Tabs of Christmas Eve

Today, Public Policy Polling released a survey of Arizonans, showing that headed into the 2024 election, Senator Sinema is broadly unpopular and trails Rep. Ruben Gallego significantly in a three-way race. The poll shows Gallego at 40% and Republican Kari Lake at 41%, with Sinema in a distant third at 13%.

Fancelli’s fortune comes from the Publix supermarket chain, which has sought to distance itself from her support for the pro-Trump rally. Based in her hometown of Lakeland, Publix touts its reputation for customer service with a decades-old “where shopping is a pleasure” slogan. Last year, in response to inquiries from The Post, the company said it “cannot control the actions of individual stockholders” and issued an unusual rebuke of a member of the founder’s family.

“We are deeply troubled by Ms. Fancelli’s involvement in the events that led to the tragic attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6,” the company said in a statement at the time.

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Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. EddieInCA says:

    I believe Kirsten Sinema is toast. Her move to being an independent won’t work in AZ. She’s pissed of Dems, and she’s a former Bernie Bro, so doubt the MAGA’s will vote for her.

    Who’s her constituency as an independent? Geuniely asking.

  2. gVOR08 says:

    So the Sinema situation is what everybody speculated when she declared herself an Independent. She’d lose a D primary to Gallego and Gallego would likely win the general. But by forcing a three way race she still loses but the R wins. So she’s maneuvering hoping the Ds won’t primary her. The interesting thing is the linked release of the poll is from Gallego’s campaign. I guess making a case Sinema would lose the general anyway, so her supporters should get behind Gallego.

  3. EddieInCA says:

    so her supporters should get behind Gallego.

    All 19 of them. By the time 2024 rolls around, I have a feeling Sinema will have few supporters left.

    Again, who is her constituency in AZ as an independent. Right now, I’d wager she’d take more GOP votes disgusted with MAGA than Dem votes disgusted by Biden.

  4. Stormy Dragon says:


    Sinema also seems to have pissed off all her colleagues in the Senate, which means no lobbyist jobs when she loses.

  5. inhumans99 says:

    Sinemas panicked and clearly not well thought out decision to become an independent is quickly coming back to bite her in the rear. I kind-of understand why she panicked, it is not just that her vote is no longer the most important one to be cast diminishing her status as a deciding voice over what bills get voted on, but that she could easily picture Arizona voters thinking to themselves that since she is no longer pivotal to ensuring that Democrats maintain some semblance of power in D.C., that they might decide in the next election to vote for someone whose name does not start with an S, and end with an A.

    She would have probably been better off just staying put as a Democratic member of Congress, but she decided to go down this path and just has to work as hard she can at preventing herself from stumbling too badly.

  6. Michael Cain says:

    @gVOR08: As I understand the rules in Arizona, a registered Democrat who fills out the paperwork and collects something less than 8,000 signatures makes the primary ballot. Then the primary winner makes the general election ballot. If that’s correct, someone will do it. Heck, since the petition signers don’t have to be Democrats, just registered voters, the Republicans will do it.

    Given that a (D) will be on the ballot for the general, it’s very much in the party’s interest to make sure it’s the strongest (D) candidate they have.

  7. gVOR08 says:

    @inhumans99: She’d have been better off to remain a Democrat, competently represent the interests of her state, see that constituent service was well handled, and showed up for town halls and many other local events. But apparently that was out of the question for her.

  8. Michael Cain says:

    It seems to me that Hannity et al really have no other defense than, “It was entertainment. No reasonable person could possibly believe those jokers. We certainly didn’t.”

  9. charon says:

    @Michael Cain:

    I believe even if the D did not field any candidate, Sinema as an I would still lose by a big margin, a blowout. So it makes no sense for the D to do anything other than run the strongest possible candidate (Gallego, obviously). Sinema’s implicit extortion is pointless.