Outside the Beltway

Biden to Reshape Joint Chiefs

He's likely to make heads explode.

James Joyner · Tuesday, April 18, 2023 · 10 comments

At POLITICO, Lara Seligman and Connor O’Brien point to the upcoming “Joint Chiefs shuffle: Biden’s top contenders to replace Trump’s military leaders.” The setup:

Donald Trump handpicked the nation’s top military brass while he was in office. Now it’s Joe Biden’s turn.

As many as five members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the eight most senior uniformed leaders who advise the president on military issues, are scheduled to leave their assignments this year. Besides the Joint Chiefs chair, the heads of the Army, Navy, Marine Corps and potentially the Air Force are all set to leave. Three of the military’s top operational commanders are changing over as well: The heads of Northern Command, Space Command and Cyber Command.

I was naturally aware that Mark Milley’s term as chairman was up (indeed, I wrote about it in January) as was David Berger’s as Marine Commandant but hadn’t realized so many others were due this year. It’s odd that the terms aren’t more staggered but Space Force is new and the last two Chairmen were elevated from roles as service chiefs, disrupting the cycle.

But here’s where it gets interesting:

It’s also an opportunity for Biden, who named the first Black defense secretary in 2021, to make more historic appointments, including the first female member of the Joint Chiefs. Last year, Biden chose Adm. Linda Fagan to be the first female commandant of the Coast Guard, which operates under the Department of Homeland Security.

I think it’s almost a given. And there’s a strong possibility that the overall picture of the Joint Chiefs will be radically more diverse: there have only been two non-white men in the picture and never a woman.

POLITICO spoke to 11 current and former Defense Department officials, as well as leaders in academia with knowledge of the discussions to forecast who’s in the running for the jobs. Some were granted anonymity to discuss the subject ahead of the announcements.

My circles are more limited but their consensus on the Chairman and Marine Commandant matches what I’ve heard and a woman reportedly being considered for two jobs is one that I have touted for a while as the obvious choice to break the glass ceiling.

Chairman:

The frontrunner: Air Force Gen. C.Q. Brown

If you ask most people at DoD, the shoo-in for the top job is Gen. C.Q. Brown, the Air Force chief of staff. Brown, a fighter pilot by training, has stellar credentials, serving as commander of the service’s forces both in the Middle East and in the Pacific. He is also the first Black man to serve as Air Force chief of staff, and was nominated for the job the same summer as the Black Lives Matter protests swept the nation.

Brown is not known for making news, and typically sticks closely to the talking points during public appearances and press engagements. But in a rare candid moment, he weighed in on the racial unrest roiling the country in an emotional video describing his experience navigating the issue in the military.

Tapping Brown for the top job would mean plucking him from his current post before his term is up. He was sworn in Aug. 6, 2020, and has another year left as the Air Force’s top officer.

Marine Corps Gen. David Berger

The White House is also considering Gen. David Berger, the Marine Corps Commandant, who has served in the post since July 2019.

Berger “connected” more with the president during his interview for the job, one former DoD official said. Berger’s interview lasted 90 minutes, while Brown’s interview lasted only 40, another former DoD official said.

A career infantry officer, Berger has commanded troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Pacific. Yet he is seen as controversial in some corners of the military. His vision for reshaping the Marines by shedding heavy weaponry in favor of a lighter, faster force has drawn criticism, particularly from retired generals.

The longer interview for Berger doesn’t mean he has the job of course, but one person familiar with both Berger and Brown pointed out that the Marine leader is considered more talkative than the analytical Brown. Plus, Berger’s almost total rethinking of how the Marine Corps will be positioned to fight — particularly in the Pacific — is by far the most ambitious retooling of any of the services in decades, which could have sparked more conversation.

One factor that might weigh against Berger is that the current vice chair, Adm. Christopher Grady, is a Navy officer. Lawmakers frown on having a chair and vice chair from within a department, such as the Department of the Navy, which includes both the Navy and Marine Corps.

Army Gen. Laura Richardson

DoD insiders aren’t ruling out Gen. Laura Richardson, an Army officer serving as the commander of U.S. Southern Command. She is one of only 10 women ever to hold the rank of a four-star general or admiral. A helicopter pilot, Richardson previously served as commanding general of U.S. Army North, and has commanded an assault helicopter battalion in Iraq. She also served as military aide to former Vice President Al Gore, and the Army’s legislative liaison to Congress.

But one unofficial rule of the process is that no two consecutive chairs should be from the same service. Since Milley is also an Army officer, Richardson may be at a disadvantage. However, she is also seen as a candidate to replace Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville.

I would be, frankly, shocked if it’s not Brown. He’s just such an obvious choice for the job. He’s a great speaker, incredibly non-controversial, and universally admired within the Air Force and the Joint community. Berger has been the bigger mover as a service reformer, but Brown has been right behind him. Either would be outstanding, but there’s just no way Biden is going to pass up appointing the second Black Chairman. (Brown was, amazingly, the first Black service chief.) Were the President to prefer Berger, however, the fact that both he and the Vice are technically under the Department of the Navy would rightly give him zero pause.

Richardson would likely be just fine as Chairman but she doesn’t have the credentials of the other two. SOUTHCOM is widely considered a bottom-tier combatant command. Yes, the first woman Chairman would be quite the statement, but she’d also be the first woman military service chief.* And I’ve thought since she pinned on her 4th star that she would be the obvious choice to break that barrier. Most of the other women who’ve held that rank have been logisticians but she’s a combat arms officer and would be seen as legitimate by most. (There will, undoubtedly, some who will object to having someone other than an Infantry, Armor, Artillery, or Special Forces officer in the role—which would, of course, assure we don’t have a woman for several more decades.)

I’m a former Army officer and do my best to keep up with my former service but must admit I’m not all that familiar with the other candidates for Chief of Staff:

The frontrunner: Army Gen. Randy George

While Richardson is a contender, the top candidate for Army chief of staff is Gen. Randy George, who is serving in the vice chief of staff role. George is an infantry officer who served in the 101st Airborne Division and deployed in support of the Gulf War. He also served as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s senior military assistant from June 2021 to July 2022.

Army Gen. Andrew Poppas

Another possibility is Gen. Andrew Poppas, a former commanding general of the 101st Airborne Division. He’s the head of Army Forces Command, a position Milley also held before becoming the Army’s top officer. Poppas also served as director of operations of the Joint Staff at the Pentagon, a post Austin held in 2009.

Amusingly, though I don’t have much recollection of them, both were classmates of mine at West Point. (To be fair, they spent four years there, whereas I departed after three semesters.) They’re both Infantry officers with more traditional career paths than Richardson—who was commissioned two years earlier.

I’m not at all familiar with the CNO candidates:

The frontrunner: Navy Adm. Lisa Franchetti

Navy Adm. Lisa Franchetti, currently the vice chief of naval operations, is widely seen as a lock for the top job. The second woman to hold the vice CNO job, Franchetti also holds a degree in journalism. A career surface warfare officer, Franchetti served on the Joint Staff, and commanded the destroyer USS Ross.

Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo

There has also been some talk of Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of the Pacific Fleet, as a possible candidate. He is a longshot, however, and is considered the top pick to take over as head of Indo-Pacific Command in two years when Adm. John Aquilino moves on.

As with Brown to Chairman, it’s hard to believe Biden will pass up a chance to make history with the first woman CNO. I remain mildly surprised that President Obama didn’t take the chance to elevate Michelle Howard when Jonathan Greenert retired in September 2015 but she hadn’t been in the Vice billet very long.

As to the Air Force:

The frontrunner: Gen. Jacqueline Von Ovost

If Brown is tapped to be the next chair, that creates an opening to be the top leader of the Air Force.

There’s a lot of buzz around Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, who as the commander of U.S. Transportation Command has been at the center of all DoD’s most high-profile efforts during the Biden administration. Her forces moved vaccines during the Covid-19 response, flew evacuees from Kabul airport in 2021 and are shipping weapons to Ukraine. She is the first female head of Transportation Command, and would be the first woman to head the Air Force.

Gen. David Allvin

The Air Force’s No. 2 military officer since 2020, Allvin previously served as the director for strategy, plans, and policy on the Joint Staff. He comes from the air mobility community and commanded forces in Afghanistan and Europe.

Culturally, it seems odd that the top two candidates are from the mobility community. Pretty much every Chief since the post was established in 1947 has been from either the fighter or bomber community, with fighters dominating the last four decades. Indeed, as best I can tell with a quick scan, Norton Schwartz (2008-2012) was the only exception. He was a C-130 pilot by trade but had a lot of time flying in the special forces community (MC-130s, Pave Lows, Pave Hawks) as well.

Finally, Berger’s time a Marine Commandant is soon ending whether he’s the next Chairman or rides off into the sunset. The candidates POLITICO sees as his replacement match my sense:

The frontrunner: Gen. Eric Smith

Gen. Eric Smith is the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps, making him the service’s No. 2 general. He has commanded at every level, including in Iraq and Afghanistan. As a general officer, he commanded the Marine Corps’ forces in U.S. Southern Command, as well as Marine Corps Combat Development Command. He also served in the Pentagon as senior military assistant to the defense secretary in 2016 to 2017.

Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl

While Smith has for months topped the list as a successor to Berger, another candidate in high standing is Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, who leads the Marine Corps’ Combat Development Command. In that job, Heckl has pushed to test and implement Berger’s reforms, and he has in many ways been the service’s public face for modernization in the Berger vein.

Smith is far more likely, I think, but both would continue Berger’s course, to the consternation of many a retired Marine general.

Here’s the thing, though: Can you imagine the howls of protest if we get a Black Chairman and have women leading the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Coast Guard? While not the likeliest outcome, it’s certainly within the realm of the possible. The cries of “Biden’s woke military” will be loud, indeed.

________

*As noted in the POLITICO report, Fagan is the first woman service chief, but while the Coast Guard is an armed service, it’s not a military service.