McAuliffe Favored To Win In Virginia

Stu Rothenberg has changed his rating on the Virginia Governor’s race, listing Terry McAuliffe as the favorite to win:

Cuccinelli’s strong TV ads attacking McAuliffe on jobs and China have not helped him transform the race, and the coverage surrounding GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell and the state’s first lady has diluted the impact of Cuccinelli’s message about McAuliffe’s ethics.

Some surveys, including recent polls released by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling and Emerson College Polling Society, show Libertarian Robert Sarvis drawing around 10 percent of the vote. But polling often exaggerates the strength of third-party and independent candidates. In the 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial election, for example, three polls conducted two weeks before the election showed Independent Chris Daggett drawing as much as 20 percent of the vote. He finished with just under 6 percent. (See my October 2009 piece here.)

Of course, it is rare that both major party nominees have such huge flaws, as McAuliffe and Cuccinelli do. In any case, Sarvis is likely to get at least a few points, so the winning candidate in the race won’t need to get 50 percent of the vote.

Given McAuliffe’s advantage and Democrats’ success in defining Cuccinelli as unacceptable, the Democrat now deserves to be regarded as the favorite in the contest. Because of that, we are moving this race from a Tossup to Lean Democrat.

This is subject to change, obviously, but right now this race is clearly moving in McAuliffe’s direction.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2013, Quick Takes, US Politics, , ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020.

Comments

  1. cporet says:

    I still can’t believe that these two are the best we can come up with here in Virginia. I have always intended to vote for McAuliffe while holding my nose.

  2. silverdust says:

    Just watching McAuliffe in action makes me feel like I need a shower. I watched “Fast Terry,” and knew that a guy in business with Hillary’s brother to sell visas in exchange for “investing in the U.S.” was not someone I wanted sitting at the top seat in Richmond. I also don’t want Obamacare, and McAuliffe will go into hyperdrive in implementing it if he becomes governor.

    For cripes’ sake, he’s not even FROM Virginia! Anotehr Hillary-type carpetbagger.

    http://fastterry.com/

  3. Gold Star for Robot Boy says:

    If/when Cooch loses, will right-wing Virginians say the problem was failing to nominate a real conservative?

  4. OldmanRick says:

    Since neither the repugnut nor the jackass candidate seems worth squat, what’s wrong with electing the libertarian?

  5. wr says:

    @OldmanRick: “Since neither the repugnut nor the jackass candidate seems worth squat, what’s wrong with electing the libertarian? ”

    Aside from the fact he’s a member of a party whose entire political philosophy is “me! me! me! I don’t want to share my toys and you can’t make me!” pretty much nothing.

  6. wr says:

    @silverdust: “I also don’t want Obamacare”

    Is that because you hate the idea of having health or insurance, or because you really can’t stand the idea of those people having health insurance?

  7. Barry says:

    @Gold Star for Robot Boy: “If/when Cooch loses, will right-wing Virginians say the problem was failing to nominate a real conservative? ”

    Yes.

    And ‘a carpetbagger came down here and *forced* himself on us!’.

    etc.

  8. Barry says:

    @OldmanRick: “Since neither the repugnut nor the jackass candidate seems worth squat, what’s wrong with electing the libertarian? ”

    Tell you what – get the majority of Repubs to vote for him, and we’ll talk.

  9. Barry says:

    @silverdust: Hey, if you can’t come up with a decent candidate, that’s your problem.