McCain Supporters vs. Giuliani Supporters
Gerry Daly points to an interesting new RT Strategies/Cook Political Report poll showing that, despite Rudi Giuliani being inarguably less conservative than John McCain on the key social issues, the former is more popular among likely Republican voters.
Key figures from the crosstabs [PDF] extracted below.
Personal likeability on a scale of 1-100 (registered voters):
George W. Bush 43.6
John Edwards 49.1
Hillary Clinton 43.9
John McCain 54.8
Rudy Giuliani 59.4
John Kerry 44.9
Granting a margin of error of 4% and other issues* with the poll (three day spread, no likely voter screen applied, etc.), it’s interesting that Giuliani is the most popular of the frequently mentioned 2008 hopefuls, absolutely trouncing Hillary Clinton. McCain isn’t fair behind, either, and is within the margin of error.
Of those registered voters identifying or leaning Republican, here are there first and second choice candidates for 2008:
Giuliani has a surprisingly strong lead over McCain here and no one else is even in the game at this point. Indeed, “Not sure” is the third choice candidate, easily beating out Newt Gingrich.
RedState’s RudyBlogger points to some other differences:
Giuliani voters approve of Bush’s job performance 75-17%, right in line with all Republicans and Republican leaners. McCain voters are fundamentally out of step with the Republican Party, with a tepid 59-28% approval margin. Giuliani voters see the country moving in the right direction by 63-30%. Republicans + leaners say right direction 59-34%. For McCain voters, the right direction/wrong track number is a negative 44-50%. Giuliani voters are more positive towards President Bush personally. 28% of them give the President a thermometer ranking of 90 or above, vs. 20% for McCain supporters.
15% of McCain supporters plan to vote Democrat in this fall’s midterm elections, compared to 2% of Giuliani supporters. 82% of Giuliani supporters consider themselves Republicans. Just 69% of McCain supporters consider themselves Republicans
I’ve long had my doubts as to whether Giuliani or McCain could win the nomination, given the former’s liberal position on the social issues and the latter’s alienation of the base despite a strong conservative voting record. Still, as I’ve argued before, it may well be that his post-9/11 leadership has innoculated Giuliani from the “too liberal” charge. It’ll apparently take more than a trip to Liberty University to rehabilitate McCain.
*Disclosure: My wife is VP at another polling firm.