My Final EC Prediction

I say: Clinton 323 and Trump 215.

After a bit of a roller coaster in the polls and news cycle, I predict a fairly large EC victory for Clinton as follows:

 


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Mostly I assume that three of the states that have been the most volatile in the 538 model (Fl, NC, and NV), and that have also been toss-ups in other models, will go Clinton. At a minimum I think that a combination of the Latino vote and almost certainly superior GOTV efforts by the Clinton campaign will make the difference in those states. If we take the solid Blue states and add those three, Clinton wins over 300 EVs.

This assume that Ohio, which is also close in the polls, goes Trump, but one might think that the GOTV efforts might push Clinton over the edge there as well.

A less likely outcome is Ohio goes Clinton and Trump loses Utah, taking the EV count to 341 to 191, which would be symbolically significant (300s v. 100s). We shall see.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2016, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Loviatar says:

    Clinton: 341

    Trump: 191

    Mormon Guy: 6

  2. michael reynolds says:

    Just to be contrary I’ll say 322 – the Aroostook County Maine vote being the difference.

  3. Neil Hudelson says:

    I have the same map as yours except Utah–I normally wouldn’t give McMullin a chance, but this is 2016 so I have to bet on the most unlikely outcome.

  4. Kylopod says:

    @Neil Hudelson: Now there’s a thought–maybe this whole election was the result of somebody setting off the Improbability Generator.

  5. EddieInCA says:

    368 – Clinton. Going with anecdotal evidence to give her Georgia and Arizona.

    170 – Trump

  6. Slugger says:

    Whatever the result, I intend to accept it. I will give the new POTUS a fair shot to establish a successful watch of the helm.

  7. Vendrell says:

    Clinton – 322

    Trump – 216

    I think she drops the 1 Maine EV.

    I’m a bit torn on Arizona; polls understating the Latino vote could possibly put her over the top there. GA & OH are also still not completely out of reach, but I’m not too hopeful.

    The final NYT/Sienna poll of NC shows essentially a tied race. Really hoping that superior GOTV operations put Clinton, Ross, & Cooper over the top.

  8. Hal_10000 says:

    If reports of big Latino turnout in Florida are true and such turnout is sustained, Florida could be called early. This thing could be over by 10.

    If not, we could be in for a long night. My nightmare is that Clinton wins 270 and an unfaithful elector throws it to the House.

  9. Mikey says:

    @Hal_10000: I’m pretty sure nobody’s ever gonna call Florida early again…

  10. C. Clavin says:

    Clinton…312 and wakes up Wednesday as Mrs. President (elect).
    Trump….226 and wakes up Wednesday a broken, bitter, man who has lost control of his faculty’s.

    BTW…Trump seems to think the FBI couldn’t have possibly checked all the Weiner e-mails already.
    He’s just not a very smart man.
    Do we really want someone who suffers from the Dunning-Kruger Effect as President?

  11. michael reynolds says:

    @C. Clavin:

    seems to think

    Yes, Trump does seem to think sometimes.

  12. Hal_10000 says:

    @Mikey:

    LOL. Good point.

  13. Jen says:

    This is pretty much my guesstimate map too, although I do drop the one Maine vote. I’m nervous about NC, and am really wondering about AZ. I don’t know if Clinton’s campaign decision to spend time there is better internal polling or a head fake.

  14. Pch101 says:

    Predicting this one is perilous, but I’ll go with your map except for North Carolina and the one vote in Maine. So that’s 307 for Clinton, which is not quite the landslide that I had initially expected.

    I’ll also go out on a limb and predict that Clinton will be a one-term president, with Kaine being groomed for 2020.

  15. al-Ameda says:

    I participated in a 538 office pool 3 weeks ago and I have it :
    Clinton 319 – 219 Trump

  16. Stonetools says:

    My map is the same as Steven’s , except I think Clintons GOTV pulls her over the finish line in Ohio. I think GOTV will be worth 3 percentage points.
    I see the Democrats winning back the Senate.
    Hispanic turnout has been wave status. I think Asian turnout was also strong.
    Popular vote will be :
    Clinton 51
    Trump 43
    Johnson 4
    Others 2.

  17. @Pch101:

    I’ll also go out on a limb and predict that Clinton will be a one-term president

    Odds are good she is a one-termer, but the question will be whether she chooses not to run or not. That is: will she be a one-termer because she chooses to be or because the voters so choose.

  18. Kylopod says:

    I’m not always a fan of George Will’s penchant for election trivia, but a couple weeks ago he mentioned a factoid which I found rather interesting: if Hillary wins it’ll be the first time since the early days of the Republic that a single party won the popular vote 6 out of 7 times in a row.

  19. DrDaveT says:

    @Kylopod:

    if Hillary wins it’ll be the first time since the early days of the Republic that a single party won the popular vote 6 out of 7 times in a row

    Dear GOP: this is what criminal justice professionals refer to as a ‘clue’…

  20. Kylopod says:

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    Odds are good she is a one-termer

    It’s possible, but I’m not convinced of it. First of all, after what happened this year it’s very up in the air whether the GOP gets its sh!t together by the next cycle. I’m not just talking about the matter of nominating a competent candidate, but also the question of whether the party will go on another suicidal trek of impeachment against the new President Clinton.

    Second, this pseudo-“rule” we’re always hearing that it’s massively difficult for a party to win more than three straight terms is not as well-grounded as a lot of pundits think.

  21. bookdragon says:

    @Kylopod: I think it has less to do with the “rule” than with the fact she’ll be nearing 74 and the presidency seems to age people far beyond simple passage of time.

    That said, my mom is 74, and despite battling breast cancer (again) is still sharp as a tack and still traveling the world. So you never know.

  22. Pch101 says:

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    I suspect that Kaine was selected as part of a broader strategy for the Dems to take back parts of the South, and that it would be more effective if he started that sooner than later. So unless Clinton is overwhelmingly popular in 2019, she would step aside for the sake of the party as well as her legacy. (I doubt that she would want to end her political career with a 2020 defeat.) We’ll see how it goes.

  23. Stonetools says:

    I would like to think that Kaine is part of a Democratic succession plan where Hillary steps down in 2020 in favor of Kaine, but that seems a little bit like long term strategic planning and the Democrsts tend not to do that kind of thing. It would be nice if the Democrats moved in that direction.

  24. SKI says:

    @Kylopod:

    if Hillary wins it’ll be the first time since the early days of the Republic that a single party won the popular vote 6 out of 7 times in a row.

    I’m pretty sure that is going to be true regardless of whether or not she wins. Trump’s path to an EC win is really narrow, his path to a popular vote win is far, far more unlikely. If HRC doesn’t win the popular vote, we should just stop polling.

  25. An Interested Party says:

    Odds are good she is a one-termer…

    Well, odds were that a Democrat wouldn’t win this year, and yet, here we are…of course a lot will depend on who the Republicans pick in 2020, but with a potential GOP civil war brewing, as well as a list of hard right candidates in 2020, their chances don’t look all that great…

  26. dxq says:

    I would say the odds are higher she’s a two-termer. Republicans are 90% white, and in 2020 the US electorate will be about 1.6% less white.

    Maybe this election will make the GOP wake up to all their racist bullshit, and they’ll change, and that will make 2020 less predictable. But if it stays a party of JKBs, she’ll win 2020 easily.

  27. dxq says:

    I don’t think you learn much by extrapolating from the elections of Martin van Buren or James Polk or some other old shit when here in 2016 it’s a dumb white racist party in a country that’s becoming much less white and racist year by year.

  28. Kari Q says:

    @Jen:

    am really wondering about AZ. I don’t know if Clinton’s campaign decision to spend time there is better internal polling or a head fake.

    I understand your question, but I have to go with internal polling because Trump’s campaign planning never seemed to show the slightest bit of reason or logic.

    My prediction is the same as Steven’s.

  29. dxq says:

    NC GOP just put out a press release celebrating that they reduced African American early voting by over 8%.

    Yeah, Hillary’s got 2020 in the bag.

  30. Jen says:

    @dxq: I saw that earlier. Jaw-dropping that they think that is a plus of any sort (yes, they are spinning it as “Obama’s turnout is not showing up for Hillary) but everyone who has paid attention knows what is going on with that. Unbelievable.

  31. Sleeping Dog says:

    Wall St voted today with the markets up ~325 points, after being down all last week after the re-emergence of email-gate. Big money figures Clinton is a lock. LA times has Clinton at 353 EV and Sabato has her at 322.

    She could be a one-term prez and as disorganized as the Repugs are now, one solid candidate emerging over the next 4 years, as Bill Clinton emerged in 92, can give them the WH.

  32. Davebo says:

    @Pch101: I could see her winning re-election in a landslide if, as I suspect, the GOP doubles down after this defeat and continues the witch hunt (hopefully to include house impeachment proceedings.

    You have to go back to Reagan in 1984 to find a bigger popular vote win than Clinton’s 1996 win.

  33. Pch101 says:

    @Davebo:

    Bill is charismatic. His wife, not so much.

    She has certainly suffered from 20+ years of relentless attacks, virtually all of which are built on a foundation of crap. But she also isn’t that likable, and unfortunately, that hurts her with her ability to win over public opinion.

    She’s clever enough to overcome some of it and to win over some minds, but she isn’t such a natural schmoozer or commanding speaker that she can win over many hearts. That says more about what is wrong with voters than it does about her, but it is what it is.

  34. Scott O says:

    @Davebo: I’m starting a new conspiracy theory. Comey and friends got out of the market on 10/28 and got back in last Friday.

  35. bill says:

    so much for polling, hope y’all don’t gamble.

  36. MunchHRCboxgrad says:

    Close your eyes and imagine the sound of the Don’s voice saying “WWwwrrooong” when he was correcting that nasty corrupt crooked women on the debate stage…

  37. Yep: this prediction was very much incorrect.

  38. MunchHRCboxgrad says:

    Yeah thank God.

  39. Dave Schuler says:

    You got the numbers pretty close. You just got the assignments wrong. 😉

    In fairness, I and practically everybody else calculated wrong, too.

  40. RockThisTown says:

    January 20, 2017: President Trump.

    Wow, the rumors here of the Republican party’s demise sure seem greatly exaggerated . . . .