This Day in History: Kerry Wins Presidency
Had the 2004 election been held on May 29th, John Kerry would have won handily:
Five years later, it’s Obama 266, McCain 248, Tie 24.
Via Andrew Sullivan, who presumably is trying to illustrate that Obama doesn’t have it wrapped up quite yet and needs to keep pushing on, who in turn got it via Ben Smith, who presumably is hoping to show McCain still has a shot, so we mustn’t give up.
Obviously, a lot can change between now and Election Day. Like, oh, a campaign. Polls are just a snapshot in time, after all.
Further, as Mark Blumenthal notes, our state-level polling is not very good at this stage of the game and is unlikely to be for quite some time. So these averages are based on one or two polls of varying quality.
That said, the best evidence we have available to us right now suggests that Obama should be considered the front runner. If I were forced to bet right now, that’s the way I’d go. But it’s a long way to November.