Setting The Pre-Debate Benchmarks

This post is meant to be as much an experiment to test the impact of the 2012 Presidential Debates as anything else. My intention is to post updates like this before each of the scheduled Presidential and Vice-Presidential Debates and note any changes that have occurred.

So. first, we have the RealClearPoliticals National Poll Average, which as of tonight stands at +3.1 in the President’s favor, and trend lines that look like this:

Next, we have the RCP Electoral College Map Projection, which currently shows the President one Electoral Vote short of victory:

Now, let’s see how things change over the next three weeks or so.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2012, US Politics, , , ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug Mataconis held a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020. He passed far too young in July 2021.


  1. Septimius says:

    I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict that Doug Mataconis, James Joyner, and Stephen L. Taylor will all declare Barack Obama the winner of tonight’s debate.

  2. michael reynolds says:

    Obama is getting spanked. Don’t know whether it will move the polls but he’s getting his ass kicked.