Trump and Utah

Via WaPo:  This new Utah poll is amazingly bad for Donald Trump

No state voted more heavily for the GOP presidential nominee in 2012 than Utah. And in 2008, it was the third-most Republican state in the union.

A new poll shows that Donald Trump is tied with Hillary Clinton in Utah.

We’re not quite saying, of course, that Utah is a tossup or that Trump is in real trouble in the ruby-red state — or even that it portends trouble for Trump in the 2016 presidential race, more broadly. There are plenty of factors at work here that are unique to Utah and the poll (which we will get to).

But it’s also hard to overemphasize how unthinkable it is for a Republican — any Republican — to be tied in Utah in any poll.

Currently Johnson is polling at 13% with Trump and Clinton at 35% each (which leaves 17% not accounted for in those numbers).  Without a doubt a lot of the undecided support, and almost certainly a chunk of the Johnson support will swing to Trump and he will carry the state.  Still, for such a heavily Republican state, Utah does not appear to care for Trump very much.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2016, Quick Takes, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. An Interested Party says:

    Still, for such a heavily Republican state, Utah does not appear to care for Trump very much.

    Apparently, the heavily religious in this state don’t want to vote for a multi-divorced, vulgar, money-grubbing grifter…unlike evangelicals in the South, among other places…

  2. Hal_10000 says:

    @An Interested Party:

    That and Mormons specifically don’t like Trump. Mormons are very pro-immigration. And they are keenly aware of the dangers of repressing a religious minority. I have a number of Mormon colleagues and friends. They are very conservative. And they do not like Trump at all. They see right through him.

  3. Dazedandconfused says:

    Mitt is very influential in Utah and has been remarkably vocal and eloquent relating his nausea.

  4. Kylopod says:

    There’s another factor which I brought up a few months ago after Trump did poorly in the Utah primary: Mormons are one of the best-educated religious groups in the country.

  5. Andre Kenji says:

    I´m impressed with the Portuguese from Mormon Missionaries. And it´s not easy to learn Portuguese if you are a native English speaker.

  6. JohnMcC says:

    There was an OpEd by McKay Coppins in yesterday’s NYTimes that plowed this ground thoroughly. “Donald Trump’s Mormon Problem”.

  7. Dazedandconfused says:

    @Kylopod:

    The primary school for teaching our government languages of all stripes in in Utah. It takes advantage of the Mormon penchant of missions. The net result has been oodles of the critters in the bowels of State and our intelligence services. I became aware of the remarkable symbiosis between those critters and the missionaries in Africa during the early nineties. It’s no small feat to have so few of those missionaries get themselves in a pile of trouble in many of the places they go, and it is done with a combination of sophistication on the part of the Mormons and some folks in high places keeping a careful overwatch on them beside just doing their official jobs.

    I’m not ever going to be a Mormon, but find it impossible to hate them in the same sort of way I find it impossible to hate Ned Flanders.