Wednesday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Wednesday, March 1, 2023
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74 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Finally found something to start the conversation:
Thoughts anyone?
Given the recent “revelations” regarding Fox News with regard to sharing info with the Trump campaign, why should they be allowed to retain their White House Press credentials?
They are clearly not a news organization – and they themselves make this claim in court.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: If Trump runs, that effectively disarms the “he’s too old” crowd.
Biden is in far, far better physical and mental condition than Trump, and is essentially the same age.
@Tony W: Not all of us. I will continue to think that BOTH are too old. But nobody’s cared what I think about a lot of stuff for a long time (most of my life, at a guess).
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Someone Better is always my preferred option. I just am struggling to think of who right now. Not just who would be better once in the White House, but who would be better positioned to win.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Well we do have Marianne Williamson and I guess she is some type of free-thinker.
Leaving aside Joe’s age, what is the reason another Dem should challenge him. His first two years in office were pretty successful and delivered something on most Dem priorities. Only the Dem/Socialist wing of the party has any reason to be disappointed and a challenge from the far left would likely be welcomed by Biden. He could run as a moderate and campaign against both the leftist and the RW loonies in the house, until TFG or DeSantis prevails for the R nomination.
The problem of Joe’s age is just something we’re stuck with and remember that in 2020, Joe’s leading challenger was Bernie. In 2020 none of the other Dem candidates distinguished themselves in a manner that says, this is the person who we want to step up and take the 24 or 28 nomination.
The names that keep popping up as the next generation of potential Dem prez candidates, are governors or ex-govs that would need to be on the campaign trail a few months ago, gathering support and building name recognition. It’s too late for that now.
One thought that I have regretfully entertained, is that Joe’s age is only a fairly small part of the problem, with the larger concern being Harris.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: So, old people shouldn’t run for office, regardless of their recent accomplishments? Should I be free to decide that some job applicant is just too old and refuse them an interview once I see their birth date?
If Biden is slipping, like Feinstein, then he shouldn’t run and those around should step in. But where is the evidence that this is happening? Where is the evidence that he is unable to get things done? Because I can point to a hell of a lot of evidence that the old folks have accomplished an amazing amount with only the slimmest majorities.
It’s interesting to me that the statements always stop with, “He’s too old to run” and never go on with, “ and anyway, X would make a much better candidate”. Who is X in that equation?
Add one more near miss to the pile. This time a JetBlue regional jet came close to landing on top of a private jet.
I don’t know if this means there’s been an unusual spate of carelessness, or whether things just get more attention now and there are more tools to detect them (like the flight tracking apps).
I do hope relevant authorities are looking into the matter. If such incidents are increasing, then eventually chances are someone will crash their jet into someone else’s.
Next time deSantis (small d energy) denigrates Drag Performers, someone should ask him about HIS high heels.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1630905249463521281
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again…I didn’t want Biden as POTUS to begin with, and don’t want him to run again. He’s done a fantastic job. Take the win and retire. He’ll be remembered as one of the most significant politicians in history.
Trump is a loser, and deSantis is a fuqing weirdo who won’t do well on the Nat’l stage.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: Joe all the way.
@daryl and his brother darryl: Whoa. Bit more obvious than TFG’s lifts. And you wouldn’t want to have to walk down a wheel chair ramp in either. But I bet he’s got strong, manly ankles.
Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for Bankman-Fried.
All the good deals are being scooped up by his partners in crime.
@Kathy:
That happened about 20 miles south of me. Big news of the day in these parts.
It seems the Learjet pilot was totally at fault. He received the instructions from the tower, repeated them, and then disobeyed them.
I wonder how Mr. Free Speech will handle this
China’s CCP warns Elon Musk against sharing Wuhan lab leak report
@daryl and his brother darryl:
I’m with you 50%. I didn’t want him as the nominee in 2020, and part of the reason was that I anticipated a situation like this if he were to win–where a lot of people would think he shouldn’t run for a second term, due purely to his age.
However, now that we’re here, I think he’s the best shot we’ve got. There’s a big advantage to incumbency. (Fun fact: Since 1928, only once has a non-incumbent from the president’s party won a presidential election, in 1988.) As you acknowledge, he’s got an impressive record to run on. His low approval ratings are a concern, and they will have to improve in order for him to win again, but that’s happened before with previous presidents–including Obama, Clinton, and Reagan. (Reagan was at 35% according to at least one Gallup poll in early 1983. And there were a lot of people thinking he shouldn’t run due to his age. Granted he was a lot younger than Biden is now, but the standards of what’s considered “too old” have shifted.)
Even if Biden remains unpopular in 2024, I’m not sure switching to a different candidate would necessarily give us an advantage, and that’s without even getting into the question of who that candidate would be. While Harris is the likeliest choice, I don’t think she’d get it by acclimation if Biden were to step aside; it would almost certainly become a competitive primary with other candidates, which is definitely not what we need right now. We may bitch a lot, but at this point the party is pretty well-unified around Joe.
Say it ain’t so!
Rare whale feeding technique could explain tales of mythical sea creature – video
Interesting, but I’m not all that surprised.
One problem the Dems have when it comes to building up a “deep bench” of future candidates relates to modern polarization. Some of the brightest stars to emerge from 2022–Gretchen Whitmer, Raphael Warnock, John Fetterman, Mark Kelly–are holding onto valuable seats that the Dems are in danger of losing if any of them were to seek higher office. Indeed, part of their appeal is the fact that they’ve been able to win in purple states that have become key battlegrounds in presidential elections. Are we going to forever be stuck with figures like Gavin Newsom?
@daryl and his brother darryl:
The cynical take is hubris and power lust don’t work that way.
The charitable one is that it’s hard to leave the work to others, even when you know you can’t help. This happens to me when we’re working late on a proposal. I’ve finished my part, it’s been checked, but some of the rest are still hard at it. I can’t help them, there’s nothing to gain or add by staying, but I don’t feel right just leaving.
@daryl and his brother darryl:
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
You can’t beat someone with no one, so who would be this magical Democrat that could take on Trump and win? Give me a name. Any name that could/would win the nomination and beat Trump in the electoral college.
Just one.
Give me a name.
@OzarkHillbilly:
The family that prays together slays together.
@Kylopod:
Since many governors are term limited, that frees those to run for higher office. Senators and congress critters from barely purple states are an issue.
@Sleeping Dog: I tend to agree with you about VP Harris. She just doesn’t seem to light anyone’s fire even though she is a successful person. But how would it look if another person is the VP candidate and what would be the fallout?
Marjorie Taylor Greene is demanding safe spaces for conservatives. She claims she was attacked verbally by an insane woman and her son in a restaurant Monday night.
Yeah, count me among those who think wishing for a different D candidate than Biden to be more than a bit silly.
There’s all the stuff about incumbency. And about who else might be running. And then the polls. Here’s the thing: At this point in the cycle, there are plenty of those on the left who are unhappy that isn’t doing enough. You can see this in other polling. So they don’t answer “Approve” to the pollsters, they answer “Disapprove”.
These people will never, ever vote for Trump. They might, in some circumstances, vote for Ralph Nader (ahem!). But not in super large numbers, and definitely not if Trump is running. And, as we close in on the next election, they will reconcile themselves with the shortcomings they perceive in and start answering polls as “Approve”.
I am very impressed with Biden’s skill at “doing by not doing”. He doesn’t seem to be doing much, and yet lots of stuff that is favorable is happening.
@EddieInCA: Frankly, your point is the same objection I have to the article I posted, but the author suggested Whitmer. That’s one among 3 (IIRC) he named.
@CSK: I’m sure people have said the same thing about MTG when she’s dined out with HER son. A person in public life should be thicker skinned. 🙁
@CSK:
In 1991, a 737 crashed into a commuter plane while landing at LAX
This gives one an idea how bad it can be.
@CSK:
Don’t forget MTG first came to prominence via online videos of her chasing people around in the streets with a camera demanding they answer her complaints.
@Jay L Gischer:
Or they might not vote at all. But the same dynamic you mention with Green Party voters applies.
Biden is not the sort of candidate who generates excitement, but in 2020 the enthusiasm against Trump worked to his advantage. If the GOP nominee is DeSantis, I think a lot of the same fear and revulsion we saw against Trump would easily transfer over to him. Only if we get a Nikki Haley or Chris Sununu would that effect subside. But I don’t see that as likely to happen.
@Kathy:
Awful, but it still pales in comparison to Tenerife in 1977.
@Just nutha:
I’m certain they have.
@Stormy Dragon:
She has no self-awareness.
@CSK:
Delete. Repetition.
@Kylopod:
On the other side of the equation, having a Haley or Sununu would be the gateway for people like Dr. Joyner who love the policies but hate the overtness to return to the party from voting for Democrats. For people who would prefer more liberal/progressive government, the GQP running Trump, DeSantis, Cruz, or the like may well be essential to making whatever progress is to be had politically.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
OTOH, less crazy candidates might, over time, help the party to come round to less crazy policies. And you can even hope that with less crazy policies, the crazier elements of the base might bugger off.
Otherwise, you may be looking at about a third of the country being governed by utter nutters for ever; and periodically taking national office.
There is generational turnover; but is that reliable enough, quick enough?
In the UK at least there seems to be some evidence that, post Johnson and Truss, some of the Tory insanity coming off the boil. See likely passing of the Northern Ireland deal with the EU.
Then again, it will take a electoral hammering to finish the job.
And to give me the satisfaction of seeing the bastards utterly humiliated. 🙂
Which looks probable.
Latest poll:
Labour 51%
Conservative 24%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Reform UK 7%
Green 5%
Scottish National Party 3%
*happydance*
@JohnSF:
…the crazier elements of the party might bugger off…
I recall reading somewhere that during the 2016 election, some people in their 40s and 50s in Mississippi who had never before voted in a presidential election hotfooted it to the polls to cast a vote for Trump.
It might work in reverse, except that we KNOW that Trump will run.
@JohnSF:
To some degree, that was what triangulation within the Democratic Party during the late 80s and early 90s was about. On the right, I’m not sure that edging out a splinter is available as was the case with the Dems and the far left. The objection seems to mostly be that the messenger is distasteful, not the message itself. That’s a significant difference.
@CSK:
Dung attracts flies.
See also Conservative appeal to former UKIP voters in 2019.
Will take several electoral cycles to purge the loons, but any steps in that direction probably a good thing.
Of course, you’re going to to have the whole Trump circus back on the road for the near to two years. And clearly as it’s going to Trump or DeSantis in 2024, you need to concentrate on burning the barn down to the ground.
And given Nikki Haley is a compromising trimmer without principles or moral or intellectual integrity, to put it mildly, relief looks some way off.
(Have to say, Sununu is completely off my radar. Has he got any spine?)
And DeSantis would be my bet for 2008, assuming he doesn’t crash and burn this time round.
Hopes for anyone halfway tolerable in 2012?
Man, I am in such a weird headspace. I woke up wanting Talking Heads loud and now. So, I did. (Paused for morning coffee.)
After listening to Talking Heads nonstop for six hours straight my head and thought process is entirely discombobulated.
I did like the first 4 songs of Stop Making Sense then craved 1977 and More Songs About Buildings And Food so I did those, too. Then back.
David Byrne has a very unique way of phrasing and describing things that hits my brain receptors dead center.
If you overindulge that, though, you wander around dumbstruck and spacey. I haven’t had a drink today nor any psilocybin, but my head is spacey and benignly discordant. I feel like I’m on a trip and I am stone sober as far as intake.
Peeking too long into David Byrne’s head all in one go is spooky. Good spooky, but kinda unsettling. “Stop making sense” may be the best advice I’ve ever received.
@JohnSF:
Uh oh! Looks like John messed up the TARDIS controls again!
😀
@de stijl: Stop Making Sense is one of my go-to albums when I can’t decide what I want to listen to.
@Mr. Prosser:
Replacing the VP has happened before. FDR dumped Henry Wallace for Truman, not having any confidence that Wallace could successfully complete FDR’s final term. Roosevelt knew he was dying and wouldn’t complete his 4th and final term.
As far as replacing Harris, her partisans will scream, but how that effects the rest of the party will depend on who his choice is. If he were to do it, he better have that person ready to be introduced to the press before it definitively leaks that he’s replacing Harris. But I don’t believe there will be much of an uproar. Most Dems either won’t care or already believe that Harris is Dan Quayle in high heels and a skirt.
@Mu Yixiao:
Oopsie.
Please excuse me while I consult the Doctor.
Temporal normality will be resumed as soon as possible.
My feeble excuse, I’ve been reviewing the history of events from 2004 to 2016 in Europe, re both Brexit and Ukraine.
Ahem.
….
And DeSantis would be my bet for 2028, assuming he doesn’t crash and burn this time round.
Hopes for anyone halfway tolerable in 2032?
….
*TARDIS reports, temporal continuity now secured. Please sedate the idiot.*
@CSK:
Someone on twitter ran a vid of MTG verbally attacking that high school kid who survived the mass shooting in Fla. Now that was a crazy woman.
@JohnSF:
Sununu is one of the most popular governors in the country. He’s described by most pundits as a moderate Republican. I give him credit for not being able to stomach Trump.
@de stijl: I saw the Heads live in Charlottesville, VA in the Fall of ’82. Believe it was the “Stop Making Sense” tour. Small-ish venue, about 7000. Wonderful show, and Tina Weymouth had this 19 year old’s heart immediately.
Correction. Fall of ’83 and I was 20. Still have the ticket stub, hence the correction.
@JohnSF:
True, but Republican never Trumpers would probably come back to the party with her as the face of the post-Trump party of Qanon.
It’s probably worse than either of us realize.
There’s a piece on NPR on the animal spillover origin of the trump virus.
@Sleeping Dog:
That wasn’t the reason he dumped him. He dumped him because he was seen by the party elders at the convention as too left-wing. Truman was seen as a compromise choice between the Dixiecrats and the lefties.
@JohnSF:
I was actually a little surprised by one point she made during her announcement: that the Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections. That’s something Dems talk about all the time but which Republicans rarely bring up. You’d think an admission like that would be followed by an explanation of how she’d be different than other Republicans. But no–her rhetoric was pretty much the same old crap (stop runaway government spending, secure the border, restore American pride, etc.) that Republicans have been running on in every cycle in recent memory. The only thing she had to offer as to how she differed from recent Republican candidates was her age, gender, and race. That was it. Taken at face value, she was saying the GOP’s fundamental problem with the electorate is that they’re nominating too many old white guys–literally nothing else.
He’s criticized Trump a little more than Haley. But in my view, he seems every bit as calculating–he just happens to be in a bluish state where he’s still eligible for reelection (there are no term limits in NH), and sounding too pro-Trump could damage him there, if an attempt to seek the presidential nomination fails.
@Kylopod:
Well, If’n I were an American, my basic requirement for an “acceptable” Republican would be accepting the validity of the 2020 election of Joe Biden, and condemning those who connived at or looked away from Jan 6 and related “election denialism”.
But seeing as that would mean getting crosswise of Fox News and the “base”, fat chance of that, for a long time.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Likely some; but I’ve seen quite a few never-Trumpers on Twitter whose contempt for Haley is undisguised.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: “If approached deftly, the gambit could benefit the president, the party, and even the challenger’s own standing, win or lose.”
Translation: “I’m bored, and I’m far too lazy to write about anything important like policy. Somebody destroy their political life and possibly the country and run against Biden so I have something fun to write about!”
@CSK: “She claims she was attacked verbally by an insane woman and her son in a restaurant Monday night.”
…and then realized she had pulled out her mirror to check her lipstick.
@de stijl:
Talking Heads- Stop Making Sense is what first did it for me with live albums. I really didn’t see the appeal before it.
A close second, Tom Petty- Pack Up the Plantation.
Replacing Harris would send the message that Black women need not apply, basically insulting not just a core constituency but some of the most active Democratic grassroots workers.
That idea is DOA. I just cannot see it happening, unless she’s replaced by Stacey Abrams.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Not that I wish death upon Joe Biden, but…
I really think the best (defined as funniest) outcome would be both Biden and Trump dying of old age issues in October 2024, and having America vote on their favorite dead candidate.
(A living Trump losing to a dead Biden would also be delightful, but I fear too many people wouldn’t want to vote for a corpse).
@Jen: Given how much Americans seem to hate whoever the VP is, I really wonder why Harris wanted to be VP.
Biden was the only VP in my the past 50 years that wasn’t viewed as a complete lightweight, and we really have The Onion to thank for that.
I guess Cheney was thought of as the evil force behind the lightweight George W. Bush… not a particularly pleasing counter example.
@EddieInCA:
No one can come up with an alternative to Biden who can win a primary and beat Trump???
Not one?
Then let’s shut the fuck up about Biden not running again.
At least until ONE alternative can be identified.
@Gustopher: In what universe was Al Gore viewed as a lightweight? Or, for that matter, George H.W. Bush?
@de stijl:
Just for your enjoyment.
@Kathy: Good article. I’ve for many months, at someone’s recommendation, been reading Marginal Revolution and Volokh Conspiracy. I was looking for something to replace TAC when they went subscription.
At MR and VC front pagers and commenters often apply legal and philosophical arguments to technical questions, with predictable results. DOE has some technical expertise, in their area. The FBI may be useful for gaining information. But why does either offer an opinion on virology? And why does anyone publish an opinion that reads, “with low confidence … may” have?
I recall that some years ago the Kochs hired a physicist to review the literature on climate change. He seemed to go in with an attitude of, “I’ll straighten them out, I’m a PHYSICIST.” I guess to the Kochs’ credit they paid him after he came back with a report that said, “Hey, those climatology guys know what they’re doing.”
@dazedandconfused:
Dude! I am halfway between saying “Fuck you!” and “Thank You!’ for that link.
That was incredibly disturbing, a bit triggering, and really funny. Whoever spliced that together deserves a Grammy.
Earlier today I was sitting in my chair thinking to myself that I never want to be a situation in the future where I am obligated to say “My God, what have I done!”
Texas Republican wants ISPs to block a wide range of abortion websites
I’ll just leave y’all to read or not (it’s Ars Technica). Me? After reading it, I’m going to go pour another scotch and watch cute animal videos on YouTube. Maybe I can drink enough to forget that Texas exists.
@EddieInCA:
Broadly speaking I think either Newsome or Pritzker would probably fit at least part of that bill? The question I have is, could either of those two mount an effectively half-ass campaign that 1. doesn’t screw up Biden’s reelection, 2. draws Republican fire away from Biden, and 3. doesn’t completely destroy their own chances next time around.
Personally, I’d rather Pritzger keep being the Governor. He’d doing a decent job with the all the shit sandwiches we got around here.
OH! and happy days! We got rid of Lightfoot and her huge pen1s! Now we just got to make sure the morons here don’t elect Vallus on his platform of killing Black and Queer kids.
@gVOR08:
I’m not sure what the DOE brings. The FBI, though, could find documents stating the virology lab in Wuhan had samples of SARS-CoV-2 days, weeks, or months prior to the first known outbreak.
Unless they also find documents detailing how and when a leak happened, though, merely having the samples is not enough, if they even had them.
The other thing is that scientists tracing the possible path from the wet market, do make their evidence and research public.
I suppose a researcher, orderly, or even a janitor, might have stolen an infected animal from the lab to sell at the market. Maybe that qualifies as a lab leak, if it happened.
You know, come countries allow young mothers convicted of crimes to keep their infants with them until they turn 12 to 24 months old.
@Gustopher:
2004 Missouri senate race. John Ashcroft lost to the corpse of Mel Carnahan who was killed in plane crash while campaigning.
@Sleeping Dog: That was 2000.
@Kathy:
A BBC reported preliminary report.
About the only thing that stands out to me is the “line up and wait” mention. It should have been “taxi into position and hold.” If the controller did not use that they’ll be hearing about it. That would not excuse the pilot, not one bit.
The Lear 60 is a two-pilot bird so that’s still an inadequate explanation. It’s a bit hard to imagine two pilots simultaneously hallucinating a TO clearance. I see no regulation that can prevent a duel brain-failure. Some things just can’t be fixed.
@JohnSF:
So in other words, there are none. Zero. Nada. Quit dropping quarters in the vending machine, there’s no candy in it.
@wr: I didn’t say that; the author of the article did. I posted the article to start an argument. My job here is done.
@wr: From back in the defensive zone, he shoots, HE SCOOOOORRRRZZZZ!