Obama Beats Palin By 16 Points In Hypothetical 2012 Contest

Yet more evidence to aid to the pile showing that nominating Sarah Palin would be a huge mistake for the GOP:

President Obama would trounce former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in a hypothetical match-up for the 2012 presidential election, a new poll found Tuesday.’

Obama leads Palin, the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate, by a 16-point margin, the Bloomberg News National Poll found.

Fifty-one percent of likely voters said they would vote to reelect Obama in a hypothetical match-up against Palin, who drew the support of 35 percent of likely voters.

Ten percent said they likely would not vote in an Obama-Palin contest, and 4 percent said they were not sure.

So at this point it’s fairly clear that if the GOP nominates Palin in 2012, it will be doing so with the full knowledge that doing so virtually guarantees Barack Obama’s re-election. Could they possibly be that stupid? Yea, I think they could.

FILED UNDER: Barack Obama, Campaign 2012, Politicians, Quick Takes, Sarah Palin, US Politics
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020.

Comments

  1. Trumwill says:

    As I’ve said before, regardless of what the polls say I just don’t think a Palin nomination is likely at all, if she runs. Campaigning is hard work and requires superb discipline and organizational skills. Not only does Palin not have these skills, but she is unlikely to turn her campaign over to someone that does (ie an Axelrod or Rove) and you can’t outsource work ethic.

  2. Rich says:

    If you want to know who the Democrats fear the most, it’s the candidates who they say have no chance at all. If they really thought the spread was that great they’d be pleading with the Republicans to nominate her. The fact that they are telling Conservatives that Palin doesn’t stand a chance is all you need to know.

  3. Trumwill says:

    Rich, the problem is that it’s not just Democrats saying this.

  4. Patrick T. McGuire says:

    Palin winning in 2012 is just as ridiculous as Massachusetts electing a Republican senator.

  5. myrtle says:

    this where our faith come in to help

  6. An Interested Party says:

    Oh, but there are many Democrats, liberals, progressives, etc. who are just praying (yes, even the atheists, I’m sure!) that Sister Sarah runs in 2012 against the president…it would very easily be a repeat of the 1964 presidential election…

  7. Tano says:

    Of course the comment thread of one post and one blog, numbering less than a dozen comments, cannot be a representative sample of anything…
    but we can dream, no?

    When you read the comments above, I think you see exactly why the GOP may well be doomed to not only a Palin candidacy, but a Palin nomination. These people are out there, and though we may laugh at them, the GOP activists love them, because they need them. Without the energy they put behind their nuttiness, where would the GOP be today.

    It is possible that the Dems will do much better this November than the conventional wisdom says….but the odds seem against it. If the GOP wins the House, I guarantee you that Palin et.,al. will loudly claim credit, and there will not be any organized group within the GOP to defend an alternative interpretation.

    With that kind of a wind behind her, with the vast conservative media behind her, and with more charisma (I guess thats what it is) amongst the GOP activists – seriously….who could possibly stop her? Mitt Romney? you. must. be kidding….Mitch Daniels? Tim Pawlenty? Mike Huckabee? Newt? (Newt for VP – there is your ticket folks) .

    Ya gotta go with the over on this one – with regard to the Obama – Reagan comparisons. Obama has pretty consistently tracked about 3-4 points higher than Reagan in Gallup approval at comparable points in their presidencies. Reagan reached 35% approval in the months after his first mid-terms, then went on to win re-election with 58%.

    Given that Palin is no Walter Mondale, and Obama runs 3-4 points up as it is, well….can we hear 5-6 points better than Reagan? That would be slightly beyond the FDR, Johnson, Nixon level of landslide that marks the high-water mark since the Monroe re-elect in 1820.

    I’m going with the over….

  8. Steve says:

    Polls change with disparity and you can rest assured the RINOs will be all over this.

    In January 1979, the NY Times reported the following:

    “WASHINGTON, Jan. 20–President Carter would easily defeat either former Gov. Ronald Reagan of California or former President Gerald R. Ford if the election were held today, according to the Gallup Poll. ”

    And RINOs like Ford deemed Reagan “unelectable” in 1978.

    The American people will make our choice after living under this administration for another two years.

    But one thing is for sure, they will not be a RINO.

    Right now, I only support two folks:

    Sarah Palin
    Chris Christie

  9. G.A.Phillips says:

    ***’The American people will make our choice after living under this administration for another two years.***that’s a good point!!

    TWO MORE YEARS OF OBAMA is gonna work wonders for a lot prospects….

  10. Brummagem Joe says:

    Rich says:
    Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 20:05
    ” The fact that they are telling Conservatives that Palin doesn’t stand a chance is all you need to know.”

    Go ahead Rich. Make my day.

  11. Scramjet says:

    Oh yes Palinites, please DO continue believing that she has a chance! We are all begging you to. Pleease nominate the most unpopular woman in America. That’s right, the polls are rigged. Your girl has a chance! We’re all secretly terrified of her because we know she has a hidden majority somewhere out there that doesn’t respond to polls but will emerge at the Zero Hour. It’s hidden where the WMDs were.

  12. Patrick says:

    “If you want to know who the Democrats fear the most, it’s the candidates who they say have no chance at all. If they really thought the spread was that great they’d be pleading with the Republicans to nominate her.”

    All right.

    PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS GOOD AND PURE IN THIS UNIVERSE, RUN SARAH PALIN AGAINST OBAMA IN 2012!

    And again in 2016, and in 2020, and in 2024…

    Just like your tax and economic policies, don’t stop trying just because it was a disaster the last time. Perseverance is the name of the game.

  13. Greg says:

    Wrong, Rich. I fear Romney far more than Palin. He’s got genuine, bona-fide business experience, served out a full term as governor in a liberal state (thus burnishing his moderate credentials for the general election), and definitely has the discipline to run a largely gaffe-free campaign. Romney strikes me as one of the most viable GOP candidates (the others being Mitch Daniels and John Thune.)

    Palin may run, but I don’t think she’ll win the Republican nomination; the big business/finance side of the Republican Party, and Norquist, and most of the party apparatus–don’t want Palin, precisely because she’s not as viable as most of the others. So they’ll unite behind Romney–or someone more palatable than him, like Daniels. Thune has an outside shot, but he’ll need to explain away his vote for TARP.

  14. Chris B says:

    “Pleease nominate the most unpopular woman in America. That’s right, the polls are rigged. Your girl has a chance! We’re all secretly terrified of her because we know she has a hidden majority somewhere out there that doesn’t respond to polls but will emerge at the Zero Hour. It’s hidden where the WMDs were.”

    Much , much love for the WMD line.

    The scary thing is that this is exactly what the Palinites think. Any article that dares suggest that not everyone loves Sarah is shouted down in the comments section – with a great deal of passion and very few facts.

    These comments are actually light compared to those I saw on a CBS post about Palin’s 22% approval rating. Some of the responses were literally 50 lines long – with no pesky Enter key getting in the way. Too much passion to punctuate, I suppose.

    And what particularly cracks me up is when they mockingly refer to Obama as “The One”. Have you ever seen Palin’s fans just stare at her? They don’t think she has a hotline to God – they think she IS God.

    (Fill in the supreme being of your choice.)

  15. Greg:
    Why Romney? Will the Teahadists trust him?

  16. Greg says:

    Trust? Maybe not. But I think they’ll fall in line, sensing a winner–I suspect he’s more palatable to them than, say, John McCain was in ’08; Romney will promise whoever they want for VP–some archconservative (possibly Jim deMint). Romney’s the one who can get the love from the business establishment, something Huckabee will never get; I don’t know if Daniels or Thune have the name recognition or passion to dislodge him.

  17. A.R.Yngve says:

    ***** ***** will bury her own country.