Stocks Plummet Amid Coronavirus and Oil Fears
Trading has resumed after an early plunge triggered automatic suspension.
It’s been another wild morning on Wall Street. The markets reopened just minutes ago after a steep drop triggered a temporary suspension of trading.
CNN is essentially live-blogging it.
Stocks resumed trading at 9:49 am ET, after the New York Stock Exchange halted activity following a 7% drop in the S&P 500.
*The S&P was down 7.2% upon the reopen.
*The Dow fell 7.9%, or 2030 points.
*The Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.2%
UPDATE: We should have all seen this coming:
Transportation stocks plunge into a bear market
Oil prices may be plummeting, but that’s small consolation for crude-dependent airlines, trucking companies and railroads.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) plunged 6.6% Monday morning before the market was halted for a circuit breaker. The index was still down more than 5% when stocks resumed trading.
The transports are now officially in a bear market — more than 20% below its recent peak. Lower fuel costs won’t offset the massive drop in demand that transportation companies are facing in light of the coronavirus outbreak.
The index, which counts major airlines United (UAL), Delta (DAL), Southwest (LUV) and American (AAL) among its 20 members, has plunged 26% from the 52-week high it hit in January.
This is bad news for the global economy, as these companies are responsible for getting goods and people around the world.
Investors are clearly worried the bear market for transportation stocks could be a harbinger of a long protracted pullback for stocks — and perhaps even a global recession — on the horizon.
Indeed, we appear to be in store for the worst day of trading since 2011.
But not an all-time bad day:
During the Great Depression, on “Black Monday” in 1987 and during the Great Recession, stocks fell by much more.
That’s not exactly a comforting thought … but it helps put today’s 6% decline in context.
10/19/1987 -20.467%
10/28/1929 -12.34%
10/29/1929 -10.16%
11/16/1935 -10.11%
03/18/1935 -10.06%
10/15/2008 -9.03%
Not comforting in the least. Especially since we already had a rather sizable correction last week.
For some reason all my Trumpie friends have stopped saying “look at my 401k!!!!”
Today’s a good day to remember a few things can all be true at once:
1. The market may have been over-valued and needed a correction.
2. This isn’t a normal correction.
3. Presidents have limited overall effects on long-term economic trends.
4. Presidents and their actions (or lack there of) can have short-term effects on economics (even more so at times like this).
5. That tying your success to the success of the market can be a powerful double edge sword.
6. That gutting the government and leaving many key bureaucratic positions empty at places like the Fed and CDC will come back to bite you in the ass when rapid responses are necessary.
7. That believing you can PR your way out of multiple external issues that you have no control over is not a long term strategy that leads to stability if things get worse.
@mattbernius: It’s a dangerous position, indeed.
I moved a lot of my liquid assets from bonds to stocks last week, to take advantage of the 12% correction that had already taken place. I’ll likely move more soon. But it may well be a while before we rebound to the bloated level it was a month ago.
This is all Obama’s fault.
/snark
@Daryl and his brother Darryl: Trump blamed Obama for the CDC last week.
Oil prices are about to drop sharply, which is going to bankrupt a lot of American companies.
Right now I’m glad I hesitated to invest in stocks, meager as that would have been, and held off. But I need to find an index fund PDQ and be prepared to move when the markets bottom out.
I’m also glad I work for a company that gets over 95% of its revenue from selling food to the government. Because this looks like it could be really bad.
@James Joyner:
I considered pulling my liquid assets out of the Stock Market last week and didn’t. At this point, I am going back and forth about whether or not I’m along for the ride. When 2008 happened, I wasn’t in this position — I only started really investing in Stocks after the market crashed later this year.
It’s a completely odd feeling trying to watch as all of these shifts happen on “imaginary” money (and yeah, I completely get how privileged that statement sounds). As a hobbiest, I’m not sure the PITA factor is enough to make it worth while pulling everything and then reinvesting it later (not to mention, I know I’m not smart enough to time the market — even if something like that is possible).
Also, to the point at the end of your post, it’s critical to look at percentages versus raw numbers… It’s something I keep learning over and over again in my line of work.
@mattbernius: Indeed. I’ve been investing, almost entirely into retirement funds (IRAs and 401ks) into stocks since shortly after starting my working life in 1988. (Like, literally, two or three months in.) Almost all of it is in index funds.
I wouldn’t have much in liquid funds to invest were it not from the sale of houses in the absurdly expensive DC Metro area and some life insurance money from my late, first wife.
BTW, this is what I mean by managing externalities by PR:
I’m honestly surprised this hasn’t been culled yet, but if things continue to break bad, this is exactly the type of “mission accomplished” self promotion that will come back in lots of political advertisements.
@mattbernius:
Indeed…on Morning Joe they played a bit with facts about the virus interspliced with Conway saying that the virus had been contained…over and over.
Effective.
I suspect this is a stock market panic tacked on to the chute in the UK and Italian stock markets…..which happened because of the quarantine of northern Italy.
We’re going to see a lot of this for a while until we reach equilibrium again.
@grumpy realist: it’s about oil right now.
@Teve:
Yup…Russia is fuqing with us.
@Daryl and his brother Darryl: Fracking has cost them market share.
@Daryl and his brother Darryl: I don’t think this is anything that planned or devious. OPEC couldn’t agree to a deal and the Saudis are punishing the others with a sell-off.
If I didn’t know that this was all part of an elaborate global hoax, top to bottom, beginning to end, I just might start thinking that I’ve had enough of all this winning.
@James Joyner: From USA Today:
Barron’s adds:
If anything, Russia is the one being fuqed with.
@James Joyner:
Regardless of whom is fuqing with whom, I for one am super glad that Trump and Kusher invested so much in building a great relationship with the Saudis. No way that can possibly go wrong…
@mattbernius: If I may:
8. This isn’t the markets reacting to ‘fear of the coronavirus’ this is actual harm to the economy caused by the coronavirus.
9. Presidents may or may not have much impact on the economy, but Trump has never hesitated to take credit for a good economy he he nothing to do with, so eff him now.
10. Fun Fact – Every Republican president since WWII has had a recession start on his watch. There was never any reason to expect Trump wouldn’t.
10.a. Better Trump have his late in his first, and thereby hopefully only term. In fact this timing is almost perfect.
10.b. This has cost me a pile of (paper) money. It may be worth it.
11. Stock markets recover.
12. Every ton of carbon we don’t burn because of this is a good thing.
13. I’ve read that energy companies are carrying heavy debt and may go into bankruptcy.
13.a. If they do, we’ll bail them out. Why? Same reason we bailed out the banks. Lobbying and money. And by “we” I mean you and me, although we’ll have little say in the matter.
@Daryl and his brother Darryl:
For a change, they’re doing so openly.
There’s concern about bonds by energy companies.
It might then spread to the bonds of other companies.
@James Joyner:
Frackers in North Dakota and refiners in Houston might disagree with you. Russia is target Number #1 for MBS but the American awl bidness is a drive-by casualty.
It would be nice if we were preparing for this on the economic front rather than fretting over the stock market. We need to provide individuals and companies the ability to have workers stay home without risking major financial harm. As it stands now, there are too many workers who risk losing their job, and their health care, if they need to stay home for a prolonged period. Companies that cannot fulfill contracts and risk going under are going to pressure workers to come in and do their jobs. We are probably going to need an economic stimulus of some sorts to get things back on track when and if this is over or slowing down. We should be planning for that, which will be more difficult since we ran up the debt again so that we could make rich people richer, and get an extra 0.2% GDP growth.
We need some leadership and less whining about how this is unfair.
Steve
@James Joyner:
@Michael Reynolds:
Right…Russia saw OPEC’s policy of Supply Restraint as giving too much opportunity for American Shale producers to grow. That is why they backed out of the alliance with OPEC, which began this price war.
@gVOR08: i sell new flagship phones, data plans etc. for one of the major carriers. My store is out of Google Pixels, iPhone Pro Maxes, and a few others. I’m losing multiple sales per week from it. And the manager says every store in the region is in the same shape.
A few days ago we finally got Samsung S20 Ultras in.
Three of them.
@Michael Reynolds: According to this Bloomberg article this is a Russian attack directly on American frackers. The Saudi action is a predictable, and likely desired, response to the Russians.
And our President* is the pockets of the Russians and Saudis. May you live in interesting times. The Senate I’m not sure about, they may be more in the pockets of the aptly named frackers.
Gas dropped below $2/gallon. Down near the state line it is $1.89. Now I will have some extra money to spend at the theme park.
“Buy low, sell high”. Read “Rule #1” by Phil Town.
Fortunately we have nothing to worry about, Trump is managing the crisis by tweeting that SQUIRREL! the Obama-Biden administration SQUIRREL! is the most corrupt in history. LYING SQUIRREL!
The Too-Tan Toilet Tweeter has got this all under control.
The market’s given up everything it gained in 2018 and 2019. Half a point rate cut? Chewed up and spit out. (And silly me mostly in cash, bonds and property.) Obviously we’re going to need another tax cut for rich people.
@Tyrell:
And lines will be much, much shorter at the theme park since only fools will be there.
@Guarneri:
Glad to see you’re going to be denying the reality of the situation to the bitter end. Also, I note that you’ve yet, in all your posturing to provide any positive defense of the actions that Trump and his administration have been taking. If what everyone — including former Trump Advisors — are saying is BS then it should be easily to make that positive argument….
Yet all I ever see from you are crickets? Have the top analysts at HotAir or PowerLine or ZeroHedge not given you an easy to copy and paste defense yet?
Do you ever get tired of all this winning?
@mattbernius:
It’s getting very complicated for Cult45. Hand-washing is heresy. Staying home when you’re sick is proof of a lack of devotion to the one true faith. But there’s that persnickety virus which just. . . persists. I mean, sure, it’s Fake News and Trump has all under control. But at the same time, best to cancel that cruise to Italy and blame Obama.
Now it’s serious even for the Truest of Acolytes, ’cause now it’s about money, which is all that matters to a creature like Guarneri. He’s in a tough spot. Gotta worship the Orange One, must never admit doubt about his godhood, and yet. . . that darned stock market.
I assume the Evangelicals will find a way to blame teh gays, and the Charlottesville Republicans will blame Jews, and Trump is already blaming Obama. The one thing you can be certain of: the Cult will go to any length rather than criticize Trump. Which is not at all proof that we’re dealing with a cult of personality. Nope.
Years ago, when my father died, we took our share of his estate in cash. While we’ve put some into Treasuries (mostly 13-week T-bills), CDs, and annuities, the bulk of it is still liquid. It earns very little, but we live on our pensions and Social Security. It’s comforting at this juncture to have eight years’ normal spending not dependent on the market’s oscillations.
@Michael Reynolds:
The newest bit is pretending to be the rational ones against “media hype and hysteria” by pointing out flu kills thousands a year and nobody gives a damn. Stupid liberals panicking over nothing when old people get sick and die every year!
First off, flu is not more deadly then COVID-19 – it’s just had the chance to rack up a bigger body count in sheer volume by being around longer and having people accept that “flu happens”. God forbid this thing becomes seasonal or we’re going to see even that factoid get jossed. Second, they report the flu death count all the damn time but it’s like death by car accident; it’s so “common” people don’t pay attention the numbers anymore and it’s just a meaningless statistic. Lastly, they’re trying to minimize the damage by saying it affect “only” the elderly or those with pre-existing conditions…. not realizing that it’s the hospitalization and missed work from the sick part that’s a huge worry on top of a death toll that could be prevented. How many “healthy” people are gonna get slapped with a medical bill they can’t afford because they lived? How many paychecks will be shorted from missed work or from no work because there’s no customers?
Coronavirus is going to make it’s mark whether Trumpkins want to admit it or not. Maybe it won’t kill you but it’s gonna take out somebody you know and serious affect your finances. Maybe it’s a friend of a friend or that co-worker you talk to once in a while gets sick and becomes a statistic. Maybe the nice cashier at the store goes missing…. did they get sick or get let go because of lessened business? Maybe you hear about a cousin that has to declare bankruptcy because of a 40K hospital bill from a week-long corona illness. Maybe you can’t go to your normal concert series or buy something you can normally get with ease. Flu doesn’t do that and it’s getting harder and harder to them to pretend it’s all a big media-driven hoax.
@KM: The “but the flu…” camp is making me nuts.
This is clearly different, and people seem to have quite a few days between becoming infected and presenting with symptoms, which is very efficient for transmission. There’s no use in panicking, but being prepared is warranted.
@Guarneri:
…
Please tell me you’re doing a bit. Please.
Because the alternative is you believe your argument, the political talking point that if we had been isolationist this wouldn’t have happened, makes any sort of sense.
Are you serious that this is all globalism’s fault? I mean seriously, you recognize that arguing that “COVID-19” proves Trump was right is… seriously… an intellectually bankrupt statement.
Plus, are you seriously arguing that his response to the situation was somehow “US First” — whatever the hell that means — when it’s pretty clear that what was good for the Country didn’t particularly matter and his response has largely been “Trump First” and what was best for his reelection campaign.
I mean, what you just wrote is embarrassingly intellectually bankrupt.
And further, it doesn’t even address the question that was asked. Nor is that a positive defense of the steps the administration has taken to stop COVID-19 in the US.
God, I honestly have nothing for pity for you if you think that what you just wrote was grounded or intellectual response.
Oh, and this isn’t a bit. I’m not trying to be funny. If you truly believe what you just wrote, and also that you have any objective analytical skills around policy evaluation or identifying political BS, then I’m sorry for you because all you are doing is deeply embarrassing yourself to anyone who can read.
It that’s really the case, loyalty to Trump and conservative media have truly broken you.
@Guarneri:
Sniff. . .sniff. . .sniff. . .
Yep, that’s fear stink coming off you in waves.
@Michael Reynolds: @Daryl and his brother Darryl: @gVOR08: I’m sure the Russians are happy to hurt American shale, which is both a competitor and an anchor on prices. But Putin and company can ill afford a precipitous drop in oil prices—it’s the only thing propping up their shitty economy. They’re already in dire straits because the market has been well below $100/barrel for years.
They seem to be in a game of chicken with the Saudis, who they believe even more dependent in the short term on oil prices.
“Skip the rich getting richer crap steve.”
Just for you. Glad you noticed.
“Only one person has been an advocate of America first, and locating economic activity back in the US.”
Surely you dont mean the guy who was having all of his Trump stuff manufactured in China just like everyone else? The guy hiring illegals just like everyone else?
Surely you also realize that lots of other people advocated for having jobs come back here. Unfortunately, the investor class, the wealthy, were the ones making money and being catered to so it wasn’t changing and it still wont with Trump either.
Steve
@mattbernius:
I believe @Guarneri is endorsing Juche, complete economic self-sufficiency. I mean, it’s worked for North Korea. . . And Trump does love Kim Jong UN. I mean, it all adds up. It’s the way to go. Let’s start by moving all those rare earths mines out of China and putting them in Kansas. Then we can teach Alabama school children to assemble iPhones for five bucks a day.
@James Joyner:
Sure…but Russia can produce a barrel for ~$40.
The Arab States…due largely to their government expenses and subsidies to citizens…need about $70 to break even.
US…I’ve seen numbers as high as $90…but I suspect some of the easier stuff is around $40-$50.
Russia knew what it was doing, and I’m sure OPEC is doing exactly what Russia thought they would do.
And we have a President who has NO IDEA what to do.
But he does have spiffy red hats, made in China, to sell to his goobers.
@Daryl and his brother Darryl: I’m not sure what that Saudi number represents, but their extraction cost was south of $10 per barrel in 2016. Russia’s was twice that.
@Guarneri:
???
@KM:
Flu ins’t just old news and background statistics. There are measures taken against it. There are flu shots, drugs like tamiflu, and the people at risk are advised on it every year. Likewise there are measures for car accidents, like safety features, enforcement of DUI laws, etc.
Were this not so, there’d be an outcry about it. Like we’re seeing with the minimal effort and lack of leadership Trump wants to be acclaimed for.
@Guarneri:
Um…no…There’s only one group that thinks Trump was right…and you always think he is right about everything. Because you are not smart.
@Michael Reynolds:
Went to the Denver Zoo with the granddaughters yesterday. No sign of a slowdown, but we’ve only got a dozen or so verified cases here in Colorado, all of them traceable to people returning from travel. At some point it will get loose along the Front Range, though, and then we’ll see.
@MarkedMan:
Yes…their extraction price is really low…but paying for all that royalty, and subsidies to citizens is tied to oil profits…hence the $70 number.
@Michael Reynolds:
Sounds like more of a Kansas/Brownback thing.
@Steven L. Taylor: Rather than the Horse Whisperer, I think we’ll need the Jackass Whisperer to answer that one…
Like somebody said on Twitter, “What about the flu” is such a bullshit argument, because imagine if 9/11 happened and the government’s response was “what about the flu, that kills way more people.”
DJIA fell 2,013 points today.
@Teve:
Again, its better to work in percentages, not points (in part due to how large the points have gotten) — that’s a 7.79% fall. Which is big (11th greatest in history) though far from the top (thankfully) and not yet to 2008 levels.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average#Largest_percentage_changes
And at 7.29% today was the 10th biggest drop for the NASDAQ.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_NASDAQ_Composite#Largest_percentage_changes
We’ll see what tomorrow brings. If it’s another top 10ish day for both, then we can really start to get concerned.
@mattbernius: if you want to talk %, it’s fallen 19.2 percent from the peak.
@Michael Cain:
I’m supposed to fly to the UK later this month or early April. I still plan to go. But I was also planning to do the Edinburgh Fringe in late August, and I have doubts about that. I’ll probably avoid large gatherings, but then again, that’s easy for me to say, I already hate large gatherings.
@Teve:
Agreed. But that is potentially part of a correction. The issue at the moment is if it keeps falling and how fast it falls. percentages are helpful for all of that.
The fact that almost a third of that correction happened in one day isn’t a good sign. But time will tell if it’s a really bad sign.
@Michael Reynolds: My wife and I are going to Scotland in May for a wedding. So far, the trip is still on, but I did buy trip insurance for the trip itself, for the first time. (I usually just buy it for medical)
@mattbernius:
Well, you can see the cognitive bind he’s in. To admit that having a functioning CDC and pandemic response plan matters would be to admit that government serves a useful function. Once you go there, the entire edifice crumbles. Or, I suppose he could retreat into the prepared libertarian bunker of “freedom is more important than ___”, for whatever you choose to fill in the blank with.
@Guarneri:
This came to mind this morning and it struck me that this current situation utterly underscores how wrong Trump is. We live in a globalized world with globalized consequences. You can’t just seal off the USA from it. And, further, you have to cooperate with others to deal with complex, globalized problems (whether they be financial or global health or whatever).
The idea that the lesson you are learning from all of this is “America first” and the benefits of economic nationalism just underscores how you understand even less than normally appears to be the case.
Even if, for example, more manufacturing was in the US, do you suppose that we would only have an internal market?
Are you suggesting America first would mean no travel to the US or by Americans outside the US?
On what planet would the US be shielded from oil markets?
You claim to have profound business acumen and you can look at the shambles of this response by this president and claim “now we see why Trump was right.”
And, indeed, up is down and black is white.