Wednesday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
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55 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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In the past few days there have been two polls, one from USA Today/Suffolk, the other from WSJ, showing Ron DeSantis with a substantial lead over Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup.
American Enterprise Fellow Marc Thiessen has suddenly decided that Donald Trump is a deranged incompetent. Bill Lueders wonders what took him so long:
http://www.thebulwark.com/youre-only-leaving-him-now/
@CSK:
Whoops. Try:
http://www.thebulwark.com/youre-only-leaving-trump-now/
@CSK: What I find interesting is how Thiessen’s effusive praise for Trump as president is based almost entirely on Trump’s SCOTUS picks. That is one area that–while highly consequential–has less to do with Trump himself than almost anything else he did while president. It was far more a McConnell achievement than a Trump achievement. Those vacancies would have been there under any Republican president, and any Republican president would have filled them.
But that gets to what I believe is Thiessen’s real motivating factor: Trump was the Republican who managed to win. If he hadn’t won in 2016, he wouldn’t have been able to fill any of those vacancies (and of course not all of those vacancies would even have happened–it’s doubtful Kennedy would have retired under a President Hillary). The real issue is that Thiessen no longer sees Trump as a winner. Not only did Trump lose to the guy we were told was senile and brain-addled and never left his basement, but his persistent denial of the election results two years out appears to have been counterproductive to the party’s efforts to retake control of the Senate, the very place needed to confirm all those judges.
Thiessen is tired of all this losing. That’s what this is about.
Ukraine related news.
A battery of the French-Italian SAMP-T Mamba anti-missile system to be sent to Ukraine.
China Bans Exports Of Loongson Military Grade Processors To Russia
Bad for Vlad. How sad.
@Kylopod:
Oh, absolutely it’s about Trump now being a loser.
One thing I found interesting (from my own observation) is that a lot of people disavowed Trump only after he dissed DeSantis. They were willing to accept, or even praise, all the crap he said and did before that moment. But DeSantis seems to have been the breaking point. The Trumpkins would ignore or rationalize all Trump’s losses before that.
Today is the tenth anniversary of the Sandy Hook school shooting.
@JohnSF: Very interesting about China banning processor sales. What do you think their motivation is?
Have you read the Mark Meadow text messages TPM has revealed?
My overwhelming take-away is how stupid, and how gullible, these people are.
These 34 Congress-people believe some of the wildest shit.
@daryl and his brother darryl:
I really enjoyed the spelling of “marshall” law.
As Hell Week 2 continues (and time permitting I’ll expound on the latest outrage), yesterday I got my newest cookware. A 26 cm (10″, it says so on the label) Westinghouse “marble” coated non-stick pan.
I’m sure it’s not real marble, it only looks vaguely like it. Whatever it is, nothing sticks to it. I’ve two other pieces with that finish. One, a short pot, has withstood my cooking for over a year. They’re perfect for things that will stick absent a small pool of cooking oil, like pan roasted potatoes as well as all kinds of meat.
Ceramic cookware is supposed to do the same. the ones I’ve tried work well for a few months, but lose their non-stick properties with use. Many also turn a darker color.
I want to break it in for breakfast Saturday or Sunday by making turkey and bacon grilled cheese Lightyear sandwiches. I figure on doing the bacon first, then saute the onions and grill the turkey slices on the bacon fat.
BTW, when did Westinghouse get into cookware? Maybe they just license the brand?
@MarkedMan:
I’ve seen two opinions, one that China need all the product themselves, other that they have a use for all and aren’t prepared to divert any to their “friends”,
Either way, the message to Moscow is “all assistance short of actual help”. Again.
@JohnSF: China banned the export of the processors to any country, not just Russia. Most of the speculation is that China is going to use all of the yield themselves. Assuming they’re crazy enough to attack Taiwan, two of the “lessons” from Ukraine are (a) don’t run short on precision munitions and relatedly (b) don’t be dependent on imported processors.
@Kathy:
Electrolux has made Westinghouse products since 1997.
@JohnSF: @Michael Cain: Total speculation, but I also wonder whether the revelations that came out in the early days of the Ukraine war had an effect, specifically that Russia doesn’t actually possess an internally designed advanced processor of their own. Given their very, very long border with Russia and past periods of hostile relations, I have to wonder if it changed their calculus from “we sell them our processors but that’s okay because if they didn’t use ours they would just ramp up production of their own”, to “Do we really want to give advanced technology to these idiots?”
@CSK:
I remember something like that happening back in 2016–Limbaugh’s first explicit criticism of Trump came when he started going after Cruz. But they didn’t have a superstar alternative to Trump at the time, and Cruz wasn’t a good fit for that role.
And frankly, I’m not sure DeSantis is either. Almost all the hype around him is based on on-paper stuff. When you actually see him speak, he’s not a very charismatic presence. And he’s walking a careful line right now. To my knowledge he hasn’t uttered a word of public criticism against Trump so far. Trump is going after him, but he’s staying above it all, for now. I can understand why. A great deal of his popularity comes from the fact that a lot of Trumpists like him. The moment he speaks against the orange god, he loses that appeal.
I can’t imagine that this strategy is sustainable for the long haul. At some point he’s going to have to get down in the mud. And the moment he does, he becomes part of the “anti-Trump” brigade. He might as well be Liz Cheney by that point, the way the hardcore MAGAts see it. The insiders and party hacks like Thiessen have been carefully constructing the message that he will carry the torch of Trump’s legacy, despite the fact that Trump himself is clearly not agreeing to this succession.
What’s happening with the R’s and trump, is in someway similar to the run up to 2016 where the party elites and their courtiers attempted to clear the field for Hillary. The reasons are different of course, and R’s are trying to move on from a loser, while Dems were trying to make history. In the case of the R’s, backing of DeSantis, is not only to forestall trump, but to keep other aspirants on the sidelines. The conventional wisdom being that a crowded field benefits trump.
@Kylopod:
You might enjoy this:
http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/how-rush-limbaugh-invented-donald-trump
@CSK:
Electrolux does cookware now? I know they make vacuum cleaners, and I assume other appliances.
@Kathy:
Yeah, they launched their cookware line in 2013.
They’ve also been manufacturing refrigerators, etc. for 23 years now. All the stuff that used to be Westinghouse.
@MarkedMan:
@Michael Cain:
Or, it may be worth helping someone who’s going to win.
But why waste valuable resources on a loser?
Jane Goodall says Trump acts like a chimpanzee.
http://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-chimp/
@daryl and his brother darryl: Those Meadows texts are just…bizarre. THIS is the best we the people can elect?!?! Those messages were so incredibly…juvenile. Ignorant. Ass-kissing. Pathetic.
40 years of right wing talk radio, Fox opinion, and the offshoots and we’ve gone from a conservative leadership class that knew they were spreading BS for the votes, to a conservative leadership class that believes their own BS and drinks their own kool-aid. Not a one of the people involved showed even a hint that they actually understood what a Constitutional Republic even IS. Yes, we know they are morons…it’s still somewhat jarring to actually SEE the…juvenile fawning and authoritarian instincts so nakedly displayed. It was nauseating.
@Just Another Ex-Republican: That was precisely my reaction. These people have no conception, nor care, of what the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution actually mean.
@CSK:
You mean all these years Goodall studied chimps even though she doesn’t like them?
I mean, if she liked them she wouldn’t insult them like that.
@DAllenABQ: But they seem to be certain of what God wants. So the Constitution is secondary.
@CSK:
We had a Westinghouse vertical freezer at home of mid-70s vintage. It was almost always full, so it worked 24/7. It outlasted two or three refrigerators. My mom got rid of it only when she remodeled the kitchen, and decided the old appliance didn’t match the new decor.
On the plus side, the new one had an ice maker.
@Just Another Ex-Republican:
I would at least like Red America to elect people who understand that it is “martial law” not “Marshall Law”.
Can we have some better insurrectionists?
@Kylopod:
I suspect a lot of the Republican “establishment” are hitting the knees every evening, imploring the sweet Lord to please have Garland or Smith or Willis or Bragg or somebody fortheloveofmike take out Trump before 2024 rolls around.
@Gustopher: Eh, I think I’m going to be grateful that our insurrectionists are so…dumb. Competent people might succeed.
@JohnSF:
I’m confident in the afterlife, before Ammit devours their heart*, Toth will tell them, “You had a primary and a general election. And we sent you two impeachments. What more did you need?”
*If any.
@Kathy:
Many people asked for a similar apology from Goodall.
@CSK: As true as her observations are, I thought it wasn’t politically correct to compare specific humans with other primates.
@Kathy:
The guts to wield the knife.
They want someone else to do the deed, so that they can condemn them in public, while being grateful strictly in private.
They fail to see that failing to scotch the MAGAts leaves them politically crippled in the long term.
Relying on idiots may be good tactics, but rarely good strategy.
q.v. Brexiters
@JohnSF: I imagine that if they could wave a magic wand and get any Republican they wanted to be president, it would be someone along the lines of Liz Cheney. But they know that ain’t possible in this environment, so they’re instead trying to direct the Trumpists toward a guy who has not expressed any actual ideological or policy disagreements with Trump–his only difference from Trump is that he’s not Trump. And Trump is the king. That’s it. This is not a moderate vs. conservative division in the party. It’s a division between two personalities squarely in the Nazi wing which by now has totally taken over the party. And the main thing that makes DeSantis appealing in the eyes of the establishment people is that they think he isn’t a loose cannon, instead a coldly calculating monster. They’re not attempting to protect democracy. They’re attempting to direct its coming collapse toward oligarchy rather than autocracy, which is actually what they wanted all along, long before Trump entered the scene.
@JohnSF:
That’s what makes their hearts so heavy, Ammit will feast on them.
Not the failure to act, but the hypocrisy and the craven knuckling under to such a loathsome bunch.
@Franklin:
You can compare one person to a primate, or to other animals I suppose. You can also point out similarities all of humanity has with our unclothed (usually) relatives*. The problem is comparing one specific group to animals.
*Sagan and Druyan spend a very long stretch doing just that in “Shadows of Forgotten Ancestors.”
@Franklin:
Everyone makes an exception for Trump.
@Kathy: I always thought it interesting that when I was in the Peace Corps in West Africa and found myself amongst little kids who had never seen a white person before (no TV in the village and very few books or magazines with pictures), they often talked about how much I looked like a monkey with a pointy nose. I’m about as hairy as a typical white male of European descent, but West African males tend to have very little body hair and what they have is very fine. Monkeys, of course, are covered in hair. (The chief of my village was remarkable in that he could grow a full beard and mustache). My lips were thin and monkeys essentially have no visible lips. And the most common monkey around had very pale skin on its palms and bottoms of its feet, the only places where there was no hair.
@daryl and his brother darryl:
As I occasionally observe, “believe” is a funny word that encompasses everything from I believe the sun will rise in the east tomorrow to I believe in Santa Claus. But more important is Professor Farnkfurt’s view in On Bullshit that there are lairs and there are bull shitters. Liars know what’s true and lie. BSers don’t care what’s true and say whatever they think will work for them.
@gVOR08:
I hope there are a couple of chapters on Trump.
@MarkedMan:
Perspective is a many-faceted thing.
My granddaughters spent the wkend puking and having explosive diarrhea. My DiL thought they were over it so we took them on Monday. Addy girl thru up the chocolate milk my wife gave yer upon arrival but it was otherwise uneventful.
This morning my wife woke up puking her guts out. Spent a good 20-30 minutes in the bathroom holding onto the toilet and crying. I woke up pissing out of my asshole. I also puked twice, once right after drinking half a bottle of doctor recommended gatorade. I am very dehydrated and really needed it to stay down as water alone just isn’t doing the trick.
For almost 3 years I have been largely illness free due to masking in public. I had pretty well forgotten how much being sick just really sucks.
I am feeling fairly normal just now after taking an A-D around noon and some prescription drugs the doc ordered at about 3. I’m really hoping I can get a handle on it as I have an MRI scheduled for 6:15 Friday morn. I’d hate to have to cancel it as it took so long to schedule to begin with.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Well, that sounds awful.
@CSK: It’s hitting my wife far harder than me, at least so far. I’m crossing my fingers and toes that I really can get a hold on it..
@OzarkHillbilly:
You and she have my sympathy.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Hope you both get better soon.
Any idea what it is? Stomach bugs tend to transmit in rather unsavory ways, but there are shortcuts when emesis* is involved.
*Not trying to show off with the five dollar word. It’s just the one word that I can use that doesn’t bring up my last bout of a nasty stomach bug. That one involved fighting down nausea while visiting a meat packing plant. Not a good combination. Especially before you get used to the smell. These days I don’t even notice it.
In a fit of free speech absolutism, Elon of the Thin Skin has banned the @ElonJet account from Twitter.
This account showed the whereabout of Thinskinned private jet. The info, as the link states, is publicly available.
Wonder if he’ll have to buy Mastodon next.
I have an earworm and I am having a super hard time shaking it. I have the usual dodges to shake it; nothing works as of now. It is on perpetual repeat in my brain.
It is a very good song I like very much, but it got stuck so hard in my head it, right now, cannot be unstuck. Seriously, weeks on end now stuck in my brain on a seemingly endless loop.
Spoiler… look away…. don’t peek! Turn back! You’ve been warned!
Ghost Town by The Specials. It echoes and replays in my head repeatedly. It came out in the very late 70s. I owned that record on vinyl. ’79 I believe. I was 15 / 16. I listened repeatedly. It dug in deep. I can mimic all of the vocals easily by deep memory.
I can listen to old songs I loved as a kid for pleasure and no harm done except for nostalgic glow and not get infected, but Ghost Town has me very discombobulated and extremely annoyed.
A very good song I like that is stuck on repeat in my brain for several weeks. I get earworms hard and unrelenting. It is my curse.
The only workable cure is to infect yourself with a new one that will hopefully burn itself out soon. I am now subjecting myself with the catchiest music I can think of.
Hopefully one will dislodge it and not get stuck on repeat forever once again.
I have a question burning for the general audience for tomorrow’s open thread. Why do you live where you live?
Here, you can have my earworm that I’ve been infected with for the last 10 days or so. I don’t mind. 😛 😛
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LswzdzF-QE
It’s the “Not a wink” part that my brain can’t let go of. It waits, anticipating….whose voice is that? Is there someone else singing it, or is it the same singer?
And what did she do?!
I don’t think I’ve ever had an earworm lasting longer than a few hours. I didn’t know that was even possible.
Health authorities are strongly suggesting masking up in public spaces once again because of flu, Covid, and RSV.
I never stopped. I knew (well *knew* is too strong, but highly suspected that Covid would become endemic) that masking was the prudent choice going forward.
There is no way I am going into a public building frequented by the greater unwashed without a mask. Grocery store, bank, office – fuck, yeah, I’m wearing a mask. All y’all are potential vectors I want no part of.
Being sick sucks. I had a substantial slice of my face cut off and that skin replaced by skin harvested off my butt. That was extraordinarily uncool and really unpleasant. The slice cut off my face was, by definition, cancerous.
A mildish melanoma by any standard, but it freaked me out hard. There is no way for my brain to low-ball “you have cancer” even of the mildest variety.
Yeah, I’m wearing a mask indoors in public areas for the rest of my life, and I absolutely do not care one fucking whit if you think that is odd, questionable, overcautious, stupid, weird. Your opinion does not matter when it comes to my use of prophylaxis measures. That is not your business and I don’t care to hear your thoughts on the matter. I will flatly ignore you and think you are an asshole. In fact if you question my choice I will sass back at you hard and flatly state “None of your fucking business. Leave me alone, please.”
In two years I have only needed to say that only twice. One Karen and one Ken.
Given the currently ongoing tripledemic, my instincts/impulses/choice was right and you were distinctly wrong. Ongoing indoor masking is a public good.
I have zero desire to catch your infectious shit, and I am adamant that you will not catch mine if I am contagious to the best of my ability.
@Kylopod:
Oh, dear Odin, an earworm can last much, much longer than that. You sweet summer child.
This particular instance is intense. In the early phases it is kinda pleasurable. A song you like playing on a loop in your head. Usually, for me, snippets of that song I really like.
It isn’t constant. If your brain is engaged in a mentally stimulating exercise it quiets. But the moment your brain shifts back into neutral it kicks in again. It is maddening.
The Bush administration era white and black sites used music as torture. They would blast one song into your cell on repeat for 72 hours or however long it took until it drove you nuts. It was CIA approved as a method to break someone down. Not as physically nasty as waterboarding, but almost as invasive.
You are in a cell for three days and Barbie Girl by Aqua plays on repeat every second straight at mean 120 decibels. You will go insane.
(BTW, a great karaoke song given you have a good partner.)
One time in my late 20s I had The Jackson Five’s “ABC-123” running in a loop in my head for two weeks plus. I couldn’t stop it. Well, I could if I concentrated, but a few seconds after I stopped it would kick in again unprompted. It was extremely annoying. I felt helpless and bereft. I was stuck.
Will this never stop?
One day it did and I have zero clue why. Thank Freya!
When I shift my brain into neutral, I want neutral, not some imposed soundtrack.
@de stijl: Did you ever see Mel Brooks’ High Anxiety? Remember this scene?
@Kylopod:
Nice clip. Oddly apt, but way too concentrated in time. A persistent earworm plays out longer. It in insistent and inexorable. Not there when you are concentrated on a task but the second you back off that and lean back and relax, it kicks in again – “Do you remember the good old days before the Ghost Town?” sung in Terry Hall’s high register voice is just there unprompted. Waiting.
There is a part of my brain that is stuck and broadcasts what it is stuck on to the rest of my conscious brain unprompted and unsolicited.
You can’t live your life concentrated on a task every waking minute. That would be too mentally exhausting. You need to relax and unclench and let go. That is when the earworm strikes hardest!
It disrupts your mental downtime and inserts itself intrusively. I do not want it, in fact the opposite, but it kicks in anyway. You are walking to the kitchen and it kicks in. You are urinating into the toilet bowl and find yourself singing along.
It inserts itself insidiously.
—–
I might have silenced it for now. You know how? Listening to other songs off the same album I know by heart. The Specials kick ass in my book!
Right now, if I lean back and let me body and brain relax I hear nothing. Blessed silence, hallelujah!
I’m not greedy – let’s re-evaluate tomorrow morning. Be cautious, fool!