I have various thoughts that are still forming about the outcomes yesterday, but one thing I did not expect was that Lauren Boebert would be in a very tight race.
Via the NYT, she is trailing (but there is still 10% to count). The Times still has the seat as likely Boebert given where the outstanding voters are coming from, but it would be a welcome repudiation of the Q-Anon wing of the party if she were to lose her seat.
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The NY Times “likely Boebert” call makes no sense, I think their assessment must be some automated algorithm based on pre-election-day polling. The majority of outstanding votes are from Pueblo, which partial results show has voted heavily for her opponent so far
@daryl and his brother darryl: @Robert: They stopped updating their Needle at 4 a.m., so their forecast hasn’t been updated with the votes that have come in since. It’s sure looking like a flip.
Predicting unexpected close races in what, historically have been very partisan districts is tough. The fact that the race is close, has already upset expectations based on past behavior.
Just top of my head math, she needs to make up about 3,500 out of 20,000 still out. Per WaPo this is a +8 (R) district, two other (R) running in +10 (R) districts are winning by big margins
In similar but not quite as good news: Mayra Flores, who I only know because Twitter would show me her twits, lost in Texas. She wasn’t Boebert-level stupid, I don’t think, but her twits were a very annoying, smug combination of bible-thumping and new age Republican Latino reality-shaping. Good riddance.
@reid: Was Flores one of the three female Congressional candidates that Ted Cruz stumping for earlier as (in the most tasteless trope I’ve come across in a looooooong time) the “three spicy tacos?”
Boebert won by slightly over 6 points in 2018. I’m assuming those who put her over the top might have realized by now what an imbecile she is.
There is some of that, but also, the district boundaries changed slightly during redistricting, though it’s not yet clear how big of a factor that will play.
As a Coloradan, I’m still surprised she’s doing so poorly, but hopeful that she gets shown the door.
@Just Another Ex-Republican: MTG’s district is far more Republican than Boebert’s. It’s rated as R+28 by Cook under its new boundaries. Yes, there are the occasional upsets in very red districts, but not this red; that would be utterly unprecedented as far as I know. (The same is true in the other direction; I don’t believe a Republican has ever won a D+28 district.)
Adam Frisch (D) self-identified right from jump as a “conservative businessman” so inoculated himself against the usual lying accusations about commies.
Now the question is: will she concede if she can’t catch up? Or are we looking at mini-trump claims of fraud? Popcorn time!
Wow, Boebert might come out on top in a recount, that is a crazy small difference in the number of votes between the two of them.
I will say this, I am guessing there were concerns that if the Red Wave materialized in the Senate that enough R Senators and a defection from say, Sinema and Manchin, could cause real trouble for Biden. As things stand now even if the R’s get to 51/52, all they can do is introduce bills that will get vetoed all day long by Biden as they are not even remotely close to a veto proof majority.
Nothing being done in the Senate for 2 years would suck but I will take gridlock over having to actually bend over for the GOP over the next 2 years. As far as the House, it looks like the “majority” that the GOP may have is also far from a super-majority, meaning that the GOP needs to be careful in assuming that 100% of Republican members of the House will always vote the way McCarthy wants them to, that is a dangerous assumption.
I forgot which GOP rep it is who said this, but I was reading earlier today that a GOP member said that it might be good for the GOP if their majority in the House is slim enough that it forces McCarthy to think twice about wanting to spend the next 2 years pining after Hunter Biden’s laptop and to try and feel out his caucus in the House and determine what might be worth pursuing (and Biden can always use his own lawyers to tell the GOP to pound sand and not just volunteer to get grilled like Clinton did, all the good it did her to play nice with the GOP, pretty sure a lot of D’s in the House and Senate have learned that playing nice with GOP investigations gets them nothing in return but the stress of having quite a few loons grandstand by asking you a bunch of dumb gotcha type questions).
Maybe. There will be an automatic recount before anything is official.
Still, either way, and extraordinary result.
538 had her with a 97% chance to win and a 14 point spread. Looking at the polling, I’m not sure where they got that:
– there were only three polls in the district, the last one was in early October
– Only two pollsters – a B/C rated pollster and a PAC poll.
– The spread in the polling ranged from Frisch +5 to Boebert +7.
In short, I’m not sure how 538 turned that into a 14-point spread with a 97% confidence in a Boebert win.
I think this points to one of the polling errors that will get discussed after this election – not enough polls (or even zero) in many districts, leading to a lot of guessing.
In short, I’m not sure how 538 turned that into a 14-point spread with a 97% confidence in a Boebert win.
Just off the cuff–the district’s strong Republican lean; Boebert’s incumbency; the presumed national pro-Republican mood that was supposed to produce the “red wave” this year; and the apparent lack of attention paid to this race, suggesting Dems weren’t seriously contesting it.
UPDATE: Democrat Adam Frisch is poised to upset Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert in CO-3, based on a 9NEWS analysis of remaining ballots, which are largely in counties where Frisch holds strong leads. #copolitics
That’s already old info. Boebert is currently ahead, but there are still ballots from Pueblo to be counted, which leans D. At this point, whoever wins will only win by a very small margin.
And this race could well come down to military and overseas votes – which are coming in over the next several days.
Chase Woodruff is probably the best reporter to follow for this race:
Oh please, please, please…
I think the NYT is wrong.
I don’t think she can close the gap.
The NY Times “likely Boebert” call makes no sense, I think their assessment must be some automated algorithm based on pre-election-day polling. The majority of outstanding votes are from Pueblo, which partial results show has voted heavily for her opponent so far
@daryl and his brother darryl: @Robert: They stopped updating their Needle at 4 a.m., so their forecast hasn’t been updated with the votes that have come in since. It’s sure looking like a flip.
Last night she tweeted;
Turned out to be just some light spotting.
With 93% reporting Frisch is ahead of Boebert, 50.6 to 49.4.
This is getting close to a flip.
Predicting unexpected close races in what, historically have been very partisan districts is tough. The fact that the race is close, has already upset expectations based on past behavior.
@CSK:
Just top of my head math, she needs to make up about 3,500 out of 20,000 still out. Per WaPo this is a +8 (R) district, two other (R) running in +10 (R) districts are winning by big margins
@charon:
Boebert won by slightly over 6 points in 2018. I’m assuming those who put her over the top might have realized by now what an imbecile she is.
@daryl and his brother darryl:
Seems as good a time as any to remind everyone the gods really, really hate hubris.
In similar but not quite as good news: Mayra Flores, who I only know because Twitter would show me her twits, lost in Texas. She wasn’t Boebert-level stupid, I don’t think, but her twits were a very annoying, smug combination of bible-thumping and new age Republican Latino reality-shaping. Good riddance.
CO3 — 93% reporting currently
Adam Frisch [D] 50.6% 149,421 votes
Lauren Boebert [R] 49.4% 145,946 votes
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE…
This really would be lovely. I’m almost worried about getting my hopes up.
This, and Sean Patrick Maloney losing his seat, are clear indicators that strange things can happen.
@reid: Was Flores one of the three female Congressional candidates that Ted Cruz stumping for earlier as (in the most tasteless trope I’ve come across in a looooooong time) the “three spicy tacos?”
@Just nutha ignint cracker: I hadn’t heard that, but I can certainly believe it! The two of them would have reveled in the tastelessness.
@CSK:
There is some of that, but also, the district boundaries changed slightly during redistricting, though it’s not yet clear how big of a factor that will play.
As a Coloradan, I’m still surprised she’s doing so poorly, but hopeful that she gets shown the door.
According to Ballotpedia, under its new boundaries Trump won the district by 8.2 points.
If only the same thing had happened to Marjorie. Though I’m glad to see my birth state has some sense of shame left.
@Just Another Ex-Republican: MTG’s district is far more Republican than Boebert’s. It’s rated as R+28 by Cook under its new boundaries. Yes, there are the occasional upsets in very red districts, but not this red; that would be utterly unprecedented as far as I know. (The same is true in the other direction; I don’t believe a Republican has ever won a D+28 district.)
Adam Frisch (D) self-identified right from jump as a “conservative businessman” so inoculated himself against the usual lying accusations about commies.
Now the question is: will she concede if she can’t catch up? Or are we looking at mini-trump claims of fraud? Popcorn time!
Hmmm.
From that picture above, it looks like she got the stripper strut down great.
But that face. Ooof.
CO District 3 96% reporting
Adam Frisch -D- 50%
154,122 votes
Lauren Boebert -R- 50%
154,060 votes
@Gavin:
Wow, Boebert might come out on top in a recount, that is a crazy small difference in the number of votes between the two of them.
I will say this, I am guessing there were concerns that if the Red Wave materialized in the Senate that enough R Senators and a defection from say, Sinema and Manchin, could cause real trouble for Biden. As things stand now even if the R’s get to 51/52, all they can do is introduce bills that will get vetoed all day long by Biden as they are not even remotely close to a veto proof majority.
Nothing being done in the Senate for 2 years would suck but I will take gridlock over having to actually bend over for the GOP over the next 2 years. As far as the House, it looks like the “majority” that the GOP may have is also far from a super-majority, meaning that the GOP needs to be careful in assuming that 100% of Republican members of the House will always vote the way McCarthy wants them to, that is a dangerous assumption.
I forgot which GOP rep it is who said this, but I was reading earlier today that a GOP member said that it might be good for the GOP if their majority in the House is slim enough that it forces McCarthy to think twice about wanting to spend the next 2 years pining after Hunter Biden’s laptop and to try and feel out his caucus in the House and determine what might be worth pursuing (and Biden can always use his own lawyers to tell the GOP to pound sand and not just volunteer to get grilled like Clinton did, all the good it did her to play nice with the GOP, pretty sure a lot of D’s in the House and Senate have learned that playing nice with GOP investigations gets them nothing in return but the stress of having quite a few loons grandstand by asking you a bunch of dumb gotcha type questions).
The gap roars ever farther apart! All the way to.. 73 votes.
CO District 3 98% reporting
Adam Frisch -D- 50%
155,579 votes
Lauren Boebert -R- 50%
155,506 votes
@Gavin: OMG, you’re giving me a heart attack! Please let her lose!!!
CO District 3 99% reporting. Margin: 64 votes
Frisch -D- 156,746
Boebert -R- 156,682
@Gavin: Just in case people think their votes don’t count!
All the national places show 99% reported; CO sec state website shows 100% results reported for District 3.
Ladies and gentlemen, we got her.
@Gavin:
Maybe. There will be an automatic recount before anything is official.
Still, either way, and extraordinary result.
538 had her with a 97% chance to win and a 14 point spread. Looking at the polling, I’m not sure where they got that:
– there were only three polls in the district, the last one was in early October
– Only two pollsters – a B/C rated pollster and a PAC poll.
– The spread in the polling ranged from Frisch +5 to Boebert +7.
In short, I’m not sure how 538 turned that into a 14-point spread with a 97% confidence in a Boebert win.
I think this points to one of the polling errors that will get discussed after this election – not enough polls (or even zero) in many districts, leading to a lot of guessing.
Actually, there are a couple of thousand ballots left to count, which won’t happen until tomorrow:
https://www.chieftain.com/story/news/local/2022/11/09/adam-frisch-has-a-small-lead-over-lauren-boebert-in-initial-returns-for-cd3/69590894007/
@Andy:
Just off the cuff–the district’s strong Republican lean; Boebert’s incumbency; the presumed national pro-Republican mood that was supposed to produce the “red wave” this year; and the apparent lack of attention paid to this race, suggesting Dems weren’t seriously contesting it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleClark/status/1590495953144139776
@charon:
That’s already old info. Boebert is currently ahead, but there are still ballots from Pueblo to be counted, which leans D. At this point, whoever wins will only win by a very small margin.
And this race could well come down to military and overseas votes – which are coming in over the next several days.
Chase Woodruff is probably the best reporter to follow for this race:
https://twitter.com/dcwoodruff