Giuliani and Clinton Lead in Latest Gallup Poll
Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton maintain their position as frontrunners in the latest Gallup poll, with Barack Obama holding steady, John McCain continuing in free fall, and Fred Thompson tied for third.
Jeffrey Jones reports, “The April 2-5 Gallup Poll finds 38% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favoring Giuliani for the 2008 nomination, well ahead of his closest pursuer, McCain (16%). Two unannounced but potential candidates — Gingrich and Thompson — tie for third at 10%. The remaining 10 candidates tested in the poll all score below 10%, led by Mitt Romney at 6%.” For McCain, this marks “his lowest level of support since Gallup began tracking preferences in November 2006. His high water mark was 28% in December, but his support dropped to an average of 21% in two March polls.”
The GOP trend looks like this:
Frank Newport analyzes the other side of the race: “Sen. Hillary Clinton remains the dominant presidential front-runner among Democrats nationally, with twice the support as her nearest challenger. Sen. Barack Obama, former Sen. John Edwards, and former Vice President Al Gore are tightly bunched in second place, with all other candidates in low single digits.”
What’s particularly striking is that, while Obama has been widely seen as the main challenger to Clinton, he’s actually in a dead heat with Gore and Edwards for that position. Even more interesting: “If Gore is removed from the ballot and his supporters’ second-place choices substituted, Clinton’s lead becomes even more dominant, with Obama and Edwards tied far behind.”
The nomination likely won’t be decided for a year, so there’s still plenty of time for these numbers to change.