Global Warming or Natural Cycles?
WASHINGTONÃ¢€”The current period of above-average hurricane activity could last another 20 years or even longer, according to the director of the National Hurricane Center.
“The 1940s through the 1960s experienced an above-average number of major hurricanes, while the 1970s into the mid-1990s averaged fewer hurricanes,” said NHC Director Max Mayfield on Tuesday.
“The current period of heightened activity could last another 10 to 20 years or more. This increased activity is due to natural cycles of hurricane activity, driven by the Atlantic Ocean itself along with the atmosphere above it,” he told the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee’s Subcommittee on Disaster Prevention and Prediction.
With regards to more severe storms, you’ll note that the recent research starts in the 1970’s and runs to the present. Again, this is a problem with data that exhibits cycles and there is too short of a time period. You could end up with a spurious trend.
Here is another interesting bit of information.
Dr. Gray disagrees with other experts who said the power of these storms is related to global warming. He said there is simply no proof of that.
He said 1933 was a very active season, similar to this year’s season. There were 21 named storms in 1933.–emphasis added
In other words, this level of hurricane activity is not unprecedented.