Zogby: Kerry 322, Bush 216
Barry Ritholtz passes on a word that a WSJ/Zogby poll has Kerry way up in the electoral college race, contradicting virtually every other poll known to mankind. For example, Slate‘s projection two days ago had it Bush 348, Kerry 190.
A new WSJ.com projection of the Electoral College map, based on online polling done in 16 battleground states by Zogby Interactive, shows that under the survey’s current trends, and assuming Mr. Kerry wins states where he has razor-thin leads now, he would have 322 electoral votes and the president would have 216.
The current Zogby battleground projections:
While my instinct is to dismiss this as an outlier, Zogby does, as Barry notes, have an excellent track record. And Slate‘s revised estimate drops Bush’s lead to 300 to 238. This demonstrates amazing volatility in the numbers.
Update: RealClear Politics, which factors in new polls almost daily, currently has it Bush 264 – Kerry 220. The trends–presumably reflecting the first debate–have been toward Kerry:
10/6: ME/CD2 – Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 264 – Kerry 220)
10/6: PA – Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 – Kerry 221)
10/6: OH – Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 264 – Kerry 200)
10/5: IA – Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 284 – Kerry 200)
9/30: PA – Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 291 – Kerry 200)
9/26: PA – Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 291 – Kerry 221)
9/23: IA – Toss Up >> Leaning Bush (Bush 291 – Kerry 200)
Presumably, a strong Bush showing Friday night will send the pendulum back the other way. Still, even with Pennslyvania in the Kerry column, Bush only needs to pick up six votes from among the toss-up states to hit the magic 270. If, for example, he picked up New Mexico’s 5 electors and the elector from Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, he would win even if Kerry added Ohio’s 20 electors, plus Minnesota’s 10, Oregon’s 7, Iowa’s 7, and New Hampshire’s 4.