The End of the Power 5 Era
The rapidly changing face of college sports.
After more than a century, the Pac-12 is dead as a major athletic conference. The writing was on the wall last June, when UCLA and USC announced that they would be leaving for the more lucrative pastures of the Big Ten. Incompetent leadership failed to respond in a timely fashion, allowing the Big 12 to get ahead of them in line for a decent television deal, opening the floodgates. The Big 12 agreed to take Colorado back last week and all hell broke loose yesterday, with Washington and Oregon joining the Big Ten (which will have 18 members in 2024) and Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah joining Colorado in the Big 12 (which will have 16 members come 2024).
The storied Cal and Stanford teams are left behind, along with lowly Oregon State and Washington State. Presumably, they’ll unite in some fashion with the Mountain West. Regardless, they won’t be a major conference anymore and the four schools that got used to major television deals bolstering elite athletic programs (Stanford is the most successful athletic program in the country, albeit not so much in the revenue-producing sports of football and basketball) will have to radically downsize.
The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) only continues to live as a major conference because its members foolishly signed away their broadcast rights through 2036. But they’re stuck in television deal that pays them considerably less than the Big 12 schools and radically less than the Big Ten and Southeastern Conferences (SEC). Their members, especially Florida State and Clemson, are frustrated and working feverishly to figure a way out. If the grant of rights can be broken, look for the Big Ten and SEC to go after the handful of top teams in the ACC, leaving behind a carcass similar to that of the Pac-12.
Assuming that doesn’t happen before then, the 2024 season will feature two superconferences in the SEC and Big Ten, two lesser major conferences in the Big 12 and ACC, and a plethora of minor leagues. (We’re talking football here; the so-called “Mid-Majors” are much more competitive in basketball.) Stanford and Cal are the biggest brands left on the outside looking in—while, strangely, upstarts like Central Florida or former minor players like Cincinnati are now inside the tent.
College athletic conferences have been realigning forever. But the rounds of the last decade or so have radically changed the nature of college sports. Gone are the old regional rivalries in favor of grabbing new television markets and big brands. Sooner or later, that will kill the interest of fans of all but the biggest schools.
And, of course, none of this makes any sense outside of college football. It’s next to impossible for teams in other sports, which both play a lot more games and produce no revenue, to travel to play each other while also, you know, going to class.
Wonder what this means for the future of the Apple Cup. Tempted to tell UW to take a hike.
@Paine: Both schools say they’re committed to still playing in all sports. Ditto the Oregon schools. We shall see.
I sort of stopped paying attention to college football over time. Frankly, it never really was a big thing in my life. I went to a D3 school that sucked at everything except hockey. In football, St. Thomas and St. John’s would obliterate us every year. At least we got to play Macalester which was a guaranteed win and the rest in that league it was a solid toss-up.
I never really gave a crap about Big 10 football because the Gophers always sucked and finished like 6th or 8th – could not compete with the big boys, perennially.
Depending on the year they could compete well in basketball.
But where we ruled was in hockey. I like college hockey.
The only football I ever paid any real attention was NFL and to the Vikings. College football never really crossed my radar. Never really watched, never really gave it any attention.
When I moved to Iowa everyone was super into the U of I Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Cyclones. I had to think a good five seconds to recall “Cyclones”.
People at work had this whole rigamarole with dress up days and betting pools. I had no clue what was happening and did not give a fuck. But I was the FNG who wanted to be at least accepted by my new colleagues socially so I jumped in as the uninterested arbitrator and judge. I had no dog in the hunt. I mustered all the non-natives and non UI or IS folks into a committee. We fudged the judging so it always ended in a tie while wearing my Hamline U t-shirt to display my objectivity, but praised every entrant for their quirky ingenuity. No fooling, these folks took this shit damn seriously. I found it slightly amusing and endearing, but I made damn sure not to say that out loud else it come off as patronizing, but I literally did not give a shit.
Neither school fielded a hockey team of any note.
But I pretended I cared for colleague brownie points. I was assiduously neutral and didn’t jump in on one side or the other, but I actively joined in on the associated shenanigans whole-heartedly for the potential social gain. It was a smart move.
I think the big gamble the conferences and networks are taking is that western states can be convinced to treat college football like a religion, as it is in the Midwest and South. Myself, I think that’s a bad bet.
The more money that flows the less interest I have in college sports. Especially now that my kids are grown and out of college.
It may be because I went to a SUNY (State University of New York) university and big college sports was never emphasized. Heck our school district’s football stadium is bigger than we had back in the 70s.
The more money that flows the less interest I have in college sports. Especially now that my kids are grown and out of college.
It may be because I went to a SUNY (State University of New York) university and big college sports was never emphasized. Heck our school district’s football stadium is bigger than we had back in the 70s.
@de stijl: Trusty old MIAC. Which school did you go to?
My hope in all this is that they continue to overplay their hand so that schools might consider the idea of educating people instead of paying football coaches celebrity wages.
Every tax dollar that goes to a football coach or a steel and glass student center could go toward a worthwhile cause instead.
(Queue the reactionary “those guys bring donor money to the school!”)
Yes, I understand that y’all had fun when you were 19 years old at the football stadium with your friends watching your team play, and enjoying your first bit of freedom and “independence”, and those glory days are fondly remembered when you are writing alumni checks in response to appeals that tug on those strings.
Go tour the campus one day. You’ll be impressed at the magnificent, ridiculous architecture that your money was spent on instead of educating people. But several buildings do have the donor’s name out front, and the ego boost must be incredible.
@ptfe:
Hamline. The Pipers.
This, added to the transfer portal, has certainly decreased my interest in the sport. I will still watch the playoffs but I dont feel any special allegiance to any school anymore.
Steve
@Michael Cain: Oregon, USC, and UCLA get pretty good TV ratings but, otherwise, true. The game is much more popular in the South and Midwest.
Rumor has it that FL State is trying to start an investment vehicle so that the athletic department essentially becomes for profit. And anyone can invest and get paid out later from media $, etc. And they want to use that to break from the ACC.
The way I saw it explained was the difference between the PGA and the LIV golf leagues.
I’m pretty much against any rules that treat college sports differently from any other venture. So the NIL is important and allowing transfers is important. And so is allowing the schools to associate with whatever grouping they want.
I feel weird holding that position because it’s obvious that greed will ultimately turn college football into a niche sport for fanatics like boxing or formula one. But as long as labor is getting a fair(er) shake, I’m fine moving in that direction.
What we need now is commercial sponsorships for the conferences themselves. The Microsoft Conference, The Amazon Conference, so on. Big banks and corps have the money, students struggling in the trenches, working out the education that will change their lives need it. Synergy demands it. It’ll make “who’s number one?” easier, too. Never again a battle for 1st from a single conference. How bout it?
@Console:
FTFY.
This includes anti-trust exemptions, interstate commerce exemptions, collusive salary caps, etc. Bidness is bidness. And a business run by a not-for-profit university is like a day care run by a church — which is to say, just another business under the law.
Personally, I think this has everything to do with time zones, and when networks get the best ratings for football games.
Because, I’ve been on the wrong side of the country all my life and have seen firsthand what the impact is.
John Wooden could not now do what he did at UCLA because nobody would see the games, and that would make recruiting impossible.
@Michael Cain:
I’m a USC undergrad alum spend most of the year in L.A. County. Yes, football in general is definitely not a religion out here — the local indifference when the Rams won the Super Bowl last year is a running joke here.
USC Football, however, does have big following in SoCal, and not just with alumni. And among USC alumni, college football is a religion.
My USC text message threads were blowing up with unhappy comments about this all over again this morning. The money grab is not popular. My friends — who still so many years after graduation still usually do at least homecoming, the Cal or Stanford Bay Area weekender, an Arizona or Oregon game, and either Notre Dame or UCLA — are not planning to travel east for games post-realignment.
I don’t know that they’re representative, but I’d bet they are. I haven’t heard anything but complaining about the cheese being moved.
@DK:
Wait, the Rams won the Superbowl last season? I didn’t have a clue. St. Louis must be so proud.
I can still barely say the Las Vegas Raiders – it hurts my brain to say. The only thing I know about LV sports is the gloomy gus basketball coach who looked like a mole person chomping on a towel to relieve anxiety.
@DK:
I grew up a USC fan doing back to the John McKay days, even though I ended up attending UCLA (@$1000 per quarter, which included books).
Many of my childhood friends, who never attended any college, much less USC**, are who DK describes. They’re fanatics about USC. They attend every game, sitting in the cheap seats, they arrive three hours early to tailgate, they have USC swag all over their apartments or houses, they have USC bumper stickers, they will travel to certain games. It’s insane to me. But it’s almost their reason for living. And it’s only for football. They don’t know and don’t care about the basketball team, the baseball team, the woman’s gymnastics team. It’s just USC football.
So odd to me. But I’m glad the players are getting some cash now.
**University of Spoiled Children is the running joke for the last 60 years in So Cal when mocking USC
Truth is that in Fall and Winter in So Cal there is way too much fun stuff to do instead of sitting in a stadium full of drunken yahoos watching kids play football. Give me the beach or golf course any day.