2008 Electoral College Maps
Stephen Green has gotten decidedly ahead of the curve, noodling out some Electoral College scenarios for a McCain-Obama matchup in November.
He figures 41 states are already in the bag for one party, meaning the race starts as a virtual tie of 229 for the GOP and 227 for the Democrats. That means a best case scenario for McCain at 311 Electoral Votes to 227 for Obama and Obama’s best case is a 309-229 win.
Needless to say, it’s way too early to predict this with any confidence. Indeed, it’s not a lead pipe cinch that Obama is the Democratic nominee, although it’s certainly starting to look that way.
My gut tells me that Obama would have a decided advantage over McCain and McCain would have a small advantage over Clinton but there are too many unknown variables. And I’m not sure that the 2000 and 2004 baselines will apply with two moderates facing off.