Could McCain Win Minnesota?

Minnesotan Ed Morrisey got an email from Team McCain informing him that the state is “a dead heat” based on a Survey USA poll.  Ed then cites some research that Obama is actually dragging Al Franken’s numbers down in the state and muses, “If McCain wins Minnesota, that puts a major dent in Obama’s presidential aspirations.”

Certainly, another 10 Electoral Votes — a swing of 20 — would be helpful.  The problem, however, is that Obama’s up 11.5 in the RealClearPolitics average for Minnesota, Obama has never trailed in the state since polling began in May, and the trend followed the national one away from McCain since mid-September.  Eight of the last ten polls in the average have Obama up by double digits, with the outliers showing leads of merely 8 and 5.

Further, SurveyUSA appears to be the most erratic poll in the sample by a longshot.  Going back to last December, McCain has had leads in precisely four Minnesota polls.  All of them are by … wait for it … SurveyUSA.

So, yeah, it’d be sweet if McCain could steal Minnesota.  But it’s statistically much more likely that he’ll win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  In which case, he won’t need Minnesota.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2008, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics, , , , , ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is a Security Studies professor at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Alex Knapp says:

    But it’s statistically much more likely that he’ll win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

    I really don’t know why people think that Pennsylvania, one of the most reliable Democratic states, where Obama has led by a long shot in almost every poll, is even considered a battleground state…

  2. Dantheman says:

    Alex,

    Because the McCain camp has continually hinted that they thinkit is far closer than the polls, and have spent so much time there. And their mau-mauing of the so called liberal media is working. This morning, the Philly NPR station mentioned the 4 point Obama lead in the Rasmussen poll for Thursday as evidence that PA is within the margin of error, but mentioned none of the other dozens of polls in the last week with larger margins (including the Rasmussen poll for Saturday with a 6 point Obama lead).

  3. DC Loser says:

    Go to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com to see all the polls. The 11/1 SurveyUSA poll has Obama up by 3. Bu the sample size is small, only 669 respondents, which makes the margin of error higher, probably +/- 5%. The 10/29 PPP poll with 1050 respondents with a lower margin or error (+/-3%)has Obama up 16, and the 10/30 Star Tribune poll with 933 respondents (+/-3%) has Obama up by 11. I don’t think McCain is going to win MN.

  4. Floyd says:

    Steal?
    I would say that is a harsh word, but since we had no, primary or convention on either side, and 31 states have legalized vote fraud, then I guess either side would be “stealing” the “election”,unless you want to call it a “coup”.

  5. Zelsdorf Ragshaft III says:

    Polls taken by Obama supporters looking for Obama supporters are bound to be accurate! Real Clear politics is not bias! Four years ago in the Capital of California, there were Kerry signs and stickers all over. This year, there are few Obama stickers or signs. Kerry did win the polling except the only poll that counted. They even tried cheating. Didn’t work. There are those who have been baffled by Obama’s bullsh#t, or blinded by his brilliance, but in reality, his empty message has been heard by America. Some bought the BS others noticed the smell and know what is going on. Early teachings tend to have a lifelong effect on people. Obama’s first mentor was the child molesting communist named Frank Marshall Davis. How many deep impressions on the young Obama we will never know, but one thing sure. He did make Obama a Marxist. Read his books.

  6. Triumph says:

    Listen, I am convinced that the polls are wrong.

    But, just in case, I hope that Bush has a contingency plan to insure that we aren’t thrown into the hands of the evildoers with an Obama “victory.”

  7. just me says:

    I really don’t see it happening. I can buy a surge, but my guess is that it is too little too late and the end result is still Obama victory in MN.

    I think McCain will be more likely to win Florida or possibly Ohio than PA or MN, but maybe PA is really closer than polls indicate, but I just am having a hard time believing PA is in play.

  8. Steve Verdon says:

    Win Minnasota…bwahahahahaha.

  9. anjin-san says:

    Yes, and Palin will be Lady Godiva riding upon a magic pony…

  10. Kevin Casey says:

    Real Clear politics is not bias! Four years ago in the Capital of California, there were Kerry signs and stickers all over. This year, there are few Obama stickers or signs. Kerry did win the polling except the only poll that counted.

    Actually, Kerry wasn’t faring too well in the final polls. And RCP quite accurately predicted a Bush win.

  11. Obama is the New Hitler says:

    Depends…
    do they have Black Panthers in Minnesota?

    And the previous poster is correct. RealClearPolitics is owned by Obama.