McCain Surge?

Slate offers a ray of hope for Republicans: “Of 20 new statewide polls, 15 show a shift in McCain’s direction.”

Unfortunately, that movement is coming against a  pretty hard basis.  Their Electoral College map, derived from Pollster.com’s but represented in a more encouraging way for McCain supporters, looks like this:

It wouldn’t shock me at all if McCain took every single tossup state; they are, after all, states that Bush took in 2004.  If that happens, McCain adds 85 to his safe 129, bringing him to 214.  And, if he’s getting all the tossups, go ahead and throw in the 13 GOP leaning states to bring him to 247.   I’m not saying that’s going to happen — or even that it’s likely — but it’s not implausible.

That’s still 18 behind the 264 “safe Democratic” states.   The magic number is 270.   So, basically, McCain needs not only all the Republican-leaning states, all the toss-up states, but almost all of the Democrat-leaning states, too.

Give him Virginia’s 13, since that’s the most likely pickup culturally and historically.  That takes him to 260.  Close!   He needs only another 9 to tie and 10 to win!

Neither Colorado nor Nevada would do it, although both together would.  If he can close the 6.3 gap in Ohio, though, he’d get their 20 votes.  That takes him to 280!  A comfortable win.

So . . . for McCain to pull this off, all he needs to do is hold on to every state that’s leaning Republican, pick off tossups Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida but also pick up Democratic leaning Virginia and Ohio.  And do it in two days against a candidate with a 10-to-1 money advantage in an anti-Republican environment in which a dozen or so prominent Republicans have endorsed the other guy.

Hey, it could happen! After all, the Giants beat the Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Packers on the road and then beat the undefeated Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

I wouldn’t bet on it, though.

UPDATE:  Commenters point out that I misadded in the third paragraph, thus screwing up the math the rest of the way by 20 points in McCain’s favor.  So, it’s even more stark than the calculation above suggests.  McCain needs not only all the states above but either Pennsylvania or Colorado and Nevada.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2008, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. just me says:

    I do believe McCain is probably surging. The whole Joe the Plumber, “spread the wealth around” probably has influenced some people, and I also suspect most of the undecideds will swing McCain’s way..

    I just don’t think it is enough soon enough, and in the end we end up with a fairly close election, although I am willing to bet Obama still performs better in the electoral college this go around than Kerry or Gore did. I just don’t see McCain winning every toss up state, but it is possible, but what I don’t see him is winning all those “lean dem states” although he could pull one or two, I just don’t see him pulling them all out.

  2. Democrat-for-Mccain-Win says:

    Simple. Hold all Republican states & SNATCH Pennsylvania.. That will do it for McCain.. OBAMA can then gain experience under McCain’s presidency & try to be a VP under Hillary’s run in 2012..

  3. Ottovbvs says:

    Hope springs eternal in the human breast. After reading this and before commenting I took a walk over to Pollster and Nate Silver both of whom are dem but are fairly objective when it comes to the actual numbers, and looked at their analysis. The McCain “surge” seemed very mixed and even fairly modest where its occurred at all. There’s going to be some tightening maybe in McCain’s direction but some of the internals in the polls showing movement to him seem a bit screwy. For example Ras’s fall from a 7% to a 4% gap in PA is based entirely on a fall in the number of AA voting for Obama from 93% to 80%. Does that sound screwy, it does to me. My take for what it’s worth. An Obama win by about 6-8% in the popular vote which produces an electoral vote approaching 350. Imho he has CO, NM and NV in the bag; OH, VA and NC are likely pick ups; most of the other tossups will be tight; and forget PA. I can see why McCain is putting in effort there but his chances of an upset are negligible. Kerry won the state by only 2%, Gore won it by 4%, but given the current economic climate, Palin who is poison in Eastern PA, and despite the racist edge in rural areas where Murtha was not wrong, I still think Obama takes it by the high single digits. In financial terms Obama is all upside and McCain is all downside. In fact there is a bleak view that all the early voting, minority/youth turnout, Obama ground game is not baloney and Obame produces a blowout.

  4. Jeffrey W. Baker says:

    How can they have no data in Ohio and Virginia? These seem like important places and I’ve seen dozens of polls from these states.

  5. Jeffrey W. Baker says:

    Uh. My color-blindness kicking in again I guess. I just checked in an image editor and those are “lean dem” not “no data”. Whoops.

    Also agree with the above poster. Obama’s ground game is ridiculous. They have thousands of phone bankers in the safe states of New York and California, which allows them to concentrate on walking districts in battlegrounds like Ohio and Pennsylvania. California is exporting a lot of precinct walkers into Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. The whole operation is extremely well organized.

  6. Our Paul says:

    The Giants did not have Palin as a back-up quaterback.

  7. James says:

    While not totally discounting a huge, miraculous McCain-Palin comeback, I fail to see how McCain surging from 53-41 to 58-37 in Kansas — KANSAS! — would offer “a ray of hope” to you Repubs. Was there ever any doubt whatsoever that Kansas would go to McCain? Not, I think, in the real, rational world. Likewise, as a Dem, I am not getting giddy over the surge from 9 to 30 point Obama lead in Delaware.

    Was there something else about that little quip that gave comfort to you guys? What am I missing?

  8. Bithead says:

    “Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. “Obama’s lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama’s good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on.

    –John Zogby.

    Read that again. McCain outpolled Obama yesterday, 48% to 47%.

    Obama, meanwhile, is going back into states he supposedly had locked up. These are not the actions of someone who’s winning.

  9. anjin-san says:

    John Zogby

    ’nuff said 🙂

  10. brendanm98 says:

    Minor point: 214 + 13 = 227, not 247.

    The only state Obama really needs from the lean Dem column is Nevada, since Dems will control more states in the House. He’s probably more likely to win VA, CO, and OH before NV, though.

  11. dlp says:

    James,
    Your math is wrong.
    If McCain wins all lean rep, all toss ups and Ohio and Virginia he ends up at 260, not 280.

    129+13+85=227
    227+20+13=260

    He would have to win all toss ups plus VA, Ohio and PA.

    Even if he wins PA, Obama still only needs one state out of FL, OH, VA, NC or IN to win.

  12. Jim Henley says:

    Slate doesn’t even tell us which 20 states they are. Heck, it may not be 20 states – the wording would seem to allow that some states had multiple polls released. Actually, Slate doesn’t even tell us what “new” means. It’s just a useless article for understanding anything about the race. (James’s own analysis: not useless. Seems reasonably sharp.)

  13. Andrew says:

    Bithead,

    You are a prime example of people who get their news from the Drudge Report and Fox. (I know Drudge posted the one day of polling from Zogby).
    For your information Sludge only posts the polls that are most kind to McShame.
    Put what faint hope you have in that but the average of polls over at RCP has fluctuated at an Obama lead of between 5.9% and 8.0%. Right now it is at 6.5%. There has been no significant movement other than the normal fluctuations in individual polls. Also I have been phone banking for the Obama campaign and it is incredible how many Obama supporters have already voted. BO will be going into election day with a giant lead. Your best hope is the dodgy voting machines because you won’t win the vote.

  14. Andrew says:

    Yes, I’m a Democrat, and yes, I’m crossing my fingers for an Obama win, but–at the risk of jinxing it–I think it’s going to be close. I think it’s going to be 2000 close.

    Here’s why:

    1. I can’t help but feel that at this point, Obama should be a clear front runner, but he’s not. He’s getting hammered on three fronts: the “redistribution” of wealth (aka “Joe the Plumber”), Palin excites a certain segment of the Republican faithful who are going to vote and maybe wasn’t going to vote before, and most damning, this whole “Obama’s auntie” thing that hit the news this morning. If that story gets traction, then Obama may lose 3-5 points in crucial states, just enough to bring him under 270. (My question isn’t why she’s in the country “illegally” but why she’s living in the projects when her nephew is fairly well-to-do. If nothing else, it’s an embarrassment.)

    2. The toss-up states seem to be all over the place, one day +2 for Obama, the next day +6, the day after razor-thin for Obama. And even when they’re leaning Obama, they’re within (or almost within) that damned margin of error, which I just don’t feel good about. I have a bad feeling that toss-up states could break for McCain when the time comes, their voters going with the “safe” choice.

    3. It doesn’t matter how voters “feel” about Obama or McCain. (“Who seems more presidential?” “Who ran a more negative campaign?” etc.) We are facing a 50-50 electorate, and each side is becoming more entrenched as time goes on.

    Here’s what I did: (Click on my name to see my Real Clear Politics electoral college map guesses)

    1. I put all solid or leaning-McCain states in McCain’s column. Do I think that’s how it’s going to go? No. But I did it for the sake of argument. COULD they all go McCain? It’s not out of the realm of possibility.

    2. I put Montana and North Dakota in McCain’s column, because, c’mon, I just don’t see them showing up in blue on Election Night. I gave McCain his home state. (Trending toward Obama or not, do any of us realistically see McCain losing his home state in this election?) I put Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Georgia in McCain’s column. These are George W. Bush states, and nothing I’ve seen leads me to believe they’ll vote differently from 2004.

    3. I made great, big gifts of Ohio and Florida (!) to McCain because, in the case of Ohio, I see “Joe the Plumber” making headway for McCain, despite Obama’s 6-point lead there. I think it’s down to the fact that McCain made a celebrity out of one of theirs. As for Florida, hell, why not?

    Believe me or don’t, but I didn’t look at the electoral college count as I did this. I did it with just what my gut told me, and I didn’t want to “wish fulfill” an Obama win.

    So here’s what needs to happen in my scenario:

    1. Obama has to take Virginia. I think it’s possible, and as a writer in my local alternative weekly wrote, if Obama takes Virginia early in the evening, it’s probably going to be a good night for the Democrats. I’ll go farther out on a limb and say that if Obama wins Virginia, he wins it all.

    2. Obama has to take Colorado and New Mexico. I see the West as a bastion of blue votes, and I think Colorado (> +6 Obama) and New Mexico (> +7 Obama) will do the right thing and deliver for Obama.

    By 9 or 10 PM EST Tuesday night, we’re either going to hear, “Congratulations…President Obama…” or we’re going to hear Tom Brokaw tell us that all eyes are on…Nevada.

    With Nevada in Obama’s column under my scenario, Obama reaches 270 and EXACTLY 270. Likely? Maybe, maybe not. Possible? Sure, anything’s possible, especially in this election.

    I’m hoping I’m wrong about how close it’s going to be. Maybe I’m just hoping for the best but expecting the worst. After 2000 and 2004, I’ve learned not to hold my breath and learned not to get my hopes up too much. But with this election, I can’t help it. There’s too much at stake to let the Republicans back in power.

    Maybe come Election Night, it will landslide for Obama and electoral college votes will come raining down on him from the sky. Maybe he’ll cross 300 electoral college votes easily, like some have predicted. God willing, God knows.

  15. Andrew says:

    Yes, I’m a Democrat, and yes, I’m crossing my fingers for an Obama win, but–at the risk of jinxing it–I think it’s going to be close. I think it’s going to be 2000 close.

    Here’s why:

    1. I can’t help but feel that at this point, Obama should be a clear front runner, but he’s not. He’s getting hammered on three fronts: the “redistribution” of wealth (aka “Joe the Plumber”), Palin excites a certain segment of the Republican faithful who are going to vote and maybe wasn’t going to vote before, and most damning, this whole “Obama’s auntie” thing that hit the news this morning. If that story gets traction, then Obama may lose 3-5 points in crucial states, just enough to bring him under 270. (My question isn’t why she’s in the country “illegally” but why she’s living in the projects when her nephew is fairly well-to-do. If nothing else, it’s an embarrassment.)

    2. The toss-up states seem to be all over the place, one day +2 for Obama, the next day +6, the day after razor-thin for Obama. And even when they’re leaning Obama, they’re within (or almost within) that damned margin of error, which I just don’t feel good about. I have a bad feeling that toss-up states could break for McCain when the time comes, their voters going with the “safe” choice.

    3. It doesn’t matter how voters “feel” about Obama or McCain. (“Who seems more presidential?” “Who ran a more negative campaign?” etc.) We are facing a 50-50 electorate, and each side is becoming more entrenched as time goes on.

    Here’s what I did:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=1&save=3-3-3-3-1-2-1-1-1-3-3-1-3-1-3-1-3-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-3-3-3-3-2-1-1-2-1-3-3-3-3-1-3-1-3-3-3-3-3-1-2-1-3-1-3

    1. I put all solid or leaning-McCain states in McCain’s column. Do I think that’s how it’s going to go? No. But I did it for the sake of argument. COULD they all go McCain? It’s not out of the realm of possibility.

    2. I put Montana and North Dakota in McCain’s column, because, c’mon, I just don’t see them showing up in blue on Election Night. I gave McCain his home state. (Trending toward Obama or not, do any of us realistically see McCain losing his home state in this election?) I put Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Georgia in McCain’s column. These are George W. Bush states, and nothing I’ve seen leads me to believe they’ll vote differently from 2004.

    3. I made great, big gifts of Ohio and Florida (!) to McCain because, in the case of Ohio, I see “Joe the Plumber” making headway for McCain, despite Obama’s 6-point lead there. I think it’s down to the fact that McCain made a celebrity out of one of theirs. As for Florida, hell, why not?

    4. I put Minnesota in for Obama. The state that elected Jesse “The Body” Ventura governor won’t be afraid to vote for an African-American for President. I put Iowa in for Obama, because, hey, as far as I can tell, Iowa loves Obama.

    Believe me or don’t, but I didn’t look at the electoral college count as I did this. I did it with just what my gut told me, and I didn’t want to “wish fulfill” an Obama win.

    So here’s what needs to happen in my scenario:

    1. Obama has to take Virginia. I think it’s possible, and as a writer in my local alternative weekly wrote, if Obama takes Virginia early in the evening, it’s probably going to be a good night for the Democrats. I’ll go farther out on a limb and say that if Obama wins Virginia, he wins it all.

    2. Obama has to take Colorado and New Mexico. I see the West as a bastion of blue votes, and I think Colorado (> +6 Obama) and New Mexico (> +7 Obama) will do the right thing and deliver for Obama.

    By 9 or 10 PM EST Tuesday night, we’re either going to hear, “Congratulations…President Obama…” or we’re going to hear Tom Brokaw tell us that all eyes are on…Nevada.

    With Nevada in Obama’s column under my scenario, Obama reaches 270 and EXACTLY 270. Likely? Maybe, maybe not. Possible? Sure, anything’s possible, especially in this election.

    I’m hoping I’m wrong about how close it’s going to be. Maybe I’m just hoping for the best but expecting the worst. After 2000 and 2004, I’ve learned not to hold my breath and learned not to get my hopes up too much. But with this election, I can’t help it. There’s too much at stake to let the Republicans back in power.

    Maybe come Election Night, it will landslide for Obama and electoral college votes will come raining down on him from the sky. Maybe he’ll cross 300 electoral college votes easily, like some have predicted. God willing, God knows

  16. Andrew says:

    Whoops.

    My RCP map didn’t turn out.

    Anyway, my predictions gave 270 to Obama and 268 to McCain.

    Sorry for the triple posting.

    Have a Happy Election Night.

  17. There’s a good reason right there that I’ve believed this years polls have been based on bad assumptions. Georgia is NOT a tossup. I’ve lived here my whole life, and traveled all of it, corner to corner and side to side. While Georgia has broken for Democrats that ran as moderates (Carter, Clinton in 96), it’s a red state. In fact, redder since 96, as it has continued to grow.
    Obama will take precincts around Atlanta, but he doesn’t have a prayer with the blue collar Democrats of this state. Just ask yourself if you think Zell Miller would vote for Obama, and you’ll have your answer.
    My guess is that based on the bogus polling, McCain gets all the red, all the pink, all of the purples, and maybe a blue or two. Which ones will make the difference if he wins. (FYI, Pennsylvania is in no way a “safe” blue. If McCain took that one, he gets a heckuva lotta leeway on the traditional red/ blue map.)

    Jared A. Chambers
    myownterms.com

  18. anjin-san says:

    Jared,

    I have been keeping pretty close track, who said Georgia is a tossup state? Probably no one. Just that Obama is running pretty well there, as he is in Arizona, and that this is a bit of a surprise. Your entire argument is based on a false premise.

    The numbers show that the race is, as it has been for a while now, static, that is to say with Obama’s lead remaining a relative constant.

    The national polls are irrelevant in any case. The election is about swing states and battleground states. Right now it is being fought entirely on states that Bush won in 2004. What does that tell you?

  19. Floyd says:

    I just heard Obama promise “fundamental change in America”.
    Does this guy[Smiley] or his advisers even have access to a dictionary??
    For CRYING OUT LOUD, this after saying last week that….
    “The Constitution reflected the enormous blind spot in this culture that carries on to this day. The framers had that same blind spot … the fundamental flaw of this country.”
    Referring specifically to the lack of Marxist redistribution.

    Now he wants to discard the Constitution itself, not just the usual targets in the Bill of Rights!

    Go ahead and start with the condescending remarks and denials, but the Democrat party has capitulated to the Marxist/Stalinist minority and they don’t even have the backbone to admit it, let alone resist.

  20. anjin-san says:

    Comrad Floyd,

    Now that you have caught on to our secret plan, I suggest you consider the fact that the mass arrests are right around the corner. Silence would be a wise course for you.

  21. Zelsdorf Ragshaft III says:

    Those of you hoping for an Obama win. Those who really love this country and do not wonder what he means when he said he planned to make some fundamental changes. What do you think fundamental changes means? Liberty to socialism? Do not claim you were not warned. Obama is a fraud. Anjin, I am still waiting for you to list Obama’s accomplishments. How about authored legislation. What qualifies this man to be President of the United States. His color?

  22. Jim Henley says:

    Loose “margin of error” talk bugs me. Look, if “margin of error” meant what people think it does, then over the course of a bunch of polls “within the margin of error,” you should see McCain winning some of them. But you don’t. The polls that are within 2-4 points are always in Obama’s favor. Whatever the hell that is, it’s not “a statistical tie.”

    The simple fact is that, in the national polls, McCain led for mere days out of the entire two-party campaign, during his brief post-convention bounce. Contrary to myth, he had already lost all of that lead by the Big Collapse on September 15. The Big Collapse certainly helped Obama, but the race has always tilted in his favor, except for about a week.

  23. Zelsdorf Ragshaft III says:

    Anjin, have someone read Animal Farm to you. It is an old book. It may be difficult for you to understand what is written in that book. If you believe redistribution of wealth is a good idea and you believe “the One” thinks the same way. I have some news for you. He wants to redistribute your wealth not his. He has millions, yet he lets some of his relatives live in squalor. He will not help them, but he will make sure you do.

  24. G.A.Phillips says:

    Now that you have caught on to our secret plan, I suggest you consider the fact that the mass arrests are right around the corner. Silence would be a wise course for you.

    LOL!!! Come arrest me first gimprads.

    All of these precognitive polls are irrelevant in any case, unless you engage in a quarterly tent show where you take the donkeys money shot for the thrill of the hype alone or for the lingering illusion of what you thought was going to be.

  25. anjin-san says:

    III

    I have a first edition of Animal Farm. Atlas Shrugged as well. The point of education is to expose yourself to a wide spectrum of ideas, then do some actual thinking and form your own world view.

    If I had a closed mind and a fixed ideology, WTF would I be doing hanging out here? I would just hang out a Kos.

    The really funny thing is Obama’s remarks about “redistributive change” were related to political power, and most of todays dumbed-down right can’t even figure that out.

  26. G.A.Phillips says:

    I have a first edition of Animal Farm. Atlas Shrugged as well. The point of education is to expose yourself to a wide spectrum of ideas, then do some actual thinking and form your own world view.

    great green/blue presimian gestating hell, you got me actually interested in not making fun of one of your statements my friend, please tell me what you read, learned, experienced and what world view you came up with, please??????

  27. Eric says:

    Those of you hoping for an Obama win. Those who really love this country and do not wonder what he means when he said he planned to make some fundamental changes. What do you think fundamental changes means? Liberty to socialism? Do not claim you were not warned. Obama is a fraud. Anjin, I am still waiting for you to list Obama’s accomplishments. How about authored legislation. What qualifies this man to be President of the United States. His color?

    Anjin, please note Zelsdorf’s name in our little book and begin the wiretapping. As soon as Obama wins, please have him arrested–any pretense will do–and taken immediately to the reeducation camps. Also, we need to assume G.A. will not go willingly, so we will need to take him straight to the gulag, where he may spend the rest of his days in forced labor so that the lazy, indolent, and shiftless may live comfortably for free off his labor.

  28. Anjin,

    Who said GA is a tossup??? Look at the map above regarding this article…. Shows tossup. RCP’s electoral map also currently shows GA as a tossup. As a resident and follower of events and history, I am saying polling that leads GA to be shown as a tossup is polling based on bad assumptions. Are you ignorant, or are you another seminar poster who got your marching orders to post comments to make Obama appear unassailable?

    Jared A. Chambers

  29. Bithead says:

    You are a prime example of people who get their news from the Drudge Report and Fox. (I know Drudge posted the one day of polling from Zogby).

    Actually, I got it from a Zogby feed. But don’t let mere fact get in the wya of a good rant. Pray, proceed.

    Put what faint hope you have in that but the average of polls over at RCP has fluctuated at an Obama lead of between 5.9% and 8.0%. Right now it is at 6.5%. There has been no significant movement other than the normal fluctuations in individual polls.

    That assumes you’re being told the truth. Look verily closely, at this very blog and you may notice that there’s some serious question on that very point.

    BO will be going into election day with a giant lead.

    Check back with me on that one.

  30. anjin-san says:

    Jared…

    I am not all that interested in what Slate has to say. So that leave you with RCP out of how many people who are tracking polling? So how significant is that in the big picture? Not very. Are you ignorant? You are basing your argument on cherry picking, which is pretty lame. Guess you enjoy jerking off.

    If you want an accurate picture of what is going on, check out the Cook Political Report’s electoral map:

    http://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential

  31. anjin-san says:

    Oh look, Cook has GA as a tossup too. That can’t be good for the GOP.

    Its got to hurt to watch Bush give back all the gains a real President like Ronald Reagan made for the GOP. How is McCain doing in AZ? Think he can hold on to his own state?

  32. Eric says:

    It’s over already with early polling. I guess McCain supporters can always dream, but I mean come on, all credible polls are showing Obama at verge of a landslide. Yeah of course some desperate McCain leaning pollster will try to botch the numbers so it appears he’s got a surge going. But look at any independent poll and you’ll see Obama has had consistent numbers over 50% for the past month. Obama’s going to win so get over it and regroup for next time.

  33. anjin-san says:

    Comrad Eric.

    I just watched Hannity. The truth is alarming. McCain is winning. We have been living in the village of Comrad Potemkin .

  34. Jay Reese says:

    In the Illinois state Senate, Obama sponsored successful efforts to:
    • Expand children’s health care.
    • Create a plan to provide equal health care access for all Illinois residents.
    • Create a “Hospital Report Card” system.
    • Enact worker’s rights laws that protected whistleblowers, domestic violence victims, equal pay for women, and overtime pay.
    His most public accomplishment was a bill requiring police to videotape interrogations and confessions in potential death penalty cases to prevent abuses of suspects that could later lead to convictions being overturned. Obama was willing to listen to Republicans and police organizations and negotiate compromises to get the law passed. That helped him develop a reputation as a pragmatist able to work with various sides of an issue.

    Obama bills introduced in the U.S. Senate that became law:
    * Ethics reform. Obama was the Senate’s point person on ethics reform, and sponsored or co-sponsored the bills that made up what the Washington Post called “the strongest ethics legislation to emerge from Congress yet.”
    * A bill to help the public keep track of how the federal government is spending our tax dollars. It created a searchable database of recipients of federal grants and contracts.
    * The Lugar-Obama initiative to strengthen the Nunn-Lugar framework for securing loose nuclear weapons, and to extend it to securing and destroying stockpiles of conventional arms. (For instance, shoulder-fired missiles that could be used against passenger airlines, fired at our forces, or used to make any number of ongoing conflicts more deadly.)
    * Various bills concerning the response to Hurricane Katrina, including an amendment putting strict limits on the use of no-bid contracts after disasters, requiring planning for the evacuation of people with special needs and senior citizens, creating a National Emergency Family Locator System, etc.

  35. G.A.Phillips says:

    That helped him develop a reputation as a pragmatist able to work with various sides of an issue.

    lol, a fancy word for Donkey poop artist.

  36. G.A.Phillips says:

    Obama’s going to win so get over it and regroup for next time.

    don’t count your monkeys before they hatch gimprad.

    Yeah of course some desperate McCain leaning pollster will try to botch the numbers so it appears he’s got a surge going.

    And GOOD GOD can you liberals ever do anything besides take what your doing , flip it around and say it’s what your opponents doing or also doing , what the poop dude, what the poop?

  37. Oh lookie! Anjin can throw insults! Biting political analysis!

    Obama MAY win Tuesday. Emphasize MAY. However, I can’t take anyone seriously who is talking about a “landslide.” It’s going to be a close election, either way. Anyone throwing around the idea of a landslide or other absolutes for Tuesday are kidding themselves, or they are simply shilling to depress and supress turnout.

  38. glasnost says:

    I just hope that Bithead is around to post on the “Election Night results” thread. It’s very unlikely that McCain even makes it to 200 EVs. It’s going to be a blowout in the +100 to +150 range. Bet on it.

    Those “tossup” states that have shown Obama leads all month? They’re still showing Obama leads. They’re not all going to be wrong at the same time without a darn good reason that has so far failed to show itself.

  39. G.A.Phillips says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GC3O_2IQV4

    A Little sumtin sumtin by the greatest band in the universe,for those of you who have not made “the mistake” already and vote Tuesday.

  40. Ardent Avow says:

    I have heard all the suggestions that Barack Obama is a marxist, a socialist…..interesting.

    Two days before america votes, and too late for anything to matter – I can proudly say that I hope Barack Obama IS inspired and informed by Karl Marx. Marx has been much maligned in North America, humiliated, misrepresented and deliberately misconstrued.

    Up until this point, those of us who revere Marx, have had to chose how we fight the noblest of fights – to overtly represent what Marx REALLY said, and the ideas he floated, or to sit silently and float marxist idea’s through allegory (the original preface to Animal farm was an ode to marxist ideas – a letter exists to prove it). We are mindful of the extreme consequences to both career and academic legitimacy, associated with publicly acknowledging Marx.

    “WE” marxists (I think Barack is one of us) sit and patiently wait, we wait for election night – come the tolling of the final bell though….

    I can assure you ‘Joe the Plumber’ – you will know us 😉

  41. Floyd says:

    “”I guess McCain supporters can always dream,””
    “””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
    At least until BO’S thought police break down their doors!

    AR DENT;
    Marxists are by nature and creed averse to producing anything. They can only exist by stealing from those who do.
    Liberty and Marxism can not coexist.
    BO is wrong, the founding fathers had it right!
    Our Constitution is not blind trash as Obama claims.

  42. Bithead says:

    I just hope that Bithead is around to post on the “Election Night results” thread. It’s very unlikely that McCain even makes it to 200 EVs.

    Heh. Personally, I’m waiting for the reports of rioting in Grant park.

  43. Floyd says:

    “the original preface to Animal farm was an ode to marxist ideas”
    “”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””

    The original idea of “All in the Family” was to expose Carrol O’Connor’s character as a stupid conservative bigot.
    The viewers saw him as the show’s hero in spite of Norman and Carrol’s efforts to the contrary.

    ##################################################
    “” We are mindful of the extreme consequences to both career and academic legitimacy, associated with publicly acknowledging Marx””
    “”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””

    To quote “Larry the Cable Guy”….
    “Now I don’t care what you say.. That there’s FUNNY!” [lol]

  44. Bithead says:

    I have a first edition of Animal Farm. Atlas Shrugged as well.

    Too bad you never understood them.

  45. Ardent Avow says:

    Belated reply I know – but i have been watching ‘the’ victory.

    Marx ‘the man’ spent 14 hours a day researching and working on his contribution to humanity. As a newspaper editor he produced countless works. You seem to telegraph hard work and production as being solely the realm of ‘free market capitalist, right whingers’ – no one could question Marx’s work ethic.

    I wonder if you have ever read Marx – I suspect not, to frightened you might ‘like’ what he has to say and ‘catch something’. Marx never spoke of communism as an alternative to communism – rather it’s evolutionary fulfillment within the capitalist epoch. You right whingers don’t seem to be able to grasp that concept – communism isn’t the enemy of capitalism – but rather it’s fulfillment – don’t be scared of it – embrace it. regardless, Marx says it is inevitable – the natural conditions will determine this. It is happening now – public funding of private institutions, state protection and propping of the stock market. Keep fighting the cold war all you like – wont change the momentum.

    Marx was the ultimate humanist – he wanted to free workers and the underclass from elite bondage and control – to suggest their is some form of disharmony between the concept of liberty and Marx’s ideas (again you use the phrase ‘Marxists’ as ‘Christian is used to describe followers of Christ – maka no senso) – but the idea that disharmony exists is really, rather fanciful.

    Anyone who espouses the ideas of Marx is ultimately about freedom and liberty. Right whinger conservative attempts to stop upward socio economic mobility is a despicable and grotesque attempt to deprive the most of their rights to ensure the luxury of the few.

    Obama put this question to the referendum – joe the plumber became the embodiment of the argument – and the people have spoken, elite tyranny has been exposed, and voted out, the wind is at our backs, and history will prove a great man to be absolutely right. So like a mad man arguing with the rain, as it thunders on his hot little head – sweet dreams right whinger conservative swill – the battle has turned, and your days of oppression are over 🙂

    P.s – look in to the animal farm comment i made, you will see I’m right, no matter how uncomfortable it makes you feel 🙂