Kevin Drum posts some interesting survey data on public sentiment over the war.
Not surprisingly, given the steady drumbeat of depressing news (except for Uday and Qusay being “otherwise dealt with”), support is down now compared to the euphoria of May. Indeed, I’m surprised by how little real variation there is in the results.
Kevin qualifies the methodology, but there are some reputable researchers associated with it. But, even if we accept the methodology, there is “a margin of error of +/- 3 to 3.5% (depending on which question asked),” according to page 3 of the PDF.
Let’s assume it’s just three on the support question. Those who still think the war was the right thing to do are then better expressed as a range:
7/03: 42 to 48
6/03: 43 to 49
5/03: 50 to 56
Theoretically, this is just a 2% drop since May (from 50 to 48). If we take it at 3.5%, this is technically a
statistical virtual dead heat.
Update (0847 7-31): Minor correction in the last sentence as per John Lemon’s comments. And I don’t want to be misleading: My guess is that enthusiasm for the war has in fact declined; I’m just saying that as a matter of mathematics, the poll here doesn’t necessarily demonstrate much of a drop.