Congressional Typologies

Grouping House Members by their voting patterns.

Faith In Democracy on the Decline

People around the world are more skeptical about governing institutions.

Diversity Without Quotas

It’s harder than I would have thought.

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A Decades-Long Stock Market Bubble?

The S&P and Nikkei are at all-time highs. Economists warn that it won’t last.

Where The Gays Are

A breakdown of new survey data.

Trump the Supreme Loser

He appointed a third of the Justices but has the worst record before them in modern history.

Fake Nikki Haley Boomlet Continues

The media’s favorite Republican is doing better in some polls than the other candidates losing to Trump.

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States, the Feds, and Revenue Transfers

All states but one receive more in federal money than they pay out in taxes.

Army Pilots Get Unexpected Extension

The personnel bureaucracy reinterpreted regulations.

On Polling and Media Narratives

Some thoughts on polling and the news since 2016.

Convoluted Polling

Plus misleading reporting.

Beware The Exit Polls

The numbers aren’t real. Not yet, anyway.

Push Poll Hackery

Manipulating public opinion with dubious survey research.

Private vs Public Opinion

What we believe and what we say we believe are often not the same.

Judicial Supremacy vs Popular Constitutionalism

Who should have the final say on the law of the land?

Georgia Subpoenas Conservative Group Over Ballot Harvesting Allegations

Why would a group that claims it has evidence of ballot harvesting refuse to turn it over?

American Excess Deaths from COVID

We did much better in 2020 and worse since 2021 than we thought.

The impact of a record: 46% of unemployed U.S. men have criminal convictions

Why clearing criminal records makes economic sense

Are Electric Vehicles Cheaper to Drive?

It depends on how you do the math.

Single-Seat Districts are a Huge Problem

Politicians controlling lines control voters (instead of voters controlling politicians).

Trump Leads Biden in Meaningless Poll

We’re three short years from the next election.

United States Less Democratic Than it Used to Be

Multiple indicators point to a decline in the representativeness of the American system.

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The Election Proved I Was Right All Along

The Pundit’s Fallacy meets opportunism.

How Confident Should We Be in the Polls?

Two prominent media pollsters are hedging their bets.

President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks prior to signing H.R. 1957- The Great American Outdoors Act Tuesday, August 4, 2020, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour) President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks prior to signing H.R. 1957- The Great American Outdoors Act Tuesday, August 4, 2020, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour)

Woodward Revelations Hurting Trump

A new poll shows meaningful shifts in public attitudes.

75 Percent of Democrats Happy with Biden

The Tara Reade allegations haven’t hurt the presumptive nominee with the party.

Undercounting COVID Deaths

The counting methodology is flawed and that’s assuming honest reporting.

Trump May Be Even Less Popular than it Seems

The 45th President polls worse than other prominent Republicans.

Trump Awarded ‘Lie Of The Year’ For Third Time In Five Years

For the third time since 2015, Donald Trump gets Politifact’s “Lie Of The Year.”

Commission On Presidential Debates Sets Schedule For General Election Debates

The Commission on Presidential Debates has released the schedule and criteria for the General Election debates. As usual, the criteria are heavily biased in favor of the major party candidates.

August Jobs Report Falls Below Expectations At +130,000 New Jobs

The August Jobs Report came in below expectations as other economic statistics point to a slowing economy.

Federal Judge Rules Terrorist Watch List Unconstitutional

A Federal Judge in Virginia has found the terrorist watch list unconstitutional.

Trump’s Electoral College Advantage Growing

He could lose the popular vote by an even larger margin in 2020—and still coast to re-election.

John Paul Stevens, Former Supreme Court Justice, Dies At 99

Just over nine years after retiring from the Supreme Court, former Associate Justice John Paul Stevens has passed away at the age of 99.

Trump’s 2020 Campaign Kickoff Speech Unsurprisingly Filled With Lies

Not surprisingly, the President’s opening speech of the 2020 campaign was filed with lies.

Slower May Jobs Growth Adds To Fears Of Economic Downturn

May’s Jobs Report came back with disappointing jobs growth, suggesting that the economy may be slowing down.

April Jobs Report Brings Higher Than Expected Jobs Growth

Jobs Growth in April was much higher than expected, seemingly putting to rest for now fears that the economy might be slowing.

Trump’s 10,000 Lies

The President has hit a dubious milestone barely two years into his administration.

The Demise of Local News and the Rise of National Partisanship

Scholars argue that the shifting media landscape is largely to blame for our political crisis.

We are not Seeing a Soft Coup in the Trump Admininstration

As problematic as some of what we know about the internal workings of the White House may be, it isn’t a coup.

Trump Spreads Lies And Conspiracy Theories About Deaths From Hurricane Maria

President Trump is apparently a Hurricane Maria Truther.

New Report Estimates 2,975 People Died In Puerto Rico Due To Hurricane Maria

A new study concludes that the total death toll from Hurricane Maria was vastly higher than previously reported.

GOP Tax Cuts Not Leading To Increased Wages

Despite Republican hopes, the tax cuts passed by Congress in December are not manifesting themselves in increased wages.

More Americans Killed in School Shootings Than Military Service This Year

In the wake of yesterday’s killing of eight in a Texas high school, WaPo’s Philip Bump provides a chilling statistic.

Ronny Jackson’s Nomination Becomes More Imperiled As Accusations Mount

With the accusations mounting, the nomination of Ronny Jackson to be Secretary of Veterans Affairs is becoming more and more imperiled.

Feds Make 32 Percent Less than Private Sector Counterparts (Or 17 Percent More)

Dueling data on civil service compensation belie the adage that you can’t choose your own facts.

Most Dominant Athletes of the Last 20 Years

ESPN the Magazine has broken out the slide rule to rank the top athletes during its first two decades.

FBI ‘Fears Lasting Damage’ from Politicization of Investigations

A confusing new report from the Washington Post.

Losing Our Religion

Americans as a whole are becoming less religious and some people are panicking about it.