Gaetz’ Gambit
What's behind the sure-to-fail bid to oust his own party's Speaker?
Fox News (“House GOP members seek to expel Gaetz amid renewed threat to vacate House Speaker McCarthy“):
House GOP members are preparing a motion to expel Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., amid his renewed threat to pursue a motion to vacate House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
The House Republican members will seek to expel Gaetz if the ethics committee report comes back with findings of guilt, Fox News has learned. One member told Fox News the report is mostly written but does not know what it contains. Yet following threats to vacate McCarthy, the member said of Gaetz, “No one can stand him at this point. A smart guy without morals.”
It takes a two-thirds vote to expel. And Republicans are treading on thin ice with their majority. The House is down to 433 members. It’s unclear where things stand with federally indicted Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y. If you were to have members expelled, retire or die, the majority could be right on the edge for the GOP.
During an appearance on CNN Sunday morning, Gaetz said he planned “to file a motion to vacate against Speaker McCarthy this week.”
“I think we need to rip off the Band-Aid. I think we need to move on with new leadership that can be trustworthy. Look, the one thing everybody has in common is that nobody trusts Kevin McCarthy. He lied to Biden. He lied to House conservatives,” Gaetz told CNN “State of the Union” host Jake Tapper. “Kevin McCarthy’s goal was to make multiple contradictory promises to delay everything back up against shutdown politics and at the end of the day, blow past the spending guardrails he had agreed.”
In response to that motion to vacate, McCarthy said, “I’ll survive.”
“This is personal with Matt,” McCarthy said, according to ABC producer and reporter Ben Siegel. “Let’s get over it, let’s start governing.”
But on CNN, Gaetz insisted he was not pursuing McCarthy’s ouster over personal matters.
“This isn’t personal, Jake. This is about spending,” Gaetz said Sunday. “This is about the deal Kevin McCarthy made. If Kevin McCarthy didn’t want to keep the deal to return to pre-COVID spending, if he didn’t want to keep the deal to have single subject spending bills, not vote for government spending all up or down at once, then he shouldn’t have made that deal. So this is about keeping Kevin McCarthy to his word. It’s not about any personal animus.”
Unless there are Republican votes to elect a Democratic Speaker—and there aren’t—I simply can’t imagine why Democrats would go along with this gambit. Who is the candidate Gaetz supports that would get a single Democratic vote?
Sure, AOC and a handful of other gadflies might enjoy the chaos for a bit but there is simply no plausible outcome where McCarthy doesn’t survive. And, while at least 90 Republicans are presumably unhappy with McCarthy for brokering the deal with Democrats to keep the government open, who is it that could get every single Republican vote and a third of the Democrats?
It’s sheer idiocy.
Rather clearly, this isn’t driven by shrewd political calculation. Indeed, POLITICO’s Olivia Beavers is asking the same question many of us are: “What does Matt Gaetz really want?” Writing shortly before the surprise cross-party vote that kicked the government shutdown can down the road:
What is Matt Gaetz‘s endgame: spending cuts, a political boost, or revenge?
It’s the question reverberating on Capitol Hill after the simmering feud between the Florida conservative and Speaker Kevin McCarthy flared up again Thursday morning in a closed-door meeting, with one lawmaker telling Gaetz to “fuck off” for leveling unproven accusations against the speaker. Gaetz has threatened to force a vote on booting McCarthy for weeks, publicly called him “pathetic” and accused him of lying multiple times.
Hill Republicans, when granted anonymity to speak candidly, say they don’t believe Gaetz when he insists it “isn’t personal” (though rank-and-file GOP lawmakers are quick to add they don’t know what has set off the Florida Republican).
Some in the GOP chalk it up to Gaetz seeking a future foothold as a conservative TV pundit, others to a desire for name recognition ahead of his widely expected gubernatorial bid in 2026. Still others say he’s sincere in his demands for more spending cuts before voting to fund the government.
The speaker hasn’t publicly weighed in. But in private, McCarthy has questioned what he could have done to trigger this level of hostility from Gaetz, according to a longtime ally of the speaker. Other McCarthy allies have theorized that Gaetz’s fury dates back to a now-closed Justice Department inquiry into sex trafficking allegations, when some in the House GOP came just short of openly celebrating his potential political demise.
Gaetz said in a brief interview that he doesn’t fault McCarthy for anything related to that probe: “No, I think that was all handled fine.” And he denied he’s running for governor, saying in a statement to POLITICO: “I am singularly focused on my current job in Congress. I’m exactly where I’m supposed to be, doing exactly what I’m supposed to be doing. I am not making plans to run for governor or any other office.”
Still, calling Gaetz a thorn in McCarthy’s side would be an understatement. The Floridian has repeatedly threatened to call for a vote to strip the speaker’s gavel if he works with Democrats to avert a government shutdown. He’s the most vocal among the conservatives who have sworn to oppose any stopgap plan to keep the government’s lights on, and while he’s not in the House Freedom Caucus, he counts many of its most obstreperous members as frequent allies.
[…]
The Californian pointedly declined to criticize Gaetz during the federal sex trafficking probe that ensnared him. But in recent weeks, as their relationship curdled, McCarthy has occasionally hurled his own accusations back at Gaetz — while shrugging off the threats with “Matt is Matt.”
[…]
Their tense relationship began affecting the entire House GOP more than a year ago, when the Floridian vowed to nominate former President Donald Trump for speaker. That clear message of no confidence in McCarthy shortly thereafter translated into open resistance on the floor throughout January’s speakership election.
Gaetz never cast a ballot for McCarthy, remaining one of six conservatives who — only after 14 failed rounds — agreed to vote “present” in order to let the Californian claim the top gavel. Now, he insists that his repeated antagonizing of the speaker has everything to do with holding McCarthy to the promises he made during that standoff, including bringing all 12 individual spending bills to the House floor.
“It’s based on the terms of the January agreement. If Kevin comes into compliance with the January agreement, he doesn’t have any problems. If he continues to be out of compliance with the January agreement, he’s got problems,” Gaetz said, though he’s publicly acknowledged that some of the priorities he’s demanded from McCarthy would likely fail in floor votes.
Immediately after the tense Thursday meeting, Gaetz brushed off reporters’ questions on whether he was ready to force a vote to boot McCarthy from the speakership. He maintained that his “principal goal” is passing the individual spending bills the House GOP has struggled to clear this week.
Some members believe there’s more on Gaetz’s mind, however. The Florida conservative has already built significant name recognition as McCarthy’s foil, and Republicans see Gaetz as someone who likes to punch up for political gain — he’s rumored to be eyeing Florida’s governorship in 2026, when Gov. Ron DeSantis is termed out.
That means allying himself with other gadflies, more so than just a partnership with hardliners in the Freedom Caucus. Some Republicans noted Gaetz’s defense of former Rep. Katie Hill (D-Calif.) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), both progressives who have clashed with their own leadership, as a further sign he aligns himself with self-styled outsiders.
“I just really think that one person wants a lot of attention. It may not be all that personal. It is maybe made-up to be personal,” GOP Rep. Carlos Giménez said of his fellow Floridian, later clarifying that the attention-seeker he referenced was not McCarthy.
“I think [Gaetz] is just using that as a vehicle to run for governor, and he thinks that the one way to go lift his profile is becoming this rebel,” Giménez added, describing his motivations as “despicable” either way.
It’s simultaneously bizarre in any normal political world and plausibly a good strategy in the current Republican milieu. Gaetz has clearly elevated his profile and done so in a way that likely appeals to Florida GOP primary voters.
I suppose if Alabama voters believe that Tommy Tuberville is doing them proud, and Texans want to hold up Cruz as representing what is best about Texas, and Floridians overwhelmingly re-elected DeSantis to lead their state, then it’s not beyond the pale that Gaetz could get elected Governor.
McCarthy will survive and Gaetz will have exhausted his ability to influence his caucus. It’s not just the 18 R’s that represent districts that Biden won that want to find someway for the House to execute its constitutional responsibilities. There are any number of conservatives that realize that the continued dysfunction will lead to the R’s losing the House in 24 regardless of what happens in other races.
Liberals often point out that our progressive brethren often sacrifice the good while failing to achieve the perfect, well the nihilists amongst the R’s do the same thing.
@Sleeping Dog: I don;t know about liberals, but rational observers across spectrum can note that the activist wings on either Right or Left have a strong tendency to make the Perfect the enemy of the Good (to state the same in another way).
However one must say that while the Left-Left or progressives as your jargon likes now have that tendency, and while also noting I have little sympathy for their goals, their politics and actions at least have an internal coherence and logic. Wrong in my view, but at least internally coherent and having reason behind it (and indeed I will say ex-identity politics they have often put fingers on real issues to resolve).
The Gaetz Radicals in the GoP are incoherent, illogical and really seem nothing more than Carnival Barkers whose interest is utterly divorced from any rational political goal, merely being driven by short-term “get the Rubes in the tent to bilk them.” (or worse some may actually believe their own circus freak show acts are real).
A functional political party would expel Gaetz and put an end to the clown show that has been a national, and is now becoming an international, embarrassment. A shot across the bow of Gaetz’s fellow performance artists might nudge the House back into the job of governing.
This. It’s all kabuki so Gaetz can succeed DeSantis. I thought this was already the prevailing opinion.
In a perfect world Democrats would join in ousting McCarthy, and then a handful of moderate Republicans would join them in electing Jeffries as Speaker.
Alas, perfect doesn’t exist.
Here we can talk again about weak parties.
Gaetz’s base of support, like many in Congress these days, doesn’t rely on any party apparatus. He has a national base of small donors independent of the Republican party. He knows what to do to get them to donate and it’s stuff like this. It’s performative “fighting” that brings in the big bucks via small donors, it’s not legislating, and it’s not playing nice with the party he supposedly belongs to.
This is another example of the atomization of society and politics I mentioned in the other thread. The bizarre and destabilizing idea that partisanship is extremely important, but parties are not.
@Lounsbury:
American progressives are only “left-left” by local standards. In the UK they would be center-left. There are no longer any functional populations of socialists, communists, or other actual left-left flavors on this side of the pond.
@DrDaveT: Local standards are what counts, as that is what votes.
As I am on the other side of the Atlantic, am quite capable of comparatives, thanks. While you in the USA do like to say that, it rather in fact depends on what politic policy set one chooses. The USA is rather more heavy into identity politics and social identify policy in a quite radical fashion as compared to my metrics outre-mer, while of indeed if one privileges old school economic areas. Indeed the urban and urbane Bohemian Bourgeouisie Left, the Bobo Left rather heavily leans on that.
Regardless, for a given country’s politics, it is the internal spectrum, not what might be if you could be European, that really counts. Your internal spectrum, not UK, not Sweden nor France (for whatever value of undertanding you may have of those spectrum).
@Charley in Cleveland: Ah performance artists, that is a felicitious phrase. Carnival barker was not quite right.
Sure, but he’s unlikely to keep his rightie street cred (even if only in his own mind) by decrying people as “moderate liberals” now is he?
Why shouldn’t they? There is absolutely ZERO reason for Dems to support McCarthy. He’s shown himself to be completely untrustworthy, in every single which way. Worst still is that he has absolutely no control over the crazies, ZERO. McCarthy is an absolutely pathetic man who dreams that he has the shit to lead. He’s asleep dreaming.
There’s got to be one of those braindead “Problem Solvers” that they could up as marginally acceptable to Dems and leave it at that.
Or how about an agreement where McCarthy agrees to step down but chooses his successor and Dems agree to help expel Gaetz (lol, and nominally take the blame). Whoever DeSantis choses to install will be a moron, but can’t be worse.
Why are we shitting on AOC? That comes across as crass and tasteless. However, it does highlight how useless McCarthy is. I know the conventional wisdom is that AOC and the Squad are bomb throwing maniacs, but Pelosi kept them in line and more or less satisfied. There seems to be a lot of bashing of the Progressives here, but look, they took what they could get from Pelosi and then kept working to get better, but they hung in with leadership. Why are they expected to just shut up and fall in line, while the MAGA maniacs are given free reign to go nuts and everyone just shrugs and says “oh well, nothing to be done here.” To me this reeks of sexism. It seems to me that AOC and the progressives have done a decent job or being loyal to their ideals and their caucus.
@Lounsbury:
Ok, seriously, I’m not trying to be a jerk, but could you rephrase this a bit? It seems like there is a good and useful point here but I can’t get at it. Hell, blame it on my hang over if you want, but please clarify.
@Beth:
Also, this is another installment in “only Dems have agency”. Why are they expected to tie their arms behind their backs? The Republicans are THE SOURCE of the chaos. Its not going to solve the problem if Dems have to keep coming to the rescue only to get shit on. If Gaetz files his motion Dems should vote to vacate and let the Republicans twist. We’ve got 45 days for them to figure out a new speaker and maybe we’ll get lucky and 5 of them will quit.
@Beth:
I’m with AOC and Omar on this. McCarthy is an invertebrate, a liar and a coward.
@Michael Reynolds:
Right. In my opinion Boehner and Ryan are complete scumbag and I’d rather puke than sit down with either of them. I think they are fairly evil. That being said, I think they were, roughly, politically trustworthy and intelligent. You could make deals with them and not expect them to break it before you walked out the door. You can’t say that about McCarthy.
In an honorable world, McCarthy would be dismissed as speaker and then resign in disgrace. One would hope that something like that would focus Republican attention and help them tamp down the lunatics. That’s not going to happen though.
@Beth:
Because Dr. Joyner needs to have a little-bit of bothsiderism with his morning coffee, as a treat.
I never saw any incident where they were “kept in line” by Pelosi (or Jeffries now). They’ve been good Democrats, pulling from the left, but voting with the caucus the vast majority of the time, and always when needed. (It would be great if Manchin and Sinema in the Senate were as good of Democrats)
Why is sheer idiocy for the left to use the motion to vacate to force concessions from McCarthy, but was just politics for McCarthy to use the debt ceiling to force concessions from Biden?
@Stormy Dragon: Because in the dark night of his soul, Dr. Joyner is still a conservative and still prefers right-wing outcomes to “socialist” ones.
@Stormy Dragon: Here, JJoyner is calling Gaetz’s move sheer idiocy, not the idea that Democrats should get concessions for saving McCarty. I think he’d agree with Democrats bailing out McCarthy for a 50/50 committee splits, Ukraine aid, and clean border bill sans xenophobic cruelty. Or some other fair concessions.
I also think JJoyner had a low opinion of the right’s debt ceiling shenanigans.
Sorry James, but I’ve got to pile on with the reaction to your AOC comment. “Gadfly” is just a wild misreading of how she has behaved. She is significantly further left than most of the Dems, and she has used her influence skillfully in moving things her way, but she has never become a gadfly. She has never publicly attacked leadership and AFAIK always managed to get her and her like minded colleagues on board when it counted. She has never behaved like a Manchin or a Sinema much less a Bobert or Gaetz.
@just nutha:
I shouldn’t speak for James, but there is nothing “dark night” about it. James acknowledges he is a small “c” conservative, and always has. That’s one of the reasons I come here. (The other is to get a gander at all the cranky old and young people in permanent occupation of the comment section.)
Seems to me he is just following the Trump model. Say outrageous stuff to stir up the base. Claim that you are an outsider willing to fight against Washington insiders, including RINOs. Get on TV a lot and have lots of press coverage. All while not really accomplishing anything but you were very visible and said the things the base wanted you to say. Heck, he has even emulated Trump in the morals, or lack thereof, department.
Steve
Steve
It may be a win-win if Gaetz is expelled and Kevin deposed.
He’s sort of like the rich kid that nobody liked in Jr. High School – unloved & desperate for attention.
@MarkedMan: I still think say many don’t understand the harmonious factional relations among Democrats because our discourse overstated areas of disagreement from the get go. The unexpected election of Trump and its attendent extremist rightwing horrors caused Democratic electeds to realize they mostly all agree and to supresss internal Bernie Left vs Hillary Left bickering that was a gift to MAGA and Putin (and that could resurface if Democrats did something panicky and silly like force Biden-Harris out of the race).
If forced to spitball a breakdown, I’d say 60% of the time Democrats are in lockstep agreement. 30% they agree in principle but differ on process, rhetoric, prirority, tactics, speed, etc — sometimes sharply. And maybe 10%, they actually disagree.
That’s the reason why AOC and Omar came to see Pelosi as a beloved mentor, why Schumer embraced Cori Bush (furthest left of House Democrats), why Jayapal is a loyal Biden footsoldier. The progressive Dem vs mainstream Dem divide is big online, but in real life, they just don’t disagree all that much. As emphasized, in political systems with a true hard left, they’d almost all be considered gradients of doctrinaire liberal.
The actual gadflies are folks like Manchin and Sinema, who lean left but also often side with their rich conservative donors. Hence why Sinema ran away, while Manchin is flirting with an exit.
Well, Matt has gone and done it.
He keeps bringing up a secret deal with Biden. is that even a thing? Surely politicians can strike deals and keep parts confidential, but Matt is making it sound like one fine day many, many, manu billions of dollars will be given to Ukraine and no one will ever know a thing about it.
No doubt his base of deplorables will believe him. Will other House members in his side of the aisle?
Also, what if all Democrats absent themselves when/if the vote to depose Kevin gets carried out? If a majority of those present are needed, then they’ll force the GQP to shoot their own dog, or to shut the f**k up.
@Sleeping Dog: @Lounsbury:
Name one where the lefties made the the perfect the enemy of the good, where voting their conscience torpedoed a bill that improved the status quo. As far as I know, when their votes were needed to pass some must pass legislation, their’s were there.
@OzarkHillbilly: Oh my how thin skinned the partisan is…. aside from the fact that the statement of observation is a general one, not containing mention specific to voting and was not specific in mind in fact – a general observation, it’s entirely sterile to engage in No True Scotsman games (and waste of time really), given motivated reasoning will see that your belief will be what it is for partisan identity reasons regardless of any data.
Yes your side is good and pure and the side of light and reason, blameless in all things.
@Lounsbury: “Oh my how thin skinned the partisan is…”
In other words, you said something stupid while you were trying to look smart, you got called on it by multiple people and because you can’t stand the thought of admitting you were wrong you start playing victim. It’s a tedious game, and no amount of misused extra syllables can disguise that.
@Beth:
Because she had publicly stated that she would vote with Gaetz against McCarthy. I should probably have linked but kind of assumed that everyone had seen that news.
@Stormy Dragon: @just nutha: @DK: Yeah, I thought it was pretty clear that the “idiocy” was Gaetz’ gambit, not the Democrats behaving like normal politicians.
@MarkedMan: I see AOC as both genuinely motivated by policy aims and a Grade A attention-seeker.
@James Joyner:
Care to elaborate on that some because I don’t see it. She’s not pulling political stunts or showing up on all the cable shows or the weekend shows. Hell the only reason I ever see AOC is because she is one of a small group of women the right love to cry about.
In comparison to MTG, Boebert, Gaetz etc. Or hell Sinema even although she’s stepped back some on her attention seeking..
@Matt:
Calling her a grade A attention seeker is unfortunately a bad take. Let’s reapply that label after she has been videotaped at a kids play getting her tits squeezed and stroking her boy toys dick.
I think MTG has called for Democrats to be arrested or executed, and I will start to clutch my pearls when AOC or any member of the Squad’s rhetoric is just half as outlandish as the behavior of MTG, Boebert, and her pals in the GOP.
@inhumans99: Yet according to James AOC is the “grade a attention seeker”. It’s kind of crazy how effective fox news and the right wing have been at getting people to reflexively say stupid shit about AOC and others. Even people I know who are left leaning will parrot the same inane stupid talking points about AOC without ever being able to present any evidence or facts to back up their assertions. THe instinctual “I don’t like her” is amazing considering these people share the same political values, background (worked shitty jobs too), and beliefs with AOC.