House Will Take Up Repeal Of ObamaCare Before State Of The Union

The next round in the health care reform wars is about to start.

The new Republican House looks likely to take its first shot against the President very early in the new term:

The incoming chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee said Sunday that Republicans will bring up a healthcare repeal measure before President Obama even delivers his State of the Union address this month.

“I think there wil be a significant number of Democrats who will join us,” Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) said on “Fox News Sunday.”

Upton said that leaders are counting on Democrats who voted against the massive healthcare reform package to do so again, coupled with greater GOP numbers.

“I don’t think we’re going to be that far off from having the votes to override a veto,” he said.

That last part is actually laughable. Leaving aside the fact that ObamaCare repeal would never get the 67 votes needed for an override in the Senate, House Republicans would need 290 votes to override a Presidential veto, which means they’d need to find 42 Democrats willing to override a Presidential veto of the biggest piece of legislation of his Presidency. That isn’t going to happen.

Steven Benan gets it right, I think, when he says that this is largely for show:

There’s almost certainly a realization on everyone’s part that House Republicans are doing this for show. If passed, their repeal measure can’t pass the Senate, and wouldn’t overcome a veto. The GOP wants to pursue repeal just so they can say they pursued repeal. This isn’t going to be policymaking from responsible, problem-solving lawmakers; this is going to be a public-relations stunt. We can probably expect quite a bit of this over the next two years — Republicans are great at campaigning, but tend to have trouble governing once the election has come and gone.

Perhaps, but Benan misses the rest of what Upton said this morning:

After that, Upton said, House Republicans will work on chipping away the healthcare bill piece by piece, such as the 1099 requirements and individual mandates.

Upton also said that the Stupak language — an executive order from Obama to ensure that public dollars wouldn’t be used to fund abortions — will be taken up early as a separate bill.

Some of these provisions, like repealing the onerous and unnecessary 1099 reporting requirements which will hit small businesses most directly, actually have a fairly decent chance of making it through both the House and the Senate if put up as individual bills. What President Obama does with them will then be his choice, but if the GOP plays its cards right on this piece-by-piece strategy rather than going for the Hail Mary Pass of a complete repeal that has no chance of succeeding, they might actually grab a few victories over the next two years.

FILED UNDER: Barack Obama, Congress, Health Care, Politicians, US Politics
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020.

Comments

  1. Chad S says:

    I’d be shocked if anything towards repealing ACA, even in parts, ever makes it to Obama’s desk. The Dems will pull a DeMint/Coburn and slap holds on everything, there’s not 60 votes to break those. I’m positive that they’ll cut some deals on minor tweaks in exchange for passing the debt ceiling and the budget though.

  2. Dave says:

    If the “small victories” amount to little more than altering some small business reporting requirements then I’m sure Obama can rest easy knowing his health care legacy will remain intact.

  3. steve says:

    There were already several attempts to amend the 1099 requirements. These were shot down by Republicans. I expect that Republicans will offer similar amendments that go through this time. Not really sure how onerous they are anyway, but then my corporation has everything on the computer so it is just a couple of buttons being pushed.

    Steve

  4. Obama Rules says:

    It doesnt mattwer wat the Repugs do, they lost! NO way it ever gets repealed. They wold repeal medicare and SS too if they could. Instead of spending money on the army spend on the people. Minoritys have been shaftd the entire history of this crummy country now its our turn for payback. The teabaggers shot their entire stash and it wasnt enuff, time they dried up and blowed away.

    Obama and Dem care is here to stay. If it costs a few more $$$ from some rich old white dudes cry me a river. Saving the papersork is just throwing itin a drawer, not hard. Like the guy said it wont, just hit a few extra buttons. If the democrats want to change afew things to make it look more OK to those losers good. If not too bad.

    The people leaveing the Admin did their work and a great job they did wit the stimulus and saving some money for the workers not the fatcat Wall st guys that ran the banks and the morgage companies to the ground. Repubs need to be lined up and shipped somewhere, anywher but away from here.

  5. Tano says:

    “… repealing the onerous and unnecessary 1099 reporting requirements…actually have a fairly decent chance of making it through both the House and the Senate if put up as individual bills.”

    Ya think? You realize, of course, that the lame duck was prepared to pass that, but it was the Republicans who opposed it, precisely because they wanted to do it themselves in the new Congress, to give themselves some momentum…

    The core dynamic that will be playing out will be the GOP leadership finding all manner of ways to throw crumbs to the Tea Partiers while managing to keep them from blowing up the place.

  6. Axel Edgren says:

    I hope both parties are ready to at least try to improve the bill from different angles. The thing is that as long as the GOP will have repeal as their main priority, one has to wonder if what they are trying to do at any given time is active sabotage or not.

  7. g-a-y r-i-n-o says:

    9.8% … and rising!

  8. sam says:

    ” but if the GOP plays its cards right on this piece-by-piece strategy rather than going for the Hail Mary Pass of a complete repeal that has no chance of succeeding, they might actually grab a few victories over the next two years.”

    Not sure what the weight of a “victory” would be if the president says, “Yeah, I was prepared to sign a bill changing that (eg, the 1099 requirement) last year, but the Republicans prevented the bill from reaching my desk (for whatever sillyass political point they think they were making). I’d be happy to sign such a bill now.” Cue esplodin’ heads in the GOP cloakroom as they realize they’ve been outmaneuvered.

  9. An Interested Party says:

    “…but if the GOP plays its cards right on this piece-by-piece strategy rather than going for the Hail Mary Pass of a complete repeal that has no chance of succeeding, they might actually grab a few victories over the next two years.”

    The above seems in direct contradiction to the following, which certainly seems true…

    “…Republicans are great at campaigning, but tend to have trouble governing once the election has come and gone.”

    “9.8% … and rising!”

    This from someone who was gloating a while back that DADT repeal wasn’t goint to happen…so much for that bold prediction…

  10. athiest hater says:

    9.8% … and rising to 10.9%

  11. The Fop says:

    Obama Rules perfectly sums up what it means to be a modern day liberal. It’s all about hating “this crummy country”, hating White people, and demanding “payback” for minorities.

    The fact that non-White Chinese, Korean, Indian, Pakistani, Phillipino immigrants who have come to America over the past 30 years have been subjected to less prejudice than Italian and Irish immigrants who came here during the 19th Century is obviously lost on him/her.

    It didn’t take long for the American people to see what Obama was all about, which is why Democrats suffered their worst midterm losses in over 60 years. The Tea Party is just starting to flex it’s muscles. They will prove to be the most powerfull force in American politics in the 21st Century. Obama Rules better start practicing his/her cries of “America sucks, there’s no hope for this country” as the Tea Party ushers in a renaissance for our founding father’s small government principles.

  12. athiest hater says:

    Fop,

    And Palin will win 40 states in 2012 too. Book it

  13. K says:

    this is largely for show:

    Ya think? Rather like those Democrat motions to defund the Iraq war.

  14. anjin-san says:

    > Obama Rules perfectly sums up what it means to be a modern day liberal

    Actually more like summing up what it means to be a right wing troll pretending to be an Obama supporter. Happy New Year.

  15. gk1 says:

    This is a smart political step coming out of the gate. The republicans will be on record as to what they want to do. They now have power to assign Darryl Issa to overlook how obamacare is being implemented. Any mistakes made or cost over runs will be magnified to the democrats detriment while the republicans put up amendments to defund or otherwise stall obamacare. Who knows they might actually stumble on reforming healthcare along the way?

  16. Thucydides says:

    Anjin-san;

    As a Canadian who peruses various US media and websites, I have to say that “Obama Rules” post tracks perfectly with what I see in the Liberal/Democrat media/blog universe.

    Since I am considering expanding my business into the American market, stuff like that is convincing me to stay far away from Blue States, or even pockets of “Blue” voters in the urbanized portions of Red and Purple states.

    Be careful what you say on the Internet. People are paying attention and making decisions based on what they see…

  17. BooMushroom says:

    Bringing a vote on repeal of Obamacare is a win-win for the Republicans. Either it passes and the crap sandwich is off the table, or THE DEMOCRATS HAVE TO VOTE FOR IT AGAIN, against the wishes of their constituents, the Constitution, and the American People.

    And if repeal passes, and is vetoed by Obama, then he will lose support from his party. So it’s a win-win-win 🙂

  18. anjin-san says:

    > I have to say that “Obama Rules” post tracks perfectly with what I see in the Liberal/Democrat media/blog universe.

    Perhaps you could send some links to these postings with Democrats who are barely literate saying America is a crummy country. I would be interested to see them.

    As for your business expansion, I live in the SF Bay Area, probably the most liberal metropolitan area in the country. We also have more economic muscle here in our area than most entire red states can claim. Do you really base your business decisions on what people post on blogs? Wow. Well, like you said, be careful what you say on the internet, because most serious investors would probably write you off based on that one comment.

  19. Warren says:

    The Republicans need to abolish all exemptions from the Healthcare Bill for Unions and friends of the Administration. Then we’ll see how many Dems vote against it.

  20. MarkJ says:

    The Republican move to repeal Obamacare makes perfect sense: they know they can’t repeal it immediately. However what the GOP can, and will, do is force the Democrats, and Obama in particular, to repeatedly defend their steaming pile of legislative Scheisse against all logic.

    Even better, it’ll put Obama in the position of telling the American people, “Obamacare? Hey, that’s not a steaming pile of s*** you see. It’s a delicious Western omelette. And who are you gonna believe? Me or your lying racist eyes?”

    Oh yeah, Barry, good luck with alllllllllllll that. (*Seinfeld eye roll*).

  21. steve says:

    “The Republican move to repeal Obamacare makes perfect sense: they know they can’t repeal it immediately.”

    Most of the individual parts of the bill poll positively. It will play well with the base, not sure about everyone else. Even if they succeed, they are still left with reforming Medicare, for which they have no real plan.

    Steve

  22. Dodd says:

    This isn’t going to be policymaking from responsible, problem-solving lawmakers; this is going to be a public-relations stunt. We can probably expect quite a bit of this over the next two years — Republicans are great at campaigning, but tend to have trouble governing once the election has come and gone.

    The mind boggles.

    Most of the individual parts of the bill poll positively.

    Quite a few do when polled in isolation, sure, but not when pollsters give respondents a chance to also consider the bill’s costs and other downsides of the package.

  23. Chester White says:

    We told these SOBs in the recent election to try to repeal, chip away, stall, derail, defund, fold, spindle, and mutilate this godawful legislation.

    They better by-God try, or we will come back in two years and throw THEIR a$$es out as well.

    We are STEAMING out here.

  24. anjin-san says:

    > We are STEAMING out here.

    Why are you STEAMING Chester? Perhaps you could tell us what exactly you find so ‘godawful” about HCR?

  25. An Interested Party says:

    @The Fop…psst, “Obama Rules” was likely a parody…the excruciating spelling errors are a giveaway…

    “And Palin will win 40 states in 2012 too. Book it.”

    Speaking of parodies….

    “We are STEAMING out here.”

    You will be STEAMING even more when the establishment GOP types in power fail to live up to what the Tea Party crowd wants…

  26. Tano says:

    “Quite a few do when polled in isolation, sure, but not when pollsters give respondents a chance to also consider the bill’s costs and other downsides of the package.”

    Actually, as i am sure you know well, but would never admit, the polling on Obamacare is very consistent. Roughly 40-45 supportive, 55-60 against, BUT of that 55-60%, about 15-20% are opposed because it is NOT LIBERAL ENOUGH.

    Bottom line, a consistent majority have supported, all along, including now, Obamacare or something more liberal.

  27. sam says:

    @MarkJ

    ” However what the GOP can, and will, do is force the Democrats, and Obama in particular, to repeatedly defend their steaming pile of legislative Scheisse against all logic”

    That might not be as hard as you seem to think:

    The January Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, conducted before the Massachusetts Senate vote, finds opinion is divided when it comes to the hotly debated legislation, with 42 percent supporting the proposals in the Congress, 41 percent opposing them and 16 percent withholding judgment. However, a different and more positive picture emerged when we examined the public’s awareness of, and reactions to, major provisions included in the bills. Majorities reported feeling more favorable toward the proposed legislation after learning about many of the key elements, with the notable exceptions of the individual mandate and the overall price tag.

    For example, after hearing that tax credits would be available to small businesses that want to offer coverage to their employees, 73 percent said it made them more supportive of the legislation. Sixty-seven percent said they were more supportive when they heard that the legislation included health insurance exchanges, and 63 percent felt that way after being told that people could no longer be denied coverage because of pre-existing conditions. Sixty percent were more supportive after hearing that the legislation would help close the Medicare “doughnut hole” so that seniors would no longer face a period of having to pay the full cost of their medicines. Of the 27 elements of the legislation tested in the poll, 17 moved a majority to feel more positively about the bills and two moved a majority to be more negative. [Source]

    I notice that an announcement is now running on TV informing seniors of the closing of the donut hole in Medicare D coverage. I’d expect to see more such announcements in the future on the specific, and popular, parts of HCR.

  28. Dodd says:

    Actually, as i am sure you know well, but would never admit, the polling on Obamacare is very consistent. Roughly 40-45 supportive, 55-60 against, BUT of that 55-60%, about 15-20% are opposed because it is NOT LIBERAL ENOUGH.

    Bottom line, a consistent majority have supported, all along, including now, Obamacare or something more liberal.

    What I know, and have no trouble admitting, is that that’s some pretty serious spin. I was quite specific about the actual facts: Taken individually, quite a few HCR policies are popular. But taken as a whole (i.e., costs considered as well), it doesn’t do nearly so well. And, of course, the statistic you cite (without attribution), comes from a months-old, heavily skewed online(!) poll.

    More current polling shows support for outright repeal at ~60% among likely voters. You wouldn’t seriously suggest that your 15-20% want the law repealed rather than “fixed” to be more to their liking, would you?

    You can comfort yourself all you like that the real reason HCR is so unpopular is that the Silent Liberal Majority actually really likes it and just wants us to be more like Canada, but inconvenient facts are stubborn.

  29. Grewgills says:

    Since the substantive parts have been covered well…

    As a Canadian who peruses various US media and websites…
    Since I am considering expanding my business into the American market

    LOL

    @The Fop…psst, “Obama Rules” was likely a parody…the excruciating spelling errors are a giveaway…

    AIP…psst, I think they are the same person.

  30. wr says:

    And Dodd gives us the chuckle of the day… criticizing a poster for relying on a “heavily slanted” poll (albeit one whose results have been duplicated elsewhere), and using as proof one done by Rasmussen!

    Coming next: Dodd proves Obama is corrupt by quoting Darrell Issa.

  31. An Interested Party says:

    @Grewgills…sockpuppetry? How sad…

    “You can comfort yourself all you like that the real reason HCR is so unpopular is that the Silent Liberal Majority actually really likes it and just wants us to be more like Canada, but inconvenient facts are stubborn.”

    Well, that would certainly be less delusional than the idea that the GOP will actually be able to do anything to put a substantial dent in HCR…

  32. Dodd says:

    And Dodd gives us the chuckle of the day… criticizing a poster for relying on a “heavily slanted” poll (albeit one whose results have been duplicated elsewhere), and using as proof one done by Rasmussen!

    Funny. You assert (again without a citation) that the skewed poll was replicated elsewhere and resort to a pro forma attack on the source of the poll I linked to — while ignoring that it’s also been replicated elsewhere. Not every pollster asks the specific question as to repeal, but majorities in opposition to the bill have been pretty consistent going all the way back to the debate in Congress.

    There are quite a few polls over the last several months showing majority support for repeal that splits on outright or simply partial repeal. Further, those polls showing splits are themselves split between people who want it repealed and those who want it replaced with diametrically opposed ideas as to the amount of government or market the replacement should favour. I suppose that some of the aforementioned 15-20% fall into the repeal and replace with more government camp, but it’s a weird way to express one’s support of HCR.

    But even if Rasmussen is off by a significant margin on support for repeal, it’s not really relevant to the actual point I made: The consistent trend has been exactly what I said. Ask people in isolation if they like individual parts of the bill and (except for the individual mandate) they poll well. Allow them to consider the total package and the bill’s support drops like a stone.

    Well, that would certainly be less delusional than the idea that the GOP will actually be able to do anything to put a substantial dent in HCR.

    The odds of full repeal getting through a Democratic Senate and overriding a veto are infinitesimal. OTOH, the odds of a bunch of Democratic Senators facing tough 2012 re-election races squirming over the issue are quite good. What may happen in the 113th Congress is still up in the air. Despite the rash of new polls showing a majority of voters think the bill is likely to be repealed, I doubt any serious watcher of politics on either side of the issue thinks this is a one-and-done kind of fight.

  33. sam says:

    “The consistent trend has been exactly what I said. Ask people in isolation if they like individual parts of the bill and (except for the individual mandate) they poll well. Allow them to consider the total package and the bill’s support drops like a stone.”

    But that’s the political nut, right? I can hear the Democrats now: “The Republican’s want to repeal…” List of strongly supported HCR provisions follows. The Senate Democrats are already drawing attention to the filling-the-donut-hole provision, and when you consider that the Republicans benefited greatly from the senior vote last time around, the GOP might find itself in a defensive position pretty quickly.

    As for one-and-done. Well, I never underestimate the ability of the Republicans to shoot themselves in the feets. If the Tea Party fire eaters make a really big deal out of this, you know, a matter of “principle”, and start spending a lot of time fulminating in public, that won’t redound to their political credit what with jobs and the economy numero uno.

    But we’ll see.

  34. mantis says:

    So the Republicans have exempted their proposed health care reform repeal from their deficit rules for legislation. Why? Because repealing would raise the deficit.

    It’s ok, though. Stalwart, sane fiscal conservative Dodd thinks their new attitude is refreshing.