Condi Rice as Hillary Killer?

Dick Morris seems to think so.

The political fact is that a Rice candidacy would destroy the electoral chances of the Democratic Party by undermining its demographic base. John Kerry got 54 percent of his vote from three groups that, together, account for about a third of the American electorate: African-Americans, Hispanics and single white women. Rice would cut deeply into any Democrat̢۪s margin among these three groups and would, most especially, deny Clinton the strong support she would otherwise receive from each of them.

I’d be interested to see polling data supporting this contention, which I find dubious. So far, I’ve seen little evidence that blacks are particularly drawn to black Republicans. Clarence Thomas, J.C. Watts, Condi Rice–and even the moderate Colin Powell–seem to be much more hailed among whites than blacks. Similarly, nothing I’ve seen indicates a pro-Condi groundswell among Democrat-leaning Hispanics or single women.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2008, Gender Issues
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. I think the debate entirely misses the most interesting point. Just think of the historical signifigance of a Hillary vs. Condi campaign, regardless of who wins. And think of how much progress has been made that we’re even talking about it seriously right now.

    This is a good thing.

  2. I have been predicting this for months and with Morris’ endorsement, my prediction finally has teeth. What this also means is the woman card has been negated and Republicans may trump with a BLACK candidate. 😉 Not to self promote, but read about it more on my blog where I jsut posted an entry about this…

  3. NG says:

    Is Condi really considering running? Every blog keeps mentioning her as a possible candidate, but has she even indicated any such desire?

    That said, Alan Keyes didn’t exactly cut into the black vote in Illinois, his primary support was party-line Republican voters.

    And yes, the simple fact that we are talking about women and minorities running for president does show a lot of progress.

  4. NG says:

    Also, this part confused me:

    “As a social conservative and deeply religious person, she would face no bar in winning the votes of the Christian right, so crucial to winning the Republican nomination. Unlike former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) — both of whom could probably win in November — she would be very attractive to the pro-life, anti-gun-control, anti-affirmative-action base of the GOP.”

    I thought it was well known that Condi is pro-abortion and supports affirmative action?

  5. Attila Girl says:

    I believe the argument might be, she’s never appeared in drag in public, or lived with a gay person, or taken part in a gay pride parade.

  6. Kent says:

    Dick Morris is unscrupulous, opportunistic, and amoral. He is also astonishingly candid and knows politics awfully well. This makes him the modern Machiavelli.

    If he says Condi could clobber Hillary, he probably believes it, and he may well be right. What is interesting to contemplate is his motivation for saying it.

  7. czigan says:

    NG Alan Keyes ran against a liberal black. Remember Osama bin Obama …just ask Teddy?

  8. Tom Carter says:

    If the Democrats are nutty enough to nominate Hillary in 2008, they’re just setting themselves up to lose yet again. The efforts she’s made lately to camouflage her ultra-liberal elitism aren’t going to help her much in a national election. If the Republicans nominate even a half-way serious candidate in 2008, and that certainly includes Condi Rice, they can beat her. As one who sincerely hopes the Democratic Party gets back in the game, I shudder at the thought that they might actually nominate her.

  9. Just Me says:

    I don’t see Condi on the top of the ticket, I see her in the number two spot though.

    I think she would be a good way to neutralize Hillary, but I don’t know that African Americans will flock to her, depends a lot on how well the dems do at reaching out to them, the DNC still has a lock on the AA vote, and many AA’s paint the conservative ones as “Uncle Toms” etc.

  10. Rob M says:

    I have seen African-American women who are republicans lose to democrats in Congressional races . They made no real progress in getting higher votes from AAs or women.

    So I will not be betting my home on Condi.

  11. McGehee says:

    What is interesting to contemplate is his motivation for saying it.

    Always a good point, but the more so with Dick Morris.