60% Of Voters Say Sarah Palin Is Unelectable

Yet another sign that Sarah Palin’s chances in a General Election race against Barack Obama would be slim indeed:

Sarah Palin might think she could get elected President in 2012, but few Americans agree. Only 28% of voters in the country think that Palin is capable of defeating Barack Obama while 60% think she is not and 12% aren’t sure.

What might be most troubling for Palin within those numbers is that less than half of Republicans think she’s capable of beating Obama- 48% think she would be able to, 37% think she would not be able to, and 15% have no opinion. Republicans continue overwhelmingly to like Palin- 67% have a favorable opinion of her- but a pretty large number of them have serious electability concerns about her.

Many GOP voters who admire Palin may be left having to decide whether it’s more important to them to defeat Barack Obama or to help advance her political career and that may prove to be too high a hurdle for her to overcome.

Other numbers from the poll:

  • 55% of those surveyed have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin, 38% have a favorable opinion, and only 7% have no opinion of her at this time. As we’ve seen in previous polls, Pain is both the politician viewed most unfavorably among potential 2012 Republican candidates, and the one about whom nearly everyone survey has an opinion
  • Palin’s favorable/unfavorable among Republicans (67/25) is higher than it is among independents (37/58).
  • In a head to head match up, Obama beats Palin 51% to 42%, with 7% undecided. As in previous polls, the gap between Obama and Palin is larger than the gap between Obama and any of the other major potential GOP nominees.

All of these numbers are consistent with other polls we’ve seen over the past several months. In a rational world, they would lead a politician to decide that their talents are best used elsewhere, and cause a political party to back away from a candidate that would lead them to almost certain defeat. These are far from rational times, however, so anything could happen.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2012, Politicians, Quick Takes, Sarah Palin, US Politics
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010. Before joining OTB, he wrote at Below The BeltwayThe Liberty Papers, and United Liberty Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. schooner says:

    She’ll probably go the Gingrich root and threaten to run even though no one wants her too but it’ll keep her name in the news and sell some books until her looks go.

  2. Smooth Jazz says:

    <LOL> I can picture Doug now chomping at the bit to get his daily Palin hit piece in: Yum Yum, another anti-Palin poll, Yum Yum. Let me remind you that PPP is a DailyKOS pollster that is well known for tweaking samples to get the story line out they want to push. To quote this poll without pointing out their bias or affiliation with a left wing hate site is misleading your readers.
    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Polls by agenda pushers 2 years in advance mean nothing. If and when she runs, Gov Palin will have the opportunity to make her case. If she makes it sucessfully, she will be judged on the merits, and will perhaps ride the historic aspect of a woman chief executive to the Presidency. If she does not and flubs like she did in 2008, she will be sent home to Wasilla or Fox or wherever when the time comes.
    For you to suggest she should just pack up and go home is the position of an elitist snab who eschews the competition, and deny her the opportuntiy to make her case. At a minimum, she should not be relying on overty partisan polls as you seem to suggest.
     

  3. Smooth Jazz,
    As the old saying goes, facts are stubborn things and as much as you might try to disparage this particular poll it is entirely consistent with numerous others that have been taken over the past several months. All of them show that Palin is highly unpopular, and that she would likely lose a match against President Obama. You can either acknowledge those facts, or you can insult me for writing a blog post about them. Your choice says much about you.

  4. Tano says:

    In a rational world,…

     
    I don’t know Doug. It depends on what your objectives are. The political professionals in the GOP will, of course, agree with you – they will resist having the party commit suicide in 2012. One can see that in a positive light – they are working to keep one of our major parties relevant and in the business of constructing a potentially winning coalition, but also in a negative light – because the professionals are interested in one thing above all – power. What they actually do with that power is of secondary concern.
     
    Others can quite rationally imagine the GOP as a vehicle for the propagation of certain policy positions, and in that context, to win power without a firm set of principles in mind is a very bad outcome. Not only will the principles not be enacted, but the vehicle, the party, will be tarred as feckless – or even worse, it will be seen as delivering a failed version of the principles, thus undermining the appeal of those principles in the future.
     
    That too is a rational position. One can call it the Goldwater approach. And while its hard to draw a straight line from Goldwater to Reagan (given the Nixon era), one could argue that Goldwater’s effort set in motion a movement within the party that did bear fruition 16 years later.
     
    I think that rather than considering it rationality vs irrationality, it might be considered playing for the short term vs. the long term – even though either, or both strategies may be flawed for other reasons.

  5. Patrick T. McGuire says:

    “Only 28% of voters in the country think that Palin is capable of defeating Barack Obama while 60% think she is not and 12% aren’t sure.”
    I guess this means that 60% won’t be voting for her then, huh? Now what were the polls saying about the Republicans winning 60+ seats in the House two years before the elections were held? I seem to remember something about the total demise of the Republican Party.

  6. Smooth Jazz says:

    “As the old saying goes, facts are stubborn things and as much as you might try to disparage this particular poll it is entirely consistent with numerous others that have been taken over the past several months.”
     
    The only “fact” you and I can agree on is that the 2012 Presidential election is in Nov 2012 not Nov 2010, and polls in Nov 2010 reflect views on Gov Palin that carried over from 2008 and from an increasingly hostile press. For you to try to suggest a poll taken by a partisan pollster is reflective of what the American people will feel in Nov 2012 is more indicative of your internal bias IMO. In other words, we will not know how she matches up with Obama until we get to 2012.
    I saw a Zogby Poll that put her within a point of Obama recently:
    http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1924
    Who is to say PPP is more accurate than Zogby.
    And please do not twist my words. I CONCEDE NOTHING TO GOV PALIN. And have no idea who I will support in 2012. Gov Palin will have to demonstrate that she can pass muster. Then and only then will I know whether I can support her or not. My point is your suggestion she should get out the race NOW because of preconceived biases, before she proves herself real time, is a position I would expect from a left wing hate blog not a supposedly moderate site.
     

  7. The Zogby poll is an online poll that contains numerous statistical flaws. Nobody takes it seriously anymore

  8. Wayne says:

    So a bias PPP poll is fact but the Zogby poll is not to be taken seriously.  Yep no bias there.

  9. Terrye says:

    The problem for Palin is that it is not just some PPP poll that shows these results, it is virtually every poll. Sometimes the numbers are not as bad for her, but the trend is always the same, Independents do not like her.
    One thing I have noticed about Palin’s strongest supporters, they assume that anyone who says something about Palin that they don’t want to hear, is out to get her. They see her as the eternal victim, always the underdog, always picked on and as such they have to defend her against anyone and everyone who evidences something other than mindless adoration for her. This does not help Palin, in fact it hurts her.
    If Palin got the nomination, I would vote for her, but I honestly do not think she can win a general election. There is time to change people’s minds, but not if people refuse to see the reality of the situation.

  10. Terrye says:

    Wayne: No online poll like that Zogby poll is reliable.

  11. Smooth Jazz says:

    <The problem for Palin is that it is not just some PPP poll that shows these results, it is virtually every poll.>
    Well, AP/Gfk, a left leaning poll, recently had her 46/49 Fav/Unfav which appears to be much better than PPP/DailyKOS 28/60 and other recent polls.
    http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/ap-gfk-poll-palin-736261.html
    “In the wake of her high-profile role in endorsing candidates all over the country, 46 percent of Americans view her favorably, 49 percent unfavorably, and 5 percent don’t know enough about her to form an opinion”
    46/49 is not a bad baseline to build on. I suspect 40% are dead set against her no matter what, 40% are with her, and another 20% willing to wait until the candidates perform in 2011 & 2012 to decide either way. Her VP debate performance against Biden in 2008 was neutral at worst and judged to be very well done by many. Perhaps she will be polished, decisive and more appealling beyond her 40% base by 2012. The fact that other Repubs are coming out against her means nothing at this point since they may have another preferred candidate.
    What I don’t understand is why people, including the bloggers on this forum, suggest she should just shut up, pack up and go home now – based on media generated and biased polls, and a hostile media. Why not just let the competition decide. Obama certainly isn’t inspiring much confidence these days.

  12. Smooth Jazz says:

    <No online poll like that Zogby poll is reliable.>
    Fair point. But Wayne has a valid point as well: What makes a pollster affiliated with a partisan left wing blog (DailyKOS) more reliable than an independent online poll. An online poll “can” be reliable; It depends on whether the respondents are a representative sample.  

  13. Wayne says:

    People can pick and choose what poll and what poll questions support their agenda. That doesn’t make their agenda or even those polls facts. Asking people if they think Palin can beat Obama is not the same as asking them who they would vote for. There have been polls that show Palin within a point or two of Obama. However those polls don’t support Doug’s agenda therefore they are ignored or discounted. One can only question the validity of a poll if it doesn’t fit his agenda.
    One minor point, the Republican establishments by no means have been backing Palin. Many of those so call moderates\liberals in the party probably didn’t support her in the poll. Would they in a general election? I am not sure.
     
    Terrye
    Can you name anyone that is attack by the MSM and political establishment as much as Palin? The reason many see Palin as being under constant and often unfair attacks is because that is what has been happening.
     
    IMO someone like Barbour, Jindal or Christi will be the GOP nominee. IMO the only way Palin wins is if the GOP establishment and so call GOP moderates keep attacking her which could result in a backlash. The Tea Party sent a message to the GOP this last election as well as the DNC. If they ignore it they will pay.

  14. anjin-san says:

    >  The reason many see Palin as being under constant and often unfair attacks is because that is what has been happening.
     
    Perhaps you could document some of these unfair attacks, and provide proof that they are indeed unfair.

  15. Tano says:

    People can pick and choose what poll and what poll questions support their agenda

     
    Here ya go Wayne. Pick and choose the poll that supports your agenda. – LINK
     

  16. Terrye says:

    Wayne:
     
    What difference does it make if I can name anyone who has been attacked as much as Palin? Do you think people will vote for her as President as a sort of consolation prize because people have been mean to her? I think George Bush was attacked by all sorts of people for years, but I don’t remember any whining about all the time.
     
    This is the problem with Palin supporters, yes, Palin was unfairly maligned, not all criticism of her is evil and bad..anyone in politics in this country has to have a tough skin and that goes for their supporters.
    Palin might be able to change the perception of her among Independents, but I doubt it. I think that she is unpopular among Independents and Democrats as well of course and I think a lot of Republicans are also starting to get weary of all the Palin stories, and Palin sucking up all the air. There is such a thing as over exposure.

  17. Terrye says:

    And I don’t think people are telling her to shut up smooth jazz, that is part of the problem with Palin..her strongest supporters seem to think that if you are not totally crazy about her then you want her to shut up and go home..no, but it would be nice if we could talk about her like we talk about any other possible candidate, in a rational and objective way..without all the stuff about how mean everyone is and how awful it has been.
    I was on another site and they were talking about the next election and of course Palin’s people said it had to be her, could only be her, the Tea Party wanted her, she was the only decent candidate. Mitch Daniels sucked, Romney sucked, they were all bad…and when I mentioned that I lived in Indiana and that I doubted if Daniels could win, but that he was a good Governor with a strong record..I was informed that I was a RINO, a squish, and that Daniels was Obama light and a disaster. Just like that, and that is how it always is with any Palin supporter, instead of just making a case for her there has to be this scorched earth policy that lays everyone else to waste..it is very off putting and it does not help her. In this way I think some of her supporters are less help to her than some of her detractors might ultimately be.

  18. Tano says:

    Her VP debate performance against Biden in 2008 was neutral at worst and judged to be very well done by many.

     
    CBS Poll:
    Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.
     
    CNN;
    A CNN poll following Thursday’s vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin found that 51 percent of the people surveyed thought Biden won, 36 percent thought Palin was the victor.
     
    Fox: Biden 55%, Palin 45%
     
    MediaCurves real-time poll amongst independents Biden 69%, Palin 31%
     
    Even Rasmussen – Biden 45%, Palin 37%
     
    You are deluding yourself, SJ…

     
    Perhaps she will be polished, decisive and more appealling beyond her 40% base by 2012

     
    She does not have a 40% base. You just made that up two sentences earlier. More delusion. Some polls show her with up to 40% favorability ratings, but those are very different than job apporvals, or willingness to vote for. Far less than 40% think she is qualified to be president, which is the minimal bar you need to get over before even being considered seriously by people.
     

    What I don’t understand is why people, including the bloggers on this forum, suggest she should just shut up, pack up and go home now

     
    They are Republicans, and they do not want to throw away the opportunity to maybe win. They understand that a second Obama term will have huge consequences – it will be a ratification, by the people, of everything he has done in the first term, and will thus be a mortal wound to the opposition, as it has been defining itself for these past two years. It will solidify this time as an “age of Obama”. They are desparate to stop that.
     
    Me, I am a liberal democrat. All I can say is – go Sarah!

  19. narciso says:

    We shall see, horse race polls are so blase, they don’t tell us anything of note, if those sampled could tell us five accurate things about her record, you fail Doug, having not corrected the record on Couric’s edited broadcast, in light of the Journolist, et al.

  20. Terrye says:

    narciso:
    I think Couric edited the interviews as well, etc. But Americans have seen a lot of Palin since then and the problem is that certain negative impressions of her have become very intransigent. I mean, people don’t just get their impressions of Palin from an interview done 2 years ago with Couric.
    I understand that Palin speaks for a lot of people and I think that a lot of people who feel that they have been over looked, forgotten or just plain ignored for years respond to Palin. No doubt there is a certain regional snobbery at play here with some people just not liking the country girl. But it is not that simple anymore. I live in a rural area and most people here like Palin, but that does not mean they want her to be president.
     

  21. G.A.Phillips says:

    Joe Biden, lol…….

  22. The Olde Man says:

    I have come to the conclusion that Sarah is running a Machiavellian campaign, one based on isolating all the Good Olde Boys in both parties.  She is appealing directly to the Joe SixPack vote figuring that there just may be enough of them out there, if aroused, will put her in.
    The GOP establishment is not terrified that she might lose, they are terrified she might win. Because if she does, they are out and will probably stay out.
    The Demos think that O can beat her.  Unfortunately, she may be the only one that O can beat.  Do they dare stay with him only to discover it is not Sarah running?
    Tough decisions.