted?
If we talk abortion and the economy we most likely have this. With the woke panic weakening the GOP doesn’t have an issue other than drag queens. The GOP is all-in to rescue Trump, they have nothing else.
I’ve thought about it a bit more, and I suppose Tim Scott would be my choice–but only because, despite any of his virtues, he hasn’t attacked Trump, which might satisfy all but the most rabid MAGAs.
In general, I think the best strategy to beat Biden is to contrast his age and progressive domestic agenda with a moderate governor. One of my assumptions (all of which are certainly debatable) is that the best strategy to focus on these two Biden vulnerabilities is to appeal to moderates and independents.
I still do not understand why the GoP base hates Biden so much, but that seems to be the reality, so I’d estimate the base will go along with most of the GoP candidates. This is another assumption in that most of the GoP base would vote for one of these more moderate candidates as a vote against Biden, similar to how many Dem base voters held their noses for Biden because they hated Trump.
If we limit the choices to currently declared candidates, I’d guess Christie or Haley. I’d eliminate Pence because I think he is one of the candidates the base might not turn out for because they hate him.
If we expand the field to include those who haven’t declared but might, then I think the best opportunity would be one of the more moderate and younger candidates with experience as a governor. Glenn Youngkin or Brian Kemp would do well against Biden, I think. Both are governors from areas that are purple and trending blue. They might also peel off some moderate Democrats worried about Biden’s age. Another potential advantage is bringing back #nevertrump voters. Although relatively small in number, small numbers can be decisive in our close elections.
In my mind, DeSantis has gone too far into crazy land chasing primary voters, and his many mistakes lead me to believe that he wouldn’t run a good campaign.
Unvetted, unmarried, former 30-year-old virgin Tim Scott is as overrated right now as DeSantis was overrated before his time in the barrel. Both are unelectable weirdos.
Trump is simultaneously the Republicans’ best, worst, and only option. That’s what happens when you let a racist cult leader remake your party in his image. He is the only one that can juice turnout enough to give the GQP a shot. Admittedly, he also solves Biden’s enthusiasm problem.
I still do not understand why the GoP base hates Biden so much
In this case hate is a pre-existing condition. They don’t hate Biden, they hate, full stop, and will happily aim their hate at any designated scapegoat: Blacks, Democrats, Trans people, women, the FBI, immigrants, drag queens . . . They need to hate because hate directs their self-doubts, their disappointments and failures outward. Depression and rage are two sides of the same coin. Deprived of hate, they would sink into self-loathing and depression.
I’ve maintained all along that MAGAts know they’re losers, expect to lose and in many ways court failure. They’re comfortable being losers. It’s not as if they have policies or plans that extend beyond hate. They don’t have a vision of the future, they don’t have a plan, they have hate and submission to their cult leader.
I still do not understand why the GoP base hates Biden so much, but that seems to be the reality, so I’d estimate the base will go along with most of the GoP candidates.
They hate Biden because he beat Donald Trump.
There’s a bit more to it than that, as they are spoon fed misinformation, and they have taken to hatred as a hobby (if you’re hanging “Fuck Joe Biden” flags on your truck, it’s clearly your hobby along with anything else). But largely, they hate him because he beat Trump.
If you remove Trump, I don’t know how much of the anger survives without him. Not all of it. Some of them will just not bother voting against Biden if they aren’t engaged with the Republican candidate.
I think your explanation is definitely part of it. It also doesn’t help Biden that he’s just generally very unpopular, not just with the GoP base. I’m honestly surprised his numbers have not improved.
I still do not understand why the GoP base hates Biden so much
I don’t either. And it’s not just the base. How many times have we heard an educated, respected GOP say he hates Trump but of course he couldn’t possibly vote for a D? For a third to half the country WE’RE the weirdos who want to destroy democracy.
Except that it isn’t as an intellectual exercise because I am not asking who would win the primary. I am asking for views on who the strongest candidate in the field would be in the general, and arguments to support that position.
I just don’t think it’s possible to separate the two. You seem to be asking what would happen if we could just wave a magic wand and make a certain candidate the nominee. But that’s never going to make sense—for either party, frankly, at least not since the days the nominee was chosen at the convention. Imagine, for example, it’s 2008 during the Obama-Hillary fight, and the DNC suddenly steps in and declares the nominee will be, say, Bill Richardson. Whatever Richardson’s strengths might be in theory as a general-election candidate, you wouldn’t be able to escape the fact that it would leave the majority of Dems hopping mad that the elites rejected their preferred candidate and went with someone who dropped out months earlier and whose campaign never got any traction.
This process is even more magnified with Trump, because the entire reason for this exercise is our sense Trump is politically a very weak candidate (putting aside his very real substantive faults and the grave danger he poses to American democracy), yet any candidate who would have the fewest of those flaws is not only unlikely to make it through the primaries, but if somehow they did, they’d be weakened by the lack of enthusiasm coming from the MAGA base, who aren’t going to disappear even if Trump somehow does.
You seem to be asking what would happen if we could just wave a magic wand and make a certain candidate the nominee.
Pretty much. It is, after all, a thought experiment and so the parameters of the experiment are almost boundless.
I think a lot of people are missing the point by answering different questions, such as:
“Who else could win the primary?”
“Who is wining in the polls?”
“What would make Trump exit?”
Etc.
None of those are invalid questions, but they miss the point.
I think this exercise illustrates the way in which is difficult even for thoughtful, politically engaged Americans, to see how the primary process and the general election are not the same thing (but that wasn’t my motivation).
@Andy:
Progs don’t like Biden because he’s an old, White guy, which is not their fantasy POTUS. Not only is he oooooold and Whiiiiite and maaaaale, he’s good at his job despite being so very old and so very White and so very male. They’ll vote for him but they’ll never say they like him.
Add the progs to the MAGAts and you get your 60% disapproval numbers.
I still do not understand why the GoP base hates Biden so much
On balance the base of Party X tends to hate the nominee of Party Y. I think this has been increasingly true given our media environment. But I also do think it is a new phenomenon.
Vivek has the best chance. If Trump is out, policies will rush to the fore and Vivek Ramaswamy has policies. Can’t say I’m a fan of all of them, but he has them. And he’s good at speaking off the cuff on them.
He is also positioned for the best late fall back position. Trump gets the nomination. Vivek is the VP candidate. All good, Vivek does 4 years as VP to season for the presidency in 2028-2036. But, if Democrats and their government minions succeed in taking out Trump, Vivek takes the top of the ticket to a 2024 victory.
I would say Ramaswamy is the only one on either side who could do what McKinley did in 1896 when he brought together Confederate and Union veterans in Columbus and started the national healing from the Civil War.
The best part, Democrats and establishment Republicans won’t be able to keep their inner racists in check if Vivek is the heavy contender. And I think the nation is ready to not ignore that anymore.
I will answer the question as asked; I’m not sure what’s so difficult about it and I can see why it is interesting from a structural point of view.
I think Trump has a significantly better chance of beating Biden than any other conceivable R candidate. He has a large and motivated personal following that no other R has and that is not transferable. For some other candidate to have a better chance, they would need to recapture the rational conservative vote, and there is zero chance of any R running on such a platform in the current climate. Ds will be able to get out the vote by pointing at the craziness that Rs do when they are in power, starting with what history will probably remember as the Stacked Court and how it is leading to minority theocratic rule.
1. Trump. Almost did it in 2020. But excess death of Rep. voters hurts Trump.
2. Bergum. Has no national baggage to keep gettable voters away. So can “write” his own story. Needs Trump to die early so doesn’t have to answer many Trump questions.
3. A mushy group of turds (DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Scott, Haley) that all have issues that they need to overcome. Minorities running to represent the KKK, weird in public (DeSantis), too MAGA or Trump deferential (DeSantis & Vivek),etc. They might be able to overcome these if Trump dies, but if they have to attack or defend him for a long part of the primary season, too many lost voters.
3. Suarez. See Bergum, but even less well known and a minority.
4. Christie/Pence/Hutchinson. Would get the trad Reps back but MAGA wouldn’t vote. Neither has a chance in the primary. I think Hutchinson has a better chance than the other two, but not much.
Of the people not declared, Youngkin would jump to just below Trump if he entered. For whatever reason, people see him as “reasonable”.
I think Nikki Haley and Glenn Youngkin would be effective candidates against Biden in a general. But it pretty much has to be a governor, preferably one under 60 to sharpen the contrast with the octogenarian President. (That rules out Asa Hutchison and Doug Burgum, both of whom look good on paper but are pretty damn old themselves.)
Hyper-religious, possibly a turnoff to a bunch of people.
Who, among people who will pull the lever for R in the next election is going to be put off by hyper-religious when there is graft to be directed toward the rich, taxes to cut (they’re still too high at the top margin after all), regulations to cut, gays and transes to sequester? I could go on, but I think you get the point.
[Biden’s] good at his job despite being so very old and so very White and so very male
Not that I’ve noticed. Did you have any particular accomplishments or feats in mind when you said this? I vote for him because he doesn’t want to trash America and his opponents do, but that’s a pretty low bar…
On balance the base of Party X tends to hate the nominee of Party Y.
I saw no evidence that the Democratic base hated Mitt Romney, or George HW Bush, or John McCain, or even Sarah Palin or W. (Contempt is not hatred.) Not the way the Republican base hated the Clintons and Obama and now Biden.
Trump is the exception to everything, though if Ted Cruz were the nominee I would certainly hate him.
@Modulo Myself: Personally, I think the best electoral bet for the GOP is for Trump to die in the midst of the legal proceedings. Then they could go with someone like Scott or Youngkin, holding Trump up as a martyr a la JFK. Of the declared candidates, I think Christie might be the strongest.
As a straight hypothetical that assumes a candidate other than Trump, I think Republicans might want to correct the record and elect Scott as the first genuine African American President. Haley would be possible, too. The first woman as President is far more likely to be from the right than from the left. The left would rather complain about who the candidate is than vote for her.
@DrDaveT:
Biden has directed huge investments in green energy, the US economy has avoided recession and is the second fastest growing economy in the G20 behind only Indonesia. He has strengthened our alliances, hit China with effective sanctions and weakened Russia without loss of American lives. His DoJ has begun to hold the insurrectionists liable. Given the political power balance he has been very effective.
The best part, Democrats and establishment Republicans won’t be able to keep their inner racists in check if Vivek is the heavy contender.
I didn’t know that Abby Johnson was either a Democrat or an establishment Republican. Learn something new each day.
“Drawing a comparison [between Ramaswamy and] former President Barack Obama, Johnson cautioned viewers not to be fooled by charisma and eloquence, stating, ‘Do not be a victim of Satan’s confusion right now. This is an important time for us to have clarity of mind as we are going into an election cycle. So please discern. Please use discernment right now because God hates those who are willing to put up idols over him, and he will not be mocked.’”
Of course not — the man was a drop-out hippy communist, advocated separation of church and state, spoke against hate, was blind to class distinctions, and said out loud that you can’t be both devout and rich. Oh, and said that nobody except God has standing to say anything about who is sinful and who isn’t.
A religion based on the teachings of Jesus would be an interesting experiment.
Assuming that was aimed at me, FWIW I’m trying to engage in your scenario. If anything, I’m a bit less certain than most hear that Trump will be the nominee. But I took your question to mean, “Who has the best shot against Biden?” But the next question is, “How did he/she get there?” Did Trump drop out and go home to sulk? Then I think none of them have even a remote chance, because way more MAGAs will stay home than ex-Republicans and Republican leaning Independents will return to the fold. I don’t think any Republican can reach better than a 55/45 split under those circumstances. Your question becomes, “Who will get beat by the least?” and almost nothing matters if the Trump voters stay home.
Reading the responses, it’s interesting to me that so many of our commentariat don’t seem to be able to work a pure hypothetical. Maybe more of us are lacking critical thinking skills than we imagine are.
Biden has directed huge investments in green energy
He got a budget passed that included this. Point to you.
the US economy has avoided recession and is the second fastest growing economy in the G20 behind only Indonesia.
We both know Presidents have little to no control over this, beyond not doing anything insane like getting into a land war in Asia.
He has strengthened our alliances
Not clear to me, at least his personal role in any strengthening that has happened
hit China with effective sanctions
I’ll give you that one too
and weakened Russia without loss of American lives.
Russia did that without Joe’s help. Again, failure to shoot himself in the foot is a low bar.
His DoJ has begun to hold the insurrectionists liable.
It isn’t his DoJ; it’s ours. The Trump administration was the aberration; under Democrats (and previous Republicans) the DoJ is not directed by the President, nor should it be.
So, OK but not great. Even Trump had a couple of major good accomplishments (e.g. criminal justice reform) on his watch. The fact that Joe is the best D option at the moment is still a scathing indictment of the D development process, though.
If the hypothetical means factoring out winning the primary, possibly Chris Christie or Nikki Haley. Youngkin and Ramasmarmy drink from the same trough. Both come across to me and mine as shallow and smug, unserious. Yuck. It’s hard to grok who could pull enough moderate and independent voters and capture a majority of magats.
Is there a prominent republican pol out there who isn’t hellbent on further destroying the planet while putting women and all LGBT+ in chastity belts and hair shirts, not to mention revising American history and book banning while kissing the rear of some whacked out billionaire? Seems not.
Maybe more of us are lacking critical thinking skills than we imagine are.
This is pretty much a given. Who among us is a clever as she thinks she is?
But I wouldn’t automatically assume that the “how many fairies can dance on the head of a pin?” crowd is any better at critical thinking. Maybe people who are relatively good at critical thinking are more interested in reality-based thinking than in fantasy.
@DrDaveT: Hehe. You could’ve habe just written “I don’t understand the strategic decision-making behind economic planning, legislative negotiation, and foreign policy,” and left it at that.
It’s painfully naïve to assume Bernie Sanders or Ted Cruz or just any ole politician would have nominated the same black female judges, prioritized the same amount of infrastructure spending and economic stimulus, successfully massaged the egos of Manchin/Sinema, quietly outnegotiated Kevin McCarthy, or supported Ukraine.
Economic and foreign policy don’t happen out of thin air. Things would be quite different with a Democrat who didn’t know to keep his mouth shut during debt ceiling negotiations when most of the party, including me, was wrongly calling for public statements bashing House Republicans.
Or a Democrat who was soft on Putin, of which there are many.
Or a Democrat who wanted us to continue wasting money and weapons in Afghanistan, of which there were many.
Or a Democrat who caved to Larry Summers and Jamie Dimon’s public press for a smaller COVID recovery bill, like an Obama or a Bill Clinton would have.
Or a Democrat who lacked the personal relationships to prompt McConnell to stand down on judge nominations and multiple bipartisan bills, including infrastructure investment and gun reform. Or lacked the personal relationship to get Manchin to greenlight the Inflation Reduction Act.
Or a Democrat who would’ve have listened the media when they — wrongly — insisted midterm 2022 voters did not care about protecting democracy from extremist “MAGA Republicans” because only inflation and crime and anti-wokeness mattered.
Is Biden uniquely awesome? No. But where he is unique in wisdom, temperament, experience, and priorities just happened to be right for this moment. Right man, right time. No, not any ole Democrat or any ole politician could have achived what he has. (And I think Biden was/is wrong to slowwalk marijuana legalization, retain Trump’s inflationary and overbroad China tariffs, and keep dragging his feet on arming Ukraine with advanced firepower. But that just reiterates my point — different Democrat, different outcomes.)
Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia.
Almost by default because the cast of thousands running now is so uninspiring.
He is frontline culture warrior, with solid elitist Republican Harvard Business School credentials. Made a lot of money money with the private equity firm tThe Carlyle Group. He swould be strong because people know very little about him. Plus, he’s got that ‘very little government experience’ thing working for him.
But I wouldn’t automatically assume that the “how many fairies can dance on the head of a pin?” crowd is any better at critical thinking.
I don’t necessarily have a problem with angels-on-the-head-of-pin discussions. What I think is lacking in this discussion is not the unlikelihood of someone other than Trump winning the nomination. It’s that you can’t separate the candidate from the experience of going through a primary. It’s simply not a valid concept in today’s system. The process of competing in the primary helps define the candidate, and often plays a role in committing the candidate to certain positions—despite Romney’s notorious “etch-a-sketch” remark, a candidate can’t easily shift away from positions they took in the primaries (indeed, Romney was hurt by the perception—and a correct one, in my view—that he was an opportunistic flip-flopper), and in general they don’t.
Also, the primaries are often the first time we get to know a candidate nationally. Many of us may have had doubts about DeSantis from the beginning, but how many people predicted how awesomely his campaign would flop? There’s always a “grass is greener” dynamic when people start wishing for some savior, and it’s often based on very superficial “on-paper” qualifications. We saw it happen with Rick Perry in 2011. The recent Glenn Youngkin trial balloon is based heavily, I suspect, on his strong election in 2021. But isn’t that at least part of what drove the elites to turn toward DeSantis previously?
The same goes for all the other trial balloons. Vivek looks great to the base until they find out he’s a Hindu. Tim Scott is formidable until they realize he’s 57 and has never been married. Or maybe the base will be able to get over these things, but it just goes to highlight how untested they are in the primaries alone, let alone the general, and how easily the shine can come off their armor.
But I wouldn’t automatically assume that the “how many fairies can dance on the head of a pin?” crowd is any better at critical thinking.
Nor would I. Still, “I can’t imagine how this would work because it can’t happen in the world as I perceive it now” isn’t a ringing endorsement for a person’s thinking skills. And I fully endorse being able to switch between Column A and Column B. It’s what I tried to get my students to do all the time. Something about reach exceeding grasp comes to mind. It’s so sad that I’m so poorly read that I can’t place it. 🙁
@DK: I am genuinely confused why you think a comparison of Biden against some hypothetical straw man incompetent Democrat (much less Ted Cruz) is relevant.
The one exception in your list is
Or a Democrat who lacked the personal relationships to prompt McConnell to stand down on judge nominations and multiple bipartisan bills, including infrastructure investment and gun reform. Or lacked the personal relationship to get Manchin to greenlight the Inflation Reduction Act.
…which has merit, even if it should have read “an Inflation Reduction Act” rather than “the Inflation Reduction Act”. Biden did that; kudos to him.
I decline to play, because of my perhaps naive conviction that Trump has made any Republican unelectable next year. He won’t beat Biden, and if he’s not on the ticket, Republican turnout will be so abysmal no other Republican will either.
@Andy: “It’s interesting the extent to which few people want to engage in your thought exercise on its own terms.”
Because it’s a bit ‘if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle’.
Trump gets the nomination unless death, serious disability or a black swan happens. At that point, we would be in another world.
@JKB: “Vivek has the best chance. If Trump is out, policies will rush to the fore and Vivek Ramaswamy has policies. Can’t say I’m a fan of all of them, but he has them. And he’s good at speaking off the cuff on them.”
Shut down most of the US Government,
Surrender to Putin.
Recreate the Taiwanese high-tech sector in a few years, with the 100% opposition of Taiwan, because the next step will be to:
Surrender Taiwan to China.
Raise the voting age to 25.
Destroy Social Security (whether he says so or not).
@Tony W: Thank you! In order to properly answer the question, we need to know who in the Republican field still believes in our democratic form of government. Trump doesn’t, DeSantis doesn’t, so where exactly is the dividing line? If Trump or another MAGA candidate takes power we can say goodbye to the world’s “last, great hope” for human freedom, as well as our position as the arsenal of democracies and leader of the Free World. The result for us, and for the rest of the democracies world-wide, would be catastrophic.
Brian Kemp* –
He would put Georgia in the GOP column, and could win PA, NC, and AZ. That would be enough, even without MI, WI and OH.
* But he can’t win a prmary. Most good General Election candidates can’t get through the primary.
I don’t think there are any good options. Donald Trump, the worst possible option, is going to get the R. nomination and then, presumably, lose the general to Biden.
I say “presumably” only because I’m no longer 100% positive that Trump will lose in November 2024.
Trump. His supporters are voting affirmatively and turnout will be high. The rest fo the GOP will be voting against Biden. Too many Democrats still cant believe that people will vote for Trump, especially with 4 indictments, so they will take a win for granted. Unless Dobbs is actively on a state’s voting slate turnout wont be that high.
Steve
Republican unelectability is bimodal. There are maybe 3 people who can beat Biden in the general.
Candidates who are too “centrist” are right out, because the hardcore MAGA are never showing up for that. Biden will mop up among the anti-Republicans, anti-MAGAs will vote but don’t make up enough of that party to swing it, and MAGAs will be 50/50 because at heart they’re not about policy, they’re about their guy.
Candidates who are MAGA but show any anti-Trump tendencies are also right out. Anti-MAGA will not vote for this person. Just not happening.
So if it’s not Trump, they need to find the sweet spot – Trump-MAGA enough to get out that vote, but looking all respectable-like to those people who just can’t bring themselves to lever for a Dem.
Ranked and justified:
Donald Trump – Rerunning 2020 is the most frightening prospect. He can drag out all his voters, and the Republican Party can’t get rid of him, so they’ll just hitch on and ride the bronco. He didn’t lose by nearly enough last time that anybody should feel comfortable.
Tim Scott – He’s still MAGA, but his race would convince a lot of the “reasonable Republicans” that they can vote for him because it would assuage their guilt about that whole White Supremacy thing. The White Supremacists are stupid, but they know a political win when they see one. Scott would never replace Trump as cult leader, he would be a placeholder until the Return of the King.
Glenn Youngkin – Of the “undeclareds” I think he’s the only one with any sort of shot. Media doesn’t seem to want to touch him for some reason. He’s their Safe Space, I think because he wasn’t “politically ambitious” (I mean, until he was, but again, media didn’t seem to want to touch that). He comes across as reasonable but is extremely right-wing – socially and economically. And he’s so rich that he actually dgaf. He could run a vacuous campaign, unsullied by media scrutiny, and get by.
@CSK:
The only way any of the non-Trumps is even vaguely plausible is a Trump health emergency. Any other reason for Trump not to be the nominee would anger the base too much, damage turnout too much..
Trump is the strongest even with his baggage. Plus, all of the non-Trumps are persona non grata with at least some part of the GOP spectrum.
@ptfe:
Hyper-religious, possibly a turnoff to a bunch of people.
This whole post discussion is pretty academic anyway as without a Trump health emergency the GOP delegate allocation process in place has already awarded the nomination to Trump.
Trump, but if he dies you will see whoever follows sound just as crazy and not about wokeness. DeSantis has crashed and burned with his factory of grift down in Florida. They’re going to go all in on crime, the Biden crime family, attacking Mexico, the right of an angry commuter to strangle a homeless person, sending shoplifters to Gitmo. And this strategy has a decent chance of succeeding and flipping the states Trump barely lost in 2020.
If Trump is still in the race (i.e., not dead and not sufficiently disabled not to run), then Trump will be the nominee. His floor for support (the percentage of the Republican primary electorate which are zealous supporters of him) is just too high for anyone else to win the primary. So unless Trump dies or becomes disabled (being convicted would not be sufficient to turn his zealous supporters away from him), this is a moot question.
If Trump is not running, then I agree with @ptfe: that the critical qualification is: “they need to find the sweet spot – Trump-MAGA enough to get out that vote, but looking all respectable-like to those people who just can’t bring themselves to lever for a Dem.” I also agree with him that Tim Scott and Glenn Youngkin fit that mold, as would Nikki Haley.
I would say Tim Scott. He would receive substantial Black votes, he’d be an acceptable candidate for moderates and Dems that are dissatisfied with Biden may stay home.
That said, the benefits of incumbency, Biden’s successful presidency, the fact that he is a guy that is hard to hate and the country’s history of re-electing presidents would result in Biden prevailing.
Thanks for the answers thus far. I will note, however, that some of you are not answering the question as asked. I am not asking who you think will win the nomination. I am asking who you think has the best chance to beat Biden in 2024.
@charontwo:
I agree. As far as the MAGAs are concerned, it’s not just that they’re not bothered by Trump’s baggage; it’s that every time he’s indicted they become that much more determined to vote for him.
It’s ironic that the absolute worst possible option has the nomination locked up.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Well…none of them, really. But your question is moot, since Trump is going to get the nomination. There’s no way around that.
This CBS poll has him at 62%. Also:
Trump voters’ affinity for him seems to insulate the former president from attacks whether or not he debates this week, because voters basically say they aren’t receptive to such criticism.
Instead, a whopping nine in 10 GOP primary voters want the other candidates to focus on making the case for themselves, but not against Trump.
The entire party needs Trump to be immune from any sort of standard. It’s personal for 90% of GOP voters now. They can’t bear the truth. Barring death, there’s really no chance he won’t get nominated, simply because the bitterness against whomever somehow clawed their way around him would reverberate into the general election.
@CSK: There are multiple ways to approach this hypothetical, but they all lead to some version of “If my grandma had wheels, she’d be a wagon.”
If some non-Trump candidate were somehow to beat Trump in the primaries, Trump will almost certainly accuse that person of cheating. While I’ve long been doubtful Trump would launch a third-party run in that scenario, it’s hard to imagine him endorsing the nominee.
If Trump were actually to drop out of the race, then it would become a contest to see who would get the vaunted Trump endorsement, which he would drag out for as long as possible.
If Trump dies before the primaries are finished—well, that’s when things could get interesting. I suspect a nontrivial number of Republicans would vote for the orange corpse anyway. If he’s no longer on the ballot, they’ll write in his name, whether they can spell it or not. Some would refuse even to believe he died.
A divided Trump-less field could potentially lead to surprising outcomes. Certainly more Republicans will enter the race if Trump ceases to be a candidate, whether voluntarily or through death. But I still find it hard to believe an anti-MAGA like Christie or Hurd, or a milquetoast like Haley, could win the nomination, even in a divided field.
As to the original question, the tl;dr is that the strength of a candidate against Biden in the general election is hard to separate from the circumstances in which that candidate got to that place.
@CSK:
Except that it isn’t as an intellectual exercise because I am not asking who would win the primary. I am asking for views on who the strongest candidate in the field would be in the general, and arguments to support that position.
@Kylopod:
If Trump dies, the rage of the MAGAs will be white-hot. It matters not that he’s obese, eats an unhealthy diet, doesn’t exercise, and, frankly, is no spring chicken. The MAGAs will, invariably, claim that their pin-up boy was assassinated by the globalist Deep State communists.
I’m inclined to think that the most peaceful expression of their wrath will be if they refuse to vote in 2024, even if Jesus Christ Himself ran as Trump’s replacement.
@Steven L. Taylor:
I know. And it’s an interesting question. But–and this is a failing on my part–I can’t speculate hypothetically when the hypothetical at issue seems like a non-existent possibility.
@ptfe: Despite the “I have Black friend” effect, I can’t see Scott getting past the GOP base. I agree Youngkin would have a shot. He’d have a ton of money behind him and the supposedly liberal MSM seem to have settled on him as their “reasonable Republican” du jour. That said, he got rich as a head of the Carlyle Group. Carlyle was, and I assume still is, Bush/Saudi money. So, for better or worse, Youngkin is Jeb Bush 2024. But with a demonstrated ability to demagogue education.
@CSK: Fair enough. I suppose to a degree you are bolstering the point I am trying to make, even if via a different route.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Except the question is pointless without setting the circumstances that could create a non-Trump candidate.
Does it matter which non-Trump would lose least badly? Loss is loss, I can’t answer that because I really have no idea.
@charontwo:
That’s simply not true, but I certainly can’t force any answer.
I mean gee whiz, the question is basically: rank order the GOP field in terms of winning potential if you could skip straight to the general. If in doing your rank-ordering you don’t put Trump at the top of your list, who would you put there?
I mean, this is hardly an off-the-wall notion.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Things change, this far out we have no idea what the circumstances will be 15 months hence – which would IMO affect who would do best.
A fair number of the Repubs running have a chance to win the general… if Trump whole heartedly endorses them and encourages his voters to turn out. And I see only one possible way that will happen: if Trump is convinced he can’t win against Biden and one of them publicly declares they will pardon him if elected. Any non-Trump will get some number of independents and formers who would otherwise vote Biden and sit out, and the Trump supporters will turn out because their boy is asking them too. If that happens and the candidate is Tim Scott he will win for sure.
Off topic, but it speaks to the nature of politics that this is a “team” related discussion. “Who has the best chance of putting the Repub team on top?” I know it wasn’t the question, but I almost never hear a discussion of how they and their policies would affect the country, only about how they should position themselves, or how they are faring in the horserace. And that’s true for national governance in general. When even the most vital issues are discussed it’s all about whether it benefits the Republicans or the Democrats and very rarely about the effect on people in general.
@Steven L. Taylor:
@EddieInCA:
Me: Am I getting an “A” for the assignment? I’d better be.
Rest of class: TEACHER’S PET!!!
@Steven L. Taylor:
I gave it a try but I don’t think any of the also-rans, with the possible exception of Youngkin, would have much of a chance. Trump is still more likely than any of the others who are, with a few insignificant exceptions, Trump-lite. On the GOP side the voters will split into two camps: those willing to accept Trump-lite, and those too far in the cult to imagine ever voting for anyone else.
Trump is their best shot as he unites the MAGA culties and most of the gutless remnants of the GOP. Trump got 47% of the vote in 2020, in 2016 he got 46%. Incumbency gained him less than 1%. Since then a whole lot of Gen Z voters have come on-line and a bunch of Silents and Boomers have shuffled off. Are there a bunch of Independent voters who’ll be thinking, I like Trump more, now that he’s been indicted?
If we talk abortion and the economy we most likely have this. With the woke panic weakening the GOP doesn’t have an issue other than drag queens. The GOP is all-in to rescue Trump, they have nothing else.
I’ve thought about it a bit more, and I suppose Tim Scott would be my choice–but only because, despite any of his virtues, he hasn’t attacked Trump, which might satisfy all but the most rabid MAGAs.
In general, I think the best strategy to beat Biden is to contrast his age and progressive domestic agenda with a moderate governor. One of my assumptions (all of which are certainly debatable) is that the best strategy to focus on these two Biden vulnerabilities is to appeal to moderates and independents.
I still do not understand why the GoP base hates Biden so much, but that seems to be the reality, so I’d estimate the base will go along with most of the GoP candidates. This is another assumption in that most of the GoP base would vote for one of these more moderate candidates as a vote against Biden, similar to how many Dem base voters held their noses for Biden because they hated Trump.
If we limit the choices to currently declared candidates, I’d guess Christie or Haley. I’d eliminate Pence because I think he is one of the candidates the base might not turn out for because they hate him.
If we expand the field to include those who haven’t declared but might, then I think the best opportunity would be one of the more moderate and younger candidates with experience as a governor. Glenn Youngkin or Brian Kemp would do well against Biden, I think. Both are governors from areas that are purple and trending blue. They might also peel off some moderate Democrats worried about Biden’s age. Another potential advantage is bringing back #nevertrump voters. Although relatively small in number, small numbers can be decisive in our close elections.
In my mind, DeSantis has gone too far into crazy land chasing primary voters, and his many mistakes lead me to believe that he wouldn’t run a good campaign.
By the way, the Trump campaign is demanding an apology from the DeSantis campaign because DeSantis called MAGAs “listless vessels.”
Unvetted, unmarried, former 30-year-old virgin Tim Scott is as overrated right now as DeSantis was overrated before his time in the barrel. Both are unelectable weirdos.
Trump is simultaneously the Republicans’ best, worst, and only option. That’s what happens when you let a racist cult leader remake your party in his image. He is the only one that can juice turnout enough to give the GQP a shot. Admittedly, he also solves Biden’s enthusiasm problem.
Maybe Tim Scott has a bit of ground to make up:
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1693261110034547166
@CSK:
Anybody have any idea what that means, or what the speechwriter actually wrote? “Lifeless” doesn’t sound like an improvement. Oh well, covfeve.
@Andy:
In this case hate is a pre-existing condition. They don’t hate Biden, they hate, full stop, and will happily aim their hate at any designated scapegoat: Blacks, Democrats, Trans people, women, the FBI, immigrants, drag queens . . . They need to hate because hate directs their self-doubts, their disappointments and failures outward. Depression and rage are two sides of the same coin. Deprived of hate, they would sink into self-loathing and depression.
I’ve maintained all along that MAGAts know they’re losers, expect to lose and in many ways court failure. They’re comfortable being losers. It’s not as if they have policies or plans that extend beyond hate. They don’t have a vision of the future, they don’t have a plan, they have hate and submission to their cult leader.
@Andy:
They hate Biden because he beat Donald Trump.
There’s a bit more to it than that, as they are spoon fed misinformation, and they have taken to hatred as a hobby (if you’re hanging “Fuck Joe Biden” flags on your truck, it’s clearly your hobby along with anything else). But largely, they hate him because he beat Trump.
If you remove Trump, I don’t know how much of the anger survives without him. Not all of it. Some of them will just not bother voting against Biden if they aren’t engaged with the Republican candidate.
@Michael Reynolds:
I think your explanation is definitely part of it. It also doesn’t help Biden that he’s just generally very unpopular, not just with the GoP base. I’m honestly surprised his numbers have not improved.
@Steven L. Taylor:
It’s interesting the extent to which few people want to engage in your thought exercise on its own terms.
@Andy:
I don’t either. And it’s not just the base. How many times have we heard an educated, respected GOP say he hates Trump but of course he couldn’t possibly vote for a D? For a third to half the country WE’RE the weirdos who want to destroy democracy.
@Steven L. Taylor:
I just don’t think it’s possible to separate the two. You seem to be asking what would happen if we could just wave a magic wand and make a certain candidate the nominee. But that’s never going to make sense—for either party, frankly, at least not since the days the nominee was chosen at the convention. Imagine, for example, it’s 2008 during the Obama-Hillary fight, and the DNC suddenly steps in and declares the nominee will be, say, Bill Richardson. Whatever Richardson’s strengths might be in theory as a general-election candidate, you wouldn’t be able to escape the fact that it would leave the majority of Dems hopping mad that the elites rejected their preferred candidate and went with someone who dropped out months earlier and whose campaign never got any traction.
This process is even more magnified with Trump, because the entire reason for this exercise is our sense Trump is politically a very weak candidate (putting aside his very real substantive faults and the grave danger he poses to American democracy), yet any candidate who would have the fewest of those flaws is not only unlikely to make it through the primaries, but if somehow they did, they’d be weakened by the lack of enthusiasm coming from the MAGA base, who aren’t going to disappear even if Trump somehow does.
@gVOR10:
I think “listless vessels” means ships floating around aimlessly without direction or purpose. It also suggests passivity and haplessness.
@Andy:
Ain’t it, though? 😉
@Kylopod:
Pretty much. It is, after all, a thought experiment and so the parameters of the experiment are almost boundless.
I think a lot of people are missing the point by answering different questions, such as:
“Who else could win the primary?”
“Who is wining in the polls?”
“What would make Trump exit?”
Etc.
None of those are invalid questions, but they miss the point.
I think this exercise illustrates the way in which is difficult even for thoughtful, politically engaged Americans, to see how the primary process and the general election are not the same thing (but that wasn’t my motivation).
@Andy:
Progs don’t like Biden because he’s an old, White guy, which is not their fantasy POTUS. Not only is he oooooold and Whiiiiite and maaaaale, he’s good at his job despite being so very old and so very White and so very male. They’ll vote for him but they’ll never say they like him.
Add the progs to the MAGAts and you get your 60% disapproval numbers.
@Andy:
On balance the base of Party X tends to hate the nominee of Party Y. I think this has been increasingly true given our media environment. But I also do think it is a new phenomenon.
@EddieInCA: Ha!
Vivek has the best chance. If Trump is out, policies will rush to the fore and Vivek Ramaswamy has policies. Can’t say I’m a fan of all of them, but he has them. And he’s good at speaking off the cuff on them.
He is also positioned for the best late fall back position. Trump gets the nomination. Vivek is the VP candidate. All good, Vivek does 4 years as VP to season for the presidency in 2028-2036. But, if Democrats and their government minions succeed in taking out Trump, Vivek takes the top of the ticket to a 2024 victory.
I would say Ramaswamy is the only one on either side who could do what McKinley did in 1896 when he brought together Confederate and Union veterans in Columbus and started the national healing from the Civil War.
The best part, Democrats and establishment Republicans won’t be able to keep their inner racists in check if Vivek is the heavy contender. And I think the nation is ready to not ignore that anymore.
I will answer the question as asked; I’m not sure what’s so difficult about it and I can see why it is interesting from a structural point of view.
I think Trump has a significantly better chance of beating Biden than any other conceivable R candidate. He has a large and motivated personal following that no other R has and that is not transferable. For some other candidate to have a better chance, they would need to recapture the rational conservative vote, and there is zero chance of any R running on such a platform in the current climate. Ds will be able to get out the vote by pointing at the craziness that Rs do when they are in power, starting with what history will probably remember as the Stacked Court and how it is leading to minority theocratic rule.
@DrDaveT:
I like that. I may steal it. I would, however, quibble with it leading to theocratic rule. It’s more plutocratic with a “populist”/theocratic veneer.
Best chance to beat Biden in the general:
1. Trump. Almost did it in 2020. But excess death of Rep. voters hurts Trump.
2. Bergum. Has no national baggage to keep gettable voters away. So can “write” his own story. Needs Trump to die early so doesn’t have to answer many Trump questions.
3. A mushy group of turds (DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Scott, Haley) that all have issues that they need to overcome. Minorities running to represent the KKK, weird in public (DeSantis), too MAGA or Trump deferential (DeSantis & Vivek),etc. They might be able to overcome these if Trump dies, but if they have to attack or defend him for a long part of the primary season, too many lost voters.
3. Suarez. See Bergum, but even less well known and a minority.
4. Christie/Pence/Hutchinson. Would get the trad Reps back but MAGA wouldn’t vote. Neither has a chance in the primary. I think Hutchinson has a better chance than the other two, but not much.
Of the people not declared, Youngkin would jump to just below Trump if he entered. For whatever reason, people see him as “reasonable”.
I think Nikki Haley and Glenn Youngkin would be effective candidates against Biden in a general. But it pretty much has to be a governor, preferably one under 60 to sharpen the contrast with the octogenarian President. (That rules out Asa Hutchison and Doug Burgum, both of whom look good on paper but are pretty damn old themselves.)
@charontwo:
Who, among people who will pull the lever for R in the next election is going to be put off by hyper-religious when there is graft to be directed toward the rich, taxes to cut (they’re still too high at the top margin after all), regulations to cut, gays and transes to sequester? I could go on, but I think you get the point.
@Michael Reynolds:
Not that I’ve noticed. Did you have any particular accomplishments or feats in mind when you said this? I vote for him because he doesn’t want to trash America and his opponents do, but that’s a pretty low bar…
@Steven L. Taylor:
I saw no evidence that the Democratic base hated Mitt Romney, or George HW Bush, or John McCain, or even Sarah Palin or W. (Contempt is not hatred.) Not the way the Republican base hated the Clintons and Obama and now Biden.
Trump is the exception to everything, though if Ted Cruz were the nominee I would certainly hate him.
@gVOR10:
Christians are now de facto given preferential treatment under the law, and a majority of the Stacked Court thinks that’s a feature, not a bug.
@Modulo Myself: Personally, I think the best electoral bet for the GOP is for Trump to die in the midst of the legal proceedings. Then they could go with someone like Scott or Youngkin, holding Trump up as a martyr a la JFK. Of the declared candidates, I think Christie might be the strongest.
As a straight hypothetical that assumes a candidate other than Trump, I think Republicans might want to correct the record and elect Scott as the first genuine African American President. Haley would be possible, too. The first woman as President is far more likely to be from the right than from the left. The left would rather complain about who the candidate is than vote for her.
@CSK: Get serious. Republicans would never vote for Jesus Christ. The evangelical wing would denounce him as a pretender to the role of Anti-Christ.
ETA: It would be The Parable of the Grand Inquisitor all over again. 🙁
@DrDaveT:
Biden has directed huge investments in green energy, the US economy has avoided recession and is the second fastest growing economy in the G20 behind only Indonesia. He has strengthened our alliances, hit China with effective sanctions and weakened Russia without loss of American lives. His DoJ has begun to hold the insurrectionists liable. Given the political power balance he has been very effective.
@JKB:
I didn’t know that Abby Johnson was either a Democrat or an establishment Republican. Learn something new each day.
“Drawing a comparison [between Ramaswamy and] former President Barack Obama, Johnson cautioned viewers not to be fooled by charisma and eloquence, stating, ‘Do not be a victim of Satan’s confusion right now. This is an important time for us to have clarity of mind as we are going into an election cycle. So please discern. Please use discernment right now because God hates those who are willing to put up idols over him, and he will not be mocked.’”
https://www.firstpost.com/world/vivek-ramaswamy-is-hindu-conservative-christian-slams-presidential-candidate-as-he-rises-in-gop-polls-12956332.html
@Just nutha ignint crackerd:
Of course not — the man was a drop-out hippy communist, advocated separation of church and state, spoke against hate, was blind to class distinctions, and said out loud that you can’t be both devout and rich. Oh, and said that nobody except God has standing to say anything about who is sinful and who isn’t.
A religion based on the teachings of Jesus would be an interesting experiment.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Assuming that was aimed at me, FWIW I’m trying to engage in your scenario. If anything, I’m a bit less certain than most hear that Trump will be the nominee. But I took your question to mean, “Who has the best shot against Biden?” But the next question is, “How did he/she get there?” Did Trump drop out and go home to sulk? Then I think none of them have even a remote chance, because way more MAGAs will stay home than ex-Republicans and Republican leaning Independents will return to the fold. I don’t think any Republican can reach better than a 55/45 split under those circumstances. Your question becomes, “Who will get beat by the least?” and almost nothing matters if the Trump voters stay home.
@DrDaveT:
Indeed. I occasionally wonder what ever became of the idea of doing that.
Reading the responses, it’s interesting to me that so many of our commentariat don’t seem to be able to work a pure hypothetical. Maybe more of us are lacking critical thinking skills than we imagine are.
@Michael Reynolds:
He got a budget passed that included this. Point to you.
We both know Presidents have little to no control over this, beyond not doing anything insane like getting into a land war in Asia.
Not clear to me, at least his personal role in any strengthening that has happened
I’ll give you that one too
Russia did that without Joe’s help. Again, failure to shoot himself in the foot is a low bar.
It isn’t his DoJ; it’s ours. The Trump administration was the aberration; under Democrats (and previous Republicans) the DoJ is not directed by the President, nor should it be.
So, OK but not great. Even Trump had a couple of major good accomplishments (e.g. criminal justice reform) on his watch. The fact that Joe is the best D option at the moment is still a scathing indictment of the D development process, though.
If the hypothetical means factoring out winning the primary, possibly Chris Christie or Nikki Haley. Youngkin and Ramasmarmy drink from the same trough. Both come across to me and mine as shallow and smug, unserious. Yuck. It’s hard to grok who could pull enough moderate and independent voters and capture a majority of magats.
Is there a prominent republican pol out there who isn’t hellbent on further destroying the planet while putting women and all LGBT+ in chastity belts and hair shirts, not to mention revising American history and book banning while kissing the rear of some whacked out billionaire? Seems not.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
This is pretty much a given. Who among us is a clever as she thinks she is?
But I wouldn’t automatically assume that the “how many fairies can dance on the head of a pin?” crowd is any better at critical thinking. Maybe people who are relatively good at critical thinking are more interested in reality-based thinking than in fantasy.
Or a little of column A and a little of column B?
@DrDaveT: Hehe. You could’ve habe just written “I don’t understand the strategic decision-making behind economic planning, legislative negotiation, and foreign policy,” and left it at that.
It’s painfully naïve to assume Bernie Sanders or Ted Cruz or just any ole politician would have nominated the same black female judges, prioritized the same amount of infrastructure spending and economic stimulus, successfully massaged the egos of Manchin/Sinema, quietly outnegotiated Kevin McCarthy, or supported Ukraine.
Economic and foreign policy don’t happen out of thin air. Things would be quite different with a Democrat who didn’t know to keep his mouth shut during debt ceiling negotiations when most of the party, including me, was wrongly calling for public statements bashing House Republicans.
Or a Democrat who was soft on Putin, of which there are many.
Or a Democrat who wanted us to continue wasting money and weapons in Afghanistan, of which there were many.
Or a Democrat who caved to Larry Summers and Jamie Dimon’s public press for a smaller COVID recovery bill, like an Obama or a Bill Clinton would have.
Or a Democrat who lacked the personal relationships to prompt McConnell to stand down on judge nominations and multiple bipartisan bills, including infrastructure investment and gun reform. Or lacked the personal relationship to get Manchin to greenlight the Inflation Reduction Act.
Or a Democrat who would’ve have listened the media when they — wrongly — insisted midterm 2022 voters did not care about protecting democracy from extremist “MAGA Republicans” because only inflation and crime and anti-wokeness mattered.
Is Biden uniquely awesome? No. But where he is unique in wisdom, temperament, experience, and priorities just happened to be right for this moment. Right man, right time. No, not any ole Democrat or any ole politician could have achived what he has. (And I think Biden was/is wrong to slowwalk marijuana legalization, retain Trump’s inflationary and overbroad China tariffs, and keep dragging his feet on arming Ukraine with advanced firepower. But that just reiterates my point — different Democrat, different outcomes.)
Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia.
Almost by default because the cast of thousands running now is so uninspiring.
He is frontline culture warrior, with solid elitist Republican Harvard Business School credentials. Made a lot of money money with the private equity firm tThe Carlyle Group. He swould be strong because people know very little about him. Plus, he’s got that ‘very little government experience’ thing working for him.
@DrDaveT:
You don’t give POTUS credit for his own foreign policy?
Motivated reasoning leading to a ridiculous conclusion. I’d go on, but I see @DK: has already done the job.
@DK:
I don’t necessarily have a problem with angels-on-the-head-of-pin discussions. What I think is lacking in this discussion is not the unlikelihood of someone other than Trump winning the nomination. It’s that you can’t separate the candidate from the experience of going through a primary. It’s simply not a valid concept in today’s system. The process of competing in the primary helps define the candidate, and often plays a role in committing the candidate to certain positions—despite Romney’s notorious “etch-a-sketch” remark, a candidate can’t easily shift away from positions they took in the primaries (indeed, Romney was hurt by the perception—and a correct one, in my view—that he was an opportunistic flip-flopper), and in general they don’t.
Also, the primaries are often the first time we get to know a candidate nationally. Many of us may have had doubts about DeSantis from the beginning, but how many people predicted how awesomely his campaign would flop? There’s always a “grass is greener” dynamic when people start wishing for some savior, and it’s often based on very superficial “on-paper” qualifications. We saw it happen with Rick Perry in 2011. The recent Glenn Youngkin trial balloon is based heavily, I suspect, on his strong election in 2021. But isn’t that at least part of what drove the elites to turn toward DeSantis previously?
The same goes for all the other trial balloons. Vivek looks great to the base until they find out he’s a Hindu. Tim Scott is formidable until they realize he’s 57 and has never been married. Or maybe the base will be able to get over these things, but it just goes to highlight how untested they are in the primaries alone, let alone the general, and how easily the shine can come off their armor.
@DK:
Nor would I. Still, “I can’t imagine how this would work because it can’t happen in the world as I perceive it now” isn’t a ringing endorsement for a person’s thinking skills. And I fully endorse being able to switch between Column A and Column B. It’s what I tried to get my students to do all the time. Something about reach exceeding grasp comes to mind. It’s so sad that I’m so poorly read that I can’t place it. 🙁
@DK: I am genuinely confused why you think a comparison of Biden against some hypothetical straw man incompetent Democrat (much less Ted Cruz) is relevant.
The one exception in your list is
…which has merit, even if it should have read “an Inflation Reduction Act” rather than “the Inflation Reduction Act”. Biden did that; kudos to him.
I decline to play, because of my perhaps naive conviction that Trump has made any Republican unelectable next year. He won’t beat Biden, and if he’s not on the ticket, Republican turnout will be so abysmal no other Republican will either.
@Andy: “It’s interesting the extent to which few people want to engage in your thought exercise on its own terms.”
Because it’s a bit ‘if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle’.
Trump gets the nomination unless death, serious disability or a black swan happens. At that point, we would be in another world.
@JKB: “Vivek has the best chance. If Trump is out, policies will rush to the fore and Vivek Ramaswamy has policies. Can’t say I’m a fan of all of them, but he has them. And he’s good at speaking off the cuff on them.”
Shut down most of the US Government,
Surrender to Putin.
Recreate the Taiwanese high-tech sector in a few years, with the 100% opposition of Taiwan, because the next step will be to:
Surrender Taiwan to China.
Raise the voting age to 25.
Destroy Social Security (whether he says so or not).
@DrDaveT: Hand wave after hand wave.
@JKB: Dude.
If Trump gets elected in 2024, there is a good chance there won’t be an election in 2028.
@Tony W: Thank you! In order to properly answer the question, we need to know who in the Republican field still believes in our democratic form of government. Trump doesn’t, DeSantis doesn’t, so where exactly is the dividing line? If Trump or another MAGA candidate takes power we can say goodbye to the world’s “last, great hope” for human freedom, as well as our position as the arsenal of democracies and leader of the Free World. The result for us, and for the rest of the democracies world-wide, would be catastrophic.