Democrats Need One More to Hold Senate

It boils down to NV or GA.

Various media outlets are calling the Arizona contest for US Senate for incumbent Mark Kelly.

This gives the Democrats 49 seats and in a position to need to hold either the Nevada seat currently held by Catherine Cortez Masto or the Georgia seat currently held by Rafael Warnock (which will not be decided until a run-off next month).

CCM currently trails challenger Adam Laxalt by 0.1% of the vote (about 800 votes). Analysts suggest that the vote pool left to be counter should favor CCM, meaning the Democrats may avoid the drama of Walker v. Warnock for control of the chamber.

The Democrats have thus far flipped one seat (the open PA seat).

FILED UNDER: 2022 Election, US Politics, , , , ,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. EddieInCA says:

    Jon Ralston, the biggest and most well known political reporter in Nevada, has stated unequivocally that based on what’s outstanding, Cortex-Masto will win. I’m hoping GA won’t matter, as tat will depress the GOP vote, and make it easier for Warnock to win.

  2. CSK says:

    Trump is extremely angry that he’s not getting “the praise and congratulations” (his very words) due him after the stellar record of winning his endorsees established in Tuesday’s midterms.

    I swear this is true.

  3. Kathy says:


    He has a point.

    After all, he spent four years destroying the country and its institutions, all to get a Democrat elected. And Biden didn’t even thank him once.

  4. James Joyner says:

    What’s weird is that it seemed obvious early Wednesday morning that Arizona was easily going to Kelly. It makes sense to be cautious, I guess, but it coming down to Nevada and Georgia has been my expectation since Election Night.

  5. CSK says:

    @James Joyner:
    I agree. Kelly had a 5.7% lead all along. This was no nail-biter.

  6. Michael Cain says:


    I agree. Kelly had a 5.7% lead all along. This was no nail-biter.

    Arizona used to have a reliable blue shift at the end because of the order they counted ballots. In 2020 that shift didn’t happen. The East Coast people who make the calls for the national media are probably being excessively cautious this year. As well as muttering, “Stupid western vote by mail states!” under their breath.

  7. charon says:

    @Michael Cain:

    2020 was an unusual election, and AZ had a big red shift in the late vote, this had the decision desks spooked there could be one again.

    Remember the Fox decision desk very early call of AZ in 2020 – they obviously were unprepared for a late red shift erasing most of Biden’s lead.

  8. Sleeping Dog says:


    Word from Nevada this morning is that Laxalt is planning to ask for a recount, which is his right. Recounts seldom change the result, unless the margin of victory is very small.

  9. CSK says:

    @Sleeping Dog:

    The last I checked, Laxalt had a whopping 85 votes over Cortez Masto.

  10. Jay L Gischer says:

    I believe the point is that in AZ, vote by mail does not necessarily skew Democratic. Lots of retirees of both parties use it. This is unusual, but the state of play in AZ (And probably in CA, and OR, too).

  11. charon says:

    @Jay L Gischer:

    Lots of retirees of both parties use it.

    Lots of everyone in AZ use it, the state is, in practice, a mostly vote-by-mail state.

  12. charon says:

    Lots of everyone in AZ use it, the state is, in practice, a mostly vote-by-mail state.

    Those drop box ballots are ordinary old mail ballots, the state recommends that is you have not mailed your ballot by Nov. 1 you should instead physically take it to a drop box.

  13. Moosebreath says:

    And now they have done so.